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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [LewisElliot] [ In reply to ]
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Kudos to you my friend, for a great story, keen insight, and fair prediction all grounded in personal experience. One of my favorite posts of all time.

Thank you for sharing, was great fun to read.

Andrew




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    Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [drsteve] [ In reply to ]
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    According to his interview, he reads the forum for advice - http://www.slowtwitch.com/...s_Tri_Bike_2568.html
    so advantage, um, Lance. :)
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    Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [LewisElliot] [ In reply to ]
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    Thanks for sharing that - great insight for sure.

    I'm surprised about your assessment of his running though. Very interesting.

    _______________________________________________
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    Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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    sciguy wrote:
    Lewis,

    Thanks so much for the great first hand story. It's a breath of fresh air.

    Hugh

    Yep, definitely a great read! That's the kind of stuff that makes this a place to hang out...

    Aaron Bales
    Lansing Triathlon Team
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    Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [LewisElliot] [ In reply to ]
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    By any chance was that race in Washington the West Plains Hammerfest in Cheney ('92)? They had race leaders wear shark helmet covers?


    I have deceptive speed.........I'm slower than I look!
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    Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [SpeedRacer1] [ In reply to ]
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    Agreed. I pulled out an old result sheet where as an 18 year old ('89) he was over 28mph for over 60k and put about 8 minutes on the next fastest cyclist (Scott Molina). I don't know how he will pace but he could drop who he wants when he wants.


    I have deceptive speed.........I'm slower than I look!
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    Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [MI_Mumps] [ In reply to ]
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    "Yep, definitely a great read! That's the kind of stuff that makes this a place to hang out..."

    x2


    -----------------------------------------------------------
    "No more hurting people - Peace"
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    Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [Skoalz] [ In reply to ]
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    I think I'm more excited to see his bike split than anything. Rumor has it he's been doing century rides immediately followed by 5 to 7 mile runs and 75 mile rides followed by 12-15 mile runs. By the looks of things he definitely wants to exploit his strength. I know Lieto is capable of 26mph bike split and a 1:10 - 1:15 marathon. I'm thinking Lance will attempt to put 3-4 minutes on Lieto. Everyone else is going to sit back and hope those two blow each other up and take advantage. ;-)
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    Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [Skoalz] [ In reply to ]
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    Hey what race was that and where was it? I was looking for some circa 1988 or 1989 race results in Lewisville, TX.

    That is what some folks forget or rather don't know. For as much as people talk about how triathlon has not gotten 'that' much faster, as a teenager, LA was beating the pants off of some really good athletes. Maybe not every race, but certainly enough of them.

    I got a text from a good friend tonight asking if he could go top-5. Yeah, I think so. I think top-3 if he runs well. Times don't really matter in the grand scheme of things so I'm not getting wrapped up in the times. I think that Bevan is the unknown, and in my opinion a favorite. Chris maybe...especially with the rumors of a 'fast' current aided swim...but I think that Lance swims better, rides better, and probably runs equal. That one will be a question of triathlon experience. Rasmus as well depending on which Rasmus shows up and depending on what 50 hours of travel do. Matt Reed, same as Rasmus without the travel. Richie clearly is very experienced and races well and crafty.


    Brandon Marsh - Website | @BrandonMarshTX | RokaSports | 1stEndurance | ATC Bikeshop |
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    Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [-Tex] [ In reply to ]
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    It was the Heritage International Triathlon in Provo, Utah.


    I have deceptive speed.........I'm slower than I look!
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    Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [LewisElliot] [ In reply to ]
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    Fantastic post. Thanks for taking the time. So tell me/us what you think he does time wise this weekend?
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    Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [SpeedRacer1] [ In reply to ]
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    all of his bike/run workouts are on strava, so no need to try to guess
    http://app.strava.com/athletes/125154
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    Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [3Aims] [ In reply to ]
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    I guess that's the big question, what Lance will do this weekend...?

    My feeling, and it's just a feeling, is he's not where he could be and that he could get "the bug" at this race causing him to really go for it. Go for it means pulling out ALL the stops. Let's not forget Lance 2 years ago in Kona with Dr. Lim swallowing mini-thermometers to test how hot an aero helmet made his core temperature in Kona conditions... That's pretty serious... I find it interesting that he's been in the wind tunnel, testing things, that's already more serious than I thought he'd be. He says he came "way forward" with his saddle, yet he's still on the back Trek Speed concept setting with the saddle all the way back mostly, he's probably 4-5 cm behind the BB now. On his TDF TT bike he was about 7cm behind, so this was not to comply with the UCI standards, but where he had the most power. That said, he was spending the majority of his time at 9 or so cm behind the BB on his road bike, so 7 may have worked best for him at the time. Now, 4-5 cm is a good compromise for an open-hip good running off-the-bike tt position. Don't be fooled though, this is a VERY slack angle compared to the majority of triathletes. I think he probably has good power and good aero numbers in his "new" position. Sorry, I'm off on a tangent.

    So right now, I think Lance can swim lead group, can bike with Lieto, and probably run as well or close to as well as Lieto. Which brings up another point, I think people don't give Lieto nearly the respect he deserves as a cyclist. Right now, with the swimmer upper body and everything, he's a Pro-Tour level cyclist. If he focused only on riding, he could be a GOOD Pro-Tour rider. I think Chris knew or always felt that, he could be the best Ironman triathlete in the world, and one time a couple years back he came within 2 minutes of doing that. I give him credit for sticking with his dream even though he is really that good on the bike.

    Even considering his vast experience as a cyclist, I don't think Lance is probably that well-versed in what happens in a half marathon in a 70.3, and certainly not as a 40 year old. This is why he says he'll race conservatively, which I think is code for,"sticking at the front on the bike, with Lieto." He could break down out there on the run, but I think he also could run near Lieto, or say 4-6 minutes off a Jesse Thomas, Rasmus, or Reed on a good day. I think those two could have a big gap off the bike together and it could be very interesting. One thing I haven't heard mentioned is how psyched Lieto must be that Lance appears to be seriously coming out to play. Last year after Kona, I think there was talk of Lieto quitting IM due to justly being frustrated by the legal/illegal draft packs and wind blocking media that make breaking away nearly impossible. Well now he's got Lance, and where do you think the wind-favorable media is going to be hanging out? If Lieto ever had a fair shot at Kona, this year may be it...

    Could Lance win? Sure. Will he win? I think probably not yet. Is he capable of beating all these guys? Yes, and half IM IMO will be his best distance. Although clearly, based on the races he picked out, he's thinking about Kona. I'll go out on a limb and say I think he'll win a 70.3 this year. If you were going to do odds on this race though, it would be hard even without Lance. Who's the favorite? If somebody had a 1/6 chance of winning, that would be pretty darn good... I would give Lance nearly that...

    Just a side note. As a pro, Lance has done something really cool. Age-groupers want to think it's about them, and it is, but not totally. He picked out a schedule with,"The intention of scoring enough pro-points to qualify for Kona." Here's a guy that could decide morning-of, and probably get to race Kona, but instead, he's going to go pick up the points like every other pro. This is far more tedious than even finding one qualifier and rocking-it like age-groupers have to do, which is awesome BTW. We complain about the system as pros because it's expensive and hard from a scheduling perspective, but of all people Lance Armstrong certainly could find many reasons NOT to want to do this... All of us pros agree there needs to be a system in place, and although not perfect, it's what we've got right now. I think Lance is giving huge legitimacy to the sport, the sponsors, and the professionals within Ironman triathlon, by working his way up the rankings into a Kona qualifying spot, or at least trying to. I think he genuinely cares about triathlon, and many people don't realize that smart and professional decisions like these are "giving back" in a major way.
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    Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [LewisElliot] [ In reply to ]
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    You should post here more often.
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    Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [gregn] [ In reply to ]
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    gregn wrote:
    You should post here more often.

    Agreed.

    Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One
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    Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [GMAN19030] [ In reply to ]
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    Yes, thanks!
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    Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [LewisElliot] [ In reply to ]
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    Very interesting post. I hope he gets the 'bug' to do well. I think IM France could be his best result for the year if he goes in full health. It will suit his climbing and technical ability and he could just leave everyone behind in the hills. Then being so far ahead he will be able to relax and run at his own pace. I wouldn't discount one of the previous IMFrance winners passing him late in the run though. Running 42kms well after the bike/swim is the hard part and I don't see LA ever going sub 3hrs. I believe he could(have) but he is leaving the triathlon return pretty late in his athletic carreer I reckon.
    As for IMKona, I think he will be tired out by October. If he does well there and keeps getting stronger during the season I will be amazed. And I agree about having such a big support crew, that is worth 10mins in an ironman, over a struggling pro who does it all themselves.


    G.
    www.TriathlonShots.com

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    Full event coverage of triathlon/ironman in photos.


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    Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [SWoo] [ In reply to ]
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    Looks like he's doing about 150 miles per week lately, at least if strava has all his miles. That's really low for a pro but he probably doesn't need to do that much to be really strong on the bike. But that would imply he's well below protour form.

    No question he has the potential to duke it out with the best in the sport but I don't think he's done enough training to do that yet. I expect him to do reasonably well to start but not be competitive for the win. It should be interesting to see how much he improves over the season.
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    Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [GMAN19030] [ In reply to ]
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    GMAN19030 wrote:
    gregn wrote:
    You should post here more often.


    Agreed.

    You guys can't have him, Lewis is all ours here in the Valley pf the Sun and we won't share. :) Great stuff, Lewis!

    -Of course it's 'effing hard, it's IRONMAN!
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    Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [lacticturkey] [ In reply to ]
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    lacticturkey wrote:
    looks like Tek just uped the ante with a UCI illegal version...


    When one front derailleur is just not enough..



    Heath Dotson
    HD Coaching:Website |Twitter: 140 Characters or Less|Facebook:Follow us on Facebook
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    Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [3Aims] [ In reply to ]
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    4:10
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    Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [LewisElliot] [ In reply to ]
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    LewisElliot wrote:
    Right now, with the swimmer upper body and everything, he's a Pro-Tour level cyclist. If he focused only on riding, he could be a GOOD Pro-Tour rider.

    I appreciate the insights and agree with everything you've written except this statement about Chris Lieto. I'd give a decent domestic pro rating at best. Not sure he would have ever made it as a pro-tour rider. He had a few good results racing as an amateur against mid level domestic pros, but nothing that would suggest pro-tour greatness.

    Here is something to chew on. It is a file from the last stage of the Tour of Quatar from Ian Stannard. Stannard is a domestique on Sky. Definitely not one of the stars of the pro-tour.

    https://www.trainingpeaks.com/...4IQRAQIR7QWAB3DP6CSE

    I don't think Chris has it in to produce those kind of numbers..



    Heath Dotson
    HD Coaching:Website |Twitter: 140 Characters or Less|Facebook:Follow us on Facebook
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    Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [3Aims] [ In reply to ]
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    Did i miss it? Why isnt his name on the participant list?
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    Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [Ex-cyclist] [ In reply to ]
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    Ex-cyclist wrote:
    LewisElliot wrote:
    Right now, with the swimmer upper body and everything, he's a Pro-Tour level cyclist. If he focused only on riding, he could be a GOOD Pro-Tour rider.


    I appreciate the insights and agree with everything you've written except this statement about Chris Lieto. I'd give a decent domestic pro rating at best. Not sure he would have ever made it as a pro-tour rider. He had a few good results racing as an amateur against mid level domestic pros, but nothing that would suggest pro-tour greatness.

    Here is something to chew on. It is a file from the last stage of the Tour of Quatar from Ian Stannard. Stannard is a domestique on Sky. Definitely not one of the stars of the pro-tour.

    https://www.trainingpeaks.com/...4IQRAQIR7QWAB3DP6CSE

    I don't think Chris has it in to produce those kind of numbers..


    Agreed. I say this knowing that Chris is by far the more experienced triathlete and having a good bike sets up a good run... but why does anyone think Lieto (or any triathlete) is remotely in Lance's cycling universe? The comments like "Lance will have a top-3 bike split" or "He'll be close to Lieto" just sound absurd to me. I think it's absurd if he doesn't have the top bike split unless he plays it real conservative this weekend just because it's an unknown to him. I wouldn't expect him to be conservative after this race. Lance is arguably the greatest cyclist who has ever lived. Out of the billions of people that have ridden a bike, he's #1. Lieto couldn't beat the worst TdF rider on his best day. Lance won the f'n thing 7 times and came in 2nd just three years ago (moving him up from third due to Contador losing the crown).

    He swims as good if not better than Lieto and will be in the mix on the swim. He has no equal on the bike. The run is the big question. I expect him to be first out of T2 at any race he wants. Can he hold on? We shall see. He certainly isn't going to win any foot races against the likes of Crowie, Raelert, Macca, and many others. His strategy won't be unlike Lieto's strategy in building a cushion on the bike in an attempt to hold on. It works okay for Chris in most places outside of Hawaii.

    Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One
    Last edited by: GMAN19030: Feb 11, 12 7:23
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    Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [GMAN19030] [ In reply to ]
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    GMAN19030 wrote:
    Ex-cyclist wrote:
    LewisElliot wrote:
    Right now, with the swimmer upper body and everything, he's a Pro-Tour level cyclist. If he focused only on riding, he could be a GOOD Pro-Tour rider.


    I appreciate the insights and agree with everything you've written except this statement about Chris Lieto. I'd give a decent domestic pro rating at best. Not sure he would have ever made it as a pro-tour rider. He had a few good results racing as an amateur against mid level domestic pros, but nothing that would suggest pro-tour greatness.

    Here is something to chew on. It is a file from the last stage of the Tour of Quatar from Ian Stannard. Stannard is a domestique on Sky. Definitely not one of the stars of the pro-tour.

    https://www.trainingpeaks.com/...4IQRAQIR7QWAB3DP6CSE

    I don't think Chris has it in to produce those kind of numbers..


    Agreed. I say this knowing that Chris is by far the more experienced triathlete and having a good bike sets up a good run... but why does anyone think Lieto (or any triathlete) is remotely in Lance's cycling universe? The comments like "Lance will have a top-3 bike split" or "He'll be close to Lieto" just sound absurd to me. I think it's absurd if he doesn't have the top bike split unless he plays it real conservative this weekend just because it's an unknown to him. I wouldn't expect him to be conservative after this race. Lance is arguably the greatest cyclist who has ever lived. Out of the billions of people that have ridden a bike, he's #1. Lieto couldn't beat the worst TdF rider on his best day. Lance won the f'n thing 7 times and came in 2nd just three years ago (moving him up from third due to Contador losing the crown).

    He swims as good if not better than Lieto and will be in the mix on the swim. He has no equal on the bike. The run is the big question. I expect him to be first out of T2 at any race he wants. Can he hold on? We shall see. He certainly isn't going to win any foot races against the likes of Crowie, Raelert, Macca, and many others. His strategy won't be unlike Lieto's strategy in building a cushion on the bike in an attempt to hold on. It works okay for Chris in most places outside of Hawaii.

    Eddy Merckx was better and will always be the best. I'd probably put Hinault 2nd. LA was definitely the best Tour rider of the recent generation.

    I don't think the point was that Chris was close to or equal to LA, but that he could have been a pro-tour rider. We'll never know that for sure, but saying he is currently pro-tour quality is a big stretch. I think even Lieto has made comments confirming that.



    Heath Dotson
    HD Coaching:Website |Twitter: 140 Characters or Less|Facebook:Follow us on Facebook
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