OK, Frodo's results for swim+bike and positions the last 3 year rolling back 2016, 2015, 2014.....Frodo's always second out of the water and then in striking distance off the bike (unless of course he flats and gets a penalty like back in 2014). So now that we have beaten the Frodo run thread to death, with the big X on his back, looks like the we will see him basically repeat what he does to T2....get to T1 in second, and then toy around with everyone for 112 miles, mess around with their heads and let them burn all kinds of matches trying to surge/break/attack and then get to T2 within striking range of all the overbikers....well unless Lange employs pretty well the same strategy and comes in just behind Frodo. Basically everyone else other than these two have to roll the dice and put the hammer down at some point on the swim-bike (remember the year Kienle overswam and stayed with the front pack on the swim and was cooked on the bike).

I think with Frodo's swim strength, it get's into the heads of everyone. They all probably over swim a bit and over bike early just to stay close to him because they are afraid of the train to T2 leaving right after Palani on the bike and missing the entire thing. Meanwhile Frodo can swim in cruise control and just wait around for all of these guys to burn matches and pick him up and then he can bike even easier sitting legally while these guys try to break him.

So Monty, being the Kona course swim expert, what's the analysis of how much all these guys overcook the swim and overcook it early in the bike?