I like your predictions! I agree with most of them but would add the following:

- Nairo Quniana is bound to take 1 or 2 mountain stages and will end up with the Polka Dot.
- I don't see Majka contenting for any stages or jerseys - he'll be 100% riding for AC. But I think we'll see him as a team GC leader in a year or two.
- Kwiatkowski to win stage 4. A long stage that has a spring classic feel, including cobbles, is perfect for an aggressive all-rounder like him.

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Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's

Maybe, maybe not. Degenkolb will presumably also want to go for those points.

Chapeau! It's on like Donkey Kong

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Swim. Overbike. Walk.

He looks to be in cracking form. Rode a very strong second place at the British Championships, the result doesn't mean much on it's own but the interesting thing was how light and lean he's looking, he was coping with some pretty steep climbs with no problems. Looks like he's trimmed down to try and expand the number of stages where he has a chance.

Well, yes, if you only look at his wins. If you throw in his bazillion 2nd and 3rd places, though.....

Quintana and Nibali have the best teams backing them up for sure. If Valverde nurses Quintana up the mountains, it's going to be hard to best him. I'm hoping Tejay gets on the podium, but I don't think it will happen. He does have a chance to gain a bit of time after the ITT though.

I really hope the MTN-Qhubeka squad pulls off a decent race. They all seem like cool down to earth guys. A few half decent climbers in there as well :)

Ps: Team Charlie Brown is entered.

Wait, what?

Valverde is gonna "nurse" Quintana up the mountains?

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

Sky's line-up looks pretty strong as well. Porte dropping out of the Giro and thus being available and recovered for the TdF is a big boost for them, he has too many bad days to be a real contender in his own right but he's a very strong wingman in the mountains for Froome as we saw in 2013. Kennaugh is on great form after winning British championships. Thomas came second in Tour de Suisse. Stannard is a work horse, he was badly missed by Sky last year. Roche is a good addition to the team, as much for his tactical awareness as what he brings on the road, that's been something Sky have struggled with in the past. And Konig is also a great addition for them - 3 Grand Tours, 3 top 10 finishes. They're certainly not short of horsepower to try and protect Froome through the cobbles, set pace when needed and put in a good TTT performance. There might be a question mark over their out and out climbing strength - other than Porte I'm not sure how many of them are likely to be still there for Froome at end the of the big mountain days. Kennaugh has the potential to step up on that front, as does Thomas (though with Thomas it seems like we've been talking about his potential forever now and are still waiting for him to really break through in GT terms), but for both it will depend how much work they have to do before they even get to the big mountains.

I'm assuming you mean Tejay could gain time in the TTT; he's not any better than Quintana, Froome or Contador in the ITT, which is only 14k.

Saxo is as every bit as good as any other team when it comes to backing GC contender.

Yeah sorry, I meant the TTT. And Sky is a fantastic team for sure. The race is going to be wide open I believe. I guess I didn't mean Valverde is going to nurse him up the mountains, but having a teammate who was top 5 last year help your leader is a big help. I know how strong of a climber Quintana is. I think Quintana is going to take the win this year. If Valverde and Quintana work together in the mountains they can put a huge chunk of time into Nibali, VanGarderen, Contador, and the Frenchmen. It's going to be a fun race that's for sure.

Any reviews of NBC sports online coverage? I'm probably going to spring for the Full Tour Package. I have good 4G data connection so ideally I'd be able to watch it online through that. It would need to have the ability to watch it later in the day too as I may not be able to watch all of it while working :P

I really wish the ITT and TTT were in the opposite positions for this tour. Stage 9 is really late for a TTT, especially after the carnage of the first week and a stage over the cobbles. Some teams will be a significant disadvantage, though nothing but bad luck. Luckily, the stage is pretty short, so that will limit the chances for significant losses.

Had they opened with the TTT, they would have had all teams on equal footing re: numbers and a great spectacle to open the race. Having the ITT on stage 9 would have put more weight on it leading into the mountains and any losses / gains would mostly be down to the rider, not bad luck.

Just my $.02.....

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

100% agree

The TdF could do a 180km TTT, and hold the stage in Panama City, Florida... oh snap, that's already been done.

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Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's

Not replying to you in particular, just the thread. I just read that Lars Boom has tested with a bit of cortisol in his system and has put Astana in the doing hot-seat again. Has this team lost all credibility now? I always kind of liked Nibali but it is hard to trust this team after the past year.
Story http://velonews.competitor.com/...tent=070415_Prologue

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Powertap / Cycleops / Saris

Majka was the KOM last year so Contador should have plenty of help in the mountains.

Elevated cortisol is not against the rules, but it does contravene MPCC rules, an organization that Astana is a part of. The kicker is that Boom is a monster, especially on the cobbles an in dutch style racing (not to mention he's solid on the TT bike), so he is a key helper for Nibali in the first week... This puts them in a bit of a pickle... They can either start with 8 riders, exclude Boom, or leave MPCC and start all 9.

Given the tenuous ground that the team is on with the UCI with their rich doping history, if Vinokourov had half a brain (which I'm not sure he does), the only move to make is to sit Boom, and proceed with 8 riders. While it's in their rights to go with the other option and leave the MPCC, for a team under such an ethical microscope, the perceived meaning of such a move could be a death blow on the team moving forward....

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Adam

Euro-Sports.ca/The Foodery Team member

I just read that Lars Boom has tested with a bit of cortisol in his system and has put Astana in the doing hot-seat again.

Low cortisol, not high.

Astana showed in the Giro that their doping program is very effective for performance. Do they know something that others don't, or are they flirting with the limits? Probably the later, given all their positive tests.

How I'd like the 4 top guys to finish:

Contador
Quintana
Nibali
Froome

What I predict:

Froome
Nibali
Quintana
Contador

Hasn't Contador been stripped of titles due to doping convictions? And weren't there other (more serious) doping allegations that he somehow avoided despite pretty convincing evidence he was guilty? It's hard to get too picky in cycling, but I try to avoid cheering for guys who have previous convictions. I hope Contador gets beat handily, finishes off the podium. I doubt it will happen though. I would like to see Quintana, VanGarderen, and Froome on the podium with Talansky and Rodriguez close behind. It won't happen, but that would be fun.

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Powertap / Cycleops / Saris

Just because someone doesn't have a conviction doesn't render him inherently more worthy of cheering. I have deep suspicions re: Froome, Nibali, and Quintana. Somehow Quintana was left off the hook in 2013 when people grilled Froome, whereas his climbing numbers were almost as good. Froome went from not being able to crack top 10 in 2011 Tour of CA as the protected GC leader (that's what Greg Henderson in an interview after the stage he won) but catapulted himself to second place in the Vuelta. The evidence against Nibali is more tenuous, but both Liquigas circa 2009 and Astana have some shady history. Known unknown and unknown unknowns...

Best not to think any of them is clean. That said, i'd be really disappointed if it turns out that Dan Martin is up to no good.

The MPCC has rules on cortisol to attempt to reduce cortisone abuse. The idea is that if a rider is requires cortisone then he is not well enough to race and should sit out for eight days. Things like stress also reduce cortisol levels.

While the usual suspects pile on Astana, keep in mind that none of the teams for the other contenders, Sky, Tinkoff, and Movistar, belong to the MPCC so they abide by the cortisol rules that the MPCC teams do.

Seems Astana have decided to race Boom anyway. Does that mean they now have to leave the MPCC?