http://www.ironman.com/...triathlon-races.aspx shows 195 if you include everything in the filter: Sprints, IronGirl, MultiSport Festivals.


It was reasonably late last year that there was PR around there being 100 MDot races. I remember in December going to Ironman.com for some reason and taking note they were claiming 106. Now they are at 195, but clearly that includes a lot of events for which they simply license one of their marks.


All told, the number of races through 2014 for which they received the registration revenue and were not just a licensee was probably close to 100 +/ 10%.

First, 10x ebitda isn't realistic. 5 is. 10 is for companies that are growing, well, at rates far faster than ironman. Second, they have an impairment this year that they haven't had before, and that is the interest payments to the syndicate banks that financed the recap. That nut is material and those monies won't be used to grow the business like they have in the past.

I am thinking if it didn't have the debt it might get $240-270mm. This is what PEP took out of it.

It's dead money.

"10 is for companies that are growing, well, at rates far faster than ironman."

i'm not opining on the worth of the company, but, ironman (WTC) is now about 15 times bigger, in revenues, than it was 6 or 7 years ago, when providence equity partners bought the company. and it's grown 15-fold while also growing its profit and profit margin.

that's not all organic growth. there were quite a few acquisitions. but a lot of it was organic, and some of the acquisitions (chesapeakeman) would grow organically probably 10-fold in registrants and 50-fold in revenues versus their pre-WTC ownership.

the only problem is that CGI had a somewhat similar growth pattern and model, so, i do think it sits out there as an unfortunate comp. nevertheless, hard to think of many examples of companies enjoying this kind of meteoric growth AND this kind of profit growth at the same time.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

They also toasted their balance with the recap. You don't buy the past. You buy what you think is going to happen. The growth rate just isn't there anymore, neither is the intrinsic value.

No way LT board agrees to this.

So the ironman brand has plateaued? Most of my friends, with zero market research, just observations, would agree with you.

Update: Lifetime has bought up the Boulder Sprint and Boulder Peak (Olympic Distance) triathlon from Ironman brand.

http://303triathlon.com/Ironman-transfers-Boulder-Sprint-Peak-to-Life-Time

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Jeff Abbott - @run1fast
jabbott@headsweats.com
Headsweats - Custom Team singlets $8 / Cycling Jerseys $25
Abbott Event Solutions - Brand Rep and Event Manager

Odd for LTF to be scooping up individual events if they are planning to buy WTC outright. Seems obvious that anything in the WTC umbrella shorter than 70.3 is becoming LTF. But the whole kit-and-kaboodle of 70.3 and 140.6s, not so sure.

Life Time Fitness may itself be undergoing a corporate change soon. According to an article in Friday's (March 6th) Wall Street Journal, Life Time Fitness is "in advanced talks with [two] private-equity bidders". The article says it's unknown whether a bidder would acquire the entire business, or just the company's real estate holdings. The bidding is expected to end next week.

Reading the full article requires a subscription. Here's the link: http://www.wsj.com/...ty-groups-1425600289

Lifetime also has 60 some job openings for triathlon coaches. Not sure if that means anything.

So does this put a wrinkle in the story?

Lifetime Fitness is being sold to a private equity firm.

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I have overheard a lot of consultations between triathlon coaches at LifeTime and clients that have almost had me laughing at loud....