MadTownTRI wrote:
Ali comes in as arguably the second strongest cyclist in the hypothetical 2018 field (nod to current course record holder Wurf). What Brownlee did at St. George 2017, as a hunted man, where he biked the same split as Sanders/Kienle who were WORKING TOGETHER trying to catch him, shows how strong he will be in Kona.
Don’t forget, Starky will be there in 2018, and he can swim. I’d think Brownlee and Starky hammering off the front early and working together will put the field on their heels. I don’t think Gomez (or many others) can hang with Ali/Starky, and you’ll see them put some time into the train.
I could see a scenario where Starky/Ali/ Wurf (having bridged from the chase swim pack and worked his way thru the field) enter T2 together, a few minutes up on Kienle/Sanders and several minutes up on the train. Brownlee could easily be up 10 min on Gomez and Lange by T2.
Ali starts the run in the drivers seat and can “cruise” to 2:4x high for the win. He forces Gomez/Lange to run mid 2:30s if they want the catch and Sanders will have to run 2:4x low.
Whether or not the do/ don’t/ blow up will make for great watching. But having written all this, Brownlee probably gets injured and DNS and the race itself will probably be a dud...
Given his nature, and since it is The Big Show, I would think Ali would try to run as fast as possible to break the course record by as much as possible, maybe 7:45??? Hypothetically, :47 + 4:12 + 2:43 + :03 = 7:45. In any case, the large number of very fast guys will indeed make for an exciting race!!!
"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."