Go to Louisville. All the KQ athletes will be in Kona.

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

Well which are you? A strong runner, biker or well-rounded?

Edit: Spelling.

I'm well rounded based on my placing relative to my competition in the various disciplines but I can leave that designation to ST based on my best IM times. Generally in the top 5% for both Bike and Run. I'm not a terrible swimmer, but I've got some work to do to. Best IM swim in 1:08. Best bike 5:30 in CDA and best run is 3:45 in IM Wisc.

Open Marathon in 2:57. No other open times as a data point.

I've probably got more than a year to go from the 10:40s down to the 9:40s, but with some changes in life allowing me to switch from a weekend warrior to some more focused training I'm holding on to optimism.

Open marathon 2:57 and a 3:45 in an IM. I would say you over bike by quite a bit, which means a bike best of 5:30 is not that great in comparison to what your run should be.

Your run should be way better. I would opt for difficult run courses and dial your bike back a bit.

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if you are KQing you need to be a great cyclist and great runner, and correctly pace, course doesnt matter

You might look at Cabo. It's within a couple weeks of Kona, so most of the KQ people will still be recovering, plus it's a smaller field. Last time it was ~ 800 if I remember correctly.

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"Thankfully, persistence is a great substitute for talent" - Steve Martin
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With a 1:08 swim, you need to run better or bike better. With a 2:57 you shoukd be able to run closer to 3:30... since 1min/mi slower is usually a relatively easy pace. I suspect you need to get stronger on the bike to execute the run better.

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I'm going to be straight up honest in this response. A race you may think is a *sleeper* could be a loaded race. Some may take a year off & not being going to Kona this year, but are planning a race others (such as yourself), may be a considering it a sleeper race as well. They may be seasoned veterans & just show up. You may be a bigger guy & thus a hillier course may not suit you best. Or smaller athlete & think a hillier course is best. Fact is, on any day you can have a great race if prepared well enough, no matter the course. I'm at 148 lbs today & have weighed less and more at different races, done well at either flat or hilly courses. Other days are just not good at all. It's a crap-shoot & you prepare to handle whatever the situation best you can to minimize any sort of failure on your part.

Any course is good on any given day. I try to steer people towards more of a "what is the best time of year" for you to perform at? (Rather than what race is best to KQ.) Some come into the season with arms swinging ready to crush it. Others build through the season & knock it outta the park later in the season. Some are just the same all season long. What sort of athlete are you?

Aside from that, logistically, with work, family, finances, etc. works best for you? Aug-Nov. is a pretty big range. Snow hits in parts of the country at the latter end of your range--how would this affect your training in a positive or negative manner near your A-race? Lots of questions there beyond just those.

Lastly, I suggest (as I have suggested to those I coach), to take the eyes off of the trophy of Kona & just focus on preparing to execute & perform to the best of your ability on race day. Kona is a distraction during a race, although an admirable goal. Perform YOUR best and if it is good enough, you'll qualify. But chasing a ghost you don't have is pointless. Just chase your potential and doing your best--it'll happen if you keep at it with relentless determination.

^^^this^^^ (excellent advice)

That sounds really good and zen and all, but don't you think that it would help to know (i.e. organize somebody to give you splits) when - with say 5k to go - the last slot in your AG is just 1 min up the road to give you a little extra boost? It would sure suck to realize on the finishline that you juuuust missed it...
Thankfully I will probably not have that problem in my first WTC longdistance in 12 days. Hopefully not too far away either though...

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if you can read this
YOU'RE DRAFTING!

Totally agree. You just never know. Some guys only race Kona every other year, and pick a favorite Fall race to KQ.

IMWI for example was a little was softer last year is 4&5th place, though it was windy and wavy. Top 2 were soft this year, but 1-5 were I think only 14 minutes apart.

On the flip side, I crunched some numbers and there was a scenario where I could have gone 4 minutes faster (no penalty) and been 6th pace in 35-39, the 7th amateur, 16th overall and not KQ'd. This based on 1 guy doing 70.3 worlds, and 2 very fast guys having bad races that day.

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I will be racing IMLO next yr in M35-39 so you will have to beat me! lol....good luck in deciding...in my group of friends we tell our gf/wives what month(s) we want to race and then let them pick the place...I agree with some prev comments about IMLO being sleeper race and everyone knows about it...look at this yr: local coach (m35-39) up around were i live went 9:38 and did not KQ, you just never seem to know. Race the best race you can be happy with result and hope maybe its good enough for a KQ.

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2024: Bevoman, Galveston, Alcatraz, Marble Falls, Santa Cruz

If you're doing it right & DESERVE to get a slot, no, it will NOT matter to know splits--who is ahead--or anything else about someone outside of yourself. By the finish line, you should have absolutely nothing left. If you do & you need to lean on "information" from others to race your best race to attempt to secure a slot, then you don't deserve to go to Kona. Period. Getting there is about being with the best in the world. If you're only the best in your own little world (not you specifically), because someone gave you a split to get the lead out of your arse, then no...you're not only NOT doing your best, but aren't one of the best in the world. Thus, you should stay home until you learn that lesson of giving it every last drop of everything you have.

It's not "zen" it's common sense and reality. It's also a large part of why so many who are *so close* to Kona, don't actually ever make it there.

Nah, its because they don't poop themselves.

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

I do not think you should plan on doing a race based on the level of competition present or the number of kona slots available. It is total luck who else shows up to the race and what form that they have, since any race that looks like it could be a good one to qualify for will attract the people wanting to qualify. Any race with lots of kona slots will also attract lots of people that want to qualify for Kona. Any race that takes place around Kona will just attract the really fast people that were not at Kona that year, but want to get qualifying out of the way for next year. It is a total roll of the dice.

I agree with much of what Rocky M said and would add that racing close to home would probably be preferable. If it is close to home you can go and train on the actual course. Being able to do the course over and over has many advantages, some of them obvious like knowing how fast to take corners and what sort of gearing, but also less obvious ones. It is a well studied phenomenon that your first drive to a new location feels longer than the return trip or subsequent trips. With the known route your brain will go into more a cruise control mode and you will perceive the distance being shorter than it is.

Also you will be used to the normal winds or temperature. You will also have less hasseles and stress from traveling.

.... Except those only want to race only one IM a year and try to KQ every other year.

If I could do this through 2017... 2 more years, Louisville, IMWI, Muskota would be on my radar for 2016.

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Think about it from the point of view of someone who is likely to qualify. Think-"What race would I want to do?"
Now- chose the race that you would least like to do.

Not that I am sure to qualify. Yet here are my thoughts:
Arizona and Florida- look good to me. (I get a whole year to rest and pre-pare or train for other things). I would race those.
Old St. Louis- under no circumstances would I do that. Do I really want to race kona 4 weeks after an epic struggle in the heat. (New date looks much better)
Summer races- are in nice places but do I really want to race in the summer and then go to Kona? (Maybe not)
Texas- that race might suck but the timing is better.
Outside U.S. - great but I don't want to spend my kona budget on travel. (This is a good chose. As long as you do not chose Australia. They are badass triathletes down there).


If I were you I would chose LAKE TAHOE:
1) Hard course- many will be scared.
2) Bad timing- if I am one is not racing kona that year than they are probably racing 70.3 worlds, usat nationals, or Olympic distance worlds.
3) You appear to be a stronger runner than cyclist. Why would you opt for a difficult bike? Many of your competitors are probably both heavier and more powerful on the bike. Lots of climbing will tilt the equation in your favor.

The problem with qualifying is that it is not how fast you are but who shows up. One year I qualified for kona with a 9:39 at IMAZ.
Two years later, I would have missed with a 9:24.

Tahoe is a better bet this year than last year too. I know a couple people who qualified there last year who are skipping it this year to prep for Kona.

I'm doing the half hoping fast people are either preparing for Kona, don't want to race soon after 70.3 Worlds, AND there's a big rolldown due to people not wanting to commit to travel to Austria next year. My time is going to be within a few minutes if I execute to my fitness level. That won't be enough to win my AG, but my chances to qualify are much more dependent on who shows up than which front wheel I run, etc.

One negative thing about a KQ at Tahoe, is that people have 12.5 months to prepare vs a race with a quick turnaround.

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/kj

http://kjmcawesome.tumblr.com/

^^
this

Since Louisville is the same day as Kona in 2015, as long as you can race in heat, absent competition will give you a much better chance

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Tahoe- I would love to go.
I have relatives that live nearby.
I love the place.
The course would be ideal for me.
Not expensive to get there.

Yet I will never race there.

Why?
I can probably qualify for kona elsewhere and the timing is horrible.
It is the first month of kids school, 1 month before Kona, 1 month after usat nationals, 1 week after Olympic distance worlds, 2 weeks after 70.3 worlds.
No - it is Tahoe vs every other important amateur race.
Tahoe will loose that battle more often than not.

Maybe the Lake Tahoe race will be at some other time next year.
But when?

If you are in an older age group there is less competition in the European IM races than the North American or NZ/Australia IM races making it better odds that you will get to Kona (if you are an old guy). Having said that you have got to want to do the race and enjoy it. You never know who will turn up to race, so Kona slots can not be guaranteed even in a small field.

Of course Kona slots are now that much harder to get as the number of slots given to IM races has been reduced nearly every year by WTC. There used to be a lot more slots to compete for.