sub 4...just cuz 4 seems long for him...

Just back from a run...fun thread...I love to look critically at athletes and wonder what they would do elsewhere...

Lewis, excellent posts...I love the personal experiences...I'm curious as to what role you would see a rider like Chris Lieto playing at a large pro-tour? No one races without a specific job...Would he be a GC guy or a mule? would he be a Jens Voigt? Big George? or a nameless bottle carrier (who can still peg 450 for a long time.)? The point is, last place at the Tour isn't the "worst " guy there...it's just a really strong rider who did his job and managed to get to Paris under the time limits...I'm not sure how many times Cipollini dropped out of the Tour, but it wasn't 'cuz he was not hellaciously fast, he just did his job and then went to the beach...he was definitely still a "star" of the Tour...

How's Lance gonna do at tris? Who knows? I suspect it will be a little anti-climactic...He will likely be a very competitive, just slightly past prime long distance triathlete...I think Lewis is right in that his access to resources will likely give him a huge advantage.

and I think LA racing Ironmans will be great for triathlon as a whole...with one caveat...This is going to further obscure the Oly style of racing...One of the most telling lines in Andrew Messick's ST interview was "...and of course, all roads in triathlon lead to Kona." The more LA has the spotlight on him (and WTC) the less focus (and money) will be there for the Maloys and Shivers of the sport...Hopefully, the entire pie grows and everyone gets a slice.

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Post #122 of 177 and no response on this. That's a shame, I get the point of the whole Lance hype, I'm glad for it but c'mon people Bevan Docherty deserve a bit more mention. I'm excited to see him go as well.

Ian

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Ian Murray
http://www.TriathlonTrainingSeries.com
I like the pursuit of mastery
Twitter - @TriCoachIan

No doubt. That vid of him running down Gemmell at Plymouth is crazy.

That vid is like 6 years old and still one of the most motivating videos for a triathlete on the entire internet!

Lieto and Armstrong have shown they can race in the heat.

examples? The run is where heat kills and my impression has been the opposite for these two. Lieto runs better in 70.3's but watching him run/walk at Kona is painful. Lance, I've only seen him run in marathons and a tiny bit of xterra and that also looked like he was hurting.

Yes, but this is shorter race and, well, he had no chance at Kona against Alexander and Raelert on the run, IMHO. Also, didn't he pretty much fall apart half way through? I don't think the heat did him in. The wicked bike split might have something to do with it. What, 4:18 or 20? Sheezh....(Of course, Alexander had a phenomenal PB on the bike then ran 2:44. Ouchee', check for Planet Orc passport there....) Lance has trained in that Texas heat and humidity and has raced many many times when the temps went North of 40 C. He was definitely NOT in his best shape for XTerra. He almost did it on a whim. I do think the heat will affect the times if the bike pace is absolutely breathtaking and the heat is UP come the run. Lieto is a also a bit bigger than Lance, so advantage to Lance on the run, I'd guess. If Lance could just put down a sub-1:20 in the run I think he will have at least a podium finish. My crystal ball is in the shop getting the horizontal hold fixed, so I'm a bit fuzzy.

Also, Lance and Lieto are both going to be coming out of the water within 1 minute of each other, so I expect that to be one helluva bike race! Wish I were there to see it. I hope WTC gets loads of film.

Given the Lance/Lieto war on the bike, I would not be surprised to see someone fly under the radar, particularly if they are a 2:44 speed marathoner.

Who could that be? Anybody have any dark horses. Jalabert? ;)

-Robert

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"How wonderful it is that nobody need wait a single moment before starting to improve the world." ~Anne Frank

LOL. so glad we can finally put the Armstrong/Jalabert question to rest.

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
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Lieto and Armstrong are thick as thieves already!


http://ironman.com/...letes.#axzz1m0mZUSFV

that's a good point ... does anyone know Bevan thinks of Lance doing ironman ?

Great post Lewis, nice to hear first hand positive stuff not speculation and hatin'. Lance will only have a positive impact on the sport and bring in a wider audience. Everyone wins!

Bevan isn't a dark horse, but he sure is a horse. ;) I wouldn't be surprised if he won it on the run after Lieto and Lance's Duel in the Sun. But, does he have enough long course experience?

-Robert

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"How wonderful it is that nobody need wait a single moment before starting to improve the world." ~Anne Frank

Hmmm.... Sad that I can't read that line and not feel the urge to quote it for posterity...

Brad

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3SIXTY5cycling.com

Id like to see him win ... such a great competitor

I don't think 70.3 is long enough long course for it to matter. If we were talking about age groupers then I'd agree you'd need some experience. But these guys are training just as much as oly guys so I'm not seeing that being much of an issue. As long as he did a couple bricks to check nutrition I doubt he will have any issues.

Timothy Leary

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Styrrell

You are very economical with your use of text.

5k was awesome, Bryan Dunn is an animal...

I'll respond to the posts about Docherty (I don't know him at all), Lieto and Lance in the heat, and what Lieto "could" be as a cyclist....

Docherty- Sick talent, old school work ethic, has stood the test of time, is a legend... Some guys, pure ITU guys, don't make an easy transition to the 70.3's. On paper, a Whitfield/Bennett type would DESTROY a 70.3, yet the couple they've tried haven't gone as well as you might think. I'm not saying they couldn't be top, they just haven't won, as I'm pretty sure they've both tried a couple. I think it would take a little more time for them to make the transition. Reed/Potts/Andreas or Michael R.... Yeah, not winning the biggest ITU's but they made the switch and showed huge success right away... Alexander, I don't think he was a top ITU guy at all, he just worked his way through all distances (except IM) and through years of work became the best, Crowie always did have a pretty strong run though... That guy may be the biggest testament to hard work in triathlon today. He was never the best, it was always Macca or Waldo. One day he just started winning though, and hasn't stopped. Crowie improved his bike, which allowed him to win the Lifetime series races, and recently has improved his bike again, which is allowing him to seriously dominate Ironman. I think for him his own success allowed him the resources that he needed to finally get some help in the tunnel and some good cycling coaches, and he's just run with it. He also excells in the heat. Back to the original subject, nobody in the US really knows who Docherty is anyway, of course the focus is on Lance, and maybe Docherty is the next Michael Raelart, maybe not, he certainly could be. He's older too... We'll know a lot more Sunday after the race. Just MHO remember...

Lieto n Lance- Neither are excellent in the heat, although Lieto being second in Kona def. doesn't SUCK in the heat, I just don't see him as a guy that picks hot races and dominates them. Lance as a cyclist didn't like the heat, he always had his huge results in the rainy cold conditions when everybody else was dropping out. World's '93, the "Madone" stage of the Tour, he loved rain and to take it to guys in bad weather. He too, like Lieto CAN ride in the heat, but it's not like their favorite thing a-la Indurain or Crowie. Lieto and Lance at race weight (Lance cycling, Chris triathloning) are almost exactly the same size, and Lieto is a little taller. I think Lieto told me once he races at 160, Lance's Tour weight was 158 I believe, I bet Lance is maybe 170 now... HUGE guess there though. Oh, and I was not insinuating anything there about factors going into Lance's improved TT-ing post cancer. I was referring to the fact that he seemed to genuinely develp an ability to "listen" to experts rather than just do it his way. Probably sitting there with no hair and two big scars on your head having some brainiac doctor tell you what he's going to do to keep you alive, and successfully do it, gave him the ability to trust outsiders and apply it to his cycling. He really did work on positioning, nutrition, body weight, cadence, all the things that he just winged and muscled before. That's all I meant.

Lieto as a cyclist- I thought of this today during the 5k. After drug trouble in triathlon in '98 Spencer Smith signed for a Pro Tour team called Linda McCartney and raced the season as a cyclist. Remember 1998, the Festina scandal, this was a tough time to compete in cycling... He did well, finished mid-pack in most races including Classics like Milan-San Remo. He was a great triathlon cyclist, not Lieto, but pretty great. Guys I knew on USPS at the time said they were not impressed by his riding at all, he certainly wasn't a champion cyclist like he was a triathlete but he did hang in there and get better. At the end of the year, once his doping problems were resolved, I think he went to Kona and got 5th or something, which was pretty cool. Lieto is a better rider than Spencer was IMO, so he would do better than that. GC guy? Now? It's too late, but yes, that's what he would have been. Probably not LA, but somewhere on some Pro Tour Team. A domestique? He's big enough, punches a good hole in the wind for guys to follow (domestiques are rarely smaller than 5'10). Yes, he could be a super-domestique... All I'm saying about him, and having talked to a lot of people about it, he's definitely the one triathlete who could make it over there. Steve Larsen, well yeah, but he was a top biker before.

You guys are awesome, I'm not trying to be a know it all, I'm writing a book right now and enjoying writing so I thought I would chime in on something I know a little about. We all can't wait to watch the race on IM Live tomorrow.

You do know Greg Bennet has won a 70.3, right?

Did he win Augusta? I made a mistake, perhaps he did. I know the guy can win pretty much anything he puts his mind to. He hasn't raced 70.3 worlds I don't think, and I wouldn't either if I could go win 200k or whatever at Hy-Vee. Perhaps he's not the type I'm referring to, not all the best ITU guys are the best at 70.3's though.

I heard Bennett was interested in taking on IM last year, we would all enjoy seeing that...

It's interesting that people's estimated times have gotten faster over the last few days. From 4:05-4:15 originally, to 4:00:4:07, to sub 4:00 now. Call me crazy, but I don't think his run with be that good relative to the other pros. Unless his bike is off the charts, I still see a 4:07-4:12 type time.

Lewis, I clicked on your user name, nothing listed....................................What, no love for Billings?. I will be running with Renne' Coppock tomorrow and should see Dave. Will tell them I saw your posts and you are doing well......All us old folks here are cheerin you on dude.....Good luck at the races!!

Spencer Smith...hadn't though about that dude in a while...I recall getting absolutely mauled on the bike by him at Du Worlds in like '95 or '96.he was a beast.

Time guessing is pretty dumb when there hasn't been a race there before. If this was the second year it would make more sense but we have no idea how hard the course really is.