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Boston 2016 Chances
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Just curious: what do you think the chances are someone gets to go to the show with a time 1:22-ish under their BQ? Do you think it'll be easier or harder to get a spot come September 2015?

Thanks!
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Re: Boston 2016 Chances [manofbread] [ In reply to ]
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Probably a 50/50 possibility. You might want to run another one. Sign up for a pancake flat race, or one of the point-to-point races with a significant downhill. Marathon Guide has a list with the races with the highest qualification percentage. Congrats on qualifying.
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Re: Boston 2016 Chances [manofbread] [ In reply to ]
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not good, 50/50 at best.

2024: Bevoman, Galveston, Alcatraz, Marble Falls, Santa Cruz
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Re: Boston 2016 Chances [Poon] [ In reply to ]
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Thank you. As temperature is a big factor for me, this one was almost as ideal as I could hope for (27f at the start, 40-ish at the finish). Background: missed BQ by :03 at Richmond in 2012, blew up at 18 at Christie Clinic in '13 (talk about a FLAT course), and sputtered out at Christie Clinic due to the heat this spring. Finally realized I needed to stick to late fall races for the hot training/cold racing factor.

I was wondering how much of the entry pressure for Boston this fall was due to an echo effect from the bombings. My thought was that with that happening in the springtime, runners would likely have already been training for a marathon to have a qualifier in time for September 2013 registration (as I think it's probably harder to BQ in the summer, but maybe that's just me). Thus, all those who got newly motivated likely would not have had their BQ until after registration for the 2014 race had closed. Fast forward to this September and wouldn't you have a glut of qualifiers? I'm just curious if the cutoff time will go up or down for the 2016 race.

I guess I will simply have to wait and see.

I think if I miss out I will likely wait for the next AG time bump three years hence (or, rather, two years from next fall). Thank you for the input.
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Re: Boston 2016 Chances [nebeachbum] [ In reply to ]
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nebeachbum wrote:
not good, 50/50 at best.

50% chance of making BQ? I would take that any day!

"I would definitely smell her seat after a century ride"
Rappstar wrote:
That might be the post of the year right there.
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Re: Boston 2016 Chances [manofbread] [ In reply to ]
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There are a few races out West (Utah Valley is one example) where the course has a major elevation drop. It beats up your quads and the air is thin, but the heat is dry. You might do one of those.

The problem with the argument that demand might lessen due to the passage of time post-bombings is that there also is a huge underlying boom in marathon running generally. No signs that is weakening.
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