So Monty, being the Kona course swim expert, what's the analysis of how much all these guys overcook the swim and overcook it early in the bike? //

Actually thinking back he does not take the swim easy and just sit on, he fights and tries to win the dam thing. Last year was Harry, one of the other years I remember him drag racing with Potts. I was thinking at the time this guy loves to compete and wants to win every part of this dam race. He should sit on and just take a free ride the entire way, let someone else waltz to the swim prime, but he doesn't.


And as for the bike, he is a great biker, maybe we don't know how good really. But I do believe he is not the "best" biker out there, so ascribing those who are faster than him some blow up strategy is not giving them their do. Yes a lot of guys will over bike the course, but some guys should, as that is what they have trained to do and still be able to run well.


People like to think if only the racers would just pace for their perfect race they would get their fastest time. That may or may not be true, but that does not take into account what someones actions do to the race and in particular what it does to your direct competitors. Perhaps Lionel is the worlds best at overbiking and still being able to run well, but someone that keyed their race after his ride is not so good. We use to call it taking the run legs out of the runners.


Remember this is not a race for time, but for place. I think that is why so many are willing to gamble their paces and hope that this is the day for a break through. If you just sit on power and pace you know you can do, well that is safe and you will have a pretty good time. But if you really want to win or place high, you better be riding with that 25 man train out there at some point because they are not all going to blow up..

Frodo's tactics are the same as The Grip and we know how that worked out. No one beats Frodo!

As I was writing this thread, I was thinking it is basically the Mark Allen strategy....or maybe the Dave Scott strategy that Mark Allen decided to copy rather than overbiking and getting passed by Dave every time! But maybe Lange can out Frodo/out Mark/out Dave with that run capability given that his swim and bike are very solid like everyone above?

So do you think that Frodo just keeps a cap on the run and only follows surges to an extent, but when suicide mode kicks in that he just chooses to let it go, knowing that he has the run strength on them? It almost feels like Frodo could "choose" to bike 4:20 and run slower it he chose to and roll the dice that he can win that way? For example it "feels" like he could just choose to wait for Wurf and stalk him all the way to T2 and come out of the bike with his entire swim lead and more if he wanted to roll with that?

Do you think that Frodo could swim with Amberger if he tried hard enough, or not chance?

Jan can swim with anyone in the race if he wants, and I don't see any reason he wouldn't. It is nice to be out on the bike 1st where you can settle in and let the race form around you. Besides if he drops off he will likely have to pull whatever is left, doing the same work as if he drafted a faster guy. Like some of his countrymen before him, he does not need to lead the entire race the entire way, like Wolfgang or Faris.

But for some stinking reason he wants to win that swim prime, and as I think about that perhaps without knowing the actual time they are swimming, you could be putting your name in the record books? Now that the course is 200m shorter someone one is going to break Lars record one of these days when the conditions are perfect. But he guns it like the swim is the finish of the race every year, I love it!!

He is going to be worried this year and I bet he is not going to use a Mark Allen strategy of just sticking with Lange. I think this will be Lange's tactic, it should be up to some point where he just thinks it is too much. But keep in mind in the old wars that Mark was the better biker than Dave, or at least rode like he was. And it was his undoing riding on PE instead of HR, usually putting a lot of minutes into the group to T2.

OK, so basically Lionel does all this work to get better in the swim and then Amberger shows up and tows Frodo to a 90 second faster swim split and then Wurf shows up and tows Frodo to Hawi and most of the way back and Frodo does not even have to work that hard while all these guys haul him around and hold off the uberbikers? Would love to see Frodo's powerfile from this year.

I don't think I said that, Frodo is not going to ride with Wurf if he is gunning for the bike course record. He can only ride what he can ride, like I said I feel there are 3 or more better on the bike than he is in this race. I think he will hang around that lead group once it congeals into its max size, and then wait for an opportunity to escape later on on the back 1/3. Let some of those up and down power miles get into Lange's legs first, then make a run for the finish with maybe TO or Weiss, or one of those other guys that always guns the last 1/3 of the ride. And even take a tow from Keinle or Sanders for a bit, but don't hang on too long unless you are sure you are riding in ok territory.

No - I don;t think Lange to can that - he is not a front pack swimmer is he? I disagree that Dave followed that strategy. Dave crushed every leg!

Spoiler alert.....

Sanders swims faster than before, him and Kienle pick up Lange early in the bike and all work together to join the front bike group within 90km, Frodo Kienle Lange and Sanders start the run together for an epic battle. :) Lange takes it.

Was that about Dave suppose to be in pink?
Dave would let Mark and the Germans ride away. He knew his PE and figured they would die on the run or win. They died. Mark watched Dave win every year until '89 when he decided to stay on his shoulder until the very end.

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Team Zoot So Cal

Well, according to his press conference, he wants to swim fast and expects a fast ride (if conditions are not too bad). And I read it as if he sees himself in the mix of the fast riders. Only LS would stand out of that. https://tri-mag.de/szene/pressekonferenz-von-jan-frodeno-bildern-143285/jan-frodeno-ironman-hawaii-2017-pressekonferenz-0


Anyway, he will swim fast and if he wants to, he is capable to ride fast. He mentions in the interview that he worked a lot at aerodynamics. Remember what he said after IM Austria? Something like "I was not at 100% today, rode ~20W less than I typically do, but I tried to stay very aero". He was still be far faster than Llanos and Weiss. Let him add those 20W (or more) and let the games begin...

If I'm not mistaken, Frodeno was third out of the water in 2015 and 1st into T2. He bombed the last 8 miles on the bike and overtook Tim O'donnell

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Would be interesting, though I don't think Kienle has any chance of keeping up with the others in a pure running race. He knows this as well and has said he wants a lead into t2. Sanders I hope will preform great, but the weather isn't his strongest suit. I don't think anyone is touching Frodeno this year, he is just that good. Next year maybe some of the newcomers could threaten him, but just don't see it happening bar a flat och penalty.
I do think that Nilsson will podium, perhaps 2nd. Should be a 50 min swim, 4:30 bike and >2:40 run and I think next year he can threaten for the win. He has been working a lot on his bike this year which is his weakness, comes out of the water with Lange, and runs at least as good as him! Not to mention he is only 26... 26 year olds shouldn't be that fast!!
1. Frodeno
2. Nilsson
3. Sanders
4. Lange
5. Kienle

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

It shoud be interesting to see how fast he is willing to swim-bike. Previously he could choose to not ride that hard because there was really no straight up run threat in the field lurking behind him. Now he is a cramp away from guys like Lange and Nilsson overtaking him or even Sanders and Kienle passing him back if those two tag team the bike to create enough of a gap. He has a potential swim ally in Amberger to create a larger lead going into T1 if he can use Josh as a swim domestique.

Another interesting thing I picked up from the Bob interviews is that Lange running 2:40 last year really scared the shit out of everyone. TO and Hoff both alluded to it changing the game and that they have been working extremely hard on their run and are confident they can now run with those guys. We will see.

TO, Hoff, Sanders, Kienle, Frodo....none of these guys have a chance of smelling a 2:40 run pace. Frodo could do it when it is cool in Roth, but he's too big to dissipate the heat manufactured running that fast in Kona. The others can't run that fast and never will no matter what. You're either born to run that fast in Kona or not. Training can only get you that far. TO, Hoff....sorry boys no chance. Hopefully I am totally wrong because I love almost all these guys named in this post. But I think we're talking about an exclusive club occupied by only Mark Allen and Lange and no one else. A bunch of 2:42's in Kona but no 2:40. 2:40 is basically 3 seconds faster per km or 1 second faster per 400m. That's actually a reasonable gap that's close to impossible to get to when you're max'd out.

No doubt. I'm sure all those guys would be thrilled to even run sub 2:50. TO did specifically mention that when Dave went 2:40, he made a huge jump to that (hadn't run faster than 2:50 before that IIRC) and TO is hoping to have a similar breakthrough. Will be interesting to watch, and I agree that it's probably not going to happen though.

Last year's race made it clear to me that Jan has passed the point of mastery of Kona. I think he is clearly operating on the level of Scott, Allen and Reid. He's 36, and it's possible he's too old to win 6. He knows himself, the others, and this course. He seems to be 6 moves ahead of the others, including Keinle. That isn't to say he isn't racing the others. But he appears to have a winning answer, no matter what they do.

And, frankly, Ryf is operating in the same realm right now.

I know people are in love with the runners - and I like Nilsson and I do believe he will run well...but he got outbiked in Frankfurt by Kienle by 15 minutes - and that was with Sebi having a solo effort on the bike most of the way. Then, Patrik outran him by 5 minutes (2:40-2:45 - that's not slow :) ) but still lost by 9.

Sebi will probably be the most protected on the bike he ever has been, and if he's smart he could make the last 30 miles even tougher than ever...and he ran 2:49 last year - and I think that the lack of strength on the bike from Patrik and others will not let them challenge for the win - but possibly the podium if it's just carnage. But if they try and bike with the front pack, I don't think they will sniff 2:40 either.

Brent

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DFRU - Detta Family Racing Unit...the kids like it and we all get out and after it...gotta keep the fam involved!

I think where Jan has gotten to is not just his mastery of all aspects of the race, but basically the head space of all the competition is hijacked with "what is Jan doing, what do I have do to defeat Jan, how much gap is there between Jan, where is Jan, who is he with, is Jan coming, did we drop Jan yet?". Basically his competition is stuck in the same head space as all the protour riders are with Froome in the TdF. It's literally all about how things are playing out relative to Froome/Jan given that these guys have no weakness and can both choose to do their own race on every terrain, or put the hammer down at any point in the race and enforce who is the patron of the peloton. In that vein, it fees like he has many of these guys defeated before the start line.

One of Lionel's big motivators to go to Kona this year is he wants to beat Jan head to head. He did not want to wait till Jan retires. Beating Jan in Kona is what he wants to do. At Oceanside he was literally mentally twisted backwards when Jan flatted. He wanted that chance. Does he believe he can beat Jan? I think so. But it does not seem like he is drawing motivation by beating the likes of Lange of Nilsson. It's about trying to beat the champion at his game head to head.

He admittedly didn’t have a good bike in Frankfurt, but yeah see what you mean. I think it really depends on if the Patrick’s can hang on to the train. Think they are about equally strong on the bike, with Lange perhaps being a little stronger. However if Nilsson manages to latch onto the train I think it can work.
Let’s say frodo/Kienle bikes a 4:25, if Nilsson is within 7-8min I would say he def has a chance for the podium. Like I said, I think Nilsson/Lange are not ready to challenge for the win as they would need to bike 5 min faster at least, but 2/3 is definitely open.
It will be interesting to see the train this year and how the pace will be when we have so many uberbikers. I think that Lange would have been able to go with the train last year if he hadn’t had his penalty, but of course he probably wouldn’t have run as fast in that case.
Sebi and Sanders will likely push the pace, and I think frodo is gonna be right with them. Don’t think anyone else who may ride with them will have a decent run

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Jan's time last year was the 4th fastest ever. Even with the shorter swim than recent years swim I think it would have still be top 5. If he's in everyone's head it's for good reason. His performance on the big island stacks up well against as anyone in the history of the sport. Being the reigning champ he also had the "easiest" ticket to punch to get back here so he could focus more on this race and show up more prepared, well rested.

I like Sanders, but barring flat/injury, I just think there is no way he beats Jan (or the other top guys) to win this thing. His time the past two years are 8:36 and 8:44. I'd venture to guess that it's gonna take at least an 8:09 (if conditions are decent) to win. A 30 minute course PR by someone in the pointy end? I don't know the sport as well as other, but (not counting the early years) I'm not sure we've seen anything close to this on the men's side before.

But if he manages to win it, the 20% of people who voted for him in the poll are welcome to give me shit.

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Matt

If Sanders wins, slowman will have to transfer his servers to Amazon Web Services and hijack all of AWS's networking, storage and compute capacity. The energy grids worldwide will collapse from the surge of power draw into the AWS data centers. Don't worry about the people voting for Sanders giving you shit. Wall street will seek you out and lynch you because the entire US economy collapsed from the cascading grid failure form this surge.

Here is a wrench to throw in the works:

If I recall some stories correctly, leading into 1989, Allen had destroyed himself in training so much physically that his hormone levels/testosterone, etc., were so out of whack that he forced himself to take a block of time OFF shortly prior to Kona in order to bounce back.

And I believe that Peter Reid suffered so much one year with Tim DeBoom chasing him that he grossly overtrained the next year (out of fear, he said) and from that point on in his career, he never completely bounced back.

You would be hard-pressed to find more expert racers than Allen and Reid, outside of possibly Dave Scott and Craig Alexander. Did Frodo -- or anyone else -- get so scared of Lange (or whomever) that they tried to up their training to the point where they actually destroyed themselves rather than being primed to go???

Just an interesting thought.

Ray

Well, you have to take the circumstances into consideration. For the 8:36, he grossly overtrained. For the 8:44 he grossly undertrained (and walked a lot). He's now a 4+ minute faster swimmer. His aerodynamics are now vastly improved. He's got an "advisor" that knows what he's doing.

He's in for a big pr for sure, but will it be good enough to win? It will be fun to watch!!

I'm surprised that Lange only has 7% of the votes. If two of the top PRO men have already hinted that his performance caused them to change the way they train, you can bet he has got into the head space of all the top contenders. It has not only changed the way some of the pro's prepared but it will without a doubt change the way a lot of them choose to race.

BTW, I think it would be a real shame if Stadlers' bike course record gets beaten by someone who blows up and ends up way down the field. The magical thing about his bike record is his bike stood all by itself in T2 for about 16mins whilst he was on his way to an 11 in victory.

Yes, the great thing about Stadler's 4:18 is that it is backed up with a win..., and that it stood for a decade and still stands after all the aero advancements....Frodo's aero set up and engine alone should be worthy of sliding under Stadler's mark if Frodo chose to hammer the bike

Here is another wrench to throw in the mix:

Notwithstanding the fact that the weather on the West Hawi coast is notoriously unpredictable, two weather forecasts (accuweather & Dark Sky) are predicting very strong winds Saturday, 13-15mph with gusts to 20mph which is much worse than previous years. Of course, the direction is from the east so these would be cross.

Assuming this stands or is even close to prediction, how does that change everyone's predictions?

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

Have you seen the training video that has been posted of Kienle? Insane!!! If the winds are strong, I vote for SK.

ETA: I voted for Frodeno in the poll.

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

I don't think it changes my prediction. This would be something for which I believe Frodo has an answer that will still leave him at the front at the end of the day. It would certainly improve Keinle's odds of pulling off a win, though.

I like some of the other guys and hope some of them get wins. But I just don't think any of them are going to break through Frodo and Keinle. Not without some luck on their part and/or bad luck on either of those two's part.

Both years he had great races outside of Kona and did poorly in Kona. So how do we know his great races here will lead to a great Kona this year? I’ll believe he can race great in Kona after he proves he can race at least good (by his high standards) in Kona. I think he’ll pr by a lot which will be a step towards winning. But I don’t see him beating the Germans this weekend given how they’ve proved they can do well at Kona

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Matt

What a great pic... Look at all that stuff behind his seat!!

My guess is that Frodo wants the win bad again this year and believes he can win, but Lange's run last year (2:39:45) that was 5mins faster than his best Kona run (2:45:34) scared him. Say what you want about Lange's penalty, but almost 6mins faster than Jan has ever run in Kona is no joke. That is much faster in those conditions is not something that can easily be equalled, his 2:39 Roth split is a 2:45 In Kona. Anyone who has tried to PR a run by 5mins--open or ironman marathon--knows that at that speed and pace it is a very big jump. Jan also knows that it is not just Lange he needs be concerned with. Listeing to his interviews, I think Jan want's to make the bike hard immediately so that Lange's run legs are wrecked and his better bike strength leaves him fresher allowing him to outrun any other fast runner. Also, forcing the bike to be hard immediately also takes away from Kienle, Sander' s and others ability to break away from the lead group and build an insurmountable gap on him in the back third of the bike.

A note on Sanders vs. Frodo. Sanders can win, but he has to race to his abilities and he has to get out with the 2nd main swim pack or very close to it. If that is done, he needs to team up and actually work with the strong bikers to close the gap to the Kona Express. Then he needs to work with the strongest riders to keep the pace high. Then Sanders needs to break away after 120km with a few others and build a lead on Frodo and or Frodo breaks away with him and the breakaway group builds a lead. Once Sanders hits T2 he runs his own steady, but fast pace and has the others fall away from him or blow up trying to outrun him. If Frodo is there he can't do what Kienle did with Frodo last year, Sanders will blow up trying to match Frodo's foot speed at the beginning, but if he is patient he may slowly wear out a Frodo over running at tge beginning to put time into Sanders/Lange and reel Frodo back in at the end. That's the only way I see Sanders able to beat Frodo currently.

If Stadler can go 4:18 with the Home Depot hardware aisle behind his seat, Frodo on a Canyon and a proper skinsuit should go at least 4:17!!!!

It's gonna take a Macca-2010 like coup to dethrone Jan. I find it hard to see where they will be able to upset him, but better believe people will try!

You gotta believe that Sebi and Sanders are working on the coup. But Jan could have a counter coup up his sleeve. He swims with Amberger and then the two of them get picked up by Wurf and they get on as passengers behind the Wurf Shinkansen (Japanese bullet train). Now you have Jan out couping the coup coalition. Jan gets to T2 in 48 min swim + 2min T2 + 4:17 bike. He hits Alii drive at 5:09 race time. He could basically moon walk the entire lava fields after that, and still have a chance at a sub 8 after that. How do you beat that counter coup? Good luck with that. Jan just got blessed with the IM Cairns front train to tow him along all day to the fastest ever combined time to T2.

At Cairns Josh did 47 + 4:17 and Wurf did 49 + 4:15. This is the front bullet train in Kona assuming these Aussie boys are on form. I don't see why Jan can't go with that.

I actually don't hope this scenario materializes and ideally Lionel and Sebi can ride through the field including riding past Jan, drop him and latch on to the Aussies in the front and do the full blown 2010 Macca coup, but I don't think this is possible if you do the simple math in terms of catching Wurf. Mainly for them, I hope they can ride past Jan and pick up Josh and let Wurf be a race non factor and go on the suicide mission.

As much as I like the underdogs, I’ll admit Frodo will be hard to beat. He has the ability and the experience. He knows how to win in Kona and that’s a big advantage. However:
“Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. “
Someone will have a puncture, someone will get a penalty, someone will have a bad swim,a good swim, drop their nutrition, be hiding an injury etc etc
And Ironman more than any other sport has so many variables which just makes it fascinating to watch.

The forecast is still holding, in fact, Dark Sky's forecast has gotten worse. Can't wait to see the forecast tomorrow morning but if it's even close to what is currently predicted, it will be close to a 2004 race (fastest split 4:37, Stadler) or at least like 2012 (4:33, Kienle). What's more interesting is that these winds are only around Hawi and the surf/wind forecast for Kona is very light which means this doesn't change the swim much from prior years. This seems to favour Kienle and, dare I say it, Sanders. I think this also gives a good bump to Amberger.

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

I like it! Sander and Kienle will love that!

Seems this would favor Kienle more than Sanders, kienle is better at descending and I would say has better bike handling skills. No wind on the rollers! Would love to see the train breakup because of the wind though!

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Right, i forgot Sanders is like me in that I'm an outdoor riding coward. Kienle ftw.

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

Kienle top tube riding down from Hawi should launch him well ahead of everyone in the cross winds. I'd imagine that Cam Wurf should also have a bike handling advantage in that scenario.

Hey Dev, great post and superb insights as usual. I recently saw Jan's press conference at the Oakley house and his comments were quite interesting. What I found most relevant is that he specifically said that on the swim, bike, and run he and his training partners have been pretty even and battling it out constantly in Girona: Jan, David Mcnamee, and Nick Kastelein. All of them front pack swimmers and have elevated their bike prowess and solid solid runners. I expect to see these 3 gents sticking quite together on the swim and bike(as much possible), and then every man for himself on the run. I even believe coming into Kona they have quite openly discussed this. This could also bring in the mix as has been discussed here Amberger and Wurf.

I think Sebi is crystal clear about this, and knows that his best shot is to work with Lionel and bridge this new front bike pack as soon as possible, as if they get too far ahead then they dictate the pace, work together and quite possibly build an unsurmountable lead coming off at T2. Sebi does not dish out respect to many competitors but on his interview to Triathlon World (Kevin McKinnon) you can really see his respect of Lionel in regards to his racing style and honesty behind it.

Throw in the mix TO and Hoffman and how Lange performs on the bike as well as (Cunnama and Nilsson) and you have absolute fireworks come saturday.

Quite possibly having the biggest group ever come out of T2 at Kona and we shall see unfold in front of our eyes the most exciting marathon ever at Kona.

(Quote) "Quite possibly having the biggest group ever come out of T2 at Kona and we shall see unfold in front of our eyes the most exciting marathon ever at Kona" (Quote)

Maybe the biggest group out of T2 but I suspect by mile 24 there will be only Frodo, i.e., I doubt this race will match Mark and Dave in '89. And if by some chance it actually does come down to an even closer finish than '89, well, it took 28 years for this to happen. :)

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

Don't forget 2010 Mecca vs Ralaert

Ah yes, that was indeed a battle; thanks for the refresher.

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."