Vuelta Stage 7+8+9: Sunday ends at summit with 21% pitch

Aug 24, 17 19:20

Post #1 of 34 (3944 views)

On paper this stage does not look bad, but with the length and if you look at the final Cat 3 while not long, it is steep enough that someone can spring themself lose. I think overall the terrain of both Spain and Italy make these 2 grand tours a bit more interesting than leTour. There is just an endless set of rollers and mid cat climbs.

The entire day almost looks like a continuous stair step up to the 1000m elevation. Nothing killer, but a continous grind. I bet some GC guys lose time, but otherwise most lose nothing. Breakaway?

GC with our hometown boy Mike Woods sliding into the top 10!!!....hopefully Teejay's legs are not beaten up too bad from yesterday's crashes. If Chaves can gap Froome and grab a time bonus, then maybe red jersey for him?:

1.GBRFROOME Christopher21TEAM SKY22h 54' 38''
2.COLCHAVES RUBIO Johan Esteban41ORICA - SCOTT22h 54' 49''+ 00' 11''
3.IRLROCHE Nicolas36BMC RACING TEAM22h 54' 51''+ 00' 13''
4.USAVAN GARDEREN Tejay38BMC RACING TEAM22h 55' 08''+ 00' 30''
5.ITANIBALI Vincenzo151BAHRAIN - MERIDA22h 55' 14''+ 00' 36''
6.ESPDE LA CRUZ MELGAREJO David11QUICK - STEP FLOORS22h 55' 18''+ 00' 40''
7.ITAARU Fabio131ASTANA PRO TEAM22h 55' 27''+ 00' 49''
8.GBRYATES Adam48ORICA - SCOTT22h 55' 28''+ 00' 50''
9.CANWOODS Michael91CANNONDALE DRAPAC PROFESSIONAL CYCLING TEAM22h 55' 51''+ 01' 13''
10.GBRYATES Simon49ORICA - SCOTT22h 56' 04''+ 01' 26''
11.NEDKELDERMAN Wilco61TEAM SUNWEB22h 56' 06''+ 01' 28''
12.RUSZAKARIN Ilnur101TEAM KATUSHA ALPECIN22h 56' 18''+ 01' 40''
13.FRABARGUIL WARREN62TEAM SUNWEB22h 56' 21''+ 01' 43''
14.NEDOOMEN Sam69TEAM SUNWEB22h 56' 35''+ 01' 57''
15.AUSHAIG Jack43ORICA - SCOTT22h 56' 57''+ 02' 19''

To some degree, I think the guys targeting the podium might want to keep the powder dry on Stage 7 because on Stage 8, they have this to look forward to right near the end...short, but steep. Certainly Froome will show up with his 32 tooth so he can sit and spin....but will the other guys do that and have an option to spin or do they show up with a 25?:

Last edited by: devashish_paul: Aug 26, 17 19:07

Re: Vuelta Stage 7: Rollers and 3x Cat III [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Aug 24, 17 20:27

Post #2 of 34 (3922 views)

My guess is the breakaway gets it and someone in the top 10 loses big time.

The vuelta is always the most interesting tour of the year. Everyone's form is all over the place and so many riders are desperate for a win that it creates very interesting racing. No one peaks for the Vuelta (or at least it is incredibly rare). I really wish Porte was racing, I feel he and Froome deserved a real showdown.

Re: Vuelta Stage 7: Rollers and 3x Cat III [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Aug 24, 17 20:59

Post #3 of 34 (3915 views)

Hmm. The stage looks like it has the potential to be 190 km warmup followed by a 17 sprint to the finish for the GC guys. Another hard day for the Sky domestiques controlling the field until the break goes.

I am guessing the break is large tomorrow as well. Lots of the GC guys look like they have no chance at top 5, so teams will be more willing to turn loose the better domestiques in search of a stage win so they can salvage something from the race. The break maintains it coherence until 175-180 km, which is when the less picky climbers start trying to get away before the climb ala Steve Cummings.

A similar split to today will happen with the GC guys, but this time the finish is close enough that Froome rides and they put 15 seconds into the second tier GC guys. Of course the instigator will be Bert. My big prediction is that Woods makes the split, but still no stage win because someone from the break wins.

P.S. Nobody congratulated me for my nearly spot on prediction on Stage 6. I picked someone from Lotto or Bora and they went 1,2 and Froome doomed the break when he decided not to pull, so no GC shakeup.

Re: Vuelta Stage 7: Rollers and 3x Cat III [Ghost234] [ In reply to ]

Aug 25, 17 6:17

Post #4 of 34 (3845 views)

Ghost234 wrote:

My guess is the breakaway gets it and someone in the top 10 loses big time.

The vuelta is always the most interesting tour of the year. Everyone's form is all over the place and so many riders are desperate for a win that it creates very interesting racing. No one peaks for the Vuelta (or at least it is incredibly rare). I really wish Porte was racing, I feel he and Froome deserved a real showdown.

I think a combo of no one peaking, and the uncertain form, less stacked teams, no pure sprinter teams and finally Spains continuously lumpy profile (pretty well every stage has a variety of rollers and cat 3's) and you get incredible racing. Less stacked teams also helps. The TdF would do well to first go down to 8 man teams and second, go to more shorter stages that can be attacked from the start gun by undoped humans. It's not rocket science, whether you are a pro or a well trainied age grouper, you can hammer out a 2.5 to 3 hour ride close to full throttle with a lot of attacks. Extend this to 5+ hours and everyone has to tour the first 3 hours+.

Re: Vuelta Stage 7: Rollers and 3x Cat III [grumpier.mike] [ In reply to ]

Aug 25, 17 6:27

Post #5 of 34 (3838 views)

I am also curious when we will see some action from Zakarin, be it an attack or whatever, or is he still fried from the Giro? Saturday's 18% should suit him. Also it seems like Orica-Scott have the best cards to play. Reminds me of 2xSchleck+Sastre in leTour a few years ago. They also have Jack Haig in the top 15 who can help the 2xYate+Chavez GC cards.

After being shut out in the TdF, at least we have 3 Canadians in the Vuelta: Sven Tuft (Orica workhorse), Woods (Cannondale), Hugo Houle (AG2R).

Re: Vuelta Stage 7: Rollers and 3x Cat III [grumpier.mike] [ In reply to ]

Aug 25, 17 7:28

Post #6 of 34 (3813 views)

grumpier.mike wrote:

Hmm. The stage looks like it has the potential to be 190 km warmup followed by a 17 sprint to the finish for the GC guys. Another hard day for the Sky domestiques controlling the field until the break goes.

I am guessing the break is large tomorrow as well. Lots of the GC guys look like they have no chance at top 5, so teams will be more willing to turn loose the better domestiques in search of a stage win so they can salvage something from the race. The break maintains it coherence until 175-180 km, which is when the less picky climbers start trying to get away before the climb ala Steve Cummings.

A similar split to today will happen with the GC guys, but this time the finish is close enough that Froome rides and they put 15 seconds into the second tier GC guys. Of course the instigator will be Bert. My big prediction is that Woods makes the split, but still no stage win because someone from the break wins.

P.S. Nobody congratulated me for my nearly spot on prediction on Stage 6. I picked someone from Lotto or Bora and they went 1,2 and Froome doomed the break when he decided not to pull, so no GC shakeup.

50 K to go and breakaway has 7 minutes. It 'could' stick as there are 14 in it.

Last edited by: devashish_paul: Aug 25, 17 7:30

Re: Vuelta Stage 7: Rollers and 3x Cat III [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Aug 26, 17 5:32

Post #7 of 34 (3744 views)

Yesterday (stage 7) was one I thought that the length and rollers and wind and three cats 3's would result in some action but after lots of attacking on stage 6, it seems like all the GC guys were willing to play poker and watch each other and let the break get away.

Today stage 8 we have a real Cat 1 test near the end with the 18% grade section with a steep downhill to the end. Anyone know how technical?

Re: Vuelta Stage 7: Rollers and 3x Cat III [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Aug 26, 17 5:54

Post #8 of 34 (3724 views)

cycling.tv coverage has not started yet as they have not hit the first Cat 3 climb. Here are the people in the breakaway 5 min up according to the Vuelta website:

Jesus Hernandez (Trek-Segafredo), Julian Alaphilippe (Quick Step), Loic Vliegen (BMC), Nelson Oliveira (Movistar), Rafal Majka, Emanuel Buchmann, Christoph Pfingsten (Bora-Hansgrohe), Clément Chevrier (AG2R-La Mondiale), Brendan Canty (Cannondale-Drapac), Alberto Losada (Katusha-Alpecin), Daan Olivier (LottoNL-Jumbo), Przemyslaw Niemiec, Jan Polanc (UAE Team Emirates), Sergei Chernetski, Laurens De Vreese (Astana), Bart De Clercq, Maxime Monfort (Lotto-Soudal), Domen Novak (Bahrain-Merida), Serge Pauwels (Dimension Data), Guillaume Bonnafond (Cofidis) and Michel Kreder (Aqua Blue Sport) maintain an average speed of 47.1km/h after two hours of racing.

Re: Vuelta Stage 7+8: Ends with steep Cat 1 18% [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Aug 26, 17 10:01

Post #9 of 34 (3630 views)

Holy cow I just saw the 18% grade. I weep just thinking about having to finish off a ride by sprinting up such an incline.

Re: Vuelta Stage 7: Rollers and 3x Cat III [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Aug 26, 17 10:47

Post #10 of 34 (3616 views)

I think Contador's sickness is going to be a huge dent in this tour. Take away that, and he and Froome are so closely matched that this would have been an epic Vuelta.

"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." T.S. Elliot | Cycle2Tri.com
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Re: Vuelta Stage 7: Rollers and 3x Cat III [CPT Chaos] [ In reply to ]

Aug 26, 17 12:08

Post #11 of 34 (3591 views)

CPT Chaos wrote:

I think Contador's sickness is going to be a huge dent in this tour. Take away that, and he and Froome are so closely matched that this would have been an epic Vuelta.

The end of that stage was epic. This was another stage where you could have cut out the first 90K and just have a 100K stage. Contador was pretty awesome. I really don't get the rest of the GC guys NOT using the 32 tooth when Froome and Sky just use it and sit and spin. It seemed like Contador literally had to wait for the steepness to lessen so his gearing got into a decent enough crank torque range that he could wind it up again and close the gap to Froome. Meanwhile, Froome has enough gearing to keep things wound up regardless of whether it is 8% grade or 20% grade. When are the others guys in the GC going to realize that with 11 speed, the 32 is not taking anything away?

In any case, it was fun to watch. Bardet was totally cooked from LeTour, Barguil kicked off the squad by Sunweb, and the nice thing today was that Teejay hung with the second group.

For us here in Ottawa, this moment watching a former local track guy riding with Froome, Contador, Nibali and Chavez on his wheel was exciting:

Tomorrow is pretty flat, but with a short uphill finish. I assume Sky will want to keep breakaways in check so that the stage finish bonus seconds can go to the GC guys

Re: Vuelta Stage 7: Rollers and 3x Cat III [CPT Chaos] [ In reply to ]

Aug 26, 17 15:08

Post #12 of 34 (3534 views)

CPT Chaos wrote:

I think Contador's sickness is going to be a huge dent in this tour. Take away that, and he and Froome are so closely matched that this would have been an epic Vuelta.

Contador looked good today. Overall GC win is probably out of the question, but here's hoping he's able to put something magical together during the next two weeks.

"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.

Re: Vuelta Stage 7: Rollers and 3x Cat III [CPT Chaos] [ In reply to ]

Aug 26, 17 16:42

Post #13 of 34 (3511 views)

Contador is 2.5 minutes or so off of the podium. I think his best allies are Froome and VanGarderen. Froome and VanGarderen should out TT Contador, but Contador should be able to out TT many of the lightweight climbers in between. His TT's at the Dauphine and the Marseilles TT at the TdF were decent. Guys who can out TT him can be his allies, but guys who are purely climbers I don't think will want to work with him. Froome and VanGarderen can keep their buffer (and grow it) on Contador on the TT. I don't think that Contador can out climb Froome on any stage this year. So if Contador wants to be high on GC, then I think he needs to make friends with the guys who can TT. If he tries to gang up with the climbers on Froome, then he has team Sky working against him. If he works with Froome, he has Sky on his side....then after the TT he has to stab Sky in the back and try to ambush Froome going with the likes of Nibali, Orica and Aru. I think if he tries to work with the climbers before the TT, then Sky just keeps shutting things down.

Re: Vuelta Stage 7: Rollers and 3x Cat III [CPT Chaos] [ In reply to ]

Aug 26, 17 19:06

Post #14 of 34 (3471 views)

I'm adding Stage 9 to this thread. The number of actual endurance sports fans on this forum seems pretty low given the interaction on the FINA Worlds, IAAF Track Worlds and Vuelta threads....seems like the discussion on ditching a Shiv to buy a P6 is of greater interest (and that's fine if people care more about the hardware they can buy, vs the pros putting on a show that you can only watch)....but for those of you guys actually following sport, let's get on to Stage 9.

Stage 9 should be largely ho-hum until we get closer to the end. Then it will be a drag race to the foot of the short steep uphill to the finish

Final climb has a steep pitch early that builds to 21% and then eases off. Froome can just sit on the lightweights during this part and gradually reel them back when it flattens....or he can put the hammer down and keep riding away.

The cat 2 2/3 the way through should do not much other than separate the GC guys and some key helpers from the excess baggage.

\
Teams like Orica need to keep breakaways in check to hope for stage finish bonus seconds. Sky should not care. Trek should care and might want to keep breakaways in check so that Contador can try to bag some stage finish bonus seconds if he can stay up with everyone.

Re: Vuelta Stage 7: Rollers and 3x Cat III [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Aug 26, 17 19:41

Post #15 of 34 (3456 views)

Froomie is going to get gapped. He'll have an Edgar Winter to the foot of the climb, fall off a bit on the 21%, then recover, maybe lose a little ground. No prob. Tejay needs to stay close.

Woods!

Re: Vuelta Stage 7: Rollers and 3x Cat III [McNulty] [ In reply to ]

Aug 26, 17 19:47

Post #16 of 34 (3449 views)

Contador just never gives up. Easily the best rider to watch in Grand Tours.

Re: Vuelta Stage 7: Rollers and 3x Cat III [fulla] [ In reply to ]

Aug 26, 17 19:53

Post #17 of 34 (3445 views)

Totally agree with this. Next year is going to be missing something big

"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." T.S. Elliot | Cycle2Tri.com
Sponsors: SciCon | | Every Man Jack

Re: Vuelta Stage 7: Rollers and 3x Cat III [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Aug 26, 17 20:33

Post #18 of 34 (3426 views)

devashish_paul wrote:

Contador is 2.5 minutes or so off of the podium. I think his best allies are Froome and VanGarderen. Froome and VanGarderen should out TT Contador, but Contador should be able to out TT many of the lightweight climbers in between. His TT's at the Dauphine and the Marseilles TT at the TdF were decent. Guys who can out TT him can be his allies, but guys who are purely climbers I don't think will want to work with him. Froome and VanGarderen can keep their buffer (and grow it) on Contador on the TT. I don't think that Contador can out climb Froome on any stage this year. So if Contador wants to be high on GC, then I think he needs to make friends with the guys who can TT. If he tries to gang up with the climbers on Froome, then he has team Sky working against him. If he works with Froome, he has Sky on his side....then after the TT he has to stab Sky in the back and try to ambush Froome going with the likes of Nibali, Orica and Aru. I think if he tries to work with the climbers before the TT, then Sky just keeps shutting things down.

The funny thing is that if my memory is correct Contador's first pro win was the time trial at Tour of Poland, so when he is on form he is a pretty respectable TTer. Velonews had an article with him and Louis Leon Sanchez visiting the MIT windtunnel when he was a neopro. His drag was one of the lowest I have every seen reported.

Re: Vuelta Stage 7: Rollers and 3x Cat III [grumpier.mike] [ In reply to ]

Aug 26, 17 20:41

Post #19 of 34 (3422 views)

grumpier.mike wrote:

devashish_paul wrote:

Contador is 2.5 minutes or so off of the podium. I think his best allies are Froome and VanGarderen. Froome and VanGarderen should out TT Contador, but Contador should be able to out TT many of the lightweight climbers in between. His TT's at the Dauphine and the Marseilles TT at the TdF were decent. Guys who can out TT him can be his allies, but guys who are purely climbers I don't think will want to work with him. Froome and VanGarderen can keep their buffer (and grow it) on Contador on the TT. I don't think that Contador can out climb Froome on any stage this year. So if Contador wants to be high on GC, then I think he needs to make friends with the guys who can TT. If he tries to gang up with the climbers on Froome, then he has team Sky working against him. If he works with Froome, he has Sky on his side....then after the TT he has to stab Sky in the back and try to ambush Froome going with the likes of Nibali, Orica and Aru. I think if he tries to work with the climbers before the TT, then Sky just keeps shutting things down.

The funny thing is that if my memory is correct Contador's first pro win was the time trial at Tour of Poland, so when he is on form he is a pretty respectable TTer. Velonews had an article with him and Louis Leon Sanchez visiting the MIT windtunnel when he was a neopro. His drag was one of the lowest I have every seen reported.

2010 TdF winning position complete with the pistolero disc

Re: Vuelta Stage 7: Rollers and 3x Cat III [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Aug 27, 17 4:44

Post #20 of 34 (3348 views)

Seems AC has gotten away from his TT focus in recent years, as he has gotten further and further from the top of the podium in TTs (from my memory).

Today's stage looks like two different races, the long drag to pull bag the inevitable break, and then the Ardennes one day finish with a hill that will likely see possible separations, especially if certain teams can make the drag to pull the break really hard and tire the whole field out. Or maybe the whole field will be tired and the break will go with no real chase, and the GC guys will just match each other on the final hill... Hope for the former.

"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." T.S. Elliot | Cycle2Tri.com
Sponsors: SciCon | | Every Man Jack

Re: Vuelta Stage 7: Rollers and 3x Cat III [CPT Chaos] [ In reply to ]

Aug 27, 17 5:57

Post #21 of 34 (3328 views)

I don't know if there is a suitable road to ride down from today's finish, but if I got to design the course today, I would cut out the first 80K, start the stage at the 80K point and then go up the finishing climb, come down, loop back and then head right back up again.

In terms of Contador's TTing, I think it's just the blood passport in action. Take a light rider and give him the non blood passport "headroom" into additional wattage and with the same frontal he becomes a GC TT winner. It works the same way with big guys like Bjarne Riis. Give them the additional watts from the 60 percent program and they can climb with all the lightweights. I think today you are seeing a cleaner peloton. Big guys can't climb and light guys can't TT the way it should work with physics. Mid weight guys like Contador can't TT as well as the Tony Martin's and they normally can't climb against rested lightweights like Bardet and Quintana. Right now with everyone shredded from other grand tours and racing, Contador can keep up. It does not feel like any of the really sharp attacks like we see at the Giro, Paris Nice, Dauphine etc....would love to see Froome's power file from Mont du Chat at the Dauphine, the TdF and Izouard at the TdF and some of his files now to see if he is riding the same or any lower.

Accoring to Cameron Wurf who did some training with Froome this year, Froome is going full bore in training all year, but that might just be talk in an interview. It might feel like full bore to Wurf, but it might only be 90% for Froome

Re: Vuelta Stage 7: Rollers and 3x Cat III [CPT Chaos] [ In reply to ]

Aug 27, 17 6:13

Post #22 of 34 (3317 views)

With 100K to go the break has 2:30. Vuelta has this cool graphic they use for breakaway progress

Canondale pushing hard to keep the breakaway down. It sound like they want a stage win soon to pull in a new sponsor to try to save the team.

Re: Vuelta Stage 7: Rollers and 3x Cat III [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Aug 27, 17 6:50

Post #23 of 34 (3299 views)

Do you think it's absolute weight that matters for TTing vs. climbing or BMI?

I guess Contador is lighter than Bardet and Aru because they are taller. But because they are taller but still are climbers, their BMI is lower than contadors.

On the uphill it's pretty much power to weight that counts.
In a flat TT it's a bit more complicated because of lesser frontal drag of shorter guys vs. more absolute power of bigger guys. And then the absolute power is often an advantage.

I find that very interesting. I am more of a runners guy and prefer uphill riding. And when I get too close to Bardet/Aru weight I suffer on the flats in Duathlons because of not enough absolute power.

It is also interesting for me, how Wiggins could possibly lose so much weight for the Tour in 2012 and then still won Olympic TT gold.
I mean the weightloss was probably supported by TUEs. But was that also helpful in maintaining power?

In his book about 2012 he states how he was very careful about what he ate. Only fueling hard workouts for example and otherwise let the tank empty.

10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40

Re: Vuelta Stage 7: Rollers and 3x Cat III [CPT Chaos] [ In reply to ]

Aug 27, 17 7:06

Post #24 of 34 (3286 views)

CPT Chaos wrote:

Seems AC has gotten away from his TT focus in recent years, as he has gotten further and further from the top of the podium in TTs (from my memory).

I don't think it's a matter of focus. He's gotten further and further away from the top of all kinds of podiums. He no longer just drops everyone on climbs either.

The past couple of years he's mostly relied on tactics to get results, e.g. echelons, roll-the-dice risky attacks, etc.

Something changed right around 2012. He was never the same after the suspension. Still a hell of a good racer - won the Giro and Vuelta after that - but never the guy who could win both ITTs and summit finishes in the same TdF.

Re: Vuelta Stage 7: Rollers and 3x Cat III [trail] [ In reply to ]

Aug 27, 17 7:13

Post #25 of 34 (3281 views)

trail wrote:

CPT Chaos wrote:

Seems AC has gotten away from his TT focus in recent years, as he has gotten further and further from the top of the podium in TTs (from my memory).

I don't think it's a matter of focus. He's gotten further and further away from the top of all kinds of podiums. He no longer just drops everyone on climbs either.

The past couple of years he's mostly relied on tactics to get results, e.g. echelons, roll-the-dice risky attacks, etc.

Something changed right around 2012. He was never the same after the suspension. Still a hell of a good racer - won the Giro and Vuelta after that - but never the guy who could win both ITTs and summit finishes in the same TdF.

If he is not the same after the suspension, I think that is good thing. Would you guys agree?

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