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The fastest overall swim at Kona might be an age group Woman
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Lucy Charles - 8:26 in800m long course - wow! She is going to mow down a lot of the age group men starting 15 minutes before her which ultimately might be why she doesn't outsplit Potts etc...
Last edited by: ajthomas: Oct 7, 15 10:32
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Re: The fastest overall swim at Kona might be an age group Woman [ajthomas] [ In reply to ]
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ajthomas wrote:
Lucy Charles - 8:26 in 800m long course - wow! She is going to mow down a lot of the age group men starting 15 minutes before her which ultimately might be why she doesn't out-split Potts etc...

Ya, I saw her times in the ST home page article; too bad it's not just one big mass start anymore:)


"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."
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Re: The fastest overall swim at Kona might be an age group Woman [ajthomas] [ In reply to ]
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FWIW - Andy Potts went 8:06 or faster in the 800 back in the day.

Bill Bishop will certainly be up there for the OA swim.
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Re: The fastest overall swim at Kona might be an age group Woman [ajthomas] [ In reply to ]
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Yes that is a fast 800m time for women but she is going to get caught up with the slower age group males. That will unfortunately slow her down some.

I say she is within 90 seconds of the fastest male swimmer (pro or AG).

blog
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Re: The fastest overall swim at Kona might be an age group Woman [sentania] [ In reply to ]
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sentania wrote:
FWIW - Andy Potts went 8:06 or faster in the 800 back in the day.
Bill Bishop will certainly be up there for the OA swim.

AP went 3:58.4 for the 400 and 15:38 in the 1500 at the '96 Trials. For comparison, here is the quote from Lucy in her ST interview:
Lucy: So anything from 800m upwards was considered a distance event in swimming. My fastest times were as follows:
800 meters 8:28.39
1,500 meters 16:15.10
5,000 meters 57:58.00
10,000 meters 2:06.57
In the 1500, AP was about 37 sec faster than Lucy when at his swimming peak in '96 but she is a lot closer to her swimming peak (2012) than he is. OTOH, if you take her 5000 m time and convert it to 3800 m at same speed, she'd be going around 44:03...so, we'll see:)


"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."
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Re: The fastest overall swim at Kona might be an age group Woman [ericmulk] [ In reply to ]
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Why she'll outsplit Potts:

1) she wants to and Andy doesn't care
2) She is close to as fast as him right now anyway

As long as she navigates the men well, I think she'll do it.
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Re: The fastest overall swim at Kona might be an age group Woman [ajthomas] [ In reply to ]
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"Age group woman" is accurate but slightly misleading. More like aspiring pro.
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Re: The fastest overall swim at Kona might be an age group Woman [ajthomas] [ In reply to ]
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ajthomas wrote:
Why she'll outsplit Potts:

1) she wants to and Andy doesn't care
2) She is close to as fast as him right now anyway

As long as she navigates the men well, I think she'll do it.


In wave starts, there is often a slip stream created by the slower swimmers from previous waves. The positive effect of this can offset the time lost having to get around slower swimners.

At Kona a very distinctive arrow shape formation occurs.
If she were able to get along one of the forward edges of the arrow- the draft/slingshot would probably make up for the extra distance and the occasional blocking swimmer.

I fear, however, that she will not be able to get around the back end of the arrowhead. Instead of swimming fast along the edge if the arrow, she will probably have to fight her way through.

The slower the swimmer- the more belligerent the behavior (especially at Kona).

She might be in for a very long and annoying swim.
Last edited by: dirtymangos: Oct 7, 15 13:51
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Re: The fastest overall swim at Kona might be an age group Woman [ajthomas] [ In reply to ]
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My pick would be for pro female Haley Chura. Just like she did in 2013.
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Re: The fastest overall swim at Kona might be an age group Woman [ajthomas] [ In reply to ]
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Can she bike and run?
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Re: The fastest overall swim at Kona might be an age group Woman [Naps a lot] [ In reply to ]
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Haley may not be racing. She was hit by a car recently and based on her description took a big gash out of her leg. She is in Kona and sounds like she will be a game time decision.
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Re: The fastest overall swim at Kona might be an age group Woman [Jason80134] [ In reply to ]
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Jason80134 wrote:
"Age group woman" is accurate but slightly misleading. More like aspiring pro.

Don't aspiring pros race as age groupers?






Take a short break from ST and read my blog:
http://tri-banter.blogspot.com/
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Re: The fastest overall swim at Kona might be an age group Woman [ajthomas] [ In reply to ]
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While her times are impressive, she didn't even have the fastest female swim at 70.3 Worlds, Lauren Brandon beat her and the lead male pro pack were :45 seconds ahead. So lets keep some perspective on this.

Im also pretty sure Lars still has the record at 46:20ish, with Potts and John Flanagan going sub 48. So a 44:00 might be a bit of a stretch for any AGer, John Flanagan was also an international level open water swimmer.
Last edited by: Craig P: Oct 7, 15 16:23
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Re: The fastest overall swim at Kona might be an age group Woman [ajthomas] [ In reply to ]
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If she was near this shape right now( Sounds like a couple years ago when she did the time?), I would say that she and the top 4 or 5 men would be within 5 seconds of a pool 800, going either way. But what she does not have is the ability to draft in a pack, which I presume Frodo will make sure happens, or one or two other uber swimmers. Once they get going, there will be some lead changes, and there is also the massive sprint for the first 500 or so to get clear. Im guessing Potts does what he did last year, sit on the leaders and sprint them at the end. That also makes for a fast swim, as there is no lollygaging up the steps, but pedal to the metal for the last 300 to 400 or so to get those lucrative swim primes.

What she will have going for her is clear water for a bit to get going, and she can just rock a perfect pace, and given that she is not in it for the overall, may just hammer like it is just a swim race. Her big problems are going to be that she lacks OW experience, so probably gives up some there, and she certainly lacks Kona swim experience, and the guys have that in spades.

If I were a betting man(I most certainly am) I would say she swims within 30 to 45 seconds of the lead male, with them having the faster time.I'm assuming that she has some OW experience and she is half way decent in it( i have no idea). If not, then she may be as much as 2 minutes behind. If she were to start with the pro men, she might have had a chance, but even then she would probably get mashed enough in the opening scrum, that she would miss the few man break that is likely to be off the front. But that was never an option, and swimming with the women pros would be the same as swimming with the AG'ers pretty much.

And who here said a 44 flat for her, back away from the pipe buddy.. (-;
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Re: The fastest overall swim at Kona might be an age group Woman [ajthomas] [ In reply to ]
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ajthomas wrote:
Lucy Charles - 8:26 in800m long course - wow! She is going to mow down a lot of the age group men starting 15 minutes before her which ultimately might be why she doesn't outsplit Potts etc...

If you don't win. Who cares what your splits are.
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Re: The fastest overall swim at Kona might be an age group Woman [B.McMaster] [ In reply to ]
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B.McMaster wrote:
ajthomas wrote:
Lucy Charles - 8:26 in800m long course - wow! She is going to mow down a lot of the age group men starting 15 minutes before her which ultimately might be why she doesn't outsplit Potts etc...


If you don't win. Who cares what your splits are.

bingo. Plus burning all your matches on the swim when you could just cruise the swim and then hop on the bike and benefit from slingshotting past all the AG men is a stupid strategy.
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Re: The fastest overall swim at Kona might be an age group Woman [B.McMaster] [ In reply to ]
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You appearantly do... Or did your web browser just open to this thread.
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Re: The fastest overall swim at Kona might be an age group Woman [Craig P] [ In reply to ]
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Craig P wrote:
While her times are impressive, she didn't even have the fastest female swim at 70.3 Worlds, Lauren Brandon beat her and the lead male pro pack were :45 seconds ahead. So lets keep some perspective on this.
er.

Apples and oranges. She had to swim around hundreds of men and women. Her 800 free time would have finaled at the Olympics. So With all due respect to Chura and Brandon she is at a different level. Only female (triathlete) I can think of who had close to her swimming pedigree was Eney Jones...
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Re: The fastest overall swim at Kona might be an age group Woman [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
If she was near this shape right now( Sounds like a couple years ago when she did the time?), I would say that she and the top 4 or 5 men would be within 5 seconds of a pool 800, going either way. But what she does not have is the ability to draft in a pack, which I presume Frodo will make sure happens, or one or two other uber swimmers. Once they get going, there will be some lead changes, and there is also the massive sprint for the first 500 or so to get clear. Im guessing Potts does what he did last year, sit on the leaders and sprint them at the end. That also makes for a fast swim, as there is no lollygaging up the steps, but pedal to the metal for the last 300 to 400 or so to get those lucrative swim primes.

What she will have going for her is clear water for a bit to get going, and she can just rock a perfect pace, and given that she is not in it for the overall, may just hammer like it is just a swim race. Her big problems are going to be that she lacks OW experience, so probably gives up some there, and she certainly lacks Kona swim experience, and the guys have that in spades.

If I were a betting man(I most certainly am) I would say she swims within 30 to 45 seconds of the lead male, with them having the faster time.I'm assuming that she has some OW experience and she is half way decent in it( i have no idea). If not, then she may be as much as 2 minutes behind. If she were to start with the pro men, she might have had a chance, but even then she would probably get mashed enough in the opening scrum, that she would miss the few man break that is likely to be off the front. But that was never an option, and swimming with the women pros would be the same as swimming with the AG'ers pretty much.

And who here said a 44 flat for her, back away from the pipe buddy.. (-;

Actually, Monty, if you took the time to read more carefully, you would have seen that my theoretical estimate of 44:03 was based off her best time in an actual 5000 m OW race. So yeah, she does have OW experience; in fact, she beat Keri-Anne Payne in the Great North Swim, and Payne was 4th in the 10K at the 2012 OG. So yes, she can swim pretty fast in OW which you would know if you simply read more carefully. Sure, my 44:03 estimate is based on when she was a pure swimmer but it is not a pipe dream but rather simply a best case estimate if she can slip-stream and pass the AG men who are in front of her.


"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."
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Re: The fastest overall swim at Kona might be an age group Woman [ajthomas] [ In reply to ]
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ajthomas wrote:
Craig P wrote:
While her times are impressive, she didn't even have the fastest female swim at 70.3 Worlds, Lauren Brandon beat her and the lead male pro pack were :45 seconds ahead. So lets keep some perspective on this.
er.


Apples and oranges. She had to swim around hundreds of men and women. Her 800 free time would have finaled at the Olympics. So With all due respect to Chura and Brandon she is at a different level. Only female (triathlete) I can think of who had close to her swimming pedigree was Eney Jones...


Have you forgotten Hayley Peirsol??? She was the 3rd American woman ever break 16 for 1500 lcm (15:57 at the 2006 Pan Pacs), then took up triathlon in 2008-10 and was ITU's Rookie of the Year in 2009. In her first ITU race in Austin, TX, May 2009, she was first out of the water in 17:00 with a 1:06 lead over the 2nd fastest swimmer. She ended up 2nd overall in 1:56:49.

http://www.triathlon.org/...29104/hayley_peirsol


"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."
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Re: The fastest overall swim at Kona might be an age group Woman [ericmulk] [ In reply to ]
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You beat me to it.

And we all remember how that experiment ended....
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Re: The fastest overall swim at Kona might be an age group Woman [Salmon Steve] [ In reply to ]
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Salmon Steve wrote:
You beat me to it. And we all remember how that experiment ended....

Ya, apparently Hayley had a number of DNFs but still, she was AFAIK the fastest female swimmer ever to give tri a go. I did not realize she had over a minute's lead out of the water in that first race, where she finished 2nd OA. That might've been her peak tri moment right there.


"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."
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Re: The fastest overall swim at Kona might be an age group Woman [ericmulk] [ In reply to ]
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ericmulk wrote:
That might've been her peak tri moment right there.

No - that was meeting me :) She lived with my wife for a season (I think 2009).
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Re: The fastest overall swim at Kona might be an age group Woman [Salmon Steve] [ In reply to ]
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Salmon Steve wrote:
ericmulk wrote:
That might've been her peak tri moment right there.

No - that was meeting me :) She lived with my wife for a season (I think 2009).

Well, how about that!!! So, can you fill us in on why she gave up on tri??? Was it bike handling, random bike crashes, or running, or??? You can PM me if you prefer. Always cool to hear the inside story:)


"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."
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Re: The fastest overall swim at Kona might be an age group Woman [ericmulk] [ In reply to ]
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Or perhaps it was just living with my wife....that has seen me give up a lot ;)

Honestly I don't know. I do know her swimming was phenom, but it must have gotten frustrating for Haley putting those sorts of time into the FOP swimmers just to be caught and passed on the bike / run. Siri's goal was to develop her bike that year but it never seemed to happen to the extent that she could capitalise on the swim, I think it was Kitzbuhel she had a handy lead and stacked it in the rain.


Knowing what I know about athletes who come from a HP swimming background - they've usually been immersed in the culture and concomitant 24/7 commitment....at some point they just want a life. Can't blame her really.
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