Where the bettors are putting their money.
Is there a line on whether Richie Porte makes it through Stage 9 this year? Over/Under how many stages he finishes?
hahaha yes, we could have some side bets on that.
Maybe some interesting predictions would be who will NOT be in the top 5 at race end. As there have been GC predictions, would it be too soon to suggest who won’t be in the top 5?
Looking at that list, there are two obvious riders to short: Thomas and Porte.
Thomas has a good chance of winning, but 9:4 seems high.
And Porte at 14:1? Not that I have anything against Richie, but Hmmmmmm.
I actually think both Richie and Bardet are too low on the list. They’re among the top 5 favourites IMO.
Agree Thomas odds are too short, it’s more through an absence of credible alternatives than anything else.
On the other hand I think Porte might be a good outside bet. I’d say he’s very similar to Thomas a year ago as a rider who has all the ability to win a GT but plagued by unfortunate crashes or bad days when over-extending himself riding for a leader. Not a favourite but if things go his way for a change he could suddenly find himself in a similar position to Thomas last year.
I actually think both Richie and Bardet are too low on the list. They’re among the top 5 favourites IMO.
I agree with you that Bardet is placed too low.
But come on, Porte? His best Tour finish was 5th in 2016. He surfed wheels consistently that year and had a good TT (4th). Other years he’s been well outside the top 10 or crashed out. He hasn’t shown much this year. 11th at the Dauphine? Meh.
Don’t get me wrong - I’ll be cheering for him and Bardet both!
His top 5 included an unfortunate puncture in the last two kilometers in an earlier stage, and the famous incident on Mt Ventoux (Froome running without his bike) that both had negative effect on his placement and he couldn’t do much about (I guess he was somewhat at fault, not attentive enough, re. the incident on Ventoux).
I’m not saying he won’t have bad luck or crash again, but if he doesn’t, he’s among the favourites IMHO. I think he purposefully didn’t show too much at the Dauphine. Keeping all his ammunition for the tour. I could be wrong. I guess we’ll see.
Porte has the makings of a real enigma. An able rider in support of others; yet, a rider unable to make it to the top. From memory, it seems like he did his best riding in service to others. Some people are like that as they excel as part of a team result.
Perhaps this is why there are so many more domestiques than leaders. Domestiques sign up to subjugate their ride. Yet, when we have someone like Michal Kwiatkoski still riding as a lieutenant while Richie Porte is a leader, I shake my head. Hopefully Kwiatkoski is making more money than Porte and likes not being the center of attention. Being the center of attention hasn’t seemed to help Porte.
Surprise me Richie and podium this year while making the TdeF competitive due to your riding and not following. And the same for a few others…
I kinda like Rigoberto at 30-1. He has the tools, and EF has had a really good year overall. Woods just missed the rainbow jersey. TJ is good enough to pull the necessary weight to keep him up in the hunt. The Italian kid was a nice find. And the rest of the cast is solid. They ride well as a team. Did a great job to pace him up last year when he bit it early.
I’ll take Bernal at 11/2 all day long. He and Thomas will be very close going into the last week and team will let them decide it in the last mountain stages. I don’t think Thomas will be able to stay with Bernal in the last stages. don’t think Enios cares whether Bernal or Thomas wins, just as long as one of them does.
I’d definitely like to see Rigo or someone from EF win it. I’m not going to be displeased of Thomas repeats or Bernal wins it either.
They ride well as a team
And they’re easy to see
.
He’s a little like Cadel who couldn’t close the deal… until he did. Cadel was more consistent and had bigger GT results, though Richie has bagged some big non-GT wins too. Fuglsang sort of fits that mold as well though appears to have the form of his life this year, like Thomas last.
Porte races more robotically than Bardet but I hope they’re all in good form and have good luck.
If Quintana had panache, or maybe just emote, I’d think he’d be better than 16-1. Nobody likes the guy, and yet he’s got 2 GT wins and 5 GT stages. He rides smart, and has a strong team support. He’s only 29. Prime time.
Porte could surprise. Stars have to really align to get it all right in a GT. Hell, even just to have a solid career.
Same with Uran. Luck, team, and other guys’ bad luck, all necessary. Or, alternatively, just have a team of studs who systematically dope and rip the legs off of everyone else. Aka, The Bruneel method. It’s one way to get it done.
Thomas I like a lot but I don’t think he’s the super stud talent to win it again. Remember, he’s been around a while, no young phenom he. He could be one and done.
I’m not on the Thomas GC bandwagon. Thinking he could be like a more likable Wiggo–had form of his life and bagged the big one.
That early, stone-faced killer Quintana throwing body blows high in the mountains… where’s he hiding out? Still devoid of expression but also the panache and aggression that made him look so good. His GT wins weren’t exactly dominating–if memory serves one was by sort of a hanky move when race was neutralized–but he seems to just follow wheels and not animate race. Easy to say “just follow wheels” when Sky rides tempo with enough power to blend frozen margaritas, but he’s not gonna win by relying on TT prowess.
I kinda like Rigoberto at 30-1. He has the tools, and EF has had a really good year overall. Woods just missed the rainbow jersey. TJ is good enough to pull the necessary weight to keep him up in the hunt. The Italian kid was a nice find. And the rest of the cast is solid. They ride well as a team. Did a great job to pace him up last year when he bit it early.
Agree. This is best EF team that I can remember. Is Jonathan Vaughter’s due or what? I would not be disappointed if they came away with a win or podium. Preferably a win.
Looking at that list, there are two obvious riders to short: Thomas and Porte.
Thomas has a good chance of winning, but 9:4 seems high.
And Porte at 14:1? Not that I have anything against Richie, but Hmmmmmm.
Sports books aren’t in the business of listing actual odds of winning. Their ultimate goal is to balance the amount of bets so that once the book is closed, no matter the outcome, they will turn a profit. Factoring in public perception of riders plays a role in that, and Thomas and Porte will be popular bets among the casual betting fan.
If sports books did allow you to fade an individual athlete to “not win” an event, then you could better see what the actual odds they feel they have of winning are. But doing so would show the bettor how much “house advantage” they are giving up, and probably dissuade them from betting.
The problem with Porte is his trek cast. They have been horrible this year. Mollema will help. Julian Bernard a little. Styven on the flats. But he needs more help I think
Looking at that list, there are two obvious riders to short: Thomas and Porte.
Thomas has a good chance of winning, but 9:4 seems high.
And Porte at 14:1? Not that I have anything against Richie, but Hmmmmmm.
Sports books aren’t in the business of listing actual odds of winning. Their ultimate goal is to balance the amount of bets so that once the book is closed, no matter the outcome, they will turn a profit. Factoring in public perception of riders plays a role in that, and Thomas and Porte will be popular bets among the casual betting fan.
If sports books did allow you to fade an individual athlete to “not win” an event, then you could better see what the actual odds they feel they have of winning are. But doing so would show the bettor how much “house advantage” they are giving up, and probably dissuade them from betting.
I completely agree. And this is why a rider like Uran has good odds IMO - although he has a proven record and a good team, he’s lacking in appeal to most of the betting crowd.
Would love to see Rigo win. EF has a great team this year.
Looking at that list, there are two obvious riders to short: Thomas and Porte.
Thomas has a good chance of winning, but 9:4 seems high.
And Porte at 14:1? Not that I have anything against Richie, but Hmmmmmm.
Sports books aren’t in the business of listing actual odds of winning. Their ultimate goal is to balance the amount of bets so that once the book is closed, no matter the outcome, they will turn a profit. Factoring in public perception of riders plays a role in that, and Thomas and Porte will be popular bets among the casual betting fan.
If sports books did allow you to fade an individual athlete to “not win” an event, then you could better see what the actual odds they feel they have of winning are. But doing so would show the bettor how much “house advantage” they are giving up, and probably dissuade them from betting.
Astute observation. Betting does reflect popularity and bookies balancing. Yet, from sports books we can get a feel for what the general public thinks will happen which gives us the advantage of thousands and thousands of opinions on the outcome all rolled up into odds.
If you think you know the sport and it’s dark horses, then this could be one of the better years to bet on someone.