Now that the Tour has started, but before any results are in, is the time where we can be overconfident about our picks. I mean explain why we picked who we did why did, but before the cold hard reality of the results begin to roll in and the lucky punk who picked a Fortuneo rider for 4 points comes out with a stage win and a stint in yellow.
I'll go first.
Valverde: Because this "mountainous but no MTF" course suits someone who can sprint from the GC group. And because maybe Quintana might not be 100% from the giro.
Bardet: Ditto. The downhill parts suit someone without fear and rewards someone willing to take risks
Aru: because Fuglsang will be roped into domestique duty once more.
Izagirre: At 10 points, seemed like a decent pick if the GC group stays conservative.
Kittel + Degenkolb: Together they cost roughly as much as Sagan, but with Cavendish sick, Griepel getting older and a bazillion sprint stages, this tour is for Kittel. I still think Sagan will win green, but to pick him means you also need to take a few of 4 pointers, and no one wants that. Choice was between (Kittel + Degs + Stybar) vs (Sagan + 2x 4 pointers). Seemed obvious.
Kung: Cheaper than Tony Martin, and for 6 points a smallish shot at yellow, and two decent stage results in the TTs.
Cummings: Good for a free stage win.
Stybar: How is he 6 points again?