Hmm, I'd work at cutting down that transition time by half. Any reason its 8 minutes for both? That's a lot of precious time right there.

Highly doubt it. Top 25% of your AG maybe.

Have no idea about your training or nutrition. I would guess you can go 10:10-10:20 on a good day. Add an hour if you bonk on the run.

Was trying to say 8 minutes total fo both. So 4 mins each.

Yes, you will place within your AG.

FTW

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

I love guessing games. Let's see...

1:02 swim
4' T1
5:28 bike
4' T2
4:15 run

Total: 10:53:00

I'd guess this will get you a Top 25 placing.

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Real People. Real Coaching. Real Results. http://www.ts2coaching.com

You're right!

Maybe I was going for a horse racing theme (To Place). Seeing as Louisville is home to the Kentucky Derby. In which case, I should have said "To Show" (Top 3). Which is what I'm hoping for.

Last years 1st,2nd,3rd time were:
9:46, 10:02, 10:05.

I'm banking on the fast guys to be at Kona already.... meh

Why do you think you can place?
Do you mean top 10?

Run will be a lot faster. My guess is 3:45
I do an open 5K just under the 20' (so a lot slower than him) and ran a marathon in IM Austria 3:49

10:53 would have got me 8th based on last years results.

Male 25-29 usually isn't that deep like in the Male 30-44 range.

Maybe it's a geographically thing... but "Place" usually means Top 3.

Have you done an IM before? If not, I would back that power on the bike to IF=0.67-0.69. You don't know how your body will respond to running after swimming 2.4miles and biking 112 miles. Play it safe for your 1st. If you run better than your goal time then you know the intensity factor on the bike was good.

Your first IM? ...you'll over-bike by 10 mins and add 30 mins to your run (4:20 marathon). Pretty standard.

Prediction: 11:08 38th AG

Prove me wrong.

I was shooting for M25-29 a podium spot in Louisville until about 10 days ago. Pushed myself into a running injury, and haven't ran in 10 days. Resting up and hoping I'll be able to run by Sunday, but it's possible I may be in for a swim/bike/dnf.

For reference, I'm right on par with your swim abilities, 8 lbs lighter with an FTP of 335, 70.3 run time-1:30, and 3:00:xx open marathon.

From a little athlete list recon, it looks like theres is a decent amount of talent in our AG. The weather looks like it's going to be pretty perfect so expect fast times. Definitely going to take sub 10 hrs to podium, probably closer to sub 9:45.

Best of luck out there!

Maybe you're right...That's why it's a guessing game!!

He didn't talk about any of his training or volume, so I am guessing he is more prone to speed than endurance. I mean it is his first ironman. He'll try to ride smart, but will most likely over bike it a bit. Then he'll pay for his first timer mistakes on the run. Heck, I could be way off, but you can't win if you don't play!

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Real People. Real Coaching. Real Results. http://www.ts2coaching.com

A flat 70.3 run and you put down a 1:37, you won't place at Louisville.

Overall time, 10:50 for your Ironman

Always fun, 8 min for transition about right
Swim- 1:02, current will help
Bike - 5:31, 70% probably best for first full
Run - 4:02:00, so hard to get right on first try
10:46:00

You need to factor in that fact that last year's IMLOU race was in August in 90+ heat. You need to subtract 15-25 minutes for an October race.

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What I do: http://app.strava.com/athletes/345699

For sure just a guessing game. Just trying to have some fun with it.
My biggest fear is I'll over bike like others have already stated and have a terrible marathon.


For what it's worth - my TrainingPeaks CTL reach 155 at it's peak. So I have been coached.
I've done several 6 Hour MTB races this year. Plus Leadville and about 4-5 road 6 hour rides. So I'd like to think I can do 70-75% on my first Ironman. I hold 80-85% pretty comfortable for 70.3's.

Haven't done any Bib List creeping to size up my age group. Was really just going off last year / hoping fast guys were already in Kona

Also, good point about factoring in the heat. Or lack there of.

My biggest fear....

I hope you crush it! Trust your training and let it rip!

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Real People. Real Coaching. Real Results. http://www.ts2coaching.com

Sorry about your injury.

FTP of 335? You'll probably go sub 5 on the bike and can walk in and still finish in less than 11 hours.

Just go for it. You really have nothing to lose. Don't be afraid of your first IM. Also, it's not guaranteed you will overbike/your run will be shit.

Take this as N=1 - my first IM (Wisconsin, 07). I was targeting 1:05 swim, 5:30 bike and 3:30 marathon (didn't use power...mostly just feel)....with transitions, was targeting a 10:15. Which was squarely in running for 35-39 KQ at the time.

Swam: 1:04. Bike: 5:31 Run: 3:36. 10:19.

The key was I stayed within myself for all three (also, I trained like hell). All seemed relatively easy. Held steady over whole run...just slipped a bit at end.

Granted, missed KQ by a couple spots (still blame super weak dollar that drove a ton of fast euros to race in states at that time...damnit).

But couldn't have asked for a better maiden IM.

You're in 25-29. If you love IM, you will have plenty more chances. Don't worry, have fun, stay within yourself and give it a go.

Yes you will place somewhere in your age group.

10:32:16

There will be some harsh lessons learned.

Those are my predictions as I gaze into my delicious afternoon beer.

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Brian Stover USAT LII
Accelerate3 Coaching
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