You clearly have a different standard of talent, which is probably why we're differing.

I think you're talking about the level of talent required to run at highly competitive levels if you train.

I'm talking about talent compared to the rest of the joe schmos in triathlon, since honestly, that's more of the target of the folks who read your swim comments about progress are targeting.

I would say you CLEARLY have run talent if you can run a 19:30 5k on 18mpw or less without a significant running background. You will be clearly FOP in all AGs in both running and triathlon races with that result. No it's probably not good enough to podium except at small local races, and probably unlikely that even with dedicated training, that you'll run fast enough to be as fast as an NCAA college runner, but it's still a significant degree of talent nonetheless - it's certainly not NO talent.

If you want no talent, I'll show you over dozens of triathletes who train quite hard, and for a good number of hours, even with quality private coaching, who are still so slow in multisport, or even if they're single sport athletes that you could probably call them 'no talent.' These folks train hard too - I see them doing hard track intervals at on track workout day, and they spend a lot of time training. Just because they can't hammer it at FOP paces doesn't mean they're dilly dallying and taking it easy just because they're not swimming 1:10s.

meh. I think talent is overrated at the AG level. All it means is that it comes to some people quicker than others.

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19:30 5k with <18miles/week has some talent but not too extraordinary. However, i think the ability to improve is much more significant that where you start off. I find it really hard to believe that some triathletes who train hard that can't be FOP. Sure you've listed some good cases that they may LOOK like they lack talent, but what if they are
1. Just started the sport
2. Didnt train much during the winter, so no base, and just jumped right in to intervals on track cuz they were desperate now.
3. Fat
4. was sedentary all from age 0-30.
5. Injured a lot from previous years.
6. gave birth in increments of like every other year to 3 children so they couldn't legitly train for 3 years or more.
...etc more reasons im sure.

I'm sure if those guys kept their intense training regime as youve noticed, i can't understand why they can't be in FOP. Given that they don't fall in any of the categories that i've listed above.

FOP is pretty vague, honestly I probably shouldn't have used that vague term to begin with. But those concrete numbers discussed above like a 1:10/100 as an adult-onset swimmer, that's definitely not possible for everyone, nor is a 'mediocre' 19:30 5k, even with maxxed training.

Some people just have terrible VO2 maxes. Some just have too heavy a build, and some have terrible muscular endurance. Just because you can't see it, doesn't mean it's any less of a handicap than watching a 4'11 guy try to play on a collegiate basketball team. Sure, it might be POSSIBLE, but it's so unlikely that he'd have to be a superstar ball handler/shooter just to play at an adequate level on a small-league high school varsity squad.