St George is 2 weeks away, not next weekend.

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

Did Alistair previously announce he is riding Scott instead of Boardman and I missed that? Or did he just drop that on instagram now...

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

Pics on Twitter as well

Johnny too?? I don't twitter so I only saw Ali's post.

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

Is the prince of Bahrain really racing pro? Will he still be allowed the armored SUV with guards and submachine guns to drive next to him on the course like he did on Florida?

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-------------
Ed O'Malley
www.VeloVetta.com
Founder of VeloVetta Cycling Shoes
Instagram • Facebook

here's the scoop.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

LMFAO! Did that really happen? Freaking ridiculous.

http://forum.slowtwitch.com/...hrain%20suv#p4833576

---

-------------
Ed O'Malley
www.VeloVetta.com
Founder of VeloVetta Cycling Shoes
Instagram • Facebook

Oh this guy. Yeah hes riddled with controversy. http://trstriathlon.com/...-unfortunate-number/

Does Challenge offer a tracker or some sort of live coverage?

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Patti in NJ

Is Boardman cleaning house? They seem to have lost / dropped a few people recently.

Yes:-) check the race website!

They are for some reason sponsoring alot of norwegian athletes. I think they picked up both the male and female norseman-winners last year.

Boardman are sponsoring a cycling team for the first time this year - One Pro Cycling. Presumably that didn't leave any spare cash for Skipper, Gossage and now the Bs.

They are sponsoring

http://oneprocycling.com/

Pro Conti level team

Which is probably taking a lot of their budget.

Ali and Jonny did say that post London 2012 lots of manufacturers offered them huge deals but they wanted to stay with Boardman as he'd been there with them since the start. Boardman have tended towards Brits inevitably, they sponsored Nicole Cooke when she won Beijing Road Race 2008 for example.

Obviously as they are moving towards the mid point of their careers, they've decided they'd like a bit of a payrise. Can't blame them.

The weather forecast for tomorrow looks like a comfortable one with ~18*C at the start and only 21*C for the high. That along with partly cloudy skies should make for pretty ideal race conditions. I'm excited to see what sort of run split Alistair puts up.

Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

He will probably win by 5-10 mins looking at the field. True test will come at St George
Ladies field looks much deeper, at least i recognize the names on the list, Ryf, Gossage, Abraham,,,,

Yea I think so too (though win-margin of 5 min or smth, thats still huge on the pro levle. I would also suspetc he doesn't go to deep on the run today, if he doesnt have to. As I noted above I think Giardini could hang on until T2 (atleast he's had some amazing swim/bike splits in the past!)

Live tracker here: http://challengegc.live.trackingsport.com/online/seguimiento

Will be interesting to see how far Mark Buckingham pushes Alistair.

Well AB has a 1 min gap on the bike already. After coming in with the first swim pack he only seems to have spent 20k putting 1 min into the rest..! and 2 min into David Giardini, who was also in the first swim pack.

He is truly crushing it! Can't wait until st george

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

AB is just under 3 minutes ahead at 40k. That's extended the gap 2 minutes in 20k. Flying.

yeah flying! Im surprised he crushed the field this hard on the bike - allthough I guess the gran-can bike course is kinda hilly? (which would play to AB i guess?)

Just ridiculous.

Now 4 mins at 60k.

I don't think Chris Boardman owns Boardman bikes anymore. I think he sold out last year.

I know Ali had a lot of respect for him so maybe that was also a small piece of his decision?

Something seems to be up with ryf's tracker, it says she's already in t2 which would mean she did the last 30k in 21 min

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

AB had about 6 mins lead into T2 and held onto it past 2.25km on the run. Mark Buckingham is a few minutes off the podium in 4th but I bet a good chance of running his way into top 3.

He is flying on the run as well! 26:30 through 7.25k

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

35 mins through 10k, he is jogging round! ;-)

Haha actually true for him! Seems like he won't go sub 4

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

He's a smart racer: on the run he won't push himself any more than he needs to in order to win.

Yeah I agree, he already has more than a 6 min lead so I don't think he's too worried. He's prob seeing this as a good warmup/test run for the next race

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Fininshed in 4:03:09!

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

His 01:11:16 run had nice even splits as in very nicely controlled. St. George will be so darn interesting to follow.

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Lets say he wins St George and qualifies for 70.3 Worlds, will he not feature again until the championship race? Or does he plan to go around smashing 70.3 races? Maybe a 140.6 this year? Any insight...

70.3 this year, 140.6 next. Mebbe.


[/quote]

He won't turn up just for the sake of it: look at his last few years in ITU.

He has said he'd race the Leeds ITU this year.

Not a Browlee observation but it was a bit surprising to see Daniela Ryf come third behind Emma Pallant and Lucy Charles. Pallant put in a very nice run of 1:15:34 to move from third off the bike to win. Well done Emma.

Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Apparently she miscalculated the bike laps, got off her bike too early and lost time going back and getting back on to do the final lap.

I was sure this kind of thing only happened to AGers like me.

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***

He ran 71 coming out of T2 with a 6 minute lead? Wow... St. George should be interesting!

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

If you look at his splits he did the run very evenly too so there was no backing off. I'm wondering how hard the bike course actually was compared to say St. George. As you say St. George will be very interesting.

Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

True story. This is Kona domination waiting to happen. He can get that done, probably more than once, and still go back to medicine if he wants to. Not too shabby.

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----------------------------------------------------------------

ANYONE GOT A BIKE COURSE ELEVATION MAP FOR THIS COURSE???

4:03 isn't crazy crazy fast is it?

These guys are why I love sports. Freaking Hero's :)

It doesn't have to be - it just has to be faster than everyone else. Anything else is wasted effort and more recovery time. He races very intelligently. He put enough into the few behind him to give him a buffer, then got it done.

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----------------------------------------------------------------

That's what I was thinking.

It's not crazy fast but it was a tough course
Think people got a bit carried away with this victory here, Kona dominance and all
He has the potential clearly but let's wait and see how the rest of the year unfolds or if he even wants to do Kona. I think he talked about 2020 tokyo as well

I don't know personally, but the article said he broke the course record by 10 minutes, fwiw.

Some fast women had slower times as well. I vote hard course.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

I'm sure Challenge loves the BBC.

http://www.bbc.com/...t/triathlon/39678393

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My race site: https://racesandplaces.wixsite.com/racesandplaces

Yeah just read it was pretty hilly.

Haha. Now how does WTC handle this. Imfringementof intellectual property or free PR?

To put the course record in perspective, this was only the second time Challenge has run this race. Thomas Steger who just started doing triathon in 2012 won last year with a 4:14:25. The pro field that followed him to the finish contained several other not very well known men. So getting the record by 10 minutes is not really that big a deal. St. George will be much more telling. If Ali just rides and runs away from everyone at St. George that will make quite a statement.

YMMV,

Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

There's no way he rides/ runs away...is there? I wonder how long he'll stay away from Sanders/ Kienle.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

It's really tough to get much of a "read" on the Gran Canaria result. A 25:20 wet suited, flat, salt water swim certainly had to be an easy effort for the likes of Alistair. We have no real idea how tough the bike course was beyond the map makes it look hilly. Emma Pallant ran a 1:15:34 and even though I know she's a good runner that makes me have to think the run course was a few minutes short. For reference at the 2016 70.3 WC the fasted female run was Melissa Hauschildt who did a 1:18:43. At the same race LS ran a 1:10:34. so over 8 minutes faster than the top woman. Ali was just over 4 minutes faster than Pallant but perhaps he wasn't even breaking a sweat. Much stronger proof of the pudding will come in a couple of weeks. I think we need a prediction pool on this one.

Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

I don't think his time, breaking the course record etc is particularly indicative of how he'll perform at St George. One would imagine that he would beat the Challenge GC field by several minutes, but also that he wasn't absolutely smashing himself once he had a significant cushion - he's a savvy racer and anything else is just wasted effort.

He'll definitely go quicker at St George but whether he goes quicker than Kienle etc is definitely up for grabs.

Indeed.

I think there is no way he gaps the front swim packin st George. Hell stick with it and go first out of T1, is my guess.

The bike wil be real exiting. Its hilly so i dont think you'll get the big front pack train. Will surely be exiting! Maybe LS and kienle bridge up? Allthough I can also see ab posting a real strong bike! Hard to predict but my guess is alot of the probable winners (ab, don, LS, kienle) are within 1-2 min out of t2. I also think Win margin will be small.

There you go...from a Strava friend who raced yesterday.

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Sr. Salitre

close to 100ft gain/mile. no joke for a 70.3 course. and his 1:11, with its super even splits, shows he was out at a training pace. St George is going to be really interesting.

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wovebike.com | Wove on instagram

From the Strava data I've looked at, Gran Canaria has ~ 4600 ft of climbing while St. George is more on the order of 3600'. It also looks as if GC was about a mile short with St. George close to dead on for distance. The way the vertical is distributed is quite radically different between the two.

Gran Canaria half

St. George 70.3

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

I think the long sustained climb at St George will favor Brownlee

Gran Canaria:
https://www.strava.com/activities/953050171

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wovebike.com | Wove on instagram

I definatley think the long climb is good for Brownlee, but I dont think that is his biggest edge over the long-course-guys. Long sustained climbs make it more of a w/kg-competion than the shorter, more bust-like riding you get from a profile like Gran-Can (short hills where you power up and rest on the decent). The bursty-type riding gives AB a real edge from his ITU-style of racing. Also - the Gran-Can profile I understand was super technical with lots of turns etc, which I guess also favoured AB vs a typical long-course-guy. I dont think AB has any advantage over f.ex Kienle/LS in a pure w/kg..

So in sum I think the GranCan course fits AB better vs long course guys than St. George, but still he'll for sure go fast in St. George.

As AB says himself. This is a hilly bike course so isn't really a proper test of his 70.3 potential. He mentioned in his pre race interview about trying to transition to long sustained efforts from the stop start of ITU racing. St George will be a proper test. Clear he felt pretty good on the bike as his run wasn't slow and even splits.

Now for some ill informed guessing and extrapolation!

Lets say that AB is capable of a 30:30 10k after a hard bike. The Jack Daniels running calculator says 1:07:12.9 for a half!

"I have been reflecting upon Felip Ospaly's recent run time of 1:08:50 and his overall time of 3:46:02 at IM Austria 70.3 and can't imagine that either (especially that run, a 5:16 pace) has ever been bettered. Does anyone know of any faster times on a reasonably legal course? !"

Has anybody running quicker than 1:08:50? Rather a tough order at your first try but this is the only double Olympic Champ!

Maybe he just hangs out the front like a carrot, for long enough that they burn a lot of matches bridging up to him. Then all to play for on the run, on fresher legs.

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29 years and counting

This post here

http://forum.slowtwitch.com/forum/?post=2848309

I just tried looking at Alistair's 28:32 open 10k time with Ale Martinez's adaptation of Jack Daniel's chart. The problem is that it only goes as far as a 29:24 open 10K. With that entered it projects a 30:31 Tri 10K and a 1:07:27 Tri half marathon so pretty much on the order of what you came up with. Yikes!!!!!!!

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Without necessarily disagreeing that AB could run one of the fastest splits seen I also think those calculators are not necessarily THAT accurate on the really pointy end of the spectrum. If I understand correctly they merely calculate speed based on x% of some functional threshold. I would think also other aspects - fex fuelling - would limit hoe fast the elite/world class can go.

Well since he has gone sub 30 several times in itu I definitely wouldn't rule out a sub 1:07 in the future. Frodo ran 1:09 at St:George so that is the time to beat. Betting that the winner goes sub 3:45 as well.

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Well whatever happens I am very excited to see the outcome. Is there any decent coverage of St George?

I only rode past AB's house the other day. Didn't see a big Scott truck delivering any bikes....

Safe to say that Sanders/ Kienle won't be with AB coming out of T1 so he'll have a lead (with others) on the bike. If anyone does catch him or stay with him on the bike he'll be the freshest on the run.

Can't see anyone making a serious challenge to him here.

He's in a different class for 70.3 against the current crop of pro's. Full distance could be a different story.

If IM Texas is any guide. OK txt updated and finish and transition video feeds.

I'm guessing AB is still in a pretty modest place like below. Does Jonathan live in the same street?

Yup, similar. And I believe Johnny is very close by. I do very occasionally see one or other out training, which is always cool. I overtook JB once. He was on an MTB. And stopped.

I got curious on this and just had to do some strava-stalking :) All the runs I could find (which were quite a few) had the run at 19.9 - 20.1 km, which supports your ascertation that the course was a few (I'd say 3-4) min short. So I agree this run split is probably not very telling as to how fast AB can run.

chilled wrote:

Yup, similar. And I believe Johnny is very close by. I do very occasionally see one or other out training, which is always cool. I overtook JB once. He was on an MTB. And stopped.

Cool. Sounds like my only claim to fame that I once beat the Aussie 1500m champ (3:37pb) in a XC race. Only because he stop to tie his shoes laces.

hold up a second there: are you saying that Keinle and Sanders have higher w/kg than Brownlee? Yes, Sanders and Keinle have higher FTP's, but the difference in weight outstrips what is probably an FTP difference of less than 30 watts. So, that's like putting Froome or Contador vs Cancellara or Sagan on a climb. AB all the way on that one. It's losing time on the downhill AB will have to worry about.

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wovebike.com | Wove on instagram

 Challenge has detailed per km splits up. AB held consistent 3:24 - 3:33 km splits

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wovebike.com | Wove on instagram

Why would he lose on the downhill?

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Because he's lighter.

So? Do you mean that Newton's first law doesn't apply for Kienle/AB

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

If the course was actually 20k which people's Strava data seem to imply then you have to take those with a grain of salt. It's not like there haven't been triathlon swims, bikes or runs that weren't measured quite perfectly.

Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

 Those splits were being posted live, so it is my impression that the splits were not merely his total time divided by in an inaccurate distance

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wovebike.com | Wove on instagram

What evidence do we have that the individual km markers were correctly placed? Over the years I've done more races where they were off rather than on. When a number of athletes GPS data all seem to show a short course I'd actually trust their data more. If anything GPS data tends to show longer than actual courses. Frodo ran a 1:09:12 at St. George back in 2014. Are you expecting way quicker than that from Ali?

Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

That run in St. George 2014 was at least a half mile short ( I have raced it every year). Add another 3:00 or so to his run that year. They have since modified the course a little from that year so no comparing. Best would be to compare what he does this year to what LS and Kienle did last year.

I'd say the probability that they could so many timing mats wrong speaks to the mats being laid out semi-accurately. But, when you look at the splits, he was hitting 17:20-:30/5k pretty consistently, which is 3:33-:36/km pace, which is 1:13:20 half marathon pace, so 2min slower than the short course showed - but it goes to my point that while the course was short, it appears the timing mats along the course were pretty spot on. So, he cruised to a super even paced and controlled 1:13 paced half marathon. Yeah, I think he has 1:08 low in the tank. And seeing how so many of the 70.3 runs are short, lets just call it 1:06!

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wovebike.com | Wove on instagram

You did notice that he they were running loops? So each loop ought to be exactly the same distance or the world has tilted;) His splits just show that he ran quite evenly. We're talking about a single timing mat plus start and finish mat. If the loop distance is off a bit that messes up all of them in a consistent fashion. If he lays down a 1:06 at St. George that was be enough proof for even the most skeptical:)

Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

ahhh, didn't know it was a loop. But, the splits do add up to a 1:13 half, which sounds about right. And, I said 1:06 if the course is 2min short. I think 1:08 on an accurate course with pressure on AB from competitors.

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wovebike.com | Wove on instagram

Yes not a surprise in the consistency:)

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

I believe Potts holds the record with a 1:07 on a run at some point. Gomez ran 1:08 and some change at 2014 70.3 World Championships.

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Team Zoot 2023

An ITU guy isn't going to lose time to sanders on a downhill. Especially AB.

Does no one else here remember kitzbuhl when they had the big uphill? He destroyed everyone. Think he would beat kienle and sanders on a big uphill.

if it's a technical downhill, you have a point. But, kilo for kilo, AB just won't be able to travel as fast on a downhill as someone who weighs 8-11kg more

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wovebike.com | Wove on instagram

It is that Gomez number that is most meaningful to me. He is one of the few in Ali's class for the ITU 10k. That bike at Mt. Tremblant had some good elevation, right?

I don't necessarily expect Brownlee to come in and dominate any one leg. I d think he will be very competitive, and just remember that bike at Kitzbuhl when considering his potential in that leg!

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

How about to Kienle?

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

and that run at Tremblant had some pretty steep uphills. I remember watching that race live and being amazed at how Gomez did not slow down on the super steep hills.

looking back at the marathon prior to Renato Canova's influence and then after, I see AB and Gomez bringing to the long distance stuff what guys like Sammy (and Daniel at this most recent Boston) Wanjiru, Keitany at London, Bekele's post 30k surge at London, Kipchoge, Mutai, Kipsang, Makau, Biwott.... endless surges, racing marathons like people use to race half marathons. Heck, see Keitany's 1:06 first half at London! That's the fierceness I predict we'll see AB and Gomez, and hopefully Murray and others, bringing to long distance racing... to challenge the currently untouchable Frodo.

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wovebike.com | Wove on instagram

While doing some Strava trawling this afternoon I found data for the winner from last year. Tom Steger averaged 244 watts for his 2:20:35 ride. In contrast Lionel Sanders averaged 352 watts for his 2:03:57 St. George ride last year. I'd love to see Alistair's power data if any exists.

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Seriously why does everyone keep pointing this out? You dont travel faster on downhills if you weigh more! It's simple physics! The only thing that comes into play is drag and rolling resistance. Since rolling resistance is negligible it is just drag which we cannot ascertain simply from weight.

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

 you're failing to factor in inertia - "a more massive object has a greater tendency to resist changes in its state of motion" - which, with wind direction and speed changes being magnified on a descent due to increased speed, plays a larger role and favors "massive" riders.

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wovebike.com | Wove on instagram

milesthedog wrote:

you're failing to factor in inertia - "a more massive object has a greater tendency to resist changes in its state of motion" - which, with wind direction and speed changes being magnified on a descent due to increased speed, plays a larger role and favors "massive" riders.

Yes well this is a very small factor. Heres a bit more thorough explanation.

Terminal velocity is when the force of gravity equals the drag

vterminal is proportional to square root (mass / area)
vterminal is proportional to square root (r cubed / r squared)
vterminal is proportional to square root (r)

So at constant density if you double r the terminal velocity increases by 1.414
Double r is eight times the mass for only 1.414 the terminal velocity.

Drag proportional to v squared is the real drag (pun intended)

Now lets pretend you could double your mass and keep the same area
vterminal is proportional to square root (mass / area)
vterminal is proportional to square root (mass / constant)
vterminal is proportional to square root (mass)
If everything was constant (including your area and rolling resistance)
If you increased mass by 2 you would increase terminal velocity by 1.414
If you increased mass by 4 you increase terminal velocity by 2
Rolling resistance is not constant so it would be less than that 1.414 and 2

Let say 180 lb rider and add 20 lbs of lead to the frame - that is only 10% straight down hill
On a 10 grade that is only 0.846% - 40 mph versus 40.43 mph (without accounting for rolling resistance).

Even climbing bikes are designed to be light.
Basically up the hill you pay for all the weight and down the hill you only get credit for the square root of the weight.
Drag proportional to v squared is the real drag

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

My money is on Oscaro on this one!

Well, your money is on a plagiarist - he stole that rant from the third to last post in this thread: https://bicycles.stackexchange.com/...e-go-downhill-faster
shameful. And he then failed to read the final post.

Greater mass has an easier time overcoming wind resistance, but as I referenced in my previous comment on inertia, wind speed and direction and rider direction relative to the wind are not constant, so there a lot of forces trying to change the rider's state of motion (a straight line) and those forces make the lighter rider slower. Toss in some technical turns, and the heavier rider is at a disadvantage. (*My own words)

And here's that final post for you - in quotations, like any good and descent human would do, especially one posing anonymously as an intellectual on a forum ;)

"As usual, I think the best way to consider this is through energy;
in moving from rest at the top of a hill (height h), the conservation of energy applies between potential energy at the top and kinetic at the bottom:
Mgh = MV^2 + losses(due to aero and rolling resistance)
therefore
V = sqrt( gh - losses/M )
as losses are not proportional to mass, then factoring them down by mass reduces their influence on speed for the heavier rider, regardless of whether terminal velocity has been reached or not"

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wovebike.com | Wove on instagram

I never claimed that the words were my my own, and thought it would be enough that the font was different so one would understand that it was copy pasted. There are a few factors that play to the advantage of the heavier rider, but they are hard to compute and they are far less important than drag.

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Yeah, I saw the font difference and I hope you caught the jest - but I'll be sure to point it out now because too much is lost in writing - I was writing in jest. Also, didn't you see Dan's aero shootout comments where he compared this forum to an academic journal? I didn't get that he was writing in jest... but I kind of like those standards and the aerotest they possibly contributed to.

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wovebike.com | Wove on instagram

Well yeah, I thought the entire internet was an academic journal because everything on the internet is true! /Pink
We will see in a few weeks how everything plays out, will be very interesting!

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

AB will be very dominant in 70.3. I can only see Gomez or Sanders (depending on that day race dynamics) being able to compete against him.

But I don't see him racing well in an Ironman. The way he runs, in my opinion, is not sustainable in a marathon in an Ironman race.

I can't wait to see the predictions thread for this race.