15:01 .01

That's SCY right?

15:14 and she wins by at least 15 seconds.

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'It never gets easier, you just get crazier.'

Und er - 14:57.98

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10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40

Over.....but only because her attention has been divided a bit with dabbling in the IM and maintaining sprint speed for relays.

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"They're made of latex, not nitroglycerin"

I'm going to go over... just barely... for the reasons mentioned above and also, if I recall correctly, she doesn't consider herself to be a great SCY swimmer (she doesn't think much of her turns).

I'm going to go with a not fully tapered time on this one, think it is just too big a slam dunk in a race where you lap the field.

15;06.38

15:12.05

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"I think I've cracked the code. double letters are cheaters except for perfect squares (a, d, i, p and y). So Leddy isn't a cheater... "

Why wouldn't she be tapered? And for Ledecky, what does a taper really mean? She's broken world and American records without being "tapered."

I think she'll go all-in for this meet, and why not? Her meet prep may be more focused on the shorter races, especially where she adds depth to the relays, but that doesn't mean she won't be ready for a strong mile. In fact, since it's obvious she has the "base" to swim the mile, maybe a sprint focus for those relays will mean she'll have sharper and faster turns, and a stronger kick. The mile will be her first event on Saturday evening, unless she swims a leg on the prelims 4 x 100 FrR, but that will be more of a shake-out, get-the-lead-out swim. She's done well with a busy schedule before, and it's obvious she's pretty motivated.

I say under 15:00. 14:58.xx.

more like 30. she will lap everyone

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___________________________________________
http://en.wikipedia.org/...eoesophageal_fistula
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2020 National Masters Champion - M40-44 - 400m IM
Canadian Record Holder 35-39M & 40-44M - 200 m Butterfly (LCM)

14:58.50

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

Guessing her seed time is from last year?

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36 kona qualifiers 2006-'23 - 3 Kona Podiums - 4 OA IM AG wins - 5 IM AG wins - 18 70.3 AG wins
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In regards to a “ busy” schedule, the NCAA limits all swimmers to 4 events, either 3 individual + 1 relay, or 2 individual + 2 relays. Most of the swimmers that can legitimately win 3 events, like Ledecky, go 3 + 1, as that nets the most points for the team. So, she won’t be swimming a bunch of relays, nobody will :-) She most likely will swim the 4 x 200 relay- which I believe is day 1. So her schedule would be day 1- 4 x 200 relay + 500 free, Day 2- 400 IM, Day 3- 1650.
Doubtful that fatigue will be an issue :-) 15 minutes on a 1650 is one of those barrier times, like a 3 hour marathon... Can’t see her not being psyched to go for it.

I looked into the number of events a few weeks ago during the Dressel thread and IIRC, the event number limit was 7 events total so he could in theory swim all 5 relays and 2 indy events, or 4 relays and 3 indy events. I wouldn't bet $1000 on this but this is what i recall.

Also, not to split hairs too much but i think going sub-15 for 1650 would be more analogous to going sub-2:15, or perhaps even sub-2:10, for the women's mary. The 3 hr mary is way too slow to be analogous. Just a thought...:)

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

You have it right. 4 relay and three individuals or 5/2 for a total of 7 max.

Though I really only see her in one other relay / the 4 x 100 free.

I dug through the NCAA D1 web site and finally found the following in the "2017-18 Pre-Championships Manual":

MAXIMUM NUMBER OF EVENTS
A student-athlete is permitted to compete in a maximum of seven events of which not more than three may be individual events. A student-athlete who swims more than the allowable number of individual or total events will be disqualified and prohibited from participating in the remainder of the meet at such time as they exceed the allowable limit.

Obv she'll swim the 500 and 1650 but do you think she'll really swim the 400 IM over the 200 free???

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

No, max of 3 individual events.

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Tiago
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Ya, i finally found that and was editing my post when you posted yours. :)

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

Ledecky' schedule is pretty busy when we get right down to it:

Wednesday: 4 x 200 FrR
Thursday, AM: prelims, 500 free
Thursday, PM: finals, 500 free
Friday, AM: prelims 400 IM
Friday, PM: finals 400 IM
Saturday, PM: times finals 1650; finals 4 x 100 FrR

Also consider warm-up for each session, and that's lots of swimming.

BTW: seed times for the championships are from THIS season (September, 2017-Late February, 2018), only. In most USA Swimming meets, seed times can be used for swims up to 2 years before the meet. In some international meets, fastest times from the past two years can be used, even though if those times are faster than the official selection meet (USA Olympic Trials). This is because most nations don't have a Trials format as big as the USA, and some swimmers from smaller nations can use times from other meets if there are no Trials/selection meets for that nation. I personally saw a swimmer from Latvia qualify for the 2013 World Championships at a club meet in Oklahoma.

True, that is a lot of swimming, with three tough events. Kinda disappointed she's not swimming the 200 free though, other than on the relay.

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

She didn’t enter the 200 free and opted for the 400 IM. No going back now.

Who else does stanford have in the 2free?


never mind, found the link. That seems like an odd decision for team points to have her swim the 4IM rather than the 2free. Stanford just has Simone in the 200 as the 1 seed, Stanfords next swimmer is seeded 11, but they're going in with 3 of the top 4 seeds in the 400IM, with an additional 12 seed and 20 seed.


Only rationale I can think of is that they think Simone will win the 200, but Ella / Brooke may not be able to beat Sydney Pickrem, so they want Ledecky in there?


http://i.turner.ncaa.com/sites/default/files/images/2018/02/28/swimdive-full-list.pdf

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Or maybe it's not a team-driven decision, but an athlete driven decision. Stanford would appear to have the luxury of sacrificing a few potential net points in order to make their most valuable athlete happy.

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"They're made of latex, not nitroglycerin"

yes, stanford is going to win the meet by a landslide.

I don't think it is an "athlete" decision in the sense that KL demanded or even requested the 200 free. I think the mandate was we are the best team so we put each athlete in their best event. And in short course yards, KL is better in the 400 IM than 200 free.

(If I was going with a conspiracy/selfish angle I would say that KL is doing this is because her chances of winning the 400IM are significantly greater than 200 free and she wants to be the first swimmer to win 12 NCAA individual events. Of course doesn't that mean the 400 IM is her better event?).

Saturday, PM: times finals 1650; finals 4 x 100 FrR //

I looked over the swimmers and teams and this is why I think maybe she is not going to drill the 1650 into oblivion. She did that at the games and choked(as far as she can choke) on the relay, having the slowest split and slower than would have been expected of her. There are some womens teams with a lot of great sprinters in this meet, so this 4x100 relay is going to be a barn burner. It looks like to me that she will have to swim her best sprint for the team to have a chance. She will be lapping the field in the 1650, so really it could be a good warm up, or it could take a few tenths again like it did at the olympics...


Not drilling the 1650 is her best chance at a gold in the relay(and probably all golds for the meet), but not sure if she learned anything from this last time this scenario came around..Some people just swim like dogs, all out(considering distance) with no regard to what comes next..

I think she is hard wired to crush her swims. She had the fastest 100 split on her team at the mid season meet when she set the 1650 record earlier this year. Simone was out with injury though. Realistically they are swimming for 2nd place behind Cal in this relay. I filled out the PickEm contest on swimswam today its fun to follow along

She had the fastest 100 split on her team at the mid season meet when she set the 1650 record earlier this year//

THat's exactly my point, their team is not a lock by any means when she has the fastest split(which means nothing really, the relay is 4 times combined). Of course Simone changes everything, but regardless, they will need Katie to have her best sprint swim to be competitive. Not the 2nd best time on the team, not her PR, nothing less than the best she could do that day not being trashed by crushing the ghost in the lane next to her in the 1650.

But you are probably right, she will swim like a dog, in the moment...But isn't that what coaches are for, many times to tell you to not go too hard rather than go harder??

15:00:15
Bank on it. ;)

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Team Zoot So Cal

- Keep in mind at the conference finals, she swam her best 200 scy of the year, beating Simone by a finger nail, only a few minutes after setting an American record in the 400 IM.
Pretty sure she will have plenty left for a huge effort in the 4 x 100, even if she crushes the 1650.
But, that is why I thought this would be a fun post- lot’s of variables here. We will all see soon enough, always fun to be able to watch an all time great athlete :-)

She also did a couple 1000/200 dual meet doubles where she finished the 1000 and rested on the wall
for ONE MINUTE while the rest of the swimmers finished and then she exited the water and immediately got up on the blocks for the 200 and twice went a 1:43

They will likely have a projected margin of victory of over 100 points heading into the last night of finals so I doubt the relay place is of any concern to the team standings but it will be Simone's final college swim.

Is the 1650 straight to final at NCAA's? or do they make them swim heats?

my prediction - new AR but a hair over the 15 minute mark. 15:01.34

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Friend of mine who has three Olympic Golds said that he sees a good chance of going under. She will not be tired from other events. She is trained for it and no reason not to

They just swim once with the top seeds swimming in the afternoon and slower seeds in the morning but placing is from all the swims.

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Tiago
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That's how it usually works up here too. Typically the 800 or 1500 is run in their own session held between heats and finals for all but the fastest heat. but I was having a brain fart and couldn't remember how NCAA's does it.

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She also did a couple 1000/200 dual meet doubles where she finished the 1000 and rested on the wall
for ONE MINUTE while the rest of the swimmers finished and then she exited the water and immediately got up on the blocks for the 200 and twice went a 1:43 //

Ok you guys on this thread with this feeling, you are not getting what I'm saying so stop giving me examples of her winning small meets going back to back, with one minute rest already!! My point is what if she could have gone 1;42 in that race with some rest?? I gave you the ultimate example that actually happened at the Olympic Games, where she was off on her relay split, I say because she was arm tired from a program of drilling every single event. And for the last time, of course she will do a good time no matter what, but this is a relay that combines 4 times, and is compared to 4 times of other swimmers on other teams. They are not the favorites, but have a shot at winning it. It is her teammates last race in college, so probably the rest of the team would like to send her out with a gold in that relay. So lot of pressure to win it, so they will need best times from everyone, and best time from a non arm tired Katie.


That is my point, not that she could not swim 10 events back to back and win them individually. "RELAY"" And I bet she would like to win it too personally, but is time more important to her than winning?? She is a very unique swimmer in that she may be the only one that can dog an event and still win it, very few have had this luxury or choice over the years..

There is a principle that deserves a name. The principle is this: You cannot judge the performance of the super elite based on their place. Torenzo "won" a 70.3 the week after an IM so he must be juicing...KL beat Simone in a 200 free after a 400 IM so she can swim her best with no rest. Wrong and Wrong. The super elite still win under less than ideal conditions because...they are better than everyone else. Not because they are unaffected or cheating.

In order for KL to have her VERY BEST 100 free she cannot go all out in a 1650 2 hours before. This is 100% a fact even if she goes a 46.9 on the relay after smashing the 1650 in 14:55.

Thank you!!! I guess it takes a real swimmer to get this. At least I’m not alone out here. 🏊‍♂️

I hear ya too. ;-)

I still think she breaks the AR, because she's hard-wired that way.

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so says the psyche sheet

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___________________________________________
http://en.wikipedia.org/...eoesophageal_fistula
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cerebral_palsy
2020 National Masters Champion - M40-44 - 400m IM
Canadian Record Holder 35-39M & 40-44M - 200 m Butterfly (LCM)

To your point, and Monty’s, and others...I am not missing your point, I just don’t entirely agree with it. Here is my view, Ledecky is obviously an elite athlete, and as such has physiological characteristics different than 99.999% of the population. This applies not only to her “speed”, but also to her resistance to fatigue. There is a reason why nobody else in the world, now or in the past, has been able to hold such a consistent stroke count and cadence for the entire swim, no matter how long the event. The reality for Ladecky is that a 15 min full effort swim does not fatigue her to the same extent that it would you or I (or any other current elite swimmer). So in considering her, you cannot use the standard “template”, you have to judge by past performances. Could she have swam a faster 200 Free at conference finals if she had not done the 400 IM? Maybe, but also maybe not- she could have very well swam slower. It was, after all, her best 200 scy swim of the season, and by a very similar margin to her time improvements in her other events. In regard to Monty’s reference to a “bad” relay swim- yes she had a bad swim. It happens. Bad swims happen to all swimmers, even the best, even when rested. She could have been tired, or, perhaps she was right in her statement that she got too excited and over swam it?? Here is a fact- there are very few facts when it comes to human performance! Anyone who has competed for any length of time has experienced unexplained great days or performances, and unexplained bad days. That is what makes it fun!
We will all find out soon enough.

I'm a bit late to the party, but I say she goes just over and laps the field.
She pretty much can't not hammer it, but I think she'll just miss the under. Still sets a new record.

I WON!!!!!! Do I finally get the title of kingfish around here yet?? (-;

15;07+

Congrats on your 15:07. Impressive time.

What was the margin?

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'It never gets easier, you just get crazier.'

Good one, now for her split on the relay. Was she just having a bad meet, or loading up for the sprints? Guessing since this is NCAA swimming, she has been doing a lot more spadework than she usually would..

Interestingly, both last season, and this season, Ladecky went 15:03:xx mid season, then 15:07:xx at NCAA’s. She consistently went out well under her record paces in all 3 events, 500 Free, 400 IM and 1650, and faded in all 3. She fell to second in the 400 IM, largely because it was the only event she had a close competitor.
An interesting pattern is developing with Ladecky, mid season, smaller meets, she seems to be more relaxed, goes out easier and holds a very even pace (in both her 15:03’s, she swam every 50 at 27.5, +/- .1- except 1st and last which were both under 27), but in the “big” meets she starts out much faster (5 seconds faster at 500 today than on her record swim) and then fades, 28+ on her final 6 - 50’s today. After lapping the field at 1200 yards today, the woman who finished 2nd recaught Ladecky at the 1300 (for Ladecky, still a 50 behind for McHugh), and swam shoulder to shoulder with Ladecky until she finished.

She fell to second in the 400 IM, largely because it was the only event she had a close competitor. //

Did you see the race?? She did not fall to 2nd, she barley hung onto it. She was beaten by a much better swimmer, one who smashed the record. 3 or 4 girls swam up to her at the end of the breast stroke and she fought for her life to get that 2nd, race in front had already been decided.

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___________________________________________
http://en.wikipedia.org/...eoesophageal_fistula
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cerebral_palsy
2020 National Masters Champion - M40-44 - 400m IM
Canadian Record Holder 35-39M & 40-44M - 200 m Butterfly (LCM)

I think it was minimal rest for Pac12 and a short taper for NCAA. My gut says Pan Pacs in Japan is the bigger priority. 2018 will be about setting up for 2020 for travel and camps ...

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___________________________________________
http://en.wikipedia.org/...eoesophageal_fistula
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cerebral_palsy
2020 National Masters Champion - M40-44 - 400m IM
Canadian Record Holder 35-39M & 40-44M - 200 m Butterfly (LCM)

I think it was minimal rest for Pac12 and a short taper for NCAA. My gut says Pan Pacs in Japan is the bigger priority. 2018 will be about setting up for 2020 for travel and camps ... //

Perhaps, but she had some pretty off swims for her regardless of the short taper. I wonder if she might be a little sick, or perhaps got into a big training hole that only months will get her out of. At any rate, hope he coach is paying attention and figures it out. I wanted her to sandbag the 1650 on purpose, not because she went out hard and died. Her other races were similar, but she was sprinting ok. Should be a great learning experience for her and her coach, kind of hard when you crush the world or other record every other time you swim..(-;