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Whats going to be Lionel's fate come next Saturday?
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Been huge fan of Lionel and watching him the past few years. I still think however, that a Kona title is out of his grasp. Top 10 maybe if he executes all 140.6 miles well, I do not see a top 5 performance this year. At least not until he can demonstrate he can swim with Kienle in Kona.

One thing is that I do not get his justification of doing Kona because he swam with Kienle in June. I get he swam well then, but Samorin and Kona are apples and oranges IMO.

He still has yet to prove he can...
Swim well in an ocean
Swim well in a championship race with a deep field at the IM distance
Swim well in 80+ degree water
Swim well without a wetsuit

Swimming with Kienle in a small championship field at the 70.3 distance in a very calm (canal?) swim in a wetsuit i far different from swimming in the Kailua Bay.

I still see him coming into T1 behind Kienle and having to play "catch-up" all day in Kona, a dangerous game to play.

I do hope he can prove me incorrect, I love the guy and how he goes about everything. Here is to eating my words in 2 weeks.
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Re: Whats going to be Lionel's fate come next Saturday? [CU427] [ In reply to ]
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While I don't think Lionel will have a place on the podium, I do think he can impact the race.

If Sebi gets out of the water a few minutes before Lionel, he may be able to "relax" for the first part of the bike and hitch a ride up to the leaders (while Lionel buries himself).

If Keinle can get off the bike with the leaders without having to bury himself on the bike, I think he can challenge for the win.

/kj

http://kjmcawesome.tumblr.com/
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Re: Whats going to be Lionel's fate come next Saturday? [CU427] [ In reply to ]
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One thing is that I do not get his justification of doing Kona because he swam with Kienle in June. I get he swam well then, but Samorin and Kona are apples and oranges IMO.

He still has yet to prove he can...
Swim well in an ocean
Swim well in a championship race with a deep field at the IM distance
Swim well in 80+ degree water
Swim well without a wetsuit //

Ok, but where do you propose that he proves all of your list? He hasn't yet proven he can swim with the big fish in Kona, you want proof that he can, yet you challenge his justification of going to Kona. Geeesshhh you guys...


Lionel will be fine in the swim, swimming is swimming. He has learned how to swim in a pack, he has gotten faster in the pool, and he now has several good swim race results going into this race. Kona is not a hard swim, in fact one of the easiest courses you will ever do. Flat water with a buoy every couple minutes, and a ton of feet to swim on no matter what your speed. The new course is 200m shorter now too, so all he really has to do is swim his 53/54 pace and sit on whoever's feet are directly in front of him. It will be +/- 1 minute of Keinle, so he will shortly be with him if not already ahead. I believe he is going to have a great race(as long as all cylinders are firing) and be top 5.
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Re: Whats going to be Lionel's fate come next Saturday? [CU427] [ In reply to ]
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Funny how underestimating Lionel is ballsier than picking him to do well.
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Re: Whats going to be Lionel's fate come next Saturday? [CU427] [ In reply to ]
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I dont understand why Kienle is the benchmark for Lionel swimming well, it's not as if Kienle is a great swimmer, he also has to ride super hard to get to the front
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Re: Whats going to be Lionel's fate come next Saturday? [CU427] [ In reply to ]
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I think Lionel was very smart in looking for coaching guidance this year. I personally think it will bring another level of maturity and more refine execution on race day. I think a top 5 is definitely realistic.

it s definitly going to be a matter of him riding a very clever race and holding back. A solid swim would be a great bonus to his day...

Jonathan Caron

Jonnyo Coaching
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Re: Whats going to be Lionel's fate come next Saturday? [CU427] [ In reply to ]
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It has been discussed at length but really hoping he does well. It almost seems like a David vs. Goliath type event this year with the buildup of basically Frodeno against the field and rightfully so. Not sure if I linked it properly but kind of a funny interview he just did and a glimpse into his training leading into the race. Seems he is still training extremely hard for such a short time before the race but I am extremely novice when it comes to those details so maybe that is what everyone is doing.


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Re: Whats going to be Lionel's fate come next Saturday? [LSchmitt] [ In reply to ]
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^ So the guy in the photo is David? Ummm, okay, not really what I think of!
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Re: Whats going to be Lionel's fate come next Saturday? [LSchmitt] [ In reply to ]
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LSchmitt wrote:
It has been discussed at length but really hoping he does well. It almost seems like a David vs. Goliath type event this year with the buildup of basically Frodeno against the field and rightfully so. Not sure if I linked it properly but kind of a funny interview he just did and a glimpse into his training leading into the race. Seems he is still training extremely hard for such a short time before the race but I am extremely novice when it comes to those details so maybe that is what everyone is doing.



Is it just me or did Lionel's position get a whole lot more aggressive this year?


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Re: Whats going to be Lionel's fate come next Saturday? [Thomas Gerlach] [ajthomas] [ In reply to ]
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I thought the same thing and it seems like there was a thread a while back about him changing his position with several of the key fit experts on this forum weighing in and approving of the new position much more than last year's position.

ajthomas: if you watched the interview you would actually know that is Bob and not David. But in all seriousness that is not what I think of when I think of David either but depending on who you ask he is a sure fire winner next weekend to a sure fire DNF because he will have to make up so much of a deficit. I probably didn't make the best comparison but I am pretty sure you can see what I was getting at.
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Re: Whats going to be Lionel's fate come next Saturday? [LSchmitt] [ In reply to ]
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I don't see Lionel in the top 5. He's going to implode on that run.

What i found ironic is that around 5:30 in the video Lionel is riding his bike with earphones in both ears... yet he bitches about cycling safety while riding outside.




LSchmitt wrote:
It has been discussed at length but really hoping he does well. It almost seems like a David vs. Goliath type event this year with the buildup of basically Frodeno against the field and rightfully so. Not sure if I linked it properly but kind of a funny interview he just did and a glimpse into his training leading into the race. Seems he is still training extremely hard for such a short time before the race but I am extremely novice when it comes to those details so maybe that is what everyone is doing.



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Re: Whats going to be Lionel's fate come next Saturday? [monty] [ In reply to ]
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I don't see a top 5 this year but wouldn't mind being wrong. I think everyone is focusing too much on the swim and not enough on his lack of performances in the heat. Just from memory (could be wrong), he has had some tough days on hot courses. Aren't most of his IM wins on cooler days?



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Re: Whats going to be Lionel's fate come next Saturday? [LSchmitt] [ In reply to ]
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Couple things I noticed in the video:

- he needs to stop breathing into every single wall.
- flip turns aren’t terrible but he’s doing more turning than he needs to before pushing off the wall.
- would like to see his hand enter the water a little closer to midline
- his backstroke sucks (but that’s to be expected)
- can we get him some bib shorts? Tri shorts are a no no. LG makes awesome bib shorts.
- sunglasses go over the helmet straps not under
- I think tilting the bars a few degrees up would benefit his position. But I don’t think you can with his current setup.
- his toe nails are distgusting :)

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Re: Whats going to be Lionel's fate come next Saturday? [CU427] [ In reply to ]
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We all have to wait and see. He could have total meltdown. I do think there's a very solid chance we see someone new win it this yr. Maybe a completely new top 3!
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Re: Whats going to be Lionel's fate come next Saturday? [Brandes] [ In reply to ]
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Brandes wrote:
What i found ironic is that around 5:30 in the video Lionel is riding his bike with earphones in both ears... yet he bitches about cycling safety while riding outside.

This is an irony that could be applied to a great many cyclists.
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Re: Whats going to be Lionel's fate come next Saturday? [jkhayc] [ In reply to ]
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Re: Whats going to be Lionel's fate come next Saturday? [mungub50] [ In reply to ]
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mungub50 wrote:
I don't see a top 5 this year but wouldn't mind being wrong. I think everyone is focusing too much on the swim and not enough on his lack of performances in the heat. Just from memory (could be wrong), he has had some tough days on hot courses. Aren't most of his IM wins on cooler days?

So are you saying you're not impressed with his 3:11 run at IM Texas in 2015?
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Re: Whats going to be Lionel's fate come next Saturday? [mungub50] [ In reply to ]
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This.

I wonder if he believes he has solved the fundamental sweatrate/dehydration issues that did him in at Woodlands 2015 and spooked him bad enough to ride with the camelbak that year at Kona. He did run a top 10 marathon that year.

Last year, he made more sensible aero choices with his hydration, but melted down on the run. Claimed it was a "lack of respect" for the distance in his training, but turned around and SMASHED IMAZ a few weeks later on a cool day.
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Re: Whats going to be Lionel's fate come next Saturday? [CU427] [ In reply to ]
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Is he still on 165 cranks?
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Re: Whats going to be Lionel's fate come next Saturday? [Joshuamsm] [ In reply to ]
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Joshuamsm wrote:
I dont understand why Kienle is the benchmark for Lionel swimming well, it's not as if Kienle is a great swimmer, he also has to ride super hard to get to the front

Because he himself said that was the benchmark he was using. So I was working my OP off his own words.
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Re: Whats going to be Lionel's fate come next Saturday? [stevej] [ In reply to ]
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All his bloody complaining about stopping every 15sec because of lights is such rubbish. Where is he riding, back and forth from the airport to Kuakini?? After the airport, there is literally one light and one stop sign till the turn around in Hawi...



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Re: Whats going to be Lionel's fate come next Saturday? [ErickBar] [ In reply to ]
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Re: Whats going to be Lionel's fate come next Saturday? [CU427] [ In reply to ]
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I am about to shoot Part II with Lionel. What questions do you guys want me to ask him.


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Re: Whats going to be Lionel's fate come next Saturday? [talbotcox] [ In reply to ]
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talbotcox wrote:
I am about to shoot Part II with Lionel. What questions do you guys want me to ask him.


Hey mate, ask him about his nutrition plan, he rarely shares anything relating to nutrition... Also does he do any strength & conditioning stuff... Thanks
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Re: Whats going to be Lionel's fate come next Saturday? [talbotcox] [ In reply to ]
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Who's given you the best race advice and what was it?

Besides a win is there some result you'd consider that would make this year a success?

How does anyone beat Daniela this year?

Strategically, if given the option would you change the order of disciplines in a tri?

Would you rather be tri's best swimmer, biker or runner?
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