Me too except that he has not had a bad year. Still....

He's had a gradual rise to the top. Success as a junior and, assuming he wins the tour, won all three grand tours roughly from "easiest" to "hardest" in order. He's always shown he's a canny racer like when he came third in Liege-Bastogne-Liege a few years ago. The other competitors he has left in the race are either still improving or already nearing the end of their career while Nibali is in his prime. As for him having a "poor year" I disagree. Being triathletes we should know about periodization which is what he did this year saying he would focus on the tour. In his build-up, especially at the Dauphine, he made clear that he was finding his race legs after doing a long stint of endurance training at altitude. He didn't fail, he set limits for himself and didn't want to push too hard too soon. - I know this from having watched the Italian coverage of this race on RAI - It was clear during the race as you could see he, relatively speaking, was not pushing himself as hard as the other guys, he just went at his own pace and didn't waste energy trying to immediately follow every attack.

Of course I don't know whether he's doping or not but in my opinion the past and current situation don't suggest that he is.

I am just having a hard time with the fact that after a poor year (until the tour) he is SOOOOOOO much better than everyone else //

You mean everyone else that did not crash out or get sick? Don't have such a narrow view of what is going on, pretty sure he would be just sitting on guys wheels and getting dropped at the top if the favorites where there. Right about where he should be too. He just got really lucky this year, great form and really bad luck for his rivals. I'm going to give all the top guys the benefit of the doubt these days, not so the domestics. Just look how well the french are doing, and how many people have bad days now as compared to now one having bad days in the past.


And keep in mind the scrutiny is also 10 times more powerful on the top guys today, even compared to just a few years ago. Not to say they are not doping, just once again that it would be extremely difficult to beat so many tests and the circumstancial evidence that can ruin you and your career at this point. A lot more to lose these days. And i fully believe that guys like Stetina and others in their early/mid 20's are clean, and they seem to be keeping up pretty well, even fighting for podium spots. You guys just have too much to lose at this point in their careers, so if they can ride clean, i think they are..

+1

I'm sure there are still dopers out there, but I strongly believe that there are a lot of clean riders out there doing well also. I don't subscribe to suspicion based purely on performance. Armstrong was possibly an exception, because he was crushing so many people that we knew were doped that it seemed almost impossible for him to be clean, plus of course there was a lot of other evidence coming out.

Whereas to my knowledge there's nothing on Nibali other than "he's fast", and the guys he's beating are either out of form or not at their peak (both too old and too young). Have to admit I've been slightly surprised at just how comfortably he's won the climbs, I thought he'd have at least one day where he struggled a bit, but that's not enough to accuse him of anything. However if he crushes Tony Martin by 5 minutes on the time trial, I reserve the right to change my mind :)

Wait....are you saying that LA regularly had poor years and THEN just went out and dropped everyone? 'Cuz that wasn't what happened. I am hardly a lance fan-boy, but one thing you can't take away from him is his dedication and work ethic. The guy busted his ass....I'll give him that.

As for your overall innuendo, I want to believe that a woman with no substantial athletic background other than riding a clunker mountain bike around Nepal arrived out of nowhere, dominated the hardest races of the year, went undefeated in 13 IM's and shattered PNF's record @ Roth by over a half-hour.....

See how that works?

(as previously noted, I have not implying CW doped. Just illustrating the flaws in this logic.)

---

Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

I thought he'd have at least one day where he struggled a bit, but that's not enough to accuse him of anything.//

Like i said, guys that could drop him were out. Contador popped him once before he left, no reason to think he would not have on the harder mountain stages, and along with our british abandon..He hasn't struggled because he is now head and shoulders the class of the field, all by pure chance.

Looking forward to the TT. The battle for the last 2 podium should be exciting. And it's always fun to watch Tony Martin throw down.

Going to predict Peraud followed by Valverde and Pinot for places 2 to 4. Barring mechanicals or a crash Tony Martin should win quite handily. Kiriyenka is presumably the next best time trialist in the race. Lars Bak and Svein Tuft are other guys that spring to mind. Any darkhorses?

Geraint Thomas for the dark horse. 2 time Olympic team pursuit champion so knows how to ride a high tempo and hurt himself. Finished second in both the prologue and ITT at the Giro a few years ago. Hasn't really featured since then as he's always been on domestique duties. Looked in cracking form early in the Tour, got himself in a few breakaways after Porte dropped out of contention but couldn't get anything to stick. Has been very quiet the last few days, I'd guess he's saving himself for a go at the TT. Can't see him getting close to Martin, but should be there or thereabouts for a podium finish. May also want to prove to Sky that he still has the legs at the end of a 3 week stage race, if he has any ambitions to lead the team himself at some point.

Good pick. Richie Porte could probably put down a decent TT under normal circumstances as well but I think he's really suffering.

I have a hard time believing everyone is clean. Tinkoff stated that doping was a thing of the past, but how are guys riding better and faster than those from the 'certain' doping era. Every ex-doping cyclist indicated that his involvement started when he was getting dropped by guys he knew he was better than, and that the PED gave around a 15% to 20% advantage. In his book, Hincapie states how he couldn't compete without the drugs regardless of the training (but then goes on to say that he quit doping, although he miraculously could now somehow beat his doping times). Now we have many young riders as top GC contenders in a doping free tour (while many of the current directors and other team managers are former dopers)? While I hope that's the case, Hincapie, Hamilton, and I think even Lance inferred that you have to be sloppy in your routine to get caught. So we either have a doping free tour, or better dope hiding by those involved, or a lack of enforcement.

Props to Tejay. He's ridden a great Tour and will have a very good TT. I think the longer distance suits him.
Such a solid rider and a good guy. Has a long way to go.

You have no metric for the claim that guys are riding better and faster than those from the doping era, other than a vague reference to a single rider getting better times. Nibali summited Hautacam today in 37:20; Riis summited in 34:38 in '96. That's a single data point with a million variables in play (including a completely different stage route), but when you start comparing a ton of ascent times and come to a similar conclusion (today's times are significantly slower than times by known dopers), it certainly doesn't indicate improvement over the riders from the mid/late '90's to early/mid '00's. Racing styles have completely changed as well; commentators were amazed that Nibali went for it with 8km on Hautacam, and the rest of the GC contenders didn't really go for it until 4.5-5km to go.

As for the younger riders competing for GC (there are only Pinot and Bardet, though you could argue Majka counts, as he certainly seems like he could've been the GC contender for any non-Sky/Saxo/Astana/Movistar team), it's certainly possible they're doping, but they've been strong performers and had an improvement track that is not at all unbelievable for developing riders.

Again, it could well be that doping is happening at an extreme level, and it's clear that it still occurs (calling Ulissi/Kreuziger), but I would argue that the evidence is reason to be optimistic.

 Nibali summited Hautacam today in 37:20; Riis summited in 34:38 in '96.//

And bikes are probably 5 lbs lighter today too. And they know how to actually climb efficiently(sitting down, except for horner of course). So given just those two data points, and all the advances, one would conclude there is no doping now. Of course as you said, many variables before you can compare times and come up with some type of conclusion.

The UCI lowered minimum bike weight limitations during the last few years by 5lbs? I missed That memo...

---

Remember - It's important to be comfortable in your own skin... because it turns out society frowns on wearing other people's

Watch out for Tom Dumoulin from Giant-Shimano.
This year already three times in a tt second behind Tony Martin, only a couple seconds behind. And he won the tt in Criterium International.
Also became Dutch national tt champ with a margin of almost a minute, impressive, if you consider he crashed in that tt.
And only 23 years old!

The UCI only introduced the limit in 2000. I don't know how accurate his data is, but this guy has weights for the Tour-winning bike pretty much every year since the 1990s, and according to him Miguel Indurain's bike when he won in 1994 was 19.8lbs. Assuming everybody today rides a bike bang on the 15lb limit, Monty was out by 0.2lbs...

Besides, it's not just the weight of the bike to consider. There have also been improvements in frames (carbon giving the ability to be stiff where they need to be, compliant where they don't), in aero, in shifting, etc. All incremental individually, but add them together and a modern bicycle is significantly quicker than it's 20 year old predecessor.

I think Christian VDV has been a good addition to the TV crew this year. He struggles at times to get his words out but his insight has been very interesting. That being said they have to get Jens on the show next year. He is broadcast gold.

---

------------------------
Loud pawls save lives

[/img]
I did Roth in 2010 and then went to the Tourmelet to watch the Tour. These past few days brought back great memories. While the peloton may never be entirely clean, in my view there is a very different "industry standard" now. The last few years have really changed things. Great racing.

The UCI lowered minimum bike weight limitations during the last few years by 5lbs? I missed That memo…..


He was talking about the time when Riis won in 96, don't know for sure what they weighed then, but i bet close to 5 lbs more or thereabouts. My bike sure did.
---------------------------------------------------------

I never thought I'd see the day when I would be watching the TDF and the first two commercials that would be shown during a break would be for Jelly Beans and Chocolate Milk

---

_________________________________________________
When all is said and done. More is usually said than done
Ba Ba Booey

YES on Jens.

Top 50 times up Pla d'Adet. 2 of top 10 times this year - Niboli and Peraud (how old is that guy again?).


1. 1993: 29:35 Zenon Jaskula 20.89 km/h
2. 1993: 29:35 Tony Rominger 20.89 km/h
3. 1993: 29:38 Miguel Indurain 20.85 km/h
4. 2001: 29:48 Lance Armstrong 20.74 km/h
5. 1993: 30:00 Stephen Roche 20.60 km/h
6. 2014: 30:32 Vincenzo Nibali 20.24 km/h
7. 2014: 30:32 Jean-Christophe Péraud 20.24 km/h
8. 2005: 30:34 Ivan Basso 20.22 km/h
9. 2005: 30:34 Lance Armstrong 20.22 km/h
10. 1993: 30:41 Robert Millar 20.14 km/h
11. 1993: 30:43 Andrew Hampsten 20.12 km/h
12. 1993: 30:43 Alvaro Mejia 20.12 km/h
13. 2001: 30:48 Jan Ullrich 20.06 km/h
14. 2005: 30:58 Michael Rasmussen 19.96 km/h
15. 2005: 30:58 Francisco Mancebo 19.96 km/h
16. 1993: 31:10 Richard Virenque 19.83 km/h
17. 1993: 31:10 Jon Unzaga 19.83 km/h
18. 1993: 31:10 Claudio Chiappucci 19.83 km/h
19. 1993: 31:12 Jean-Philippe Dojwa 19.81 km/h
20. 1993: 31:14 Johan Bruyneel 19.79 km/h
21. 1993: 31:16 Gianni Faresin 19.77 km/h
22. 2014: 31:21 Alejandro Valverde 19.71 km/h
23. 1993: 31:24 Antonio Martin 19.68 km/h
24. 2014: 31:26 Thibaut Pinot 19.66 km/h
25. 2014: 31:26 Tejay Van Garderen 19.66 km/h
26. 1993: 31:27 Roberto Conti 19.65 km/h
27. 1993: 31:27 Bjarne Riis 19.65 km/h
28. 2001: 31:34 Joseba Beloki 19.58 km/h
29. 2001: 31:34 Roberto Heras 19.58 km/h
30. 2014: 31:36 Laurens Ten Dam 19.56 km/h
31. 2014: 31:47 Mikel Nieve 19.44 km/h
32. 2014: 31:50 Rafal Majka 19.41 km/h
33. 2005: 31:58 Jan Ullrich 19.33 km/h
34. 2005: 31:59 Alexandre Vinokourov 19.32 km/h
35. 2014: 32:00 Romain Bardet 19.31 km/h
36. 2005: 32:20 Levi Leipheimer 19.11 km/h
37. 1993: 32:28 Franco Vona 19.03 km/h
38. 2014: 32:32 Giovanni Visconti 19.00 km/h
39. 2014: 32:39 Alessandro De Marchi 18.93 km/h
40. 2001: 32:40 Igor Gonzalez De Galdeano 18.92 km/h
41. 2005: 32:40 Christophe Moreau 18.92 km/h
42. 1993: 32:50 Pedro Delgado 18.82 km/h
43. 1993: 32:50 Alberto Elli 18.82 km/h
44. 2014: 32:55 Pierre Rolland 18.77 km/h
45. 2005: 33:00 George Hincapie 18.73 km/h
46. 2014: 33:02 Frank Schleck 18.71 km/h
47. 2014: 33:02 Bauke Mollema 18.71 km/h
48. 2001: 33:03 Marcos Serrano 18.70 km/h
49. 2005: 33:06 Oscar Pereiro 18.67 km/h
50. 1982: 33:13 Beat Breu 18.61 km/h

1993!!! Wow.

But even Mr 60% is way down on the list that year. Clearly things changed before 1996 for him.

---

Suffer Well.

1993 was the year that EPO was in widespread use (Hincapie, 'The Loyal Lieutenant')

When you take a look at the risk/reward dynamic, some form of low level doping would make sense to many people involved. So you may have to take a one or two year suspension, but that certainly does not appear to be a career ender. However, if you win a stage, win a jersey, win a jersey for a day, or even get the 'most aggressive rider', it could make your career, and helping a team member get that can keep you on the team for another year.