Does anyone know the actual odds of getting in thru the lottery?
Is it raining where you are? If it isn’t then you stand a better chance of getting struck by lightning.
I think they have like 25,000 for the lottery and 150 winners. People out of America stand better odds. The passport club adds like 50 slots for the US.
“One in a Million…So you’re sayin’ there’s a chance! Yeah!!” , Lloyd
I’m guessing the lottery isn’t really random, just a way to earn $35 x 25 000. The lottery form asks for any special considerations and “sob story” stuff. I saw that the guy who did the race in honor of the Blazeman this year got in trough the lottery. Was he just lucky ?
There, I just blew my own chances of ever winning the lottery! (or, maybe they want to prove me wrong by giving me a spot ! 
Your 25,000 number is quite high.
I thought I read that somebody on Slowtwitch figured it out to be like one in 16 if you did both the general and the passport club. I could be wrong. Maybe it was one in eight.
Here we go again…. Mathematically there is no way anyone - even WTC - can answer this question until the lottery registration period closes. They will draw X number of winners out of Y number of entries, thereby making your odds X:Y.
Yes, X is known. But no one knows what Y will be until it’s done.
I read somewhere that they get about 4000 lottery entries.
Does anyone know the actual odds of getting in thru the lottery?
I think the person was asking about the odds from years past and from that information they were going to make a reasonable prediction about this year.
I’m guessing the lottery isn’t really random, just a way to earn $35 x 25 000. The lottery form asks for any special considerations and “sob story” stuff. I saw that the guy who did the race in honor of the Blazeman this year got in trough the lottery. Was he just lucky ?
There, I just blew my own chances of ever winning the lottery! (or, maybe they want to prove me wrong by giving me a spot !
I wondered about that. Why does the lottery registration form have all those questions? Why the need to provide any background info. if it is truly just a random drawing?
It’s about 2-3% chance, based on #'s if past entrants divided by # picked. these numbers are skewed a little; for example, they claim to chose 1 person from every state. So, move to Wyoming, your odds will increase!!!
Tom
I got in 3 times 1991,1993 and 1995 after putting in
starting 1988 I think back then only cost 5 bucks though an overall entry fee was 130 bucks if you weren’t chosen you were put on a waiting list and in september they let you know(that was late 80’s.
Story was they always wanted at least one person from each state so if you were in california well tougher
I used to put my parents address in arkansas(just across the river)
Since then I’ve qualified 4 times though but I still put in for the lottery from time to time maybe 5 times since 97 when I first qualified.
I read somewhere a few years back they switched to a computer ran random pick but can’t confirm that.
Just wonder because it does cost you money and some states I would think have laws that it has to be random but I’m not sure. So who knows.
They ask you all that crap when you enter online in active real annoying when your trying to sign up before a race fills up.
It’s about 2-3% chance, based on #'s if past entrants divided by # picked. these numbers are skewed a little; for example, they claim to chose 1 person from every state. So, move to Wyoming, your odds will increase!!!
Tom
They USED to pick one person from each state that had an applicant. They NO longer do this (as of about 3 years ago I think).
Is it raining where you are? If it isn’t then you stand a better chance of getting struck by lightning.
I think they have like 25,000 for the lottery and 150 winners. People out of America stand better odds. The passport club adds like 50 slots for the US.
I won a slot in 2005.
THEN…There were 50 slots for outside of the US and 150 for Americans.
The “Passport Club” apparently increases your chances of obtaining a slot.
Terry