My question really revolves around game-planning a race when the only "consistent" power files you have are on the trainer. I've only done sprints and oly's and looked at my power, but didn't' really have a firm target. It was a lot more feel. Now that I'm moving up to half distance this year, I'm starting to try to settle into my target numbers (10 weeks out and will probably try to test again 3 weeks out from the race). I see people saying they shoot for 75% FTP on a full course or maybe 80-85% for a half (again I realize this will vary and is a loose rule of thumb some may use). Are you all basing that off of say a 20 minute test on your trainer?
My power numbers aren't anything special. I should be testing around 200 right now on my trainer (been several weeks). Doing a 2x20 at ~180 is a tough workout (these numbers are depressing for me, haha). But then I go for an outdoor riding at 180-200W just doesn't seem very tough at all. My NP for a 3+ hour medium-effort ride is ~180, but there is a lot of stopping, slowing, etc.. I just don't have a lot of opportunity to get a long consistent ride to confirm that my outdoor FTP is in fact higher. But from RPE, I'd say I'm about 20-30 watts different.
Anyone dealing with limited outdoor data experiencing the same thing? I know my solution is to get a rough estimate, then base off feel to fine tune. But it's my first 70.3, and I just want to get a respectable bike and run in (at least respectable for myself). I don't want to blow up on the run or leave too much time on the bike if not necessary.