If its a unique event you want to put on I think you are over thinking it.....
Otillo/Ironman did not happen because of "market analysis"
-Someone had a cool idea....
-it was unique, different than other events
-they started small because it was just a few friends and they aren't doing it to make money or make it a business
-word of mouth got the word out
-attendance increased and so did the "professional" aspect of the race
-people heard about this cool event and demand soared
I am still a little confused about how you are thinking of going about this....why not just come up with the event and keep cost low and initial attendance expectations low....we are on the same page on all this right?
the key is: It has to be unique and it can grow because you cant do this event anywhere else....
don't use the HITS approach....and don't get me wrong...I hope they succeed....I really do!....they seemed very customer focused and put great effort to put on well organized events....but they are not unique...not enough difference to other Triathlons (I think we agree here)....When they announced they were doing an event near Minneapolis I KNEW it would fail. WE have a huge amount of very well done Triathlons in this state (approximately 70 or so in a 4.5 month season...I am not kidding.. The attendance numbers in Lake Waconia (near Minneapolis) were abysmal...I could not believe they thought they could make it work here...I could have warned them...the event here are very well done, we don't have room for another well done triathlon (unless you want to scale it to 150 participants the first year and perhaps grow slowly by offering a low entry fee...
A couple unique event examples I can offer.....have you heard of orienteering?....I have done it along with triathlons the last 10 years...
I decided that most endurance athletes could not do the technical navigation very well and that is what turns them off on orienteering. They get lost, have to stop (they hate that!) and cant figure out where they are as they walk around....they don't come back to Orienteering meets because they aren't able to use their running skills...and don't want to do tough navigation on the run....
so, on my own, I offered a night orienteering event (use headlamps) where you ran in pairs or 3's or 4's (you only need one person that needs to navigate so they can invite their non navigating friends) and designed a course with easier navigation so the emphasis was on running the course...called it "adventure running"....Orienteering sounds like "Engineering" and doesn't describe the "off trail adventure" these events offer
after doing a few of these events we eventually had about 100 people show up for a "non official event" (no website, no Facebook, no on line reg) and VERY few were the local serious orienteering group....they were my running and triathlon friends.....I charged 5$/person and made money (wasn't trying to) and I paid for the Orienteering maps we used and permits for the park. I actually had people pay on the honor system...throw your $ in a bag over there and make your own change....I quit doing them because I did'nt have a much interest or time later (got married..had a kid) but I have no doubt I could have grown it into something bigger and more official....it was unique and different..the local paper did an article on it.....
want and example of an event very similar to this but made it to and "official level"...Raid the Hammer Adventure Run
http://dontgetlost.ca/....php/raid-the-hammer Do you know what a Mountain Marathon is?....(its not a pure running marathon)....in the UK (primarily) their are just a few of these events.....but well attended.
2 person teams
Navigate a course of checkpoints through the Fells in the Lake District and finish at a campsite
At the end of the first day you camp out over night in the Fells with the entire race field,
You have to carry all your food, and tent and most of your liquid on your back
The next morning you break camp and pack up.
You start and navigate another course through the beautiful Fells of the Lake District carrying everything you need
You finish the 2nd day and results are determined by total time for both days.....
My wife and I flew to England to do one a couple years ago (and to visit her best friend)...I heard about it, read about it...had to do it....it was a great memory and I wish e had something here like it....problem, Like Otillo..the location and what you need is hard to find....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_marathon here is the one we did....about 2,000 people do it in 2 person team with multiple courses (8 courses ranging in length and climb)....check it out.....look at the photos....stunning scenery
http://www.slmm.org.uk/ also, this is a unique event that is different from the orienteering meets....and adventure races.....but its a major event that was grown slowly over time...mainly word of mouth...
Unique events are out there....And you could offer up yours.....my unsolicited advice:
plan the course..keep it low key the first couple of years
budget for a few participants...
grow it and increase it....
you can do all this without "market analysis"
I am curious what kind of event are you thinking of putting on?....spill it!....what ideas do you have... .