Yes but just having an engine doesn't equate to wins in ITU. ITU is much more specific with the technical demands, and that's frankly where Webb is getting beat at. While Webb has crazy fast run speed, Webb has yet to really show crazy fast run speed off the bike. 99% of the athletes at this level are "hungry", we are sorta beyond how hungry an athlete is. Unless your basically saying, how hard he wants to work on things, that I'll agree with you.

I think it was AB when he first heard Webb was coming to ITU, yawned.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

The 200 m fly to 500 yard calculation estimate:

I used what I remembered to be senior national qualifying times from my era:
(Circa 1990)
200m fly- 2:04
500 yard free- 4:28
Zaferes was 4 seconds under for 200 m fly - that is like like 500 yard in 4:20. That seemed too fast so I added on a couple of seconds.

If I were to use today's senior national times:
200 m fly- 2:02.29
500 yard free- 4:20
(My god that 500 yard is fast. I need to fix my 1988 style turns)

The 200 fly 1:59 would be like 4:16 for the 500 free.
(Although yards times are probably more competitive than meters).

Bottom line- there is a huge difference between how fast Zaferes was swimming, and how fast Webb was swimming (even if you account for Webb's age young age).
Webb might not have been on a serious swim team, however, or he might not have been that serious about swimming.
If that were the case, he might have been much faster.
Still, for the purposes of our discussion there is a swim weakness that needs to be addressed.

Well, certainly sub-2:00 for 200 fly LCM is very impressive. I was just curious as to the extrapolation process used to get a 500 scy free time. It appears that estimates vary so we could perhaps say 4:25-ish plus/minus 3 seconds:)

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

In agreement with Boughtie.
Look at things from a game theory point of view.
Given that x happens, what are the chances that y will then happen?

The first question one would ask, if you looked at Webb's chances, would be:
1) What is the likelihood that he is willing, and has the mental and physical durability to compete at the highest level in triathlon?
(Not a given as he does not have that ability in running any more).

He seems to have shown that the chances are "very likely yes" for this first hurdle.

Ok- so now there are a whole bunch of other hurdles that he will have to leap. From a probability stand point, each hurdle is largely an independent event.

To conflate all these hurdles into one:
1) Can Webb get to T2, feeling good, with the first bunch?

The chances of Webb being able to do this are not that high.
It is a very difficult task!
But the chance are not high for anyone.
The hurdle is very very big.
The world is very large.
Someone will jump it.
But will it be Webb?

I think Alan is a very rare talent. Andrew Wheating is also a very rare talent, German Fernandez is a very rare talent, Jordan Hasay is a very rare talent (okay, so Jordan is still really young and improving...perhaps a little premature with her)...

Big engine is one thing. What set Alan apart throughout his career was how hard he worked. If you read the Chris Leer "Sub 4" book, you get a sense that his goals were far beyond what anyone else could foresee in the USA...at a time when USA distance running was in the dark ages (I think we only qualified 1 marathon runner for the Olympics (Rod Dehaven - 2:30...good for 69th and would get beat by our females these days...in fact there is likely a faster marathoner in every state of the US now), and our best runners were the 'memerable' Mark Everett, Gabe Jennings, David Krumenaker, Adam Goucher was decent, as was Meb...but guess how many of these guys even made top 10 in the Olympic finals in 2000? Zero in the 10k, zero in the 5k, none in the marathon, no one made the final in the 800, and a 10th place finish in the 1500. By his own admission, Alan was shooting a little high, but most credit him for bringing American distance running out of the 1990/early 2000s dark ages. Ironically, USA men's triathlon is essentially in the same place as distance running was back then, and look who's trying to break down some walls. Why I think he might be able to do it, is with running, you can only work so much to improve before you start out-working your foundation. He's got a v8 engine in a v6 body, and that engine has been bored, balanced, super-charged, turbocharged, and nitro'd within an inch of it's life, and that's why triathlon is going to end up being a bit of a savior for him. I don't know if Rio will be there waiting for him, but now his work ethic is focus on those technical aspects instead of tuning his engine. Everyone agrees he has the engine, but what sets him apart is his work-ethic. Focusing on those technical aspects with the same intensity that he once trained with and that's why his learning curve is so steep. Steep as it may be, he really doesn't have much time. I fear it'll be 2017 WTS circuit when he really breaks through.

I see your train of thought now, thanks for the explanation:)

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

If there is no Rio in the cards for Webb, I think his ITU career ends there. Why? Sponsorship (or lack of).

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

InWyo- interesting post.
I understand from your post:
1) Webb saw possibilities
2) U.S was very weak at running in the early 2000s.

I was thinking (after watching world cross- where True came 4th and USA 2nd)-
That the USA is more competitive in running relative to Africa,
Than the USA is competitive in triathlon versus team Europe.

Maybe Webb say this and thought he could contribute?

I pull like crazy for Ben True. He's a loaner that's self-coached and absolutely fearless. I wish he was still coached by Mark Coogan, but he took a job for New Balance days after True signed a contract extension with Saucony. Anyone who makes World Cross County a priority every season is specifically seeking out the best competition there is. Bar none, world cross county is the most competitive foot race there is.

Webb was an enigma in running. Even recently he had an insane double with a 5k and 1500 over the course of an hour (3:40 ish 1500 to a 14:00 ish 5,000m). He was a bit of a victim of his own work though (along with him inspiring dozens of other athletes to reach for his level). He had the logic of "if I did x to get to 3:43 in the mile, then obviously if I do 2*X I'll be that much better." The running scene pulled for him and it was a roller coaster, then finally it was time to just say, "we want this guy to succeed...wherever it is." He deserves to succeed, but we just don't want to be let down any more... FloTrack and LetsRun both published pieces pleading him to give triathlon a try. As much as everyone would love to see him on the track and competitive, it's just not there anymore. Honestly, the definition of success is mixed. Some would say that he better podium... I don't care if he never podiums. I just want to see him compete and be "in" the race, and I'd love to see him make the Olympic final in 2016...If he gets his wheels blown off in the last half mile, I don't care, but I just want to see him fight and be there again.

Next few weeks we will see how the big US men shake out. Cozumel this weekend, Columbia next week, Korea in 2 weeks.

Ben Kanute is a world traveler, as he's schedule to do Turkey, Cozumel, Korea in a 4 week span. No Webb in any of those races, and that's very curious. I knew with his low points ranking he wasn't getting into Cozumel, but curious to see what happened in Korea.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

  
([/quote] I think we only qualified 1 marathon runner for the Olympics (Rod Dehaven - 2:30...good for 69th and would get beat by our females these days...in fact there is likely a faster marathoner in every state of the US now),[/quote]



whoa, don't make Dehaven out to be such a chump, he was a 2:11 marathoner and back when running 2:11 wasn't so bad on the world scene either.... I've yet to see any woman run that and doubt many states have a runner faster than 2:11 today since we don't have many in the US period. Granted, he Olympics run wasn't anything to write home about....

On any given day, many elite athletes are going to underperform.
Consistently strong performance, at a national level is based on the depth of talent. Kenya wins most running events not because Rupp, Ritz, True, Derrick, Jaeger, Ryan Hall are bad runners (even by Kenyan standards). It is that Kenya has another 30 runners of this caliber to match the our 8-10.
(Or maybe Kenya has 3 runners that match Rupp, 4 that match Jaeger, 6 that match True etc.)

The point that in 2000 we only had a couple 2:11 marathon type guys is well taken. This is like the state of men's u.s. ITU triathlon right now.

Webb helps increase the depth of u.s. talent.

I would contain, however, that the best shot for an Olympic medal in triathlon is:
Option D) none of the above (or all of the unmentioned)

As an ex-swimmer, I would like to see Zaferes improve his run.

I've been impressed by Shoemaker's season, now that he's changed coaches and I think training locations as well (he probably still splits time between Colorado and Clermont). Apparently his 7th at world's was the US' best ever finish at ITU Final (I kinda double tacked at that, I had thought we had an random top 10 atleast once over the years).

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

yeah, I understand the depth issue - I was just taking issue that Dehaven was being portrayed as a "2:30 marathoner," slower than our current women and at least one runner from every state. He was a 2:11 marathon guy/ low 28:00 10k guy who happened to run a slow marathon at the olympics. Evaluating the depth of our running at that time based on a single outlier event is probably not the most accurate method.

I noticed that too - he's a new animal - who's his new coach?

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Advocating for research & treatment for Myalgic Encephalomyelitis (ME).
http://www.meaction.net/about/what-is-me/

"Suck it up, Buttercup"
(me, to myself, every day)

Henderson who I think is out of Boulder.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

Malcolm Brown, who is the Brownlee's running coach, has said some interesting things. Brown was an endurance athlete coach and only became involved with triathlon relatively late in his career. He is very dismissive of the idea that a good running engine is enough to allow someone to be competitive at the highest level. He maintains that cycling impedes running performance and vice versa: cycling on a bike for an hour at the speeds witnessed as ITU level makes running very difficult which is why it is not a given that Webb will be remotely the same runner that he would be for a one-off track race. More intriguingly, he says that when Alistair Brownlee is injured and can't run, his biking improves to the point where he murders everyone in training (including Sky riders) but the moment he starts running again, his bike performance goes down (and Brown maintains this is because of some bio-mechanical reason, rather than fatigue etc.) So it is perhaps more complicated than some think.

The assumption here from some (although much more explicit on the letsrun site) is that cycling is a relatively easy phase and can be picked up in a matter of months. But if that was the case, why do the Brownlees cycle for a minimum of 17 hours a week (more than run and swim sessions combined)? And they train with professionals (like Josh Edmonson who rides for Sky.) The bike phase is a lot tougher than people think.

Good Bobby McGee interview on Babbitville Radio - he mentioned the bike incident and also had good insight into the current ITU scene/ training strategies.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

I hate quips like this.

Murders Sky riders in training is supposed to mean what? That his cycling is world-class?

Which it most obviously isn't. So much hyperbole.

jajichan, the issue is not the hyperbole of a coach but the fact that when measured against decent semi-pro cyclists, Alistair Brownlee becomes less of a cyclist when he is back in run training. And Malcolm Brown believes this is for subtle reasons than fatigue/time etc. It is an interesting observation which is why I quoted it.

As to whether AB is world class, he clearly is the best racing cyclist in triathlon and his time and performance up that 15% climb in Kitzbuhel was entirely respectable compared to the riders in the Tour of Austria who did it earlier. And people who train with him say he is ridiculously fast (particularly up hills). Not world class but not embarrassed when compared to the pros. Perhaps in the same way that Webb is not world class (yet) as a triathlete but isn't an embarrassment!

A Sky rider is not a semi-pro cyclist. He's a world class, pro tour cyclist. So throwing out a line about anyone just going out and "trashing a world class cyclist" simply because they're focused more on cycling is flat out ridiculous.

And a time up a climb says absolutely nothing about anything other than his ability to go up a single climb fast.

He is a world class, world-beater triathlete. He is not a world class swimmer, runner, or cyclist. There's no point in making comparisons to other world class athletes in different sports because he simply isn't at that level.

Just in the interest of keeping all cited facts accurate it averages 10%. I haven't seen any comparisons but I would certainly be interested in them if you could produce any.

It would be interesting to see how Brownlee's time compared, but would only really be significant if they rode it as at TT. I think if Brownlee focused solely on running or cycling, he'd probably be mid-level elite, at least in running. For either, shedding a few lbs would help. But he won't ever... which makes it even better to debate!

With regards to Webb, he's clearly had demonstrated world-class talent (running) and from what he's shown, he's got the potential to be a pretty good DL triathlete. At his best he may have been as much at a minute faster (as runner only) than the fastest DL guys (training for triathlon, not specially running). Now, he's clearly not the same level of runner, and won't be. So assuming he could get to the point where his open 10k speed is similar, or a little faster to the top guys, he still has to deal with being not as good in the swim and bike, and being more fatigued going into the run.

That being said, if he can ever make it to the front pack coming off the bike, I don't think you ever want to be too dismissive of a guy who's run 1:43/13:10... although I'd still be putting my money on top ITU vets.

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John Hartpence, Athlete & Coach
tripence@gmail.com, @coachpence

Definitely interesting to see the two sides of it. I.e. an elite triathlete and his potential as a single-sport athlete vs. an (ex-)elite single-sport athlete and his potential as a triathlete.

We really really need Kanute or Vanort to get higher up on the points to get that 3rd spot. I just don't know where it's going to come from. Shoemaker and Maloy definitely are looking to be deserving of the top spots as they go 2/3 today at WC Cozumel.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com