A normal person would be gone this year, realizing his inadequacy for the job. Unfortunately, Trump is not a normal person.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-95QqBXLG2I

The difference is that Capt. Queeg realized how batshit crazy he sounded.

---

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"Go yell at an M&M"

As I bet Windywave $50 in another thread, he is gone by 1.1.2018. Might be impeached, might resign (highly doubtful), might be removed for insanity, or might die. I don't care how it happens, as it is obvious that he is a danger to the entire planet.

i would not be surprised if he serves less than a year.

he will piss off the wrong people who can release some major dirt and he will be finished, possibly be the first president in our history jailed.

thats my big prediction.

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who's smarter than you're? i'm!

Ok so this is where we are (already going off the rails three posts in)


He's gone before Q2 2017 - 0
He's gone before Q1 2018 - 2
He's gone after serving out one term (2020) - 2
He's gone after serving out two terms (2024) - 0
He's never gone, bow down to your new overlord - 0

I would think any old dirt on him has already been dug up, so it would have to be some new sort of scandal most likely?

Next executive order: he declares himself president for life. He has the title engraved on a plaque, and his supremacy becomes irrefutable.

Or, I guess he'll just flail out the duration of a single term... but that seems far less likely.

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"The right to party is a battle we have fought, but we'll surrender and go Amish... NOT!" -Wayne Campbell

I predict he will serve his term and run again in 2020 but will be challenged in the GOP, by a number of candidates.

Paul Ryan will win the nomination and then beat the Democratic nominee for President.

You're welcome.

They're trying, my god are they trying. If dirt can be found, even if it's mostly-false dirt, it will be found.

Just a matter of if it's impeachable dirt. I wouldn't be shocked if the Russia ties are blown out of proportion and some loose threads are tied together and he's impeached for treasonous acts.

And for the record it wouldn't bother me a ton...it's obvious he's in way over his head and he's embarrassing himself and this country, and I worry what he'll do as he's continuous bombarded from all angles. This isn't a level-headed, rational person at the best of times. I don't think it would set a great precedent, but it's also fair to say Trump is rather unprecedented.

Totally impossible to say.

As much as everyone is losing their minds over his latest press conference, the fact is that there still isn't much substance there. He's not going to be removed from office because he's a loudmouthed jerk. That's how he got into office.

There are some legitimate concerns that I think could lead to real problems for him. I don't know how much of the Russian connection is true, or how much is provable, but that could derail him. And the conflicts of interests that his businesses present are going to be a continual problem for him. Possibly impeachable at a certain point.

I'm not sure his ego would allow him to declare victory after one term and walk away. And so far, his base has no real reason to abandon him, and no reason to switch back to the establishment. I can't say he wouldn't win a second term.

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"People think it must be fun to be a super genius, but they don't realize how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world."

Must I do everything?

He's gone before Q2 2017 - 0
He's gone before Q1 2018 - 2
He's gone after serving out one term (2020) - 3
He's gone after serving out two terms (2024) - 0
He's never gone, bow down to your new overlord - 1

I'll go 2024. As a society, we have solidified partisan lines on both sides leaving such a small percentage needed to win. Trump stood no chance based on his boorish behavior during the campaign, yet he pulled it off. The dems are still suffering shock and awe without really understanding why they lost. They will put up warren or somebody like her, who is still losing to trump, and they will double down on identity politics further alienating his base. He managed to alienate every single democrat that voted for Hillary and my guess is more republicans will turn out for him after seeing even a moderate amount of success, just becasue he is the republican. This means he will have an inherent advantage as president, economy can't totally reverse, but will likely increase in that time one way or another, and barring any sort of actual criminal findings, inertia will be on his side.

So you liberals better tape up your nipples because this is going to be a marathon.

---

---

"In the world I see you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Towers. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying stripes of venison on the empty car pool lane of some abandoned superhighway." T Durden

FWIW, actuaries have calculated Trump has about a 9% chance of dying before the end of a second term. Which seems remarkably low for a 70 year old man. He took a ding for his unhealthy diet. Not sure if he exercises or not, or if that was factored into the calculations (it wasn't mentioned in the article).

I laughed out loud at this. I'll go 2024.

Updated...

He's gone before Q2 2017 - 0
He's gone before Q1 2018 - 2
He's gone after serving out one term (2020) - 3
He's gone after serving out two terms (2024) - 1
He's never gone, bow down to your new overlord - 1

i said less than a year, that would be before q2 2017.

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who's smarter than you're? i'm!

Updated below, but 'before Q1 2018' is also less than a year - maybe I should have just said 'gone by 12/31/2017' but the second option was meant for any time this year; the first option is by 3/31.

He's gone before Q2 2017 - 1
He's gone before Q1 2018 - 1
He's gone after serving out one term (2020) - 3
He's gone after serving out two terms (2024) - 1
He's never gone, bow down to your new overlord - 1

I think Trump will survive the 4 years, yes he's an awful person and an adolescent to boot.
But the republicans control the levers of power and will not make any attempts to remove him.
Perhaps after the mid-terms - but I doubt that even if dems get some control of congress.
We're stuck with Trump, so thanks Duffy, JSA and various right wingers.

That was back in September of 2016 before he got elected and had historic low approval ratings a month in. Those approval ratings are going to take a toll on someone with such a fragile ego and in need of adoration.

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Suffer Well.

hahahaha ok, my stupid moment for the day, im still not used to writing 2017. i was REALLY thinking before 2q 2018 when i said less than a year, and wrote 2017 as next year.

feel free to make fun of me.

---

who's smarter than you're? i'm!

I will take 2033 when his heirs take over.

The first to be "disappeared" will NOT be liberals and illegals. Trump needs to clean house first.

Order of disappearances:
1) Principaled conservatives
2) Loudmouth conservatives
3) Loudmouth liberals
4) Business rivals
5) Random people who are "ratted out" by their neighbors over petty jealousies.

It is a long shot bet.

But I want to benefit if things go really badly.

I think there's a reasonable chance Trump is actually delusional enough that he doesn't believe such things and/or it doesn't stress him anyway. He seems to thrive on being the asshole center of attention.

You and I both know that most economic indicators today are already at pretty stellar levels. He ran on the platform that we're in terrible shape but that's simply not true - we were in terrible shape in '09. I can't see how he can deliver on his promises to his base. The market (and following that the economy) is quite likely to crash or at least correct sooner rather than later. He can blame that on a number of people but those conditions rarely favor those already in power.

I'll grudgingly accept that he'll bumble through the end of his term, the economy will be in the shitter by then and he'll lose to someone like Romney who has actual business chops.

Update!

He's gone before Q2 2017 - 0
He's gone before Q1 2018 - 2
He's gone after serving out one term (2020) - 3
He's gone after serving out two terms (2024) - 1
He's never gone, bow down to your new overlord - 2

Interestingly we have almost as many dictator picks as 'one term President'. And yet no one thinks the past three weeks indicate he's so out of control he'll be gone in the next six weeks.

I say by the end of 2017.
I have a related side bet with a friend: Russia will invade a neighbor (probably Ukraine) by the end of March.

anybody taking bets on his health? i never watched the apprentice or anything, but it seems like in the photos i've seen of him recently he really doesn't look like a well man. (nor is he getting any younger.)

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

None of the above.
Q1 2018 is too soon for him to be impeached, but he won't finish his first term.

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Suffer Well.

He's gone before Q2 2017 - 0
He's gone before Q1 2018 - 3
He's gone before serving out first term - 1
He's gone after serving out one term (2020) - 3
He's gone after serving out two terms (2024) - 1
He's never gone, bow down to your new overlord - 2

Mark me down as gone before serving his first term.

He's gone before serving out first term

Over conflict of interest from constantly going to trump corp owned businesses or properties.

---

"I think I've cracked the code. double letters are cheaters except for perfect squares (a, d, i, p and y). So Leddy isn't a cheater... "

"He's gone before Q1 2018 - 4" because he walks past a mirror late this year and sees how pale he's become. Obviously wanting to fix that and retain his unique melonesque glow, he requests that White House staffers have a new tanning bed installed, offering to pay for it himself, of course. Unfortunately, this is an old White House; the wiring is just not up to the task of his chosen tanner and cannot be sufficiently modified. "I'll settle for a local tanner," he thinks, "but only if I can have a Taco Bell & KFC combo built in the White House kitchen so I can get my delicious taco salad, fried chicken, and chalky freeze dried mashed potatoes at will." OSHA won't allow it, as too many WH staffers are allergic to the cooking oil in the air and, again, this is an old White House and proper venting cannot be built. "The media is after me," he reasons, "I'm going back to NYC where I can be the king of Trumptopia, but first I must use my executive powers and pardon myself for grabbing Hillary by the...."

I'll go with 2 terms.

He's the same as he's always been. The left still hasn't come out of their mass hallucination. They'll keep screaming like chicken little and still get everything wrong. The recovery will continue, and people will quietly re-elect him.

I think you better check your maths again.

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

No option for after Q1 2018 but before finishing a four year term?

In all likelihood, whatever might sink him would probably happen sooner than later (Russian connections) though his tax returns or evidence of other Enumeration-related violations could surface at any time.

Fun bet: gone before the end of this term, but after Q1 2018.
Realistically: he serves one term, faces a primary challenge but wins, and loses to generic Democrat not named Clinton.

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The devil made me do it the first time, second time I done it on my own - W

Realistically: he serves one term, faces a primary challenge but wins, and loses to generic Democrat not named Clinton.

Let's say the Republicans manage to overturn the ACA during Trump's first term. Let's also imagine that the Apocalypse doesn't kick off in the next four years because of Trump's ineptitude. Let's further imagine that Ginsburg, Breyer, and Kennedy all survive his first term and remain on the bench.

Still think he loses?

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"People think it must be fun to be a super genius, but they don't realize how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world."

Let's say the Republicans manage to overturn the ACA during Trump's first term. Let's also imagine that the Apocalypse doesn't kick off in the next four years because of Trump's ineptitude. Let's further imagine that Ginsburg, Breyer, and Kennedy all survive his first term and remain on the bench.

Still think he loses?

I do.

I think there will be a lot of people mobilized to vote who didn't vote because Clinton was running. As much as a lot of Conservative leaning people are concerned (rightfully) over the Supreme Court, there are also a lot of liberals who want the opposite and to ensure the liberal judges are replaced with similar people. As much as a lot of people hate the ACA, there are a lot who want to keep significant portions of it and will be upset if is is thrown out without a good replacement. If he finds a good replacement, that may change the equation a bit.

I think the public at large will get tired of Trump's nonsense and will elect a far more stable person (Ryan or Pence) and if the Democrats can find someone the liberals will rally behind (Webb or maybe Biden), Trump will lose the nomination or the general election.

Maybe. But under those conditions, I'd probably vote for Trump myself.

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"People think it must be fun to be a super genius, but they don't realize how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world."

I think I am up to date

He's gone before Q2 2017 - 0
He's gone before Q1 2018 - 4
He's gone before serving out first term - 1
He's gone after serving out one term (2020) - 4
He's gone after serving out two terms (2024) - 1
He's never gone, bow down to your new overlord - 2

I'm already on record as one term and out. He'll say he has done what he set out to do an go hime. 2018 will not be kind to the Republicans because the shit show won't stop but they won't have enough to impeach.

And to really fuck with them the Democrats will vote against impeachment to keep him in office and pound on the Republicans.

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I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

Three people (myself and two others have said two terms.

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"In the world I see you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Towers. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying stripes of venison on the empty car pool lane of some abandoned superhighway." T Durden

I think he serves 1 term and is done. I think his policies start to sink in, the economy starts to slide, his base voters don't improve their lot in life and Trump has nobody left to blame (although he will try).

If the Dems can offer someone other than a Warren or someone similar that is extreme left I believe they win the seat in the White House. If they do nominate Warren, an independent candidate or a more moderate Repub comes along and wins the White House.

so how was Obama more qualified to lead than Trump? He lasted, did a really shitty job, had the media up his ass and got an easy ride.

Just because I wasn't missing work, rioting doesn't mean I felt equally as much disdain for Obama.

Trump will lead 50% into new prosperity just like Obama shitted on the ~50%. Its life, its not fair.

The next democraut will suffer immense pain from those of us not crying today.

The ability to speak in complete sentences was a good start.

What does Obama have to do with this? Can you stop whining about Obama and focus on the topic at hand?

You people are pathetic. Can't defend your Republican President, so you reach back into history and attack someone else.

---

----------------------------------
"Go yell at an M&M"

The big question is the bolded...I think Warren is a very strong bet for 2020 - it's a LONG way off but she's obviously angling for it and the Bernie supporters will be hers, the feminists that supported Clinton will back her, how much more will she need to get the nod?

UPDATED:
He's gone before Q2 2017 - 0
He's gone before Q1 2018 - 4
He's gone before serving out first term - 1
He's gone after serving out one term (2020) - 5
He's gone after serving out two terms (2024) - 3
He's never gone, bow down to your new overlord - 2

He will serve one term and choose to not run for a second based on his won party not supporting him. The Republican Party, after living under the Donald for too long will nominate Paul Ryan while the Democratic Party will nominate Warren, or someone in the Warren mold. They have gone way too far left to turn back now. Ryan will win and will serve 8 years. We will finally get what I felt we needed from the past election. A boring, wonkish President. We did not need Clinton or Trump. We needed another GHW Bush which is why I supported Jeb. He is far more like his father than his brother. After 8 years of Obama, much like after 8 years of Reagan we needed a boring President. Not Trump and not Clinton. We will finally get that following the Trump years.

That is my best guess, unless some nut from the left (there are a lot of them) kills Trump at which time the media will blame Trump and the Republican Party for causing the killer to lose their mind thus allowing the killer to plead insanity and become a hero to Millennials and Kenny.

I was thinking about this this morning. The safe bet is that he lasts the four years. The Democrats are not going to try to remove him, they're going to leave him twisting in the wind until the next election. The Republicans will not want to move to get rid of him, but they will have to do something before the next election, like organizing behind one person to run against him (unlike the clown car of this past primary season) in the primaries. By that time the party of Trump will be in such a shambles and will have done so much damage to this country that they might not win another election, even for dog catcher in the reddest state, for another 10 years.

It's going to be fun to watch the party of Trump come completely apart.

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''Sweeney - you can both crush your AG *and* cruise in dead last!! 😂 '' Murphy's Law

Absolutely! Trump is a poor speaker who cannot pull himself away from constantly repeated himself as if something important is being said.
I think only one term.

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_____________________________________
DISH is how we do it.

He will go 8, setting the stage for Ivanka or Don Jr.

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_________________________________
I'll be what I am
A solitary man

He's gone before Q2 2017 - 0
He's gone before Q1 2018 - 0
He's gone after serving out one term (2020) - 0
He's gone after serving out two terms (2024) - 1
He's never gone, bow down to your new overlord - 0


Why would anyone bet against The Donald? It's like taking Atlanta and 3 points in the Super Bowl.

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"The great pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do."

He's gone before Q2 2017 - 0
He's gone before Q1 2018 - 4
He's gone before serving out first term - 1
He's gone after serving out one term (2020) - 8
He's gone after serving out two terms (2024) - 4
He's never gone, bow down to your new overlord - 2

'One term' is pulling away with this thing!

I think I updated it properly. I added gone before serving out first term for myself plus the above 2.

Full marks to you for being the only person in this thread with a sense of humor. I thought I'd get some Friday levity but most everyone wants to be serious.

Can you imagine if the GOP leadership- Ryan and McConnell- lead the charge to oust Trump- especially if they did it before the midterm elections? Pence, the new POTUS, would be far less influential than Ryan and pave a way for Ryan to win the nomination in 2020.

That display of self policing would take a huge weapon- the gross incompetence of DJT- away from the Dems in the 2018 and 2020 elections.

I'd bet that they could get more of their agenda done before 2020 without DJT and his related distractions, arrogance, and bumbling.

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Suffer Well.

Once repubs get tax cuts and some semblance of health care reform, they will only back him if safety net modified. Add more military spending for Iran, Syria, & n. Korea, egged on by china and Russia we will have more debt then even dems can stomach.....so 1 term if he is lucky. Given greedy bastRds he has installed another market crash in next 3 years. Plus 3 more years of watching this clown show will lower iqs by 5 points.

Have you seen a picture of Warren where she doesn't look like a deer in the headlight. She isn't telegenic and she isn't interesting beyond a rabid liberal base of solid blue states.

Hell, she might not even get reelected in Massachusetts unless Curt Schilling manages to run against her.

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"In the world I see you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Towers. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying stripes of venison on the empty car pool lane of some abandoned superhighway." T Durden

Because father time is undefeated. He's too old now, as was Hillary. Bob Goldthwait made the joke when Reagan was running for a second term, and it fits here as well.

Donald Trump will be 74 when he starts his second term. My grandfather is 74. We don't leave him in charge of the remote.

---

I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

It doesn't appear that competency is really all that important to Trump supporters though.

Trump has proven he has stamina remember? Remember when McCain was running against Obama, his age came up. Despite running 7 miles 3 times a week, there were some doubts he would live past his first term, leaving us with you know who. He is still alive unfortunately. He will probably survive another 6 years so I might have to pull the lever for him again, unfortunately. People like that, and Donald trump live forever. My dad is still alive despite not having a single redeeming quality and taking really, really bad care of himself. He'll probably outlive me. I already have my obituary ready for him.

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"In the world I see you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Towers. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying stripes of venison on the empty car pool lane of some abandoned superhighway." T Durden

I'm waiting for a haircut at a barber shop and burst out laughing.

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Long Chile was a silly place.

Maybe somebody can put that as their signature line.

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"In the world I see you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Towers. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying stripes of venison on the empty car pool lane of some abandoned superhighway." T Durden

Bump on the first day of Comey's testimony.

Anyone want to change their vote?

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Suffer Well.

2024, see my consistency on this. I don't like him, but barring actual evidence, this will be a marathon. The iller he gets, the more his base likes him. People like me will always vote red, and lets be frank, what democrats think doesn't matter.

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"In the world I see you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Towers. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying stripes of venison on the empty car pool lane of some abandoned superhighway." T Durden

Yes, that was a genuine coffee meets monitor moment.

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Swim. Overbike. Walk.

Emperor Trumpaltine has a nice ring to it

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"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

Two terms. Unless he has health problems, but I'll bet two terms.

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________
It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

Just waiting to get my 50 bucks on 1/1/18 (or somewhere in the following weeks)

The iller he gets, the more his base likes him. People like me will always vote red, and lets be frank, what democrats think doesn't matter.

The first part of this is 100% correct when talking about the hard-core base of supporters for populist style of politicians such as Trump. The truly hard-core base will support him right up to the absolute proving of any wrong-doing. All the blustering, blundering, mistakes, incompetence etc . . does not matter. He's there guy!


What is NOT understood by Trump and Co. is that while they did win the Electoral College vote in a convincing manner, hopefully fairly, when you drill down, the whole of EC vote tipped on a couple 100,000 votes in a few of the select swing states. For the EC vote to go the other way towards the Democrats - forget about the millions of other votes/voters, it's those 100,000+ that are key. That's not that, big a margin to work with. Trump and the GOP are governing like they have a massive mandate - which by the top and obvious numbers they do, it's those lower down numbers and those 100,000+ voters that are key.


Trump's popularity ( yes I know you think all the polls are #fakenews) is at I believe an all-time low for a new President. How many of those 100,000+ key voters would change their vote, now and in four years?

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Remains to be seen. I don't think any of his base has even thought about pulling their support though, and especially not because he said Obama tapped his phone.

If he keeps doing what he's doing, he's going to get every single vote he got last time and then some. Who are the Democrats going to put up against him?

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"People think it must be fun to be a super genius, but they don't realize how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world."

I don't think any of his base has even thought about pulling their support though,

I agree, and that's what I said in my previous post. I'm not talking about them - it's the 100,000 or so voters in the swing states that actually decided the election. Just after the election CBC (here in Canada) traveled down to Pennsylvania & Ohio and interviewed many voters who, voted for Trump. A number of them had historically voted Democrat, but this time they were interested and willing to give Trump a chance - to see what he can do. In four years, will those sorts of people be voting Trump again? Would they vote for Trump again today? These are the folks that are going to decide 2020!

As for who the Democrats will run with - they have the benefit of not just time now to figure this out, but also, watching what Trump is doing daily ( his wins and his missteps), and finding someone who will best go up against Trump in an election.

They say 6 months is a LONG time in politics! we're only 2 months into the Presidency of Donald Trump!

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Is that you Donald? Are you posting here?
Or are you just another Trump Ball Washer so detached from reality that you still believe this train wreck of a human being has any redeeming leadership ability.

The longer he stays in power the more likely he is to bring the Republican party to the tipping point where they realize that a) they are sinking the country b) by supporting this idiot they are permanently destroying their own party. There will be an internal revolt in an attempt to distance the party from the leader. Expect a concerted PR barrage of outraged Republicans and conservative talking head to say: 'He really wasn't a Republican. A RINO. We never wanted him. etc..."

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Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's

It doesn't appear that competency is really all that important to Trump supporters though.


The strange thing is . . it's not! Other things are more important to the Trump voter. They make no sense, to us - but that IS the point. And this is the important thing those opposing Trump need to understand - in a world of rational and commonsense thought, it makes no sense, but the more you berate, and demonize a Donald Trump, the deeper his support becomes for his more ardent supporters. It's all upside down, but that's the way it is.

We saw this in a micro way with former Toronto Mayor Rob Ford - after he admitted to buying and smoking cocaine, admitted to being an addict, admitted to driving drunk and all sorts of other sordid things, admitted in court and under oath, that he had been incompetent in his role as Mayor and derelict in his duties, and after his peers on Toronto City Council, decided to strip him of most of his powers as Mayor, leaving him as Mayor in name only - Ford's support GREW!! It's a head-shaker to be sure - but it's important to know this and the dynamics, if you want to oppose it!

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Other things are more important to the Trump voter. They make no sense, to us

You're right.

I'm not a Trump voter, but yeah, other things are more important to me than Trump fitting the presidential mold and appearing competent. Things like Supreme Court appointees and overturning the ACA and protecting American jobs and strengthening the middle class.

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"People think it must be fun to be a super genius, but they don't realize how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world."

Perhaps, but his approval rating trend is not good. (Historically worst ever at this time.) Should this trend continue, there will come a time when the more of Republicans in the the House and Senate will realize that their alignment with him is not in their best interest and become at a minimum unsupportive of him but potentially turn on him.

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Suffer Well.

Haha. Vitus has been one of the most vocal and effective critics of Trump on this forum.

Your irrational hatred and fear of Trump has you detached from reality.

---

Civilize the mind, but make savage the body.

- Chinese proverb

I don't think any of his base has even thought about pulling their support though, and especially not because he said Obama tapped his phone.

A lot of Trump's support came from the "anyone but Hilary" campaign, more a vote against her than for Trump. The core of his base will support him no matter what (just read some of the posters here) though. None of them will change because of what Obama did, since they hate Obama almost as much as they hate Hilary. It remains to be seen how many of his supporters will continue their infatuation if the jobs don't return, or the economy falters, or the U.S enters another war. Most importantly however, will be the impact of any new healthcare bill on the average working American.

If he keeps doing what he's doing, he's going to get every single vote he got last time and then some. Who are the Democrats going to put up against him?

If the Democrats put up anyone but Hilary, they will do better. With Trump's continued acts of self-destruction, I think a lot of people will be mobilized, far more than were ready to stand up for Hilary. Just having a unified party, instead of the Sanders/Clinton divide will likely mean a Democratic win.

Trump has a chance to do some good if he could ever get off Twitter and start actually trying to govern but I don't see it. I don't think he has the least bit of interest in policies and governing. His supporters seem to love the different approach to governing but it may well wear thin, not for them but for a lot of the people who voted against Hilary. I also think Trump's biggest challenge in 2020 might be from within the Republican party.

I'm in general agreement with that.

I'm so far extremely disappointed with the Republicans "plan" to replace Obamacare. I put the blame squarely on Ryan and his cohorts in the House, not Trump, but since he's just rolling with the plan instead of sending them back to figure out something better, he's going to take the hit for it if it turns out bad.

That said, I'm likely to be much better off under that plan than under Obamacare, and so are a whole lot of other people. It might suck, but I am not sure it's going to be politically damaging to Republicans or Trump.

A lot can happen in the next few years, and I don't have a high degree of confidence that Trump won't screw the pooch in some actually significant way. But so far, he hasn't. And yes, the Democrats certainly have an opportunity the next time around, but it remains to be seen who they'll nominate.

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"People think it must be fun to be a super genius, but they don't realize how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world."

Put me down for leaving at the end of his first term. He may decide not to run again. The guy is our oldest elected president ever.

I think you're right if we simply look at the # of the people standing to be positively affected by AHCA. However, when you contrast that with the # of people who will be very negatively affected (and their friends and family who may sympathize)...the picture is a lot less clear. I believe that if they pass it in its current form they'll do some real damage to the entire system and of course themselves politically.

The whole movement to repeal Obamacare is way oversold. I don't want to guess how many people don't actually understand what that means but I know it's not insignificant. I hope they succeed so that we can clear up this confusion. It'll be a painful lesson I'm afraid.

I agree with most of what you said especially the anyone but Hillary portion.

I put the blame squarely on Ryan and his cohorts in the House, not Trump, but since he's just rolling with the plan instead of sending them back to figure out something better, he's going to take the hit for it if it turns out bad.

I really thought that Ryan was going to be the one to challenge Trump in 2020. I thought he would be in a good position to come out as the one able to reach across the aisle and get things done and he would attract the more Conservative part of the party. I was hoping that he could present a good alternative to Obamacare that the Party would get behind.

I was very surprised that what he presented was so different than something the Conservatives and he would normally support, or at least thought he would normally support. Now he is in a bit of a bind. If it passes, Trump will come out as the great negotiator, having bridged some of the early doubters. If it doesn't pass, Ryan will get the blame for introducing a bill that was Obamacare light. Meanwhile, Ryan introduced something that is not going to please the same people he needed if he was going to stand for the Conservative base.

I think a lot of people will be mobilized, far more than were ready to stand up for Hilary. Just having a unified party, instead of the Sanders/Clinton divide will likely mean a Democratic win.

Post election analysis was that because of the unpopularity of BOTH candidates - a lot of people stayed home! This probably hurt the democrats more than the Republicans. And again, the REAL difference in the Election was a couple 100,000 votes in a few key states. What if the voter turn-out in those states was higher?

Already what you are seeing is a greater level of political interest and engagement, BECAUSE of Trump - the numbers turning out to vote in both the 2018 mid-terms and then again in 2020 will be higher - that's a good thing, but again, typically higher voter turn-out tends to favour the Democrats.

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

That says a lot about the last 8 years.

Nope, only among those unable to get over the election. Everyone I talk to just wants the left to shut up. People are tired of politics and most want to give Trump a chance. I get it that a bunch of Canadians on ST seem to be upset but your transferring your feelings to millions of Americans who are trying to live their lives.

And no the Women's march is not indicative of political interest. You can get millions of nuts to show up for anything and that's pretty much what you had. Most couldn't tell you why they were there. And once the Bachelor brought out new episodes a lot vanished.

Nope, only among those unable to get over the election. Everyone I talk to just wants the left to shut up. People are tired of politics and most want to give Trump a chance. I get it that a bunch of Canadians on ST seem to be upset but your transferring your feelings to millions of Americans who are trying to live their lives.


1) It's an election. What's done is done (Hopefully it was all fair). Need to move on.

2) It seems the President keeps referencing the election frequently - the results, the numbers, who won who lost etc . . why is that?

3) Yes, people say they are tired of politics, but political decisions do impact them positively and negatively Our democratic systems work best the more engaged people are - what's wrong with being politically engaged? What's better - no engagement?

4) No transfer of feelings I just happen to enjoy a good debate.

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Worst polls, ever. This isn't just a bunch of whiney people who didn't get their way. This is something much different.



Of course, that excludes everyone you talk to who doesn't just want that.

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-----------------------------Baron Von Speedypants
-----------------------------RunTraining articles here:
http://forum.slowtwitch.com/...runtraining;#1612485

You know, Trump does things that piss me off, or leave me with a face palm. He brings unnecessary problems on himself. But then I remember how much more everything he does bothers the left and democrat, then I'm ok with it. Then again, I elected him knowing that he would replace Scalia with a good judge which will be done this week. I also don't care if the whole thing burns since I don't particularly think gov't is a solution. So pretty much anything he does is either contributing to that goal or at least tolerable to me. But for you, it really sucks. You guys are more upset than I was with Obama in the office. All that pent up anger of mine from 8 years of Obama may be washed within 4 of trump, and I'm betting we get the full 8.

Here is what I think. I think we are saturated with the earth is falling every day with this guy that the important stuff doesn't matter, or people have tuned out the important stuff. It will only get worse. I bet by November 2020, you could have a picture of Trump grabbing a chick by the pussy and it won't matter because the base and moderates will have had any possible shock beaten out of them.

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"In the world I see you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Towers. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying stripes of venison on the empty car pool lane of some abandoned superhighway." T Durden

New option:

He is gone after one SCOTUS nomination-0
He is gone after two-2

I will go for two

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They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

That's the fucked up part. "What are his qualifications?" "People hate him because he's incompetent."

You know, its only one of the most important jobs on the planet.

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-----------------------------Baron Von Speedypants
-----------------------------RunTraining articles here:
http://forum.slowtwitch.com/...runtraining;#1612485

I deem only two past Presidents in the last 100 years as truly qualified: Eisenhower and George HW Bush.
I deem the following as qualified: FDR, Carter, Reagan, Clinton, George W Bush, Wilson, Coolidge
Barely Qualified: Nixon, Truman, LBJ, Ford, Harding,
Unqualified: Kennedy Obama Trump Hoover

Ford barely qualified? 25 years in congress. House minority leader. Vice President. That isn't enough?

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===============
Proud member of the MSF (Maple Syrup Mafia)

Nope. What do the other barely qualified(s) have in common?

He tripped getting off of an airplane, that made him unqualified.

Considering I would have elected a tin can over Hillary that tells you how little I hold the position qualifications. The govt had three branches and the president should have little power. We don't elect a king. But democrats long believed in more central power and congress has gladly put all the tough decisions that run the levers of power in the executive branches control.

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"In the world I see you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Towers. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying stripes of venison on the empty car pool lane of some abandoned superhighway." T Durden

Hillary would be in her own category of completely unqualified

Personally I think not having a president with a republican congress is better than either. As you can see, govt seems to be working. Ruining relationships? Gimme a break. That's the beauty of being the us. The world hates us except when they want something. That doesn't matter who is in charge. Maybe trump keeps them on their toes. Maybe he takes away a few handouts threat are long overdue. That's not a bad thing. His budget cuts all sorts of funding for crap I don't think should be funded. But the reality is, it is just a suggestion and he is proving he can't tell congress what to do.

But if his ideas send a shiver up the spine of allies who have taken advantage of our generosity. Good. Fuck them.

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"In the world I see you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Towers. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying stripes of venison on the empty car pool lane of some abandoned superhighway." T Durden

i think i've mentioned this before, but i'm also curious about trump's health. of course, john mccain is living proof of the problems with trying to run actuarial tables on a candidate, but a few of the pictures i've seen of trump, he really doesn't look like a well man. splotchy, heavy, mottled . . . i know he doesn't take great care of himself (w/r/t diet and exercise) and his stress factor will have just shot through the roof, and he is 70.

on the other hand, he does talk a lot about his vigor, and maybe he's got great genes - don't know about that. but his health has crossed my mind. . .

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

I move Nixon up to qualified and Bush down a notch to qualified. I move Carter down a notch.

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They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

I don't think the GOP as a whole will be damaged by it. In general it's good for those who vote GOP. Trump on the other hand should be damaged by it as it will negatively affect a large portion of his voters. Note: I said should. Based on the unwavering support this group gives him, it probably won't negatively affect him.

Again with the comparisons to Rob Ford, if he hadn't died from cancer I can almost guarantee that Ford Nation would have pushed hard for him to be re-elected mayor. Even after the crack scandal turned out to be completely true. Even after he drunkenly spoke with a Jamaican accent and it was broadcast. Even after... (it goes on and on...)

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

When putin blows whistle on trump when no longer useful.

This needs it own thread. Great topic.

Hillary would be in her own category of completely unqualified

Can you expand on that? Why?

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

What's your rationale?

She never had a real job. She won her Senate election on Bill's coattails. She was appointed SEC STATE as a payoff.

both ford and trump benefit from a Keyes Constant of support probably around the low-mid 20s. those people will hang on no matter what. but that's not enough to win, and all the rest of their support is contingent.

i think the important part with trump and ford is that in order for something to truly damage their popularity, it needs to be something that contradicts their 'brand.' ford was famously uncouth to begin with, so further evidence of that didn't really amount of much in the eyes of his supporters. he was also famously devoted to "the little guy," and preoccupied with "cutting the waste." so if his detractors had more clearly been able to indicate that ford was a spendy elite who rigged the system to benefit himself and his rich pals, that would be hugely damning and would cost him core support.

for trump, the question is what his core brand is: celebrity? wealth? going after him for being brash and rude, or inconsistent, or ignorant of details, or vague and jingoistic, or selfish - these things won't amount to much. but you may get traction out of showing he's much less rich than he claims, or that he doesn't care about the 'little guy,' or that he's not an 'outsider/maverick' but is beholden to entrenched interests. those cut more to his brand and might work out.

that or, as they say, a dead girl or a live boy.

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

Trump said " manafort did a terrific job". He jobbed the carny.

Trump said "manafort did a terrific job"

Trump says this about everyone. It's like breathing for him. It's part of his default Trump-talk - "such and such is terrific" or "such and such is doing a terrific job".

Of course it can flip around to - someone or something can go very quickly from doing a "terrific job", to being, "a failure" or "overrated. Sad" in the course of a week!

Hard to keep up! :)

. . . and remember "Manafort was only on the job briefly"! :)

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

i think the important part with trump and ford is that in order for something to truly damage their popularity, it needs to be something that contradicts their 'brand.' ford was famously uncouth to begin with, so further evidence of that didn't really amount of much in the eyes of his supporters. he was also famously devoted to "the little guy," and preoccupied with "cutting the waste." so if his detractors had more clearly been able to indicate that ford was a spendy elite who rigged the system to benefit himself and his rich pals, that would be hugely damning and would cost him core support.


Many media outlets in Toronto and indeed the rest of Canada, regularly called Ford out on this disconnect - That he SEEMS to be out for the little guy, but in actual fact he's out mostly for himself and his family and friends (all reasonably to very wealthy) However, with respect, that hard-core Ford supporter was typically a low-information type of person. They are NOT reading detailed news pieces, editorials and the like from a range of media outlets and they won't look beyond a head-line. "Cut The Gravy-Train" was a great headline that Ford supporters latched on to, but the Rob Ford year's actually COST the city of Toronto both in monetary and non-monetary ways.

Here's a BIGGY. Had Ford NOT ripped up and killed David Millar's Transit City plan on Day-1 in office, many of those Light-Rail Transit lines in Scarborough and elsewhere would be NEARING COMPLETION! Today - thanks to Rob Ford, 6+ years on, NOTHING has happened on the transit file, and Scarborough & Toronto is saddled with a $3.5billion one stop subway extension that is YEARS away from seeing a shovel in the ground! So much for saving the city money, and looking out for the little guy and people in Scarborough in particular!

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

I think Donald Trump will serve out his term as president. I've talked to enough Trump supporters that literally don't care if the Trump campaign colluded with Russians. Given the choice they would rather have a president who is a Russian pawn than a Democrat. I don't think Republicans have any appetite to pursue impeachment, our media will get distracted by the next bizarre Trump tweet and in 6 months nobody except Noam Chomsky, Chris Hedges and Abby Martin will even still be talking about it.

Boom, der it is!!!

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"In the world I see you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Towers. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying stripes of venison on the empty car pool lane of some abandoned superhighway." T Durden

As soon as he buys himself a big boy truck.

He looks like he is having more fun in this picture than he's had in the last 3 months.

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Suffer Well.

Go to Qualified presidents thread. But having read up on Carter and his qualifications I would maybe leave him where he is by your criteria. I was surprised by how much he had done prior to being president. Don't think he was too great a president but separate thread.

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They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

Bump.

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Suffer Well.

Not much longer me thinks.........i.e. less than 4 years. More than 4 weeks.

Just need to get to 1/1/18 to collect

Summer's coming. Who the hell wants to be president during BBQ season?!

I give him until June 30th... and then it's Miller time!

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"The right to party is a battle we have fought, but we'll surrender and go Amish... NOT!" -Wayne Campbell

Time is running out for some of the predictions on this thread. Also looking like Russia collusion will be more of a problem for Hillary than Trump.

Was I crazy with my prediction in March? Well, my thinking aligns with Piers Morgan, who had an editorial yesterday entitled,


Here is what he has to say.

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

he made some good points!

Considering it’s Piers Morgan writing this the following passage from the piece is both devastating (to democrats) and astoundingly on point...

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Civilize the mind, but make savage the body.

- Chinese proverb

I never too Piers seriously but he's been pretty on point since Trump announced his candidacy, one of the few who seemed to have the pulse of the general public and ignored the polling data. And I do tend to agree with him, there's absolutely nothing to suggest Trump is in any danger of losing steam, I mean eight months ago everyone figured an impeachment was coming for collusion with the Russians, it's looking more and more likely that he did no such thing and in fact any collusion that happened was done under Obama's watch.

The twitter madness is awful and he comports himself like a spoiled twelve year old but he's been fairly productive in pushing his agenda, for better or worse, and if he gets through substantive tax reform and the economy is booming in a few years there is absolutely no way he'd lose in 2020.

I like the end: It's amazing that the Trump haters still haven't figured out how/why he won, and will still be wondering 3 years from now.

So scream all your like next week, hysterical Trump-hating liberal snowflakes, but I’d save some of your voice for Wednesday, November 4, 2020.
Because that’s when, as things stand, I predict Donald J. Trump will be re-elected President of the United States.
Altogether now: AAAAAAGGGGHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

How could it possibly be a problem for Hillary? Going to interfere with her daily routine of gardening and reading? :) Her career is over.

Unless you think it could lead to some sort of criminal indictment, but that seems extraordinarily unlikely both for a Justice Dept. to indict a former Secretary of State (*cough* Kissinger *cough*), and extraordinarily hard to prove that a "donation" is a "payment" unless there's some smoking gun recording or document - there seemingly isn't, that we know of.

Nothing like winning with class. Act like you've been there. :)

Really, it should be, "how to lose with dignity".

And the left certainly isn't trying to learn more from defeat/failure than success.

I mean really, screaming at the sky a year later?!?!

Well you can only be responsible for your own behavior, right? When the other team starts acting like jackasses, that's when acting classy looks the best.


Have you never screamed ineffectually because you're upset at something? I sure have! Sometimes even screaming profanities. Though with the Trump thing I did more of a quiet facepalm than a scream, It's OK, we'll get through this like 0.0001% of the U.S. population participating in a primal scream event. I don't think anyone'll get hurt.

I like the end: It's amazing that the Trump haters still haven't figured out how/why he won, and will still be wondering 3 years from now.

I keep reading this but not sure what it means.

I've heard hundreds of different reasons for Trumps win from his supporters and haters and almost every single one is different. I don't think the Trump supporters are in agreement as to why he won because it is different depending on where they live, where they work and their political affiliation. If they're not in agreement, why is it so odd that the Trump haters are the same?

bump

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Suffer Well.

2024. Or 2028 depending on if he manages to get that pesky third term rule removed.

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

Well an exact date is tough, but getting closer for sure. I'm going to stick with picking which year of his presidency and going with in the 2nd, later half..

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Civilize the mind, but make savage the body.

- Chinese proverb

Almost there

Speaking of which, is there anywhere where we can actually bet on this with dates and odds? The Brits are usually pretty liberal with things you can bet on, bet they would love to have this up and running...

Not from the US unless you want to enter a gray area.

www.predictit.org

I've made about $20k since election night.

That's like the Iowa market

How about the women who have accused him of inappropriate behavior? I think this could bring him down faster than anything giving the current climate. A judge will hear the Servos defamation case next week if the Judge rules in her favor will that finally open up the flood gates and take this prick down?

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/...54bae4b0392a4ebc50f6

January 20, 2021.

Didn't we do all this wishful thinking back in 2008-2016 over the last guy? ;-)

Ah, the wonders of the Electoral College process. Hahahahaha!

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"Politics is just show business for ugly people."

Thats a cool site, can you join it from the US? Where are you betting from? And congratulations on the big wins, I'd like to get some money down now on Moore not winning, seems like the odds are heavy that his is going to win at the moment. Am I reading it correctly?

May 2018

January 20, 2025

M.A.G.A

I'm playing from the US. I believe it's geoblocked for a few US states (Washington and Nevada?). There may be a deposit discount code. Moore YES is 78 now.

Seems like a good time to revive this thread.

I've not been a fan of impeachment- as I've seen it as a fool's errand for Nancy and the House with the way Senate Pubs seem to either by their inaction or by their words support him- but events of the last week have changed my mind. The Ukraine deal is worthy of investigation and if what has been discussed is true, is in the realm of "high crimes."

Not sure where the impeachment is headed or what they will uncover with the whistleblower's testimony (because it is far, far more than the transcripts that will be released in some fashion today), but it seems to be a more tenable path.

However, I'm still not convinced my prediction from Feb 2017 is fully correct and will result in him not completing his first term.

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Suffer Well.

In the other thread about placing your bets, I just learnt from Amstel that apparently, none of the stuff he's done is a problem.
So, there is that.