This is more my feeling too, if he seriously wanted to I believe he could be a top triathlete but not a world champ. He could conceivably improve for another couple years and I can't imagine the drop off would be severe, I mean, he spent 15 years building to his peak now, you would expect the decline to be gradual also. Injury IMO is the biggest variable, that's where I feel a lot of older athletes lose ground and then are never able to regain fitness. Studies have proven that in fit individuals who consistently work out, the decline in performance is surprisingly slow.

Fernanda Keller at 48 and Natascha Badmann at 45 are still going strong (were it not for her lingering shoulder injury from the '07 Kona crash, even stronger) ... are they and other older pros going to be at their peak? No, but as stated the regression in fitness is likely to be quite slow, so they could conceivably stay in the mix for some time to come.

Dave,

Another thing that should be mentioned, and we've seen it on this thread is the exceptions always get mentioned and hoisted up as examples. These people, are freaks! They can somehow take the pounding, the push to the limit racing and training and keep going and going and going. They are the worst people to use as examples in this area. But in this age of "anything is possible" spurred on by catchy brand slogans and hope, people seem to honestly believe, that this is the case.

The immortal question presented by Def Lepard o' so many years ago... Is it better to burn out? Or fade away?

Most of the greats will burn out -- stop racing due to some debilitating injury. In order to slowly fade away you must be very disciplined, and your ego can't be too big. Like Icararus, we all want to fly higher, sometimes just a bit too close to the sun.

The immortal question presented by Def Lepard o' so many years ago... Is it better to burn out? Or fade away?

Ahh, I think that was Neil Young, circa 1978 or so, on Rust Never Sleeps. :)

I am 52 and in bed getting ready to fall asleep (wearing my night splint). I must say, you're scaring me.

h2ofun]Steve, your example of yourself, is what I see in a lot of former Pro's or top AGer's who raced a lot when they were younger. Now in their 50's, many have a lot of injury issues so many have just had to hang it up.
Is this good or bad? Are you going to continue to have injury issues as you get older that impact your quality of life and you ask yourself, was it worth it?

This is why you see me ask so many that are younger and killing themselves doing IM's is it really worth it for the risk for long term quality of life? Is it worth AF?

.

The immortal question presented by Def Lepard o' so many years ago... Is it better to burn out? Or fade away?

Most of the greats will burn out -- stop racing due to some debilitating injury. In order to slowly fade away you must be very disciplined, and your ego can't be too big. Like Icararus, we all want to fly higher, sometimes just a bit too close to the sun.

Dave,

Another thing that should be mentioned, and we've seen it on this thread is the exceptions always get mentioned and hoisted up as examples. These people, are freaks! They can somehow take the pounding, the push to the limit racing and training and keep going and going and going. They are the worst people to use as examples in this area. But in this age of "anything is possible" spurred on by catchy brand slogans and hope, people seem to honestly believe, that this is the case.

Were you including my example in that characterisation? I'm not fast, never have been, but I am still getting faster at 51. I went under 10:00 for the first time last month (on the Dev plan: 1:00, 5:11, 3:38, :05). I happily race 2 - 3 IMs &/or ultras per year, (have done for >25 years) and I have never had an overuse injury (I do get tired, so I rest, I don't get broken). It has never occurred to me that this was freakish, although I know as I age it is increasingly uncommon. I just thought I was being sensible. I commented on another thread that many triathletes seem to train in a way that is designed to induce injury, and accept injury as part of the process. It shouldn't be - injury is a sign of something badly wrong.

I don't think I'm "the worst people to use as examples", I actually think I'm a good example of how endurance training and competing can be part of a long-term healthy lifestyle, rather than the usual "do it like crazy 'till you break" attitude that is so commonplace.