Depends on expectations. If we are patient especially on men, then maybe. If we think they should be there in 18 months or else, no I don't see it on the men's side. I think the specifity is simply too extreme on the men with how the men push from the gun.

I think what we are seeing with women is that they are finally starting to slowly be aggressive in all aspects. They have to be to have a shot vs Gwen type of runner.

Now where I hope the NCAA pipeline improves is in area of D1 schools giving money so they don't have to go run or swim only. Who's going to join ASU at the big boy money table?

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Brooks, you're so right. This thread wouldn't exist if there was a system of U23 triathlon in place that bridged the junior-senior elite gap.


Does it have to be D1 though? In fact, if we're looking at a resolution to help both our men and women would a more relaxed atmosphere like D2 or even 3 where a coach could run a men's and women's program concurrently. Also, and this is a bit of a tangent, 1/4 of the ASU team would not go on to race the Olympics for the USA (I'm assuming); Ahrens (GER) and Wagner (CAN).

Ian

You left out the most important part of the equation if you want a fair answer, how fast did he/does he swim? What is his 500SCY time, what can he repeat lets say 20x100's on the 1;20 at?

To me this is the biggest hurdle he will have/or not, if he has to learn how to swim after 4 years or he just has to get back in shape in the pool.

Monty, sure, there's not much of a discussion around "can he hold a wheel on the bike after 4 years of running" the question is can get get his swim back or is a 4 year break a bridge too far? That's what we'll have to wait and see.

Ian

Does it have to be D1 though?

__________

Look at the 2016 JE Nationals top 10-


These 4 athletes I know are college freshman:


NCAA Tri:
-Bonney, Queens Uni


D1/D2 Running:
-Knibb, Cornell
-Spearing, Cornell
-Dellarova, Col Mines


One girl from Iowa Naughton, I don't know if she is in college (race age was 18), or not.

I'll let you come up with your own theory as to why this is the case.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Brooks, here's my theory...I'm eager to hear yours.

The financial benefit to the athlete (athlete's family as the case may be) is better to go D1 and since we (triathlon) only have two D1 programs right now (ASU and East Tennessee State). That suggests an athlete would have more options for trading an education for athletics via single sport rather than triathlon.

Jocelyn at Queens is a problematic example for several reasons but yeah, I get that.

Ian

I think you're underestimating how hard the bike is for the guys. He can build that but it's hard. It took Gwen a few years in the women's race to start biking well and that's a much less difficult bike ride compared to the guys.

"I think you're underestimating how hard the bike is for the guys"

No, I'm not underestimating the bike. I know all about both the skill and power output required at top level DL racing. I'm appropriately emphasizing the real issue for a former top level junior who takes 4 years out of the water to dedicate themselves to running.


And that's what I'm so eager to see. Hunter and others have done it. What I'm eager to see is - can we still get away with that. Or, maybe...with top run times being what they are...wouldn't it be refreshing to discover that a 4 year run commitment is what's needed to be competitive? That'd be an interesting outcome.


Ian

But how fast of a swimmer is he now? You know as well as I do that getting back to a time is umpteen times easier than trying to achieve it in the first place. Is he a 5 minute 500SCY guy or thereabouts?

My theory? When you are limited in what you can offer academically, it's going to be a tough sell to these athletes and more importantly to the mom and dad's of these athletes who are all very smart people. We are talking about very smart and gifted people in the classroom as well as in the sport.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

"But how fast of a swimmer is he now?"

I don't know. We can get a glimpse of what kind of swimmer he was then...

• PATCO Championship he won in 2013. The fastest swim on that day was 10:14 and Tony was out in 10:43 (30th in a field of 63).
• 2012 he got 2nd at the Jr Cup in Tiszy and there the fastest time of the day was 5:49 and Tony was out in 6:39 - Huffman was 6:21.
• Perhaps the most telling is Beijing 2011 - Tony swam a 10:04, Kanute 9:15, Sullwald 9:28, Verzbicas 9:24.

Ian

Ok got ya. He is at best a 2nd pack swimmer, more likely in a top level race with 70 guys, 3rd pack. He is going to have his work cut out for him then at the end of 4 years of running, probably at the very least 2 years of a very strong swim focus in order to even be able to attempt lead pack swimming. Wont matter what his run is, it will be blown 16 minutes into the race as he will always be a chaser. He obviously can swim well, but he has to make that jump in technique, not just a fitness thing like for instance in Lance's case..

What are front pack swimmers able to do for a set like 20x100? I doubt he'll be in the front pack this year. But as mentioned earlier, maybe in a couple years.

What are front pack swimmers able to do for a set like 20x100?

I would say at about a minute at a minimum or so for SCY on the 1;20 base. Could go +/- depending on how well one is in OW, that could be worth several seconds either way..

Nope, doubt it. Unless he has kept a little bit of swim bike going he would need a phenominal run to be anywhere near the guys of today. remember in many of the WTS races now the top 5 are all running sub 30 off the bike.
This to me doesn't look promising "Smoragiewicz (Rapid City, S.D.) won his first Aquathlon Nationals title in 52:00, due in part to his 31:55 10k run split."
if that is his run split for 10k after only a 1500 swim he isn't going to be up there with the big boys.

1500m3:48.63Tempe (USA)26.03.2016
3000m8:06.64Durham (USA)02.04.2016
3000m ind.8:02.62Nashville (USA)15.01.2016
5000m13:55.19Eugene (USA)10.06.2016
10,000m29:50.98Charlottesville (USA)18.04.2015
5 km Road14:49San José (USA) 24.11.2016

Maybe I am a bit harsh but these are his pb's at 22. there are others already racing who would be faster over 10k who are full time training triathletes.

I agree with you Chris, if those are truly his PB times, he would have a hard time just keeping up with the top 10 runners in ITU if he sat out the swim and bike and just started the run with the boys. He is going to have to improve his running along with the other two sports to be top 10 in the big races. It will be a several year plan it looks to me, but it appears he may have the raw materials for the job. Just need to see if he has "IT""..

those times were off the all athletics.com website. It is an international data base for IAAF sanctioned events. I am just checking on few other young guns who also race triathlon that I can find on the site, just for comparison.

Gordon Benson 1994 same year of birth. look at the dates of his races.. was about 17 for most. must then gone full time triathlon
800m1:58.21Stretford (GBR)22.07.2012
1500m3:54.93Stretford (GBR)01.06.2010
3000m8:21.27Stretford (GBR)01.05.2011
5000m14:28.52Stretford (GBR)17.08.2013
5 km Road14:23Armagh (GBR)22.02.2015
10 km Road30:27Leeds (GBR) 17.11.2013

Jacob Birtwhistle, born 1995, most these would been done about age 17, 10k is a bit later so maybe 19
800m1:53.40Hobart (AUS)03.11.2012
1500m3:51.19Sydney (AUS)18.03.2012
3000m8:09.12Melbourne (AUS)08.12.2012
5000m14:19.52Melbourne (AUS)22.11.2012
2000mSC6:13.96Melbourne (AUS)04.12.2010
10 km Road29:23Sydney (AUS) 02.05.2015

Dorian Coninx, born 1994 these were done at same age as Smoragiewicz pb's, 22
10 km Road29:11Cannes (FRA)21.02.2016
20 km Road1:05:38Cassis (FRA) 25.10.2015

Thanks for the heads up, Ian..

Aren't we already seeing this scenario unfold with Matt McElroy..
I would say the early indications are pretty good...

And from what it looks like, TS may be starting from a better swimming foundation than Matt.

I wish both of these athletes all the luck in the world...it's exciting to have some young guns in the pipline

---

"Good genes are not a requirement, just the obsession to beat ones brains out daily"...the Griz

i don't think comparing what Kemper did 20+ years ago is as relevant as you imply because the quality of the fields is MUCH stronger and deeper than they were in the 1990s. until the Bs showed up, nobody drilled the entire race from the starting gun to the finish line like they usually do (especially in the big races, like rio). as people have noted above, his first barrier is going to be improving his swim so he is a 2nd pack swimmer (with mola and murray). then he is going to have to develop his legs so he can run off a hard bike (murray can do that much better than mola can). then he is going to have to improve his run because, as noted above, his times from running full-time are slower than the top tier of guys who don't only focus on the run. it's a tough hill to climb but he has 3 years to try and make it work.

For ITU racing? I say absolutely not. I think someone with a strong enough background in swimming can still get away with that for 70.3 and Ironman racing for now. But I do wonder how long that will last. If Mixed Relay - and pro-team mixed relay - takes off, as well as something like Super League, that will likely increase the time that long course is a bastion for folks who did something other than focus on triathlon from an early age, but if the current king and queen of Kona are any indication, it's unlikely that we'll see another Kona world champ who took that path.

Triathlon is one sport, not three.

---

"Non est ad astra mollis e terris via." - Seneca | rappstar.com | FB - Rappstar Racing | IG - @jordanrapp

Did you even finish reading the OP?

"Here's what I'm waiting (and wanting) to see...can an athlete now, in today's level of triathlon, commit to single sport for 4 years then return to multisport and be great."

---

"Good genes are not a requirement, just the obsession to beat ones brains out daily"...the Griz

Yeah Mag, I don't know what it is....is it short attention span where we don't read things completely or is it this idea of "I'm anonymous on a form, I must be contrarian" or what.....but your point is my point. Hunter was able to do it 20 years ago, I worry it's not possible to do it now - "it" being go 4 years as a single sporter and return to tri and be dominant (or even participant).

And it's not just about Tony starting back in 10 days it's about other top juniors who go and commit to college for 4 years as a runner because $30k in debt is daunting and why not come out of college with a clean financial slate and hope they can get back up to speed on...as Rapp points out, the sport of triathlon...rather than pay for school and try and keep on as an elite triathlete during that time.

Some women will get a scholarshiped triathlon experience and I suspect it'll help our US women stay thick at the top but our men have a much harder row to hoe.

Ian

Not to mention there are heaps of kids joining that are faster on day 1. We have a kid who will be youth elite this year 14 turning 15. 16:35 1500, strong runner

---

___________________________________________
http://en.wikipedia.org/...eoesophageal_fistula
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cerebral_palsy
2020 National Masters Champion - M40-44 - 400m IM
Canadian Record Holder 35-39M & 40-44M - 200 m Butterfly (LCM)

I think the problem would be focusing on one sport and still not getting to top
-10 level. If the above time is accurate, Tony's college PB is around 1:30 slower than McElroy's.

Obviously there could be tons of factors at play - injury, dedicated student, whatever. My understanding is that Gwen's run times now are faster than her Wisconsin times.

Knibb seems different to me as she already has a killer bike and seems to swim well. If she can come out a super runner, that is great.

Obviously pure runners don't always translate to tri, but it seems like you need to be at least under 29 as a D1 runner to have a chance at being a contender...and the more swim and bike experience, the better.

---

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

You absolutely underestimate both how hard it is to stay on the wheel if two of AB, JB and Gomez are hammering straight out of the water, and also how much the effort required to do that can kill a weak biker's running legs.

Besides he's never going to be front pack with those swim times. He swam a 9.30 in the 2013 u23 grand final in London. Birtwhistle who's known to be a poor swimmer swam 8.54. Birtwhistle swam 17.42 in the final in Cozumel last year - Brownlee went 16.52.

If there was a kid in the US who ran in college and could do a sub 29min 10k who had a pretty extensive swimming background when they were in school I'd say they might have a shot at emulating someone like Mola. But that only makes you competitive for the podium about 50% of the time.

About 40 guys ran under 14mins for the 5000 at some point in 2016 in the US college system. Can any of them swim? Who knows.

To be fair the 10000m time is not nearly as strong as the mile or the 5000. You could interpret that 2 ways. First, he didn't race the 10000m to set a PR. Alternatively, he is more of a shorter distance guy who doesn't move up in distance well. If I was a betting man, I would favor the former.

That being said, the question being posed that I find most interesting is this: if an athlete (from the US) is talented on the junior level in triathlon, what should this individual do when he or she turns 18 years old? Should this athlete join an international training squad right away and limp around financially while hoping to develop a sustainable triathlon career? Should this athlete take a 4 year scholarship or partial scholarship to focus on a swimming or running? Should this athlete join a college triathlon program, meager though they may be? I don't know if Tony's case will answer this question, but it will be interesting to see.

Ultimately I think he is fundamentally a different case from peers like McElroy, but he is perhaps the experimental arm if Kevin McDowell is the control.

It's interesting because here's what we recently have seen within the US pipeline:

-1 elite junior went the "triathlon in college" and made Olympic team- kanute

-US women really are all "collegiate single sport" who can transition fairly well.

-4 top juniors who have scored top 3 at junior worlds and or triathlon junior Olympic race in past 3 years all have taken single sport scholarships none in triathlon (Jenks, Knibb, Gorman, Hindman). ETA: Knibb is at Ivy League so not on *scholarship* athletically atleast.

Men have almost no tri scholarship options and women have 2 D1 programs currently.

-this is a sport that has what 10 people making $100k a year from winnings (not counting federation funding/sponsor support).

-the key issue is this....I don't know how many of these top juniors go into D1 programs with idea of tri as cross training learn that the single sport demands on them are just too much that they stop cross training with triathlon. This happened with TS and is happening with a few others. Of course some are actually able to cross train, but most others I'm seeing are only able to do it during summer.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

My daughter has been in triathlon since she was 10. She follows both ITU and long course pros like I followed the Miami Dolphins and Dan Marino when I was her age. This year she will race in her last year as a Youth Elite at age 15. If you ask her, she identifies herself as a triathlete, despite being on a year round swim team and running XC for her high school. If you ask her what she wants to do post high school she will tell you turn pro, race ITU and take a shot at the Olympics or run for Oregon! She knows how fast the ITU swim is and at this point in her athletic career does not want to give that up post high school. The POINT is, she does NOT say do triathlon at college X. From a parents perspective I realize that a 15 year old girl's priorities and bodies change very quickly but we support her current goals.

The whole women's triathlon scene in college is in its young years, but if you take the top college girls who are doing triathlon and raced them in a Junior Elite race, they would be destroyed by the Junior Elite girls who are still in high school. The current crop of pointy end talent in the Junior Elite ranks have come through the USAT's Youth Elite system and have many years of triathlon experience. If the NCAA wants to get serious about providing bridge for U23 talent post Junior Elite Racing they need to show these girls that they will continue their progression in triathlon, in addition to getting a free education. There are not any widespread college options that a girl who is leaving the ranks of the Junior Elite racing has other than single sport. The argument to this is that there are only a handful of girls that have the desire and athletic talent to make a career in triathlon and maybe colleges do not need to target them, but it would be great to see all of the top Junior Elite girls continue to race eachother post high school in college.

Tony got his elite card this weekend, and pulled out of today's race as I assume he declared the card of yesturdays podium performance. He's being coached by Greg mueller.

Clermont put in new rule this year that because of back to back races, Saturday's elite card qualifiers *could* declare their elite status and thus would roll down results in Sunday's races. They also could wait/decline immediate elite status and thus if top 3 American, non pro would take up an elite slot. Very good move to try and allow up to 6 cards on the table per gender.

US races he can enter in coming weeks (along with any international itu races)

Sarasota CC next weekend
richmond CC first of may

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

From my understanding, to swim front pack at a WTS race you need to complete this set:
3x5x100y on 1:15 avg 53-56. 30 seconds of rest between rounds.

---

Inside The Big Ring: Podcast & Coaching

I think he swam today, he did have a swim split and t1 time. The swim was very rough, two girls were pulled out unconscious. As for Tony's run he did get smashed by a true triathlete from Stanford on the run, so that's an interesting development.

As for the 3x5x100yards in 53-56 on 1:15, more like on 1:05.

Smashed? 20 second difference is hardly being smashed. What do you mean a "true" triathlete? Are you saying Tony isn't a true triathlete.

and for the 3x5x100... it is not on a 1:05.

---

Inside The Big Ring: Podcast & Coaching

I agree that 20 seconds isn't getting smashed.

Most readers would interpret that "true triathlete" statement as referring to someone that has consistently trained in all three disciplines, as opposed to Tony who has been basically all run-focus as a D1 runner at Michigan for the past four years. No need to read more into it than that.

I think it is too early to make any judgement's about Tony's potential, especially on the run. He obviously has catching up to do on the swim and bike, and we all know how much swim and bike fitness helps you achieve your potential on the run.

BTW, I posted your 3x5 set on Facebook and it generated some great discussion. As a fan of the sport I appreciate when knowledgeable folks like you chime in.

---

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

For what it's worth in regards to swim times for the front pack of ITU races, the USA Triathlon swim tests for collegiate swimmers looking to enter the Collegiate Recruitment Program are as follows, in yards times...

1x100 from a push on :52
1:00 rest
1x500 from a push on 5:05
---------------------------------------
3x (8x100 on 1:10, :30 rest)
Males need to average :58 on these.

I'd say that could put you towards the front of an ITU WTS swim for sure if you're able to complete that.

Just for reference, if anyone's curious about swim times. Last year in WTS Olympic Distance races, here's the average for the top 10 swim times in the field that day. (W) represents wetsuit swim.

Cozumel - 16:55.60
Stockholm (W) - 17:37.50
Leeds (W) - 17:06.80
Yokohama - 16:13
Gold Coast - 16:15.30
Abu Dhabi - 17:45.90

A 16:59 (avg.) 1500 meter swim works out to 1:02 / 100 yds. So that test 3x (8x100 on 1:10, :30 rest) holding :58 is, in my opinion, a great measuring stick for a top-10 swim in the ITU today.

#1 a true triathlete meant "not a d1 runner"., it was in no way about Tony. He showed up really well for being out of triathlon for four years. 25 seconds in actual distance was smashed, in a flat itu race 25 seconds is an eternity, just as with an elite 5k race. I was there, the Stanford kid out ran him easily and the came out of t2 together. I would guess that the intention was to finish top 3 and go from there so maybe he just cruised but it was not close at all.

As for crp requirements, etc, what a front pack itu swim requires, I know what I know and arguing here makes not one bit of difference. Quite frankly if you coach an American itu racer, by all means shoot for :58 on 1:15.

I don't think we can fairly read much into his performance this weekend other then checking off the box he needed to check off. Taking 3ish years away from swim/bike training is going to cause the run to suffer, no matter how *great* a runner you are, itu running is just that specific. So come back in 18 months and then see where he stands, that's a much better viewpoint to take.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Austin Hindman actually was still in HS when you posted this and just competed this past weekend here in MO at the State Track meet and had a pretty impressive weekend with gold in 4 events, 800, 1,600, 3,200, and 4x800. In the 3,200, his final event, he broke Matt Tegenkamp's state record! Here is a great write up on the feat:
http://mo.milesplit.com/...-has-no-speed-limits

What I think is great about him is that while he will be running for the University of Missouri, it sounds like they will be giving him considerable flexibility which will include training with the swim team:


from - http://terrain-mag.com/...view-austin-hindman/

---

Tony
http://www.triathleteguru.com

i think one thing everyone overlooks here is that tony was an engineering major, not a cakewalk, he chose michigan primarily for its academics, and a single-sport focus is really not a single-sport focus when you're in college. it's just a different kind of "multisport", where you're a part time athlete while you're a full time student.

as with gwen, who went from 33-mid to 32-low after moving out from under her college commitments, let's see what happens to tony when, for the first time in his life, he gets to try out triathlon without having his time dominated by scholastic imperatives.

---

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

That's great news but one of those things where we've seen it before w other top junior triathletes going single sport route. But then again I get why these kids the need to stop tri training when they are at the D1 single sport environment. But one trend I hope that continues is schools allowing for cross training. Why?

Because these juniors are the 1st generation of athletes of truly are "triathletes" more than they are swimmers or runners. Their succcess can really be detailed to the multisport structure of elite training. So I just hope the pressure (whether team/peer/coach/personal) doesn't lead to him stopping cross training after a year like previous cases....but i get the situation and environment can lead these athletes to making decision to only single sport train during college (especially when on college's dime).

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

It's eluded to in several places in this thread...the idea of fatigue from overall pressure. Smorg was given the flexibility to swim/bike during his commitment in Ann Arbor but found it was just too much. As Dan mentions - maybe it was because of the heavy major. Austin too is given the room to cross train but will he? Will it be just too daunting? Will the whole college experience be so much that he has to pass on swim/bike workouts to keep his grades up, to be a part of the run team the way he wants to be? Only time will tell.

Tony got 2nd in Clermont in March at the EDR and earned his elite card. April he got 4th at the ITU CC sprint in Bermuda; 50" off Eli Hemming's 5k and Eli's an example of someone who forgoes college to remain a triathlete after high school. 4th at the ITU CC in Richmond - 5k was 30" faster than Seth Rider who is another example of full time multisport after HS rather than single sport college.

This is the ongoing experiment. I want Tony to succeed and Austin and Eli and Seth and Alec Willimovsky and more. There are so many paths the juniors can take and we need larger, long term samples to get a sense of what the most probable scenarios for success.

Ian

---

Ian Murray
http://www.TriathlonTrainingSeries.com
I like the pursuit of mastery
Twitter - @TriCoachIan

So it looks like Austin is targeting the 2020 Olympics at which time he will be a junior - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqPP5yaIYxY

Do you think school choice might make a big difference on the success of the triathlete? Trying to remain a multisport athlete while running for a team like the Oregon Ducks with a storied running program versus Mizzou that isn't a known running powerhouse?

Hopefully Austin is able to resist any pressure that might be put on him to focus more/strictly on running. I would guess that is what happened with Lukas V. and why he left Oregon. Definitely exciting to see some of the potential in these younger athletes! Makes it even more so when they are competing at the local university where I swim and train!

---

Tony
http://www.triathleteguru.com

"Hopefully Austin is able to resist any pressure that might be put on him to focus more/strictly on running."

Put a competitive athlete with good values on a team, in a program and he's gonna what to do right by them: “I definitely want to be able to compete at the top of the NCAA level,” he said. “I’m going to want to run four years in college. And I just be the best I can be, help my team win some big titles and help build the program the best I can.”


http://featured.flosports.tv/...eat-from-the-midwest


Ian

---

Ian Murray
http://www.TriathlonTrainingSeries.com
I like the pursuit of mastery
Twitter - @TriCoachIan

Not just to you Brooks but to the general of tracking this "test subject"...Tony Smoragiewicz has had 2 more races under his belt since this thread ended:
CAMTRI Ottawa - 9th (June 17th)
CAMTRI Des Moines - 2nd (today)
The quality of field was similar. Paquet, Lori & Brennan Smith (all CAN) are perhaps the best comparisons and that would suggest that Tony's swim is improving.

Ian

---

Ian Murray
http://www.TriathlonTrainingSeries.com
I like the pursuit of mastery
Twitter - @TriCoachIan

Curious: how do FOP/pro swim times compare to swimmer swim times? My 20yo college kid is doing 20x100 on the 1:10 coming in < 1:00 on each set during water polo practice. If they miss the 1:00 they have to tack on another 100. Of course, they are 6 days a week in the water....

---

Hillary Trout
San Luis Obispo, CA

Your trip is short. Make the most of it.
https://www.slogoing.net/

TS went beast mode today on first lap of bike. Solid result for him today.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Those sound like pretty fast times for a water polo practice. I'd say a top pro like Potts or Frodo could do that set but even for them it would be challenging. When they were "pure swimmers", they could prob do that set routinely but they're not swimming as fast now due to spending 80%-ish of their training time on the B and R.

---

"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

From racing amateurs for his elite card back in march in Clermont EDR to now racing the big boys on WTS level at Edmonton this weekend. Fun last few months for him.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Big swim test this weekend with Varga and JB in the field. If the focus on cleaning up the swim violence continues, I think that really helps Smoragiewicz. I think he could find himself in or amongst Murray and Mola. Unrelated, is he in any kind of training group at the moment?

Yes he's in a training squad in South Bend coached by Greg Mueller, Innovative Endurance (Team IE).

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

There's a few folks of interest for me this weekend...

• Paula Findlay (CAN) always eager to see a reboot
• Daniel Hoy (NZL) he's still 19, it'll be his first WTS. I was there when he got 2nd at the Youth Olympic Games in Nanjing in 2014 and he races ALOT 10+ DL events a year
• Taylor Spivey because she's from Los Angeles and I've loved watching her progression over the years. A big jump recently.
• Smorag because of all the things mentioned in this thread
• Knibb watching the youth and junior arc and it speaks to the foundation of the US Olympic pipeline.
• Frintova (CZE) she's the oldest in the field at 34 and her triathlon career just started 5 years ago (swimmer previous).
• All the Spanish men: Javi, Alarza, Mola such a powerful mix right now, it's like US women.
• Rodrigo Gonzales (MEX) he was in a Junior Select camp I coached out of Chula 10 years ago. So hot and cold: 4th at Chengdu, 6th at Hautulco but lapped out at Rio and Yokohama.
• Eli Hemming (see Knibb)

Ian

---

Ian Murray
http://www.TriathlonTrainingSeries.com
I like the pursuit of mastery
Twitter - @TriCoachIan

So, what is the assessment? Held onto the pack on the swim, missed the pack on the bike but chased back on eventually only to get dropped again on the last lap, then ran pretty well to finish with some other Americans. Not bad for WTS debut, but obviously has work to do. By the way, I was impressed with the behavior of the whole field at the swim turn buoys. That course has some tighter turns than we have become accustom to seeing on WTS level but I thought the violence was much reduced compared to prior years.

It's a great step in analyzing the progress. Smorg finished right behind Eli (same time) and Eli's a great example of "the other path", the one where high school ends and a full-time commitment to multisport continues. Of course we can't get a resolution to this big question (in subject line) by comparing just two athletes but I agree - a nice WTS debut.

The disparity in the times continues to shock: two guys ran 19+ for 5k while 4 guys race in the 14:xx range. Varga was out of the water in 8:37 and Smorg was 9:12. As his swim improves I think we can expect to see faster run times just because the chasing bike group often creates more stress.

It's still very early for him and the curve in this first year is already steep. Excited to revisit this thread as the years roll on.

Ian

---

Ian Murray
http://www.TriathlonTrainingSeries.com
I like the pursuit of mastery
Twitter - @TriCoachIan

Austin Hindman is out when it comes to seeing what comes of a 4 year running commitment! https://mutigers.com/...-project-podium.aspx

---

Tony
http://www.triathleteguru.com

the part i didn't see in that article is whether austin is going to continue his education while training as a pro triathlete or, if not, what his plans are for his 50 post-pro-triathlon years.

---

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

yes he is. eta: You just have to think of it differently now in that it's athlete 1st, education 2nd...IE-online classes and maybe/maybe not "full time" student.

When you are D1 scholarship athlete, you have to take a full time workload to stay eligible...for most of college it's 12 hours (4 ish classes).

Podium project they may take 3 classes, may take 2 classes, may take 1 online class because they are traveling to XYZ countries for a semester. I can totally see them having a lighter course load in spring than fall simply because of them likely traveling much more then to races in Australia etc.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Isn’t the project podium tied in with ASU? The press release made it sound an awful lot like that experiment a few years back in Colorado. That didn’t really pan out.

yes it's tied to ASU.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I think a university partner makes a ton of sense. They didn’t get it quite right the first time, but I bet (hope) they learned from it.

---

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

i'd like to know more about this. the first go-round they were going to the colorado school of mining and nursing, or some such place. this has been a point of contention of mine going back to the mid-90s, where USAT wants medals. justifies its existence thru medals. and is quite happy to bribe young talent out of a paid education in order to get those medals.

unless i'm mistaken there's one thing tony is that austin isn't (yet). anyone? anyone? an engineer. so, if USAT has got this right, and is providing for a first class education, then fine. i'm very happy if that's the case.

---

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

Just found this: https://www.teamusa.org/...ona-State-University

---

Tony
http://www.triathleteguru.com

So, move to Tempe, go to ASU part time and get coached by Cliff English full time...is that the deal you get?

---

Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

Cliff is the manager of the program, Parker Spencer is going to be the head coach.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Sounds like the emphasis will be on online classes per the link. Probably a great option for the right students. Get a college degree from a decent and well recognized institution while pursuing your passion. The difference between this and the caliber of education Tony got (or Rapp, Ben Collins, etc) will be night and day though I'd imagine. All depends on what you wanted to start with. Not everyone can or wants to get an engineering degree from Princeton.

Everyone's path is different obviously, but I wonder if the bigger risk a lot of these developing athletes make is in staying 100% committed to the sport for too long. The universe of athletes who make a decent living doing this is very small. Probably better to hang it up at 28 when you aren't getting the results you hoped and start a new career, vs. starting over at 38. Recognize moving on after you've put your blood sweat and tears into the sport is easier said than done though! Different sport, but I know a guy who was a starter in the NFL his rookie year. He was worried about concussions and retired to take a seemingly great job on Wall St. 2 years later he's going back on the free agency market to try his hand again! Sometimes the heart wants what the heart wants I guess.

Well, I didn't look at the program specifically as I went to look at the ASU Tri staff and remembered whom Cliff was when he was hired here two years ago.

---

Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

I'm sitting with the perspective of "last in"...."first out".

Four or Five years ago one of my HPT (High Performance Team) Juniors, Dillon Nobbs was selected into the Elite Triathlon Academy. This was the previous offer for U23/Collegiate triathletes. USAT (and others) did a nice job with instate tuition at the University of Colorado Colorado Springs, some facilities/services at the OTC, and housing. During Dillon's second year there was a dramatic shift in the coaching staff, and that seemed to be the last straw for the program - it fizzled. Dillon is a great guy, he's going to walk a fantastic life path. I wish his athletic talents could have been nurtured a bit more but he's happy and the Earth is lucky to have him on it.

Today one of my HPT Juniors, Duncan Reid who is 20 now, earned his elite card at the beginning of the year, has race some ITU Conti Cups, and the recent MLT in Vail. He's currently only 340 spots behind Mario Mola in the ITU World Ranking ;). Duncan is part of this introductory class at Project Podium along with Austin Hindman, Luis Ortiz (just finished 2nd at Junior Elite Nationals last weekend), and several players to be named later (maybe later today).

I have great confidence in Project Podium in terms of it's longevity. Rocky Harris (USAT's new CEO) is a very likable, no-nonsense, get-shit-done kinda guy. You feel it when you meet him. He's got a rich history at ASU. Cliff English is there to manage. Parker Spencer is the Head Coach - he's committed and was deeply motivated to grow his previous program at Liberty University.

At the beginning of the year we knew that Project Podium was gonna happen but there was some delay in the process - USAT's Director of High Performance, Andy Schmitz was leaving after doing a phenomenal job. The chronological order required a new Director of HP and I think we've got a great one in John Farra. Then he could lead the hiring process of a head coach in Project Podium. I have had numerous conversations with Parker - starting back when he was still at Liberty, and then many recently while Duncan and I were trying to decide if he should return to Oberlin College for another year of swimming or commit to Project Podium. One of our final concerns was what would be the quality of the team. This announcement of Austin's move alleviates so much of that. Duncan's got a big brain, his family values education, he's been thinking logically about his life after sport. He'll be joining Barrett, the Honors College at ASU.

I'm excited about Project Podium. It can serve as a bridge between a strong youth and junior development system that Steve Kelley has created and our senior elites. This gives many of our best high school males a chance that our high school females now have with NCAA triathlon programs. I think we'll see the trajectory of our male athletes get steeper and the talent pool get deeper.

If I were a coach in Oceania I might say I was chuffed. I hope I don't feel gutted any time soon.

Ian

---

Ian Murray
http://www.TriathlonTrainingSeries.com
I like the pursuit of mastery
Twitter - @TriCoachIan

That sounds like a great situation, especially in lieu of D1 tri. Wasn’t Rocky Harris the AD at ASU? I would imagine this would really nurture athletic and academic talents for these guys.

---

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

Not AD but close - COO of athletics

austin is the real deal. he ran 8:43 for 3200 in HS. as a triathlete. now, to place that in perspective, lucas ran 8:29 for 2mi, which was maybe 8:25 for 3200m. but he was a freak. he was arguably the 2nd best HS performer all time behind jim ryun, and far and away the fastest ever over 3200m. austin had the 2nd fastest time in the nation last year and it wasn't a fluke year; he'd have been the fastest had he run his time this year, and by a fair bit.

i would be surprised if anyone in the top 50 or so in the ITU right now ran as fast as an 18yo as austin did. so, he's got the capacity, in the run. if we took these athletes that run so fast in HS in the US as triathletes, lucas, tony, daniel vertiz, austin, and kept them healthy, and slotted them right into high performance tri, yes, we'd be the equal on the world stage of any country.

however, here's what we do that other countries don't, to my knowledge: our men and our women retire from triathlon with college degrees in their pockets. show me the pathway by which the kids who move to tempe end up with math and science degrees (and if it takes them 6 or 7 years, that's fine). not degrees in marketing or communications. thanks, but a kid's adult future is not worth a medal. to me.

---

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

Just my two cents on the program as someone who was initially approached about doing the UCCS program at its inception.

-It seems like in all of their press releases USAT is not even recognizing the original UCCS program, as if this ASU program is the first of its kind. It seems to me like this is the exact same language/mindset that they used leading up to the launch of the UCCS program. Ian, have you heard at all about what USAT has said they have "learned" from the failures/successes of the UCCS program and what changes they are implementing with the ASU site? I think they also need to be a bit clearer in their language around how the academic relationship with ASU will go about; the fact that they were so vague about the relationship with UCCS was a big turn off for me.
-So is this going to have a 2024 focus? Surely this is too late to go after 2020 with the Olympic points cycle already underway.
-As good of a guy as he may be, I'm still struggling to wrap my head around hiring a high performance director without any background in the sport of triathlon. I have heard from multiple pros trying to talk to him about specifics with regards to swim/bike/run training metrics, strategies for racing, etc. with him having to refer to other people to answer the questions. With two years to go before the Olympics, I'm interested in hearing other people's take on that.

---

The Gram: @agyenis
My latest story on Swimswam: More than a title

So the USAT press release just landed in my inbox. I see Erick Armes in on the list and that's cool. He's a great guy and talented. Nick Johnson and Chase McQueen as well. Nice!

To your points. USAT has had many changes since the ETA and there's not much talk about that program - nor do I think there needs to be. Because of our women's success: packing the top of the rankings with US women AND the NCAA push - there is a realization to the definitive need for a men's program - and, by the way, this isn't the only option for college level, draft legal men: Sonni Dyer at Queens has a program and the new NCAA team at Mesa College in Grand Junction, Colorado will have a DL men's team too. Also, speaking to why Project Podium should work is the seamless nature of it's launch: Rocky's history at ASU + ASU's NCAA women's team + USAT's support. It just feels like it's being built with great cohesiveness that the ETA.

This will not have a specific 2024 - this will have a development focus. Most of the names on team this fall are still Juniors (18 & 19 years old). Some of those kids will only be 24 come Paris and that's still pretty young - and, most importantly, the conversations I've had speak more towards making great athletes long term rather than..."let's see if we can get the whole squad WTS ready but next season".

I hear you about the HP Dir not have tri background - he does have Olympic endurance background (nordic ski), and he also has a solid brain trust around him: Barb Lindquist (College Recruitment Program), Steve Kelley (Junior Development), Bobby McGee (run and now triathlon guru), Jerrod Evans (Nat Development Head Coach), Courtney Kulick, and more. I think fresh eyes might be a nice benefit.

Ian

What makes you think that? I can't speak to triathlon specifically, but I know of a number of retired Dutch field hockey and speed skating stars with MD degrees. And those are two of Holland's most prestigious athletic pursuits. I can't imagine why somebody like Rachel Klamer or Maya Kingma (from my hometown!) wouldn't be able follow a similar trajectory.

(Now cycling on the other hand... :-)

---

Citizen of the world, former drunkard. Resident Traumatic Brain Injury advocate.

Wow - this list appears to have a lot of firepower. American ITU fans should be excited, right? I assume Hindman is the “McDonalds All-American” 5-star prospect of the bunch, but all seem pretty accomplished.

https://www.teamusa.org/...-Development-Program

---

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

Ortiz is the real deal.

I raced against him in a sprint in Florida earlier this year. He destroyed me by 10 mins and I did a 1:01.

He also destroyed Joe Umphenour who took third place behind another male pro. If you don't know who Joe is...he is the guy that just missed out on an Olympic spot to Joe Maloy.

I REALLY hope you are kidding with this comment...

---

Inside The Big Ring: Podcast & Coaching

There must be some mix up. Umphenour appears to be in his late 40s and it looks like he last raced at the top level in 2009 - here. Maybe he lost out to someone for the 2004 Olympics?

---

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

This thread started as something of a "Smorg Watch" and so I thought today would be a good day to make an update...

Tony raced his first Standard Distance WTS in Montreal last weekend 18 months after earning his pro card (after graduating Michigan and ending his run commitment). His swim was 17:46 - Schomann was first out in 17:08, eventual winner Mola was 17:35. Tony ran a 33:28 - Mola had the fastest of the day @ 29:48. Tony's Oly Ranking is now 47th. For those US fans scoring at home Matt McElroy is currently ranked 37th, Morgan Pearson is 40th.

Ian

---

Ian Murray
http://www.TriathlonTrainingSeries.com
I like the pursuit of mastery
Twitter - @TriCoachIan

The bike was apparently a leg zapper. Only a few people ran well. No grade for Tony on this one because what happened - a young athlete new to the sport got zapped by a deceptively hard course - is exactly what should have happened.

Out of curiosity, how exactly does Avery Evenson (another Michigan runner) fit into all of this? She took a 3 year hiatus from triathlon while running for Michigan, and then seemingly out of nowhere comes in second in the triathlon at FISU Worlds in Kalmar, Sweden. She ran a 16:11, and had the fastest swim split out of all the women with a 9:26. For someone who's been focused on track and XC for the past couple of years, its pretty impressive.

Avery has been off my radar since the Elite Triathlon Academy ended and she left Colorado Springs to go back to Michigan - I say "go back" because she, like me, is a Michigander and she returned to her home state to finish school not that she was a student in Ann Arbor and then returned to that school.

I do have no clear answer for you but I can say that two things are true: 1) Avery is a talented athlete (swim and run in high school) and 2) FISU doth not a World Cup make. FISU is legit competition but in consideration of the entire gamut of the draft legal pipeline from an F1 all the way on up to major games, FISU sits somewhere around a Continental Cup level. The woman who beat Avery at FISU was 6th recently at a World Cup and the woman who finished just behind Avery was 23rd at a recent World Cup. My guess is that Avery could be in the mix with the US top women in a couple of years baring any unforeseen dramas. As much as I'd like to say "we can only hope" the truth is that the US continues on with an embarrassment of riches as far as women go even without Gwen. So I'll save my hope for our young men to climb the ladder quickly and all the way to the top.

Ian

---

Ian Murray
http://www.TriathlonTrainingSeries.com
I like the pursuit of mastery
Twitter - @TriCoachIan

So now here we are.... almost 2 years exactly from my OP and now I want to check in...... does Tony's 2nd today at the Cape Town World Cup answer the general question: can a triathlete dedicate 4 years of college to run only and reemerge able to compete on the world stage?

Ian

---

Ian Murray
http://www.TriathlonTrainingSeries.com
I like the pursuit of mastery
Twitter - @TriCoachIan

Damn good result, and bravo to Parker, Matty Reed, and other athletes for building a squad that is getting this. This is the foundation that that group needs to gain "support" and/or sigh of relief from everyone wondering if it'll work or not. It's not the biggest stage, but it's a damn good start, and good to see Tony running those splits. I believe only 2 broke 15 mins today.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Good result for Tamara Gorman as well; she didn't have a good 2018. The US women look super deep and would be really interesting to see who makes the 2020 team

I am happy for her - 2018 was rough with some injuries. She’s bounced back from those thru high school and college so she should be a contender for the Olympic team if she can remain healthy. Not sure 2020 will be in the cards but she is definitely shooting for a 2024 bid. Knibb will be there too.

Yes

He needs to be a bit closer on the swim but THAT RUN!

---

"Good genes are not a requirement, just the obsession to beat ones brains out daily"...the Griz

Yes, but this is my point. ... 4 years running at Michigan with the swim dormant. Will the certainty, the control be there in an standard distance? Today Varga was out first (natch) in 8:01. Tony was out in 8:59. If we double it...does a 2min negate the beauty of a blistering run? The other side of the discussion is if 4 years running D1 didn't happen would the swim be 30 sec faster but the run 2min slower and then...would that be worse.

There's no answer here, it's all speculation. Austin, Duncan Reid, Erik Armes these are the new test cases. Abandoning single sport and into a high performance, DL program for college. They will be the comparisons in..say 2022ish

Ian

---

Ian Murray
http://www.TriathlonTrainingSeries.com
I like the pursuit of mastery
Twitter - @TriCoachIan

That is a great result for him! If that swim can sharpen up to chase group WTS level... Always good to see American guys up front at WCs. Just actually watching the end of 2018 WC show on Triathlon Live and was excited to see Hemming get a few podiums.

Can you expand on who Parker and Matty Reed are and what there squad is? Are we talking Olympian/ non-draft beast Big Matty Reed, the guy that showed me that tall guys can go fast?

---

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

USA Triathlon Project Podium squad. Parker Spencer is head coach and Matty (yes that one) is assistant, with Cliff English as program director I believe...

Think the swim difference is still a very salient point, and also the fact that there weren't any real standout cyclists in the front pack either, which could have really split things up. Bummed that Richard Murray couldn't race, would have been interesting to see what could have changed

---

Chasing PB Podcast Latest interview with Eli Hemming on Targeting a US MTR spot in Tokyo

I dont remember what was said earlier in the the thread about specifics w/ Tony S but I believe he started out as a "triathlete" at Michigan where he was allowed to tri train. I believe 18 months-2 years in he was just too exhausted and I believe "pressure" (not saying anyone specifically) had him take out the tri training to finish his career doing only single sport training.

Another one to compare is going to be Darr Smith- I dont know how much tri training he is even doing while running for UGA. But I also hope this becomes the outlier as the more the podium project builds up, the better option it will be. So I think getting a result (regardless of it only being a sprint, whatever you want to say) will give the program a big sigh of relief. They can now check mark that they are doing a decent enough job to get a big time international race result- not going to Barbados and only racing 13 other guys, etc. So that is a good mark for them.

Now it'll be interesting how the team continues to develop- how the "long term" athletes are handled vs the guys who can get decent results now etc. And finally how will the team roster handle yearly turnover and/or trying to get the "next" fast guy coming out of likely JE pathway.

As I said in the other thread, kudos to the whole program- that was a damn good day for the coaches and athletes.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

As i said in another thread CT is renowned for very fast run times. Yee ran the slowest winning time there for a number of years. That race has been won with runs in the 14.20's . If the course is the same and weather normal, Sunday's runs weren't special.

That’s awesome - thanks. Good for Matty. Sounded like he had a rough patch there. That beef-jerky-looking guy was my favorite pro when I started the sport, and I’m glad to see him helping the next generation.

---

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

Interesting. Wasn't this what Lew Kidder was promoting back when he discovered Shelia Taormina? The whole Sharks and Cheetahs philosophy. And we should be recruiting triathletes from the pool of single sport college athletes (after they graduate) that also happen to have some talent in the "opposite" sport.

Sorry to mansplain if you already know this - your idea is the CRP (College Recruitment Program) headed by Barb Lindquist. They have established criteria for running/ swimming times. Lots of top athletes are coming through that, including Gwen Jorgensen.

The difference here is kids like Tony and Dar were good junior elite triathletes before college. Gwen, Katie Z, Summer, etc. all became focused triathletes after college.

The question here is what is the better pathway for an aspiring triathlete - single sport NCAA focus used to be the only real viable path - at least for men, hopefully with an understanding coach, but now this Elite Development Program at Arizona State is a real alternative where guys can S/B/R in a way supported by USAT but still work towards degrees.

---

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

To compete on a consistent basis year in and year out on the men's side of ITU triathlon, you have to be an triathlete early on. There's not going to be any possible way you pull a stud runner over to itu and win a medal. You can place well in some secondary races, you maybe can even place well in an WTS race, but when it comes to brass tacks- you can't waste a second of your prime athletic career "developing" anything. You better have the goods, not spending an olympic cycle catching up.

Now on the women because there just is very little depth, you can get away with it. But not on the men's side. Of course in the U.S. that works against the men because we want a free scholarship for college and if we dont go to college that's viewed kinda oddly by middle to upper class- especially in a sport that you can't really support yourself. This isn't like tennis where you turn pro at 16 and make $50k a tourney, this is a sport that 13 people can support themselves with and all the rest are living 6 inside a 2 bedroom apartment hoping to get $750 a month from the federation.

Welcome to ITU!!!

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

2023 !!

Updates, thoughts / projections?