14:56 is pretty strong for his first race back. Maybe he was holding back a bit? I would. ;)

-Robert

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"How wonderful it is that nobody need wait a single moment before starting to improve the world." ~Anne Frank

Very cool - yet another reason to watch (as if we needed more!). I assume that means he'll be doing Chicago as well.

Any idea about the Cape Town bike course? I assume wetsuit swim, which can only help. It sounds like he's been working hard - very interested to see how he does.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

Here's a link to the course: http://capetown.triathlon.org/...thletes/elite_course. No elevation data on there. A couple 180's, 90's and roundabouts to negotiate each of 8 laps. I'm guessing it won't be nearly as difficult as Auckland's bike, though adding in Alistair up front will likely make it more aggressive. No Tom Davison this time around to tow a lucky (and strong) few to the front. I'd expect Murray, Declan Wilson and Bryan Keane (maybe Mola depending on his swim) to be the ones leading the chase.

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Jason Pedersen
RunPd.com - Running as fast I can since '93
@jasonpedersen

I would have to look at kitzbuhel last year but interesting they are only at 62 men on start list. Very rare will an WTS event not fill out and have a wait list.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

Interesting. Lots of Spaniards, lots of Brits. I wondered if Frodeno might try to race there - didn't he grow up in the Stellenbosch area?

I can see Cape Town being less appealing from a logistics point of view. Not especially close to training bases in the US, Europe or Australia.

The US team is interesting - Lagerstrom and Lukas. While I don't fully understand the points deal, it seems like a nice opportunity to start earning points to try and get 3 guys to Rio.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

8 countries get 3 spots:

GB
Spain
Germany
Australia
France
Russia
Mexico

These 7 countries all have 3 athletes in top 40 of points standings.

I would then guess it's
South Africa/Portugal
USA
New Zealand
Italy

Those 12 countries will battle for the 8 spots. I really think there is only 2 spots up for grabs of the 8 as I think GB, Esp, France, Russia, Aus, Ger will have their spots secured pretty well. Maybe Ger can falter, but not likely.

RSA has better top athletes, USA has better middle pack of athletes.

If the US can win Pan Am games in 2015 (or may be early early 2016), we'll likely get the 3rd spot.

Just for reference, the US in last Olympics seemed to hold their hat that they had the Pan Am games win the bag with Kemper until he got crashed out by a kid doing an itu race that had no business being there (I argued Kemper had no business being in that CC but alas, it was what it was). I certainly think Kemper could have beaten Colucci for the spot, and the US almost still got Huerta to win (he lost in sprint finish).

I dont think the US is going to improve with any athletes in the top 20 in points. What we can hope for is Maloy, Shoemaker, Billington type of athletes to stay consistently in the 25-40 place in WTS races and score points that way (along with WC points) and then quietly jump into 8th spot on team standings. The issue always will be for the athletes that they point chase and get the US the achieved standing and then lose "their" position to an *undeserving* athlete in a qualifying championship setting. Kinda the issue that Chrabot had last Olympics, as he was the highest American on points, helped secure the spot for the US, only to be left on outside of Olympics. I would argue that athletes had 2 chances to secure their Olympic spot with how weak the Americans were in run up to 2012 Olympic qualifying, so the *unfairness* can only be argued to an degree.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

I don't know who it would be, but I sure hope the US gets someone in the top 20 this cycle. We're really early, right? Just races in 2014?

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

with the actual race dynamic, zafares should be able to do it.

I might be wrong but the qualification process is starting at Yokohama. That's why for a lot of athlete, this race who was added on the circuit lately wasn't so attractive.

Definitely should be front pack out of T1 at will. Hopefully with time he'll be able to consistently hang with the pack. Kanute seems like he has a pretty strong swim - not like Zafares, but maybe enough to make that front pack. I'd guess his bike is stronger at this point.

Curious to see what Chrabot does this cycle. He seemed on the verge last year.

Points starting to count in Yokohama would help explain the lower numbers for Cape Town. Can anyone confirm?

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

Olympic qualifying starts like sometime middle of may 2014-middle of may 2016 (not sure the exact dates). I think Yokohoma is the 1st event that begins the cycle. If they follow the 2012 Olympic Games, the US will likely have a late summer Olympic "trials" in 2015 and then spring 2016 (if the team hasn't already been decided, etc.).

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

Chicago sure seems like a natural place to do it in 2015. Not sure if being the Grand Final would work against it - hope not, as I'll definitely be there.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

Olympic qualification is May 15 2014-May 15 2016, making Yokohama the first eligible WTS race (May 17). Only WTS, World Cup, and Continental Championships can earn Olympic Qualification points. (during the lead up to the Olympics, the general "ITU Points" sort of take a back seat to the OQ points)

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Jason Pedersen
RunPd.com - Running as fast I can since '93
@jasonpedersen

I wish all nations could have 4 athletes each, with a base requirement or standard. Then in the Olympics you had two semi finals, top 25 in each semi plus the 10 fastest times (the numbers is just an example).

[quote No elevation data on there. A couple 180's, 90's and roundabouts to negotiate each of 8 laps. I'm guessing it won't be nearly as difficult as Auckland[/quote]
There is no elevation ;) Pancake flat along the beach, short section out of waterfront that will not matter. Very nice backdrop though. Will make an interesting race - happy I am there to race the event.

RSA has better top athletes, USA has better middle pack of athletes.//

Maybe i just need one more cup of coffee, but what the hell? We have better middle pack athletes? Is there some race in the middle that we score that i don't know about? I think what you are really saying is that RSA is dominant to the USA, after all it is the top spots that really get scored. Maybe RSA should train their top athletes less so they could be better middle pack athletes..(-;

I actually think his point was pretty clear. The US doesn't have a Murray type right now, but there's a slew of guys that will finish 20th-40th in WTS level races.

Not saying it's better than RSA which has a stud but not many dudes beyond that, it's just different. Obviously an ideal scenario would be to have that many guys capable of being top 10 on any given day, but unfortunately that's not the reality for USA men right now. We do have some pretty damn good women though.

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Twitter | Kancman | Blog

No I said exactly what I said and meant that. RSA's top athlete(s) are superior to ours on the points list. However the US has likely a deeper team that if they can start scoring well in wts races I think will be able to overcome that lack of top 6 athlete like they have with Murray. It certainly would help if Maloy, billington could race their way to a top 12 (well any American really, so would be fun to see ST's own Jason P up there).

Eta: if you think I'm trying to say we should get a prize because of bettter middle pack athletes, and that RSA should strive to be better middle of pack athletes, the point went over your head. So yes Monty, get another cup of coffee, high octane cup preferred.

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@brooksdoughtie
USAT-L2,Y&J; USAC-L2
http://www.aomultisport.com

Really? With both Browlees, Gomez and Varga I think Verzbicas could potentially be 1 mn 30 to 2 mins off that lead pack.

I'm really looking forward to Lukas racing - I remember when I first heard about his cycling crash, the possible permanent spinal injuries and the long road ahead for him.......it's fantastic and commendable he's even on the starting line.

On a different note, does anyone know what's going on with Alexander Bryukhankov since the Olympics......he's been in a number of races but not finishing near the top like before.....injuries, burnout? He was one of my favorite racers and I'd love to see him back in the mix.

Note: I just went to look at Aukland results and he did at least swim and run in the top 10.

Not Lukas - Tommy Zafares.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

Oh sorry, my mistake.

No worries - it would be interesting to see what Lukas could do if he was able to come into T2 with everyone.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

A couple of points:

1) Murray is not the only good RSA athlete. Henri Schoemann had an outstanding season last year, is consistently top 4 in the swim and bikes extremely well. Although he has been injured and didn't run well in Auckland, he is not a bad runner either. The other day, he raced Murray in Zimbabwe and exited the swim with a three minute lead!

2) It would be interesting to see how Lukas would do if he was in T2 with everyone else but there is a good reason why he won't be - namely that he cannot yet swim and bike well enough. And we don't know if he really flogs himself in the water and on the bike, whether he is still able to put in a great run as the Brownlees and Gomez seem able. Will be very interesting seeing how he shapes up in Cape Town because he hasn't raced again this calibre opposition since his accident so we'll see just where things stand, particularly with the swim.