Males:

1. Lange - People still underestimate the course and run course record holder. Its funny by now. Ohh and he still didnt show his full running potential - yet.
   
2. McNamee - he is a beast in disguise of a sheep. Last year I made the mistake to underestimate him even though I was aware of him.
3. Gomez - He is not van Lierde. So his 1st Kona is most likely Lange/Frodeno style. And thats 3rd place.
   
4. Sanders - Normally a podium and even championship contender. Yet the combined power of Lange/McNamee/Gomez hunting each other down Ali Drive is nothing he can handle. No way.

Wild cards and dark horses (in descending priority):

• Nilsson - just because he could do it - he has the potential to be in the Lange/McNamee/Gomez/Sanders league. Yet he should show that potential before its too late.
  
• Kienle - I just dont see how he has the run to compete with Lange/McNamee/Gomez/Nilsson/Sanders, yet on a good day he might? And he has the experience... Yet I do believe it needs one or two DNF or penalties ahead of him to get on the podium.
  
• Dreitz - its his first Kona. Yet he is one of the few who sometimes excel to an almost unbelievable level. Races where he swam ok to good, biked almost like Kienle/Wurf/Starky and still hammered a rock solid fast run. Its almost stupid to fully ignore him. Yet he probably faces the fate of most first time Kona - athletes... something goes awkwardly wrong.
  
• Will Clarke - too easy to forget about him. Even more when seeing his past result. But he has the swim and the run and even the bike if you dig deeper. On a perfect day on the bike... he can make it to podium. Anything possible from 25 - 2.
  
• Matt Hanson - might sound like a weird pick. And he might most likely fail and not even hit TOP10. Yet on the perfect day he can... touch the podium.
  

Females:

1. Ryf obviously. She is at a level where they should send her to compete with the males. Just because she is so cool and fast. Problem is, she would still be at least TOP10...
2. Charles
   
3. Jackson

Am not that much into the female part so I took the obvious picks. Except: I hope for Huetthaler to DNF - but hey, thats how I see it.