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Must be right - the polls say so
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AP says it is even: AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent
http://news.yahoo.com/...yuDEjJszpdAh4hmyFz4D

NBC says 10 point lead: Poll: Obama opens biggest lead over McCain Obama 52 and McCain 42 percent
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27297013/

I wonder who's right?
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Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Brent F] [ In reply to ]
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It will be very interesting.


I just hope the LR takes a week off after the election.



The fatfoot is coming....
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Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Brent F] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
AP says it is even: AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent
http://news.yahoo.com/...yuDEjJszpdAh4hmyFz4D

NBC says 10 point lead: Poll: Obama opens biggest lead over McCain Obama 52 and McCain 42 percent
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27297013/

I wonder who's right?

Obama Continues to Lead Nationally
Obama leads in all 10 national polls today. His average lead is 7.6%.
- Battleground (Obama +1)
- Diageo (Obama +6)
- Gallup expanded (Obama +8)
- IBD (Obama +6)
- Ipsos (Obama +8)
- Pew (Obama +14)
- Rasmussen (Obama +4)
- WSJ/NBC (Obama +10)
- WaPo/ABC (Obama +9)
- Zogby (Obama +8)
Last edited by: PeckerHead: Oct 22, 08 11:27
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Re: Must be right - the polls say so [PeckerHead] [ In reply to ]
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Piling on here (from www.fivethirtyeight.com):



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"Go yell at an M&M"
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Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Old and Haggard] [ In reply to ]
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Quite the range. The national polls in that chart range from Obama +1 to Obama +14
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Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Brent F] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
Quite the range. The national polls in that chart range from Obama +1 to Obama +14
Well, there's a +1 and two +4s, and a +14 and a +10. Other than those, the remaining 8 range from +6 to +9, which isn't that big a range.

----------------------------------
"Go yell at an M&M"
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Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Brent F] [ In reply to ]
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Its going to the wire. And Nov. 5 we still may not know who won.
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Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Old and Haggard] [ In reply to ]
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Wide range with a narrow standard deviation
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Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Brent F] [ In reply to ]
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I just hope its a large win , tired of old Floridians and chads . If the poll is verbal some will go with the group rather than put the political wedge in a group friendship . None show a margin for error / % ,,,, ???
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Re: Must be right - the polls say so [HUB] [ In reply to ]
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I'm following electoral-vote.com and it shows a pretty big lead for Obama. I think the algorithm it uses is pretty decent as well since it doesn't rely on any one poll. Also, the election in 2004 was definitely close and this website correctly showed that based on the algorithm. And based on the algorithm for 2008, it shows Obama with 364 EV's today. Now, it may get closer as the election draws near, but that is how it stands today.

--
01001010 01100101 01101110 01001000 01010011 00100000 01101001 01110011 00100000 01010100 01101000 01100101 00100000 01000100 01100101 01110110 01101001 01101100 00100000 00101000 01100001 01100011 01100011 01101111 01110010 01100100 01101001 01101110 01100111 00100000 01110100 01101111 00100000 01110010 01101111 01100001 01100100 01101000 01101111 01110101 01110011 01100101 00101001 00100001
http://trainingoferic.blogspot.com/
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Re: Must be right - the polls say so [erichollins] [ In reply to ]
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electoral-vote.com

This site is not a credible source for information. I would not rely on the information given.
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Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Brian.] [ In reply to ]
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Why?
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Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Gator1736] [ In reply to ]
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This site nor do others take into account the Wilder Effect.
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Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Brian.] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
This site nor do others take into account the Wilder Effect.
Go to www.fivethirtyeight.com and look for expositions on the Bradley Effect, and why it is not relevant.

----------------------------------
"Go yell at an M&M"
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Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Old and Haggard] [ In reply to ]
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More credible sources state otherwise.
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Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Brent F] [ In reply to ]
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I was polled by Zogby last night on the presidential race. The questions were reasonable but there were several questions that were impossible to answer properly.
Questions where the pollster required only a yes or no answer but the question really required more. Questions like giving me one aspect of So-and-So's economic plan as a preface to the question but then asking whether I liked the ENTIRE plan not just that aspect. When I said I would have to read the whole plan to make a decision that wasn't allowed.
Or odd questions like "Do you believe the American Dream exists?" When I asked for their definition of the dream they couldn't give it to me.
Then a few off the wall questions like "Would you rather visit the Lincoln bedroom or the oval office on a tour of the Whitehouse?"
Overall there didn't seem to be a slant to the questions as the preface of the Obama questions was similar to the McCain ones.
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Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Brian.] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
electoral-vote.com

This site is not a credible source for information. I would not rely on the information given.
thanks. i'm going to rely on you from now on for all my polling data. please keep me updated each time you talk to your friends about how they will be voting. i like to be on top of things.



unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothings going to get better. its not.
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Re: Must be right - the polls say so [nickc] [ In reply to ]
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Reminds of a automatized telephone poll that I took four years ago. The key part, as best as I remember, went something like this:

"If you have decided which presidential candidate you will vote for press 1." I had definitely decided, so I pressed 1.

"If you plan to vote for George W. Bush, press 1. If you plan to vote for John Kerry, press 2." WTF??? Since I decidedly would not vote for either of those clowns, I scratched my head for a moment, then pressed 3.

"If you plan to vote for George W. Bush, press 1. If you plan to vote for John Kerry, press 2." I pressed 3 again.

"If you plan to vote for George W. Bush, press 1. If you plan to vote for John Kerry, press 2." I pressed 3 again.

"Thank you for your participation."

That's why I don't trust polls.

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Two roads diverged in a wood, and I--
I took the one less traveled by,
Which is probably why I was registering 59.67mi as I rolled into T2.

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Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Rob C in FL] [ In reply to ]
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I will find the link later but Penn and Teller did a great Bullshit show on polls. They showed how you can get any numbers you wanted. It's all about how you ask the question.

customerjon @gmail.com is where information happens.
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Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Rob C in FL] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
Reminds of a automatized telephone poll that I took four years ago. The key part, as best as I remember, went something like this:

"If you have decided which presidential candidate you will vote for press 1." I had definitely decided, so I pressed 1.

"If you plan to vote for George W. Bush, press 1. If you plan to vote for John Kerry, press 2." WTF??? Since I decidedly would not vote for either of those clowns, I scratched my head for a moment, then pressed 3.

"If you plan to vote for George W. Bush, press 1. If you plan to vote for John Kerry, press 2." I pressed 3 again.

"If you plan to vote for George W. Bush, press 1. If you plan to vote for John Kerry, press 2." I pressed 3 again.

"Thank you for your participation."

That's why I don't trust polls.
do you know that the pollster was trying to find out? perhaps the pollster didn't want to know about down the ballot candidates. for the most part they are not stupid people, unlike many of the people they poll.



unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothings going to get better. its not.
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Re: Must be right - the polls say so [old-as-dirt] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
In Reply To:
Reminds of a automatized telephone poll that I took four years ago. The key part, as best as I remember, went something like this:

"If you have decided which presidential candidate you will vote for press 1." I had definitely decided, so I pressed 1.

"If you plan to vote for George W. Bush, press 1. If you plan to vote for John Kerry, press 2." WTF??? Since I decidedly would not vote for either of those clowns, I scratched my head for a moment, then pressed 3.

"If you plan to vote for George W. Bush, press 1. If you pl
an to vote for John Kerry, press 2." I pressed 3 again.

"If you plan to vote for George W. Bush, press 1. If you plan to vote for John Kerry, press 2." I pressed 3 again.

"Thank you for your participation."

That's why I don't trust polls.
do you know that the pollster was trying to find out? perhaps the pollster didn't want to know about down the ballot candidates. for the most part they are not stupid people, unlike many of the people they poll.


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Last edited by: Bruce Wayne: Oct 22, 08 13:19
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Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Brian.] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
More credible sources state otherwise.
Sorry Brian, but your trite one liners aren't very believable. Typically when someone refutes something they give some "credible sources" to back it up, that is, if they have any.
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Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Mr. Tibbs] [ In reply to ]
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Exactly. I was polled last night as well. The pollster asked who are you voiting for Obama or McCain? I said Obama. The pollster responded with an incredulous but don't you know he wants to kill all the babies? I asked where did you hear that? The pollster responded from a boy at our lunch table...warning...don't trust the poll at Durham Intermediate School....
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Re: Must be right - the polls say so [PeckerHead] [ In reply to ]
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Experts and the American public tend to disagree with your viewpoint.
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Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Brian.] [ In reply to ]
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Hahahahaha!!!
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