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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [tcurtains] [ In reply to ]
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Are there pics of LA's bike anywhere, the one he'll ride tomorrow? Did not see in ironman.com


Damn, that's a cold ass honkey.
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [Grant.Reuter] [ In reply to ]
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Thanks Kenney, I just haven't set my profile up yet, I lack computer skills to such a degree that I may need Rappstar's help to do it...

I just had another thought, which are getting out of hand I realize...

Of the three sports that make up a triathlon, I believe cycling is the one of the three where the top tri-bikers are closer to a pro cyclist, than a good tri-swimmer or runner would be in those sports respectively. The body composition of a biker isn't way different from a triathlete and the transition is made fairly easily if you have the talent/skills. We've seen this a lot more on the women's side, Kristen Armstrong and Karin Thurig sp? come to mind, US Olympic silver medal cyclist Mari Holden was Junior triathlete of the year before switching to cycling, Larsen went back and forth some later in his career... We don't see this in running/swimming with triathlon, maybe it's because of drafting, but more-so I think it's because the physicality of a triathlete isn't extremely different from a cyclist if you know how to do it. Maybe people can think of more people where this applies, or maybe I'm just wrong (like I was about GB!)

I look at guys like Andy Yoder and maybe now Matt Russell (different thread) and think maybe they could make a transition and be top bike riders..


(I posted this before, I made a couple mistakes I couldn't stand not correcting. Must proof read)
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [Grant.Reuter] [ In reply to ]
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Grant.Reuter wrote:
3Aims wrote:
It's interesting that people's estimated times have gotten faster over the last few days. From 4:05-4:15 originally, to 4:00:4:07, to sub 4:00 now. Call me crazy, but I don't think his run with be that good relative to the other pros. Unless his bike is off the charts, I still see a 4:07-4:12 type time.


Time guessing is pretty dumb when there hasn't been a race there before. If this was the second year it would make more sense but we have no idea how hard the course really is.

I actually spent a fair amount of time with the company that is putting on the race when I was doing Miami 70.3. They pegged it at a low 3:50s course. Easy swim, moderate bike, moderate/easy run. We'll see.
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [dubyakay] [ In reply to ]
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Hmm. Maybe somewhere on Slowtwitch? Hint... check out the thread you are posting on..... ;)
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [sdmike] [ In reply to ]
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Chris
Lieto
Matty
Reed
Paul
Amey
Rasmus
Henning
Richie
Cunningham
Bert
Jammaer
Jesse
Thomas
Balazs
Csoke
Oscar
Galindez
Bertrand
Billard
Andres
Darricau
Romain
Guillame
Greg
Close
Ezequiel
Morales
TJ
Tollakson
Bevan
Docherty
Kevin
Taddonio
Damon
Barnett
Guilherme
Manocchio
Andrey
Lyatskiy
Teemu
Kyllonen
Santiago
Ascenco
Ivan
Vasilyev



Out of all these my prediction of the top 4 in no particular order

Lance
Matty Reed
Lieto
Rasmus Henning
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [cyclops] [ In reply to ]
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Oh were getting serious now.

I'll go with

1) Henning
2) Lieto
3) Docherty
4) Cunningham
5) Reed
6) Armstong


Whoops missed Docherty
Last edited by: Grant.Reuter: Feb 11, 12 20:46
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [Grant.Reuter] [ In reply to ]
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Based on the fact that in either 2010 or 2011 Lance got 3rd place in the tour de france, first year back after cancer. I conclude the following.

3rd place in the tour = 1st in HIM = 3rd in regular IM = 20th in Kona
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [cyclops] [ In reply to ]
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If he gets first, he'll have the 1/2 marathon run of his life.
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [Grant.Reuter] [ In reply to ]
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whats his stand alone half? 1:22?
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [dubyakay] [ In reply to ]
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Check out his twitter
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [cyclops] [ In reply to ]
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cyclops wrote:
Based on the fact that in either 2010 or 2011 Lance got 3rd place in the tour de france, first year back after cancer. I conclude the following.



There are many things wrong here:

- returned to cycling from cancer in 1998
- got third in the 2009 TDF
- didn't finish in the top 15 in 2010
- didn't race in 2011

he is not exactly one year removed from a 3rd place TDF shape, but I'd bet he is very fit.
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [cyclops] [ In reply to ]
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There is no way he is even top 10, you people are lost in lance fanboy land. Take a good hard look at that list of serious athletes who have gone the distance and proven their worth, lance is lance, but this is not Xterra. Sure top 20 is doable, but closer to 20th is more reasonable.
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [-Mike-] [ In reply to ]
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-Mike- wrote:
There is no way he is even top 10, you people are lost in lance fanboy land. Take a good hard look at that list of serious athletes who have gone the distance and proven their worth, lance is lance, but this is not Xterra. Sure top 20 is doable, but closer to 20th is more reasonable.


20th? Really?

Boulder 20th Place -> 4:27
California 70.3 (2010) 20th place -> 4:20
Florida 70.3 20th place -> 4:26
Kansas 70.3 20th place --> 4:15

Lance can probably swim a 24, and easily bike under 2:05 depending on the course. Even at 2:10 for the bike and a 24 min swim that gives him over 1:40-1:50 to jog to top 20 at other these other races. Unless he nukes himself on the bike, All he has to do is run a 1:30 off the bike to be looking at a sub 4:10 which wont be putting him anywhere near 20th in the majority of 70.3s. Its not fanboy land its simple math.
Last edited by: Grant.Reuter: Feb 11, 12 23:39
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [-Mike-] [ In reply to ]
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Apparently Lance "Fanboy Land" has more sense than the "Fantasy Land" you're living in.
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [dubyakay] [ In reply to ]
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [SpeedRacer1] [ In reply to ]
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SpeedRacer1 wrote:

Lance has probably spent more time in the tunnel getting this one bike set up than the top 5 pros, in the race tomorrow, combined.
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [Grant.Reuter] [ In reply to ]
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I bet you're right. ;-)
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [SpeedRacer1] [ In reply to ]
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SpeedRacer1 wrote:

Question, After all the years riding UCI legal position does it look like that still is or has the saddle been pushed forward to a more 'triathlon' position?
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [chunkytfg] [ In reply to ]
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The saddle is forward. He moved from a medium to a large and is on 170 cranks now.

http://www.slowtwitch.com/...s_Tri_Bike_2568.html
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [sdmike] [ In reply to ]
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Fair enough. I was duped by the photoshop double-derailleur illegal UCI bike. At least I didn't start another thread.




Damn, that's a cold ass honkey.
Last edited by: dubyakay: Feb 12, 12 1:43
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [Grant.Reuter] [ In reply to ]
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Grant.Reuter wrote:
The saddle is forward. He moved from a medium to a large and is on 170 cranks now.

http://www.slowtwitch.com/...s_Tri_Bike_2568.html

Cheers
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [Salmon Steve] [ In reply to ]
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I thought people on this board had the best interests for triathlon.


You must be new here. :)
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [LewisElliot] [ In reply to ]
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Lewis - I've heard Bennett is signed up for IM Melbourne (March 25). Lots of talent at that race. I think Pete Jacobs is doing it along with a couple of other top guys from down there.

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [Grant.Reuter] [ In reply to ]
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Second off the bike behind Lieto. Nice.

Too funny on the swim. The guys putting on this race told me in Miami that this swim would be extremely fast due to the current. I've never seen a 18:00xx HIM swim before. Ha!!
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [3Aims] [ In reply to ]
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