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Wild ass guessing: How fast should I go for 40km (updated with position picture so you can trash my fit)
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Here is the question, I will try and provide as much information as possible.

course:
Lets say and out and back, dead flat, with no wind (early morning) and a Temp around 20c 100feet above sea level.

Rider
190lbs, 5'11" with broad shoulders and hips, fairly aggressive position wearing a sugoi trisuit and giro attack helmet.

Bike:
Specialized Transition, stock everything with exception of SRAM S60 front wheel. Aero bottle on frame for flat kit, and bottle between hands for drinking

Power:
Average power held for the hour 280Watts

Other details:
Only time out of aero position is to make the 180 turn around.

Any guesses?
Last edited by: Triagain2(FTDA): Feb 24, 15 11:29
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Re: Wild ass guessing: How fast should I go for 40km [Triagain2(FTDA)] [ In reply to ]
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http://aeroweenie.com/calc.html

~56:30 assuming good tires/road (.004 crr) and a good position/equipment (.23 CdA)

Could be 54 if position/equipment is incredible, or 58:30 if just average. Potentially over an hour if position/equiment is bad.

I would expect more towards 58:30 since I know nothing about you, and on average people have not great setups =)



Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter
Last edited by: jackmott: Feb 24, 15 6:29
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Re: Wild ass guessing: How fast should I go for 40km [Triagain2(FTDA)] [ In reply to ]
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How broad are your shoulders ? Also any torso measurement? Will be a cool test with our new fit based drag calculator.

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Amazonian
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Re: Wild ass guessing: How fast should I go for 40km [Triagain2(FTDA)] [ In reply to ]
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59:59

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Re: Wild ass guessing: How fast should I go for 40km [jackmott] [ In reply to ]
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I think I have a poor set up. As an example when I was fit and had a FTP of 285 (Before house build) I could not hold anything over 40KMh beyond 15 minutes.
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Re: Wild ass guessing: How fast should I go for 40km [Mrcooper] [ In reply to ]
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Given me some anatomical landmarks for the measurements and I will give you some numbers ASAP
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Re: Wild ass guessing: How fast should I go for 40km [Triagain2(FTDA)] [ In reply to ]
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Triagain2(FTDA) wrote:
Here is the question, I will try and provide as much information as possible.

course:
Lets say and out and back, dead flat, with no wind (early morning) and a Temp around 20c 100feet above sea level.

Rider
190lbs, 5'11" with broad shoulders and hips, fairly aggressive position wearing a sugoi trisuit and giro attack helmet.

Bike:
Specialized Transition, stock everything with exception of SRAM S60 front wheel. Aero bottle on frame for flat kit, and bottle between hands for drinking

Power:
Average power held for the hour 280Watts

Other details:
Only time out of aero position is to make the 180 turn around.

Any guesses?

Is that real power or Slowtwitch power?

Swimming Workout of the Day:

Favourite Swim Sets:

2020 National Masters Champion - M50-54 - 50m Butterfly
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Re: Wild ass guessing: How fast should I go for 40km [Triagain2(FTDA)] [ In reply to ]
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On mobile here is a link to a pic of the measurement faq page.

https://twitter.com/...455454063333376?s=03

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Founder: BestBikeSplit
Amazonian
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Re: Wild ass guessing: How fast should I go for 40km [JasoninHalifax] [ In reply to ]
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Both.
I am very out of shape at the moment so I can not produce anywhere near that power.
That power is from 2 summers ago, but it is real power. Not from an FTP test but from a my peak hour record as taken the years rides on Power Agent. I never did any formal testing that year (only year with my power tap wheel) and then in the only race (triathlon) of the season I crashed hard and had a really bad day. My other race was a 6 hour MTB race, LOL.

5 years before that I was way fitter (raced MTB) but I had no data and did not take part in any TT's.

I believe by mid summer I can achieve that level of fitness again as it was not that high relative to my racing years.
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Re: Wild ass guessing: How fast should I go for 40km [Triagain2(FTDA)] [ In reply to ]
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Here are some equations that might help you arrive at a reasonable estimate for your CdA:

http://www.trainingandracingwithapowermeter.com/...-anthropometric.html

Those broad shoulders (and hips) are going to work against you - see the last equation of Heil's.
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Re: Wild ass guessing: How fast should I go for 40km [Mrcooper] [ In reply to ]
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48cm shoulder width
42cm hip width
17cm hand width
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Re: Wild ass guessing: How fast should I go for 40km [Andrew Coggan] [ In reply to ]
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Thanks.
Quick question on exercise Physiology. Which is there more of in a muscle Creatine Phosphate or ATP.
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Re: Wild ass guessing: How fast should I go for 40km [Triagain2(FTDA)] [ In reply to ]
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Triagain2(FTDA) wrote:
Thanks.
Quick question on exercise Physiology. Which is there more of in a muscle Creatine Phosphate or ATP.

Skeletal muscle? Creatine phosphate (except during high intensity exercise, of course).
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Re: Wild ass guessing: How fast should I go for 40km [Triagain2(FTDA)] [ In reply to ]
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Cool will do a quick model run when I get in the office. Would be interesting to compare our calc to those mentioned by Andy earlier.

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Founder: BestBikeSplit
Amazonian
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Re: Wild ass guessing: How fast should I go for 40km [Triagain2(FTDA)] [ In reply to ]
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how in the hell are you defining hand width?
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Re: Wild ass guessing: How fast should I go for 40km [jeffp] [ In reply to ]
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width of my hands when on time trial bars. 17cm

width of my elbows on T bars. 31cm
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Re: Wild ass guessing: How fast should I go for 40km [Andrew Coggan] [ In reply to ]
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Thanks,
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Re: Wild ass guessing: How fast should I go for 40km [Triagain2(FTDA)] [ In reply to ]
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so all of your dimensions are on the bike? ie you cant shrug your shoulders? my shoulders are 48cm as well, standing up, not so much when I TT, as I keep elbows within the 19cm outside width of cups
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Re: Wild ass guessing: How fast should I go for 40km [jeffp] [ In reply to ]
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standing they are roughly 51cm wide. No matter how I shrug and protract my scapula I can not get lower then 47cm width.

Getting my elbows to 19cm is impossible. With my forearms touching I am at 26cm.
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Re: Wild ass guessing: How fast should I go for 40km [Triagain2(FTDA)] [ In reply to ]
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so you look like pop-eye

so you cannot lift your shoulders toward your ears when sitting in a chair?
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Re: Wild ass guessing: How fast should I go for 40km [Triagain2(FTDA)] [ In reply to ]
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59:xx
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Re: Wild ass guessing: How fast should I go for 40km [jeffp] [ In reply to ]
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If I shrug my shoulder as high as I can and then protract them I can achieve 43cm. And it is terribly uncomfortable (Very hard on my left shoulder) , which may improve with practice.

With some work I got my forearms together at 23cm. That is with the meat of my arms touching, I can not ride in this position. Relaxed my forearms are 31 inches circumference.
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Re: Wild ass guessing: How fast should I go for 40km [jackmott] [ In reply to ]
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jackmott wrote:
http://aeroweenie.com/calc.html

~56:30 assuming good tires/road (.004 crr) and a good position/equipment (.23 CdA)

Could be 54 if position/equipment is incredible, or 58:30 if just average. Potentially over an hour if position/equiment is bad.

I would expect more towards 58:30 since I know nothing about you, and on average people have not great setups =)

I've not bothered to figure my cry or CdA, but I went 57:34 at Church Creek this past June on 279 avg and 280 norm. I'm 6' with narrow shoulders and was 178 at the time. Less that 200ft elevation gain. Vittories EVO CX tubies and there's one section of very rough road. Bad enough that some were on the horns.

Just amazed at how accurate these calculators are!
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Re: Wild ass guessing: How fast should I go for 40km [Triagain2(FTDA)] [ In reply to ]
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all adaptations take time. saying you can't is the easy way out

my ribcage becomes my wide point when TTing, well maybe hips do, unsure, need to check photos

I ride with arms together all the way from elbows through hands. move wrists out when I want to see data(getting more difficult with age to see it however(focus going going ...))

I am 5-9, 174, similarly shaped as you, just a bit smaller and manage 29mph on about 305-315w depending on course
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Re: Wild ass guessing: How fast should I go for 40km [FatandSlow] [ In reply to ]
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It is pretty simple math to handle flat, non technical courses.
But then people tend to just pick a CdA to make their time match reality, and then "oh look how accurate".

Well yeah =)

But it is a good sign when the CdA seems plausible.


FatandSlow wrote:
jackmott wrote:
http://aeroweenie.com/calc.html

~56:30 assuming good tires/road (.004 crr) and a good position/equipment (.23 CdA)

Could be 54 if position/equipment is incredible, or 58:30 if just average. Potentially over an hour if position/equiment is bad.

I would expect more towards 58:30 since I know nothing about you, and on average people have not great setups =)

I've not bothered to figure my cry or CdA, but I went 57:34 at Church Creek this past June on 279 avg and 280 norm. I'm 6' with narrow shoulders and was 178 at the time. Less that 200ft elevation gain. Vittories EVO CX tubies and there's one section of very rough road. Bad enough that some were on the horns.

Just amazed at how accurate these calculators are!



Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter
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