Based on your half and 10k times, you certainly have a shot. The trick is to do it as it's own goal, and not as part of IM training. It doesnt mean that you put away the swim and he bike, but it does mean run will need to be primary.

It may take more than one cycle, but you have to ignore tri for a bit. I took 2 dedicated cycles to get my open marathon that low. (Spring goal was marathon, fall goal was HIM) During that time I was down to 1x swims per week, and bike commutes. Runs got all the quality workouts.

Of course you can do it but you need to put in a really good effort. 1.28 is great for a half, keep the volume up and do plenty of short intervals too.

Couldn't have said it better myself. Three years of marathon training (starting from primarily short-course tri), shooting for 3:05 at Dallas in three months. Swimming and trainer for cross-training, but never too hard, and increasing my run volume from "on" weeks being ~34 miles to ~52 miles. I did learn I can't be a pure runner - a few months of running volume with nothing else gave me a vicious nerve impingement in my left thigh.

Hoping to get back to tri next year, and seeing what my run times are now!

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The point is, ladies and gentleman, that speed, for lack of a better word, is good. Speed is right, Speed works. Speed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit.

if your 10K is 38 min then your 1:28 half marathon feels slow. This may indicate that you don't have enough mileage and that you may be a bit heavy and those extra pounds hurt more the longer you go. Can you share your height, weight and how many miles you ran each of the last 3 years and your average run week mileage when you are running (not your peak).

Absolutely, 27 years old, 6'1'', 150 lbs.

Run about 30k a week, 40k/week months leading into the race

38min is a pretty good 10k time, you can definitely run 3:05 marathon. If you run ~2.5x these ^^^^^^ run volumes for a cycle or two. Don't get injured building to it though.

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Dimond Bikes Superfan

Run more. Minimum for me has been 80km per week for a decent marathon. 40km per week is nowhere near enough. It is not even as far as the race!
Make sure you have some speed work. Make sure you are doing long runs of at least 2:30 and up to 3 hrs closer to the race. Put some race pace km into the long runs.
Do some shorter races in the build up. I like a half marathon within a couple of months of the marathon.

I did one of my fastest marathons off of ironman training. Did IM end of August then marathon mid October. Made sure I had plenty of running in IM training.


Good luck.

OK, you are light enough for your height to run a decent marathon, so really this looks like a case of not running enough volume. Low 2:5x is in reach one you build to 80-90K per week consistently. That should not be a huge problem.

Okay, so no specific plan other than more volume (80k/week ish), some speed work and long runs leading into the run?

Thansk again guys!

There's a reason fast runners are regularly doing 80-120 mile weeks. I dropped tri a few years ago in favor of just running and am to the point where 65 mile weeks (104k) are routine and no big deal. I'm working to push that much higher over the next year or so.

Seriously, you don't need a plan. You are already a 38 min 10K runner basically off a hobby jogging plan. The 80K per week plan is pretty dead simple. Daily 1 hour running Tue to Sat, Sun 2 hours. That's 7 hours per week at 12 kph or 84 kpw of running. Just build back up to that gradually and don't get injured and do it for 9 months. Do a 10K race every 6 weeks. Nothing else is needed. Then after 9 months, come back for the advanced plan for another year with some more hills, and track, and you're at 2:50.xx.

Dev

Here is my progression 3:37, 3:14, 3:05, 3:00:xx

The only plan I had was to run lots and build that volume up on consistent running ... over a year or two or three or more :)

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My marathon PR is "under three, high twos. I had a two hour and fifty-something."

Listen to Devasish et all.... run more.
Your mileage is not enough. Simple.

You should try to aim for atleast 70-80 km as a base to get sub 3:00.

You have excellent 10k and pretty decent half time. You lack mileage. Marathon run training begins at 50mi per week and addition of long runs that are proportioned correctly to your weekly mileage. Without that, I would say no chance.

That's really good to know. I'll work up the mileage over the winter and see where I'm at afterwards a few months out. I'm not quite as fast as you so 3:05 might be pushing it for this summer but I guess we'll see as I get closer!

Cheers,
Phil

If you can run a 38min 10k off modest run training you should be thinking of 2h59. Just add miles. Lots of steady or easy paced miles on the feet and you'll get there

Disagree. Mileage is not king when it comes to running a sub 3 marathon. You need mileage when you are running faster (sub 2:30) or when running is your only sport. Intensity is a better stimulus for improvement than duration or frequency for your goals. I am not saying mileage won't get you there - it probably will - I am saying that intensity will get you there faster with less risk of injury from running much more than your body is used to running. It doesn't have to be a lot of intensity, either - 1 workout with 10k pace work (80-90 mins of total running) and 1 workout inside your long run with some half marathon paced work inside (100 - 140 mins of total running) each week. You other run days can be easy mileage with striders or short, fast hill reps. Total volume doesn't need to exceed 40 MPW but you might hit 45 during peak weeks.

You should definitely continue to swim and ride, but those workouts should be lower intensity to support your endurance. You probably don't need more than 5-6 hours of swim/bike training during marathon training.

BTW, if 3:05 is your goal because it is your BQ time, you will need another minute or 2 under that to actually get into the race.

Most people above say that volume is the key. I agree. While some people can get great results on the 'run less/run faster' approach, the majority of those runners will have a great first half and a +10 minute positive split. I had that approach and barely squeaked in Boston, but my BQ race felt absolutely terrible...sub 7's through 20, then 8+ through the finish. Since then, I do volume builds and have much better races.

3:05 is the goal because it's the official BQ time cutoff, I don't know that I would go even if I qualified and got the spot so I'm indifferent to actually getting in. I would just like to at least hit the time requirement as a personal goal for the year to come.

Gives me something to do :).

I've run a ton of short distances, 5-15k, FAST. And I always crash hard at the end of the half/full marathon so I'm thinking it's definitely mileage I'm missing.

Cool!
Good luck with the training.

(BTW, if you've ever thought it would be fun to run Boston...you were right. It is an incredible race.)

Just as another input - you should fairly easily be able to run 3:05 faster of your current fitness, or atleast with some more volume (i ecco others who say put in more miles).

I ran an open two years ago off a running-winter of 50-60 km / week - my 10k at the time was around 38:1x. I ran a 3:07 in a quite hilly marathon - course (meaning around 500m/1500ft elevation gain).

Good luck!

3:05 on a fitting course should definitely be doable. Don't think I ever ran a 10k in <38min, I loosely used the McMillan Running marathon plan that comes with Strava Premium to run a relatively comfortable 2:55 back in March. I also did TrainerRoad workouts and swam to get ready for tri season, but just focused on running at first.

For Boston, you'll probably need around 3:02, but there's no reason why you can't beat that if you focus for a couple of months. Local races are helpful. I did a couple 15ks but will probably do 10ks next year as they should be easier to recover from (and to work on that < 38min:))

This is worth quoting since if your goal is Boston 2019, you're going to need faster than 3:05. His guess is 3:02, but I'd shoot for 3:00 just so if you miss your pacing you have some buffer. Historically you've needed 2-3 mins faster than your BQ time to make it in.