monty wrote:
Ok ready to put up my top 5 men.
1. Frodo
2. Lange
3 Sanders
4. Keinle
5. Hoffman
My rationale; I really wanted to pic Patrick for the win, think he would have won last year without the penalty but, Winners find a way to win, Frodo is a winner. Last year was a lucky wake up call for him regarding Lange,(assuming Lange does not spot him 5 minutes of course) and I think that he will now have prepared for that. He will do whatever he has to on the bike to not start the run with him, where he usually would just go with the flow of the group. He probably of course has a head to head running plan, but he won't be smiling like he does running with Keinle.
And with Keinle and Sanders just 4 to 5 minutes back, Frodo will have his opportunity to have someone else make a move and then go with it. He doest have to stay with them all the way, just make that gap to T2 as much as possible.
After Lionel's great swim today I'm confident that he will have enough left after the catch to continue to have a great race. Don't think he can outrun either of the Germans, even getting spotted 5 minutes, but he outruns Keinle and Hoffman.
Keinle gets a good lead to T2 with Sanders and perhaps a Wurf or Weiss, or someone else having a great bike day, or just going for the bike record. His run will suffer, but he is used to suffering on the run, holds form and doesn't usually blow up completely.
Hoffman has a great race, is in the thick of it the whole way, but there are just guys faster than him out there.
Now any of these guys falter I like Nilsson, Don, and TO to fill their spots. TO has been there so knows what it takes, Don seems to be on a roll even discounting that bike in Rio, and Nillson is that guy who cracked top 10 that continually moves up until they challenge for the win someday.
Between Frodo probably wanting a lead on Lange and everyone wanting to keep the pace hot for exactly that purpose, do you believe there is any chance of Frodo cracking, being a bit older and just bearing more pressure. Also I think Amberger and Wurf will keep the bike pace very high and will try to go with the Kienle/Sanders train and should be able to. I'd imagine all 4 come to T2 close to each other. Frodo can be in the group of riders if he wants to/chooses to.