That is absurd.

Thanks for making it worth reading through all those pointless posts. Good stuff.

x20. Wish LewisElliot would post a lot more often!

I know it wasn't your point but it was the point of many others in this thread and others like it. I don't think a lot of people understand just how much better professional cyclists (let alone someone in Armstrong's stratosphere) are than professional triathletes on the bike. I know Lance has to hold back something so he can run but his 85% is better than Chris' 85% or however you want to look at it.

---

Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

It's absurd to say the only guy who won seven consecutive TdF is arguably the greatest cyclist ever??? I didn't say he was the greatest, I said he was arguably the greatest. He's on the very, very short list. My point was Lance is about a million notches higher than Lieto on the greatest cyclist list.

---

Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Not sure if this has been brought up. (I only have a 2 page ST attention span)... Has anyone looked at the temps for Panama city tomorrow? 28 at the start. 45 at noon. This could have a major impact on the finishing times. Extra T1 and T2 time to cover up, not to mention the misery. There could be some DNFs. God forbid some of these pros get uncomfortable (some). This is going to be awesome!!

I'm guessing that in celcius that you posted up but either way. Why would they be covering up? That seems like a normal summer race temp around here.

Weather.com has 76F at the start and 89F at 11 when they are finishing.

We chatted with George Hincapie and he had some thoughts on Lance racing in Panama.

http://www.youtube.com/...ed&v=J5K7RZh3CG8

Pus Hincapie now sponsors quite a few triathletes.

Great post!
Many thanks.

-Robert

---

"How wonderful it is that nobody need wait a single moment before starting to improve the world." ~Anne Frank

Only became interested in cycling in late 90's. But if you don't consider LA on the short list of greatest cyclist then who do you put on the list? Just curious.

As I mentioned above I only been watching cycling a little over 20 years but in that time LA has been clearly the most dominate cyclist. Also he is easily the best known cyclist worldwide by a large margin. It is always open for interpretation on who you define the "greatest". Like him, hate him, you can not argue with a couple of things:

1) The best known cyclist of all time. This is worldwide as a % of population name recognition. There is no other cyclist that would come close. In America if you asked 10 people to name a famous cyclist 9 out of the ten would only be able to name LA. I understand it would be very different in Spain/France/Australia and other places. But travel even to a country like China. He had incredible name recognition and there is not other cyclist that would be anywhere close. In a country like France I would guess LA would have as much name recognition as Voeckler.


2) Had an impact on the sport. LA has easily had the most impact on cycling in history
3) Performance. I don't know how to compare. Won 7 straight. Only one to do it. In 1 and 2 LA is so far ahead it is an easy comparison.


4) What else? Consistency? Longevity? Persistence? Think Lance would do pretty well in these categories. Ambassador for the sport? Coming back? Overcoming adversity? Sportsmanship?

Your Mic is to high.

Humidity will be a huge factor also. Finishing a hard, competitive run in fairly high heat and humidity will 'thin the herd'. Lieto and Armstrong have shown they can race in the heat.

-Robert

---

"How wonderful it is that nobody need wait a single moment before starting to improve the world." ~Anne Frank

Look up Eddy Merckx or Bernard Hinault - their palmares run rings around Armstrong. Lemond had a much more profound effect on cycling in the US than Armstrong. He was the FIRST to WIN at the highest levels in Europe and blazed the trail on how to do it. He popularized the modern time trial bike in the pro peloton. I would even go as far to say that LeMond in his prime was better than Armstrong. He had to overcome the greatest French rider ever on his own team to win his first tour. Hinault was RUTHLESS. Much more difficult than a basket case Jan Ullrich. All of the greats would have had a difficult time with Miguel Indurain - best time trialist ever. Plus, he set such a high tempo the climbs that it was next to impossible to take much time out of him. Armstrong is the best rider of the 2000's. However, to say he is better than Merckx, Hinault, Indurain, etc is blatant homerism.

So what you're saying is....

"I got a text from a good friend tonight asking if he could go top-5. Yeah, I think so. I think top-3 if he runs well. Times don't really matter in the grand scheme of things so I'm not getting wrapped up in the times. I think that Bevan is the unknown, and in my opinion a favorite. Chris maybe...especially with the rumors of a 'fast' current aided swim...but I think that Lance swims better, rides better, and probably runs equal. That one will be a question of triathlon experience. Rasmus as well depending on which Rasmus shows up and depending on what 50 hours of travel do. Matt Reed, same as Rasmus without the travel. Richie clearly is very experienced and races well and crafty."

Good insight, thanks for the post and if you'll be a 'regular' welcome! :)

---

Brandon Marsh - Website | @BrandonMarshTX | RokaSports | 1stEndurance | ATC Bikeshop |

There is Merckx, then there is everyone else. There is no argument.

---

----------------------------------
"Go yell at an M&M"

I believe a lot of people are being overzealous. Does anyone know how much time Lance has been training, especially on the bike? Dont think he is even close to TDF shape. Plus, when he raced tri's they were always Olympic dist or shorter. I think he will be conservative on the bike but will lose a lot of time the last five miles of the run. Wont guess a time but will guess he will come in around 8th place which would be great all things considered, also considering the strength of the field.

you guys are funny most of you say that you dont like LA yet you cant stop posting about him. Who cares who was the best the thread is about what time you think he will get not how good he was. There are plenty of threads about that

he doesn't need to be in TDF shape on the bike 80 percent of TDF shape is better than almost all the pro triathletes on the bike right now. He came in second off the bike at xterra worlds AFTER wrecking himself hard enough to get a concussion. He also just swam a 5:07 500, if he can swim that he'll be up with everyone that matters on pretty much any swim besides an ITU race and especially in a 70.3. I don't know if he'll be able to run with the top guys for the whole time. But him being first off the bike wouldn't be surprising in the least.

Yep. Went and looked at my weather.com and it was florida. Read twice post once I suppose. Don't know it automatically went to that. I just assumed.

Okay, it's the time prediction thread. I already predicted a fast time (several pages back), but I'm going to go out on a limb and put Amey, Lieto and Cunningham in 1st, 2nd, 3rd. So, now that's done...
1. Best known cyclist of all time - this is a function of whether you're into cycling, and when you lived. Recent champs will always be better known that past masters. In his time, Merckx was a rock star cyclist (and is still a legend). In other countries, homegrown heroes have much higher stature than they do here, so best known where? And LeMond was/is famous. Armstrong has broken the US mainstream better, and if that's your benchmark then sure, he's the best known.
2. Most impact on cycling: Armstrong doesn't make this list, IMO. Sure, he won the TdF 7 times, but Merckx had way more influence on the sport. So did LeMond. Indurain won the TdF 5 times in a row, and made an impact at the olympics, as well as winning other major stage races (which Armstrong did not). Chris Boardman had a major impact on cycling too, both track and road. Boardman, Merckx and Indurain have all held the World Hour Record. Boardman still does. Pantani was a joy to watch climbing, and despite widespread allegations of doping (just like some other cyclist we like to talk about), he also never failed a drug test. Regardless, his climbing prowess and aggressive style had a big impact on fans and riders.
3. Performance. There's a difference between TdF performance and being the best cyclist. You've got to be one of the top riders to stand a chance of winning, but you won't get there unless your team is strong. Armstrong had a very strong team around him.

I'm not hating on Lance, but is he on the shortlist of "greatest cyclists of all time"? Well, if you make that road racers, and make the shortlist at least 8 long, maybe.

[back on topic] So yeah, I'm predicting a fast race with Lance outside the top three, but a time of around 3:54 (or whatever I said back on page 2(?)).

---

----------------------------------
http://ironvision.blogspot.com ; @drSteve1663

A couple of quick thoughts to the interesting replies on here before I run out the door to do the Skirtchaser 5k, watch out Bryan Dunn, I'm serious this year!

-To compare cyclists from different generartions is similar to comparing golfers, football players, or athletes in any sport from different time periods. It's nearly impossible to do. Look at tennis, Federer would have won double as many majors had Nadal not come along, and Nadal a few more if not for Federer... They are two of the best ever, and their careers heavily over-lapped. Lots of factors go into what your eventual "palmares" are, and many of them don't have anything to do with how good you were. Had Lance not come along, or decided to keep playing golf insead of coming back to racing after cancer, Ullrich may have won six or possibly more Tours de France, making him the greatest ever, right? I don't think so, there's so much grey that it makes for a good discussion but there is no RIGHT answer. (Although, I feel like I've seen a few wrong answers on here...)

-It's easy to look at somebody's power file and conclude that somebody is or isn't a "Pro Tour" caliber rider. Some people are more efficient than others, more aero, have better economy, there are a lot of factors that dictate how good somebody is or can be. I'm telling you, Lieto is a Pro-Tour rider, he would not be last in the Tour De France. When he raced a couple of multi-day pro US stage races a few years back a few friends I have who've raced pro tour, were taunting me with text messages like,"Dude, this guy is better than you ever were on a bike, how do you expect to beat him in a TRIATHLON?" These guys know what they're talking about. He's got the watts, he's got the cadence, he's got the body, and he has acceleration and other factors that many top cycling triathletes don't have. Also, interestingly, he has the position too! Lieto sits nearly 5cm behind the bottom bracket on his TT bike. Many of the top triathlon cyclists would struggle to still ride their fast TT's when they would have to move their seats back 4-7cm's to comply with UCI regs. Just something to think about. Look at Bjorne, dude's a monster on the bike in triathlon, comparable to Lieto and perhaps just a little less consistent. Bjorne time trials as well as many Pro Tour guys, but look at his size, he would not make it up the hills if he had to race a full pro cycling schedule. He also pushes WAY too big a gear to ever respond to accelerations all day. Lieto would climb well, and he has proven that he can. He also has the nice fast cadence required to cycle at a high level. In no way would he ever beat Lance or is he comparable to some super-domestique you may find, after all, there is only one Jens Voight.

-In any top level activity the differences between the good guys and the great, are very small. Most of us realize this. A 3:50 400 meter long-course swim probably won't make the Olympic Team for an American this time around, but 3:50 is pretty darn good and if you put that guy in the open water with Thorpe or Hackett, over 2.4 miles, or 1.2 miles, or whatever, I wouldn't think there would be a distinguishable difference in how well they swim or who puts a gap into whom. Yes, 3:50 isn't fast enough to make the final heat of the Olympic Games, but it's right up there, and it's easily good enough to compete with anybody in open water conditions. I don't know what Potts has done a 400 in, but I would bet you he could probably sit on this guy's feet if he started with him. That's how I view Lieto in comparison to Lance. Nowhere near, yet surprisingly close. Comparing an individual sport athlete to a triathlete is hard to do. If two runners both run a 5k, one goes 14:00, the other 14:30, it's easy to conclude the 14:00 guy is going to SMOKE the 14:30 dude on the tri-run every time, right? Well I can tell you it doesn't always work like this, so many other factors come into play that can change the outcome, many of them are unknowns. Of course if their ability is significantly different then you can draw more reasonable conclusions, but I don't think Lieto and Lance at this point in their lives are hugely different on the bike in a triathlon format.

-It's easy to look back at old Lance footage and go,"wow, look how fast he was when he was younger, can he do it again?" C'mon, the kid was 16 years old! He lived with his mom, didn't have any money or much support, and he was kicking the snot out of The Legends of our sport, sometimes not just on the bike... Also, if you watch those old races he was nowhere near the cyclist he became, he was just a big strong kid. When he first made waves as a cyclist, he lost his first couple attempts in the Tour Du Pont (America's big stage race at the time, 10-12 days i think) due mainly to his weak time trials. Compared to Erik Breukink, or Raul Alcala, or Ekimov, (I think those were the three guys who beat him in three different years) he really looked terrible in the TT's. I remember once going into the final TT the race was tight, and Alcala caught Lance for a minute, flatted, got passed by Lance, got a new wheel, then re-passed Lance again, it was hard to watch for a US Lance fan. A year later in the '94 Tour de France, Indurain catches Lance for two minutes in the first TT and puts another 3-4 minutes into him, so we're talking six minutes over 39 miles maybe? Yeah, it's a lot, Lance was not a good TTer when he quit tris for cycling, yet as a triathlete he was smoking Pigg, Allen, Molina, and everyone else on the bike. His TT'ing improved and in '96 he was going very well, beating Rominger in the time trails in the Tour Du Pont and placing well in the Tour De France prologue and the Olympic Games, with cancer.... '99 and back racing, ok, his time trialing became incredible, lots of factors went into this, but I would say now he's still certainly WAAAYYYYY better than he ever was pre-pro-cycling and back then he was crushing everybody in triathlon...

-I raced an event a couple of years back in Northern California. It was unique, in that you rode a 40k in the morning and then in the afternoon you did a swim/run/swim/run starting based on your 40k time. So the guy who won the 40k would start in the afternoon first, followed 20 seconds later by the person who finished the 40k 20 seconds back, and so on. A pretty cool idea... It was in San Jose. The 40k was accurately measured, and I figured I would do well, but also lining up were Lieto, David Thompson, Chris Foster, Clayton Fettel, and quite a few other good guys. The 40k had one decent hill on the course, maybe 1.5 miles long, the rest was a flat and fast loop course. I split 52:00 low and David Thompson rode almost exactly the same time, within a second or two, and we were second and third. Lieto went 49 and beat us by 3 minutes! Nobody could believe it. Fettell I think went 55, Foster maybe 54, these guys are TOP triathletes.... After this race I realized Lieto is a cyclist who does triathlon, and not the other way around. He also started this sport very late, had he started triathlon as a 15 year old, instead of 25 or 26, I bet you he would have quickly ended up in cycling, like Lance. Would he have been as successful? No, but he would have done very well...

Now I have to go run a 5k, it seemed like a good idea when I signed up earlier in the week! Really hoping Simon Whitfield doesn't show up, or Gomez, or Brownlee, or Brownlee, or anyone too fast....

"Okay, it's the time prediction thread. I already predicted a fast time (several pages back), but I'm going to go out on a limb and put Amey, Lieto and Cunningham in 1st, 2nd, 3rd. So, now that's done... "

Matt Reed can put down some smokin times when he is on form. I'm putting him down for the win.

I predict Lance in top 3 off the bike. Will lose 2 spots on the run. So...anywhere between 3rd and 5th depending on how the others are fairing. 3:59:59.

This is your year to catch one of those chicks, Lewis! I just need to catch Jamie. :)

---

-Of course it's 'effing hard, it's IRONMAN!
Team ZOOT
ZOOT, QR, Garmin, HED Wheels, Zealios, FormSwim, Precision Hydration, Rudy Project

Haha, yeah panama city florida is a bit different than panama city, panama.

Fixed