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Tdf Stage 14: Breakaway Sticks? Finish Steep enough for GC gaps?
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Have a look at tomorrow's final half kilometer. It's got a relatively steep 9.6% pitch:



It is a lump stage profile. Probably would be the harder IM course in the world



This could be a good day for a breakaway, but I would think GVA and Michael Matthews will have something to say on this one. Too bad, this was a perfect Peter Sagan stage!!!

I don't anticipate any change in the GC:

1ARU FABIO51ASTANA PRO TEAM55H 30' 06'' 2FROOME CHRISTOPHER1TEAM SKY55H 30' 12''+ 00' 06''3BARDET ROMAIN11AG2R LA MONDIALE55H 30' 31''+ 00' 25''4URAN RIGOBERTO188CANNONDALE DRAPAC PROFESSIONAL CYCLING TEAM55H 30' 41''+ 00' 35''5LANDA MIKEL6TEAM SKY55H 31' 15''+ 01' 09''6MARTIN DANIEL105QUICK - STEP FLOORS55H 31' 38''+ 01' 32''7YATES SIMON89ORICA - SCOTT55H 32' 10''+ 02' 04''8QUINTANA NAIRO21MOVISTAR TEAM55H 32' 13''+ 02' 07''9MEINTJES LOUIS61UAE TEAM EMIRATES55H 34' 57''+ 04' 51''10CONTADOR ALBERTO31TREK - SEGAFREDO55H 35' 28''+ 05' 22''



Green Jersey Race is not necessarily over:

1KITTEL MARCEL101QUICK - STEP FLOORS363 PTS2MATTHEWS MICHAEL141TEAM SUNWEB235 PTS3GREIPEL ANDRÉ131LOTTO SOUDAL180 PTS4KRISTOFF ALEXANDER125TEAM KATUSHA ALPECIN158 PTS5COLBRELLI SONNY197BAHRAIN - MERIDA107 PTS6GROENEWEGEN DYLAN163TEAM LOTTO NL - JUMBO94 PTS7BOASSON HAGEN EDVALD92TEAM DIMENSION DATA93 PTS8ARU FABIO51ASTANA PRO TEAM78 PTS9MARTIN DANIEL105QUICK - STEP FLOORS78 PTS10BOUHANNI NACER151COFIDIS, SOLUTIONS CREDITS78 PTS
Last edited by: devashish_paul: Jul 14, 17 18:50
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Re: Tdf Stage 14: Breakaway Sticks? Finish Steep enough for GC gaps? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Yup, this stage had "Sagan vs GVA, what could have been at Rio, 2016" written all over it. Instead, we'll have the poor man's Sagan (Matthews) filling in. Might have a Gilbert sighting tomorrow (he's been MIA so far). If Martin wasn't up there on GC, he would have been fun to watch too.

Unless Kittel gets kicked out of the race (cue the race commissaries), the Green Jersey race is over. No shift in the GC standings tomorrow, but it should be a good stage to watch.



Some say "I can". Others say "I can't". Both manage to be correct.
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Re: Tdf Stage 14: Breakaway Sticks? Finish Steep enough for GC gaps? [Alvin Tostig] [ In reply to ]
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Any chance of that final grade creating an GC separation (even if 2-5 seconds?). I think no. Its just too short and the speed will already be so high before they hit that grade that the momentum carries them 100m and everyone can empty the tank in the final 100m. That barely leaves 300m of real climbing which is less than 45 seconds at 25-30 kph. Does not seem to be enough to build up any significant lactate....it's barely more than what a swimmer would experience in a hard 100m to put it in perspective
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Re: Tdf Stage 14: Breakaway Sticks? Finish Steep enough for GC gaps? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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The final is too steep for the sprinter's teams and no GC team is going to want to ride if they don't have to. Sunweb might ride for Mathews if they can drop Kittel, because QS won't chase too hard. Group of 8-12 goes. Gilbert would be a good guess. Others on my WAG list are GVA, Kung (BMC needs something), Rolland, Cummings. Mathews.

Vockler will certainly be out there wagging his tongue
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Re: Tdf Stage 14: Breakaway Sticks? Finish Steep enough for GC gaps? [Alvin Tostig] [ In reply to ]
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good calls. it is on stages like this that I miss the all-round-ness of Sagan. like a wheelie on the final climb.


perhaps this is the next chance for a Gilbert, GVA, or even Voelkler flyer. me, if I was Dimension Data, I'd send Eddie. they are kidding themselves if they think he will eventually beat Kittel.


edit:
and Voelkler is in the break. LOL. he can't have too many of these left. I figured he'd have to give it a go.
Last edited by: dsmallwood: Jul 15, 17 5:13
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Re: Tdf Stage 14: Breakaway Sticks? Finish Steep enough for GC gaps? [dsmallwood] [ In reply to ]
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dsmallwood wrote:
good calls. it is on stages like this that I miss the all-round-ness of Sagan. like a wheelie on the final climb.


perhaps this is the next chance for a Gilbert, GVA, or even Voelkler flyer. me, if I was Dimension Data, I'd send Eddie. they are kidding themselves if they think he will eventually beat Kittel.


edit:
and Voelkler is in the break. LOL. he can't have too many of these left. I figured he'd have to give it a go.

I would love for Voekler to pull this off. He is retiring at the end of this TdF. Break does not seem to have enough horsepower to get away, but it is all so low on the GC that it can get some rope and sprinter teams won't be motivated to chase....mainly Sunweb with Matthews and BMC with GVA would be motivated to chase!
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Re: Tdf Stage 14: Breakaway Sticks? Finish Steep enough for GC gaps? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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What was up with Aru today? Astana isn't Team Sky, but holy potato. Didn't see that coming.



Some say "I can". Others say "I can't". Both manage to be correct.
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Re: Tdf Stage 14: Breakaway Sticks? Finish Steep enough for GC gaps? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Two Questions:
1. What is the rectangular object sticking out the back of every riders' saddle?
2. Are some riders wearing a 1 piece racing suit? It looks that way to me and now I want one!
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Re: Tdf Stage 14: Breakaway Sticks? Finish Steep enough for GC gaps? [johnnybefit] [ In reply to ]
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johnnybefit wrote:
Two Questions:
1. What is the rectangular object sticking out the back of every riders' saddle?
2. Are some riders wearing a 1 piece racing suit? It looks that way to me and now I want one!

1. data tracker. see here for more info.
2. yes.
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Re: Tdf Stage 14: Breakaway Sticks? Finish Steep enough for GC gaps? [logella] [ In reply to ]
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logella wrote:
johnnybefit wrote:
Two Questions:
1. What is the rectangular object sticking out the back of every riders' saddle?
2. Are some riders wearing a 1 piece racing suit? It looks that way to me and now I want one!


1. data tracker. see here for more info.
2. yes.

Awesome, thank you for the link. Now can you please find me a link to the cycling suits...not that I should actually wear one...
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Re: Tdf Stage 14: Breakaway Sticks? Finish Steep enough for GC gaps? [johnnybefit] [ In reply to ]
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Quote:
Now can you please find me a link to the cycling suits...not that I should actually wear one...

you're on your own there.
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Re: Tdf Stage 14: Breakaway Sticks? Finish Steep enough for GC gaps? [Alvin Tostig] [ In reply to ]
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Alvin Tostig wrote:
What was up with Aru today? Astana isn't Team Sky, but holy potato. Didn't see that coming.

Over the course of a 3 week grand tour, everybody has atleast 1 bad day, today was that day for Aru.
Didn't help Astana doesn't have any strong riders left, where as Sky has the train.
Happy to see Matthews come good [he's in my fantasy team too], Sunweb had this stage cicled on their calender for months. He outsprinted GVA, Jill Bear, Boss Hog,

res, non verba
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Re: Tdf Stage 14: Breakaway Sticks? Finish Steep enough for GC gaps? [Alvin Tostig] [ In reply to ]
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Well, there were two hard days before. And with the peloton riding full ack it's not that easy to go to the front with no support. But I am surprised two about such a gap.

About the Land episode I think we won't find out until way later. Sky will play it down even when they have a problem. In 2012 they said it was not a big deal and Froomey didn't understand the radio. Wiggo wrote in his book about 2012 that there was no problem. Only Froome in 2014 wrote the obvious, that there was a problem and he attacked on purpose.

But here it seems not so obvious. I find it savy to put Landa up there into the mix in case something happens to Froome. But then again why did they do all the work at the front and at the second group at the same time?
Landa could also have gone for the stage but with his flat out aggressive riding he burried every chance to win the sprint. He clearly rode like a GC guy would.

Anyway, interesting.
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Re: Tdf Stage 14: Breakaway Sticks? Finish Steep enough for GC gaps? [ToBeasy] [ In reply to ]
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very interesting was NBC's interview with Aru's astana teammate (forget the name, but the dude trying to pull aru along in later kms) - interviewer asked how he felt that aru lost the jersey and froome has it back and he retorted back: "good". said it quickly and firmly. very strange answer, vande velde was just baffled he said this.

now, i don't doubt that astana would be in a spot of bother to protect the yellow as well as sky day in day out, but it's very odd that astana seems content to lose the jersey. granted, the interview was in heat of the moment after the stage and maybe off camera or an hour later he may have answered differently, but still - odd that he actually said this.
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Re: Tdf Stage 14: Breakaway Sticks? Finish Steep enough for GC gaps? [ToBeasy] [ In reply to ]
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ToBeasy wrote:
Well, there were two hard days before. And with the peloton riding full ack it's not that easy to go to the front with no support. But I am surprised two about such a gap.

About the Land episode I think we won't find out until way later. Sky will play it down even when they have a problem. In 2012 they said it was not a big deal and Froomey didn't understand the radio. Wiggo wrote in his book about 2012 that there was no problem. Only Froome in 2014 wrote the obvious, that there was a problem and he attacked on purpose.

But here it seems not so obvious. I find it savy to put Landa up there into the mix in case something happens to Froome. But then again why did they do all the work at the front and at the second group at the same time?
Landa could also have gone for the stage but with his flat out aggressive riding he burried every chance to win the sprint. He clearly rode like a GC guy would.

Anyway, interesting.

Here is my question. Aru, Froome, Uran and all of us armchair guys on ST knew that there was this climb at the end and the likes of Matthews and GVA were going to be duking it out full throttle, which means you better be right behind them starting that final 500m. Froome and Uran did exactly that. You could say Froome's team helped him get in position, but what is stopping Aru from just shadowing Froome's team inside the peloton and making sure he is with them?
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Re: Tdf Stage 14: Breakaway Sticks? Finish Steep enough for GC gaps? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
ToBeasy wrote:
Well, there were two hard days before. And with the peloton riding full ack it's not that easy to go to the front with no support. But I am surprised two about such a gap.

About the Land episode I think we won't find out until way later. Sky will play it down even when they have a problem. In 2012 they said it was not a big deal and Froomey didn't understand the radio. Wiggo wrote in his book about 2012 that there was no problem. Only Froome in 2014 wrote the obvious, that there was a problem and he attacked on purpose.

But here it seems not so obvious. I find it savy to put Landa up there into the mix in case something happens to Froome. But then again why did they do all the work at the front and at the second group at the same time?
Landa could also have gone for the stage but with his flat out aggressive riding he burried every chance to win the sprint. He clearly rode like a GC guy would.

Anyway, interesting.

Here is my question. Aru, Froome, Uran and all of us armchair guys on ST knew that there was this climb at the end and the likes of Matthews and GVA were going to be duking it out full throttle, which means you better be right behind them starting that final 500m. Froome and Uran did exactly that. You could say Froome's team helped him get in position, but what is stopping Aru from just shadowing Froome's team inside the peloton and making sure he is with them?

I don't know but maybe he is just not that used to position himself like a sprinter? He is not as experienced defending a Jersey as say Froome is. Or he just had a bad day, or missed the right moment or was too nervous and messed it up.

What did he say post race?
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Re: Tdf Stage 14: Breakaway Sticks? Finish Steep enough for GC gaps? [ToBeasy] [ In reply to ]
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those are all just poor excuses. not experienced? never been in this position?

errr, i call bullshit. i have ZERO road cycling racing experience. non, zippy. i am a triathlete with previous mountain bike racing experience (like 5 races, single track).

the whole time i was telling my housemate, wtf is going on. what is aru doing back there. there were moments where he was literally soft pedaling or coasting as groups of 5-6 riders were passing him.

i don't see why he couldn't be aggressive, follow froome and even take some time out of froome. he's not going to catch matthews or gva. but you're telling me if setup properly, he couldn't take 1 second out of froome on that super short steep section? he gave up so much time today, in such a silly fashion. with if bardet wasn't so bad at the TT, i'm not even sure aru will make the podium.

john

Catalyst Wheel Covers: Be faster and look great without sacrificing weight.

TOPO Footwear: use code TOPOTRAN20 for 20% off any order!
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Re: Tdf Stage 14: Breakaway Sticks? Finish Steep enough for GC gaps? [johnnybefit] [ In reply to ]
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2. Are some riders wearing a 1 piece racing suit? It looks that way to me and now I want one![/quote]


All of the big brands are doing the one piece "speed suit" or "racing suit" different brands use different names.
I believe that Castelli "invented" the idea about 5-6 years ago and now everyone does one
For example http://www.jlvelo.com/menskinsuits.php

----------------------------
http://www.cyclewisecoaching.com
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Re: Tdf Stage 14: Breakaway Sticks? Finish Steep enough for GC gaps? [ahhchon] [ In reply to ]
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ahhchon wrote:
those are all just poor excuses. not experienced? never been in this position?

errr, i call bullshit. i have ZERO road cycling racing experience. non, zippy. i am a triathlete with previous mountain bike racing experience (like 5 races, single track).

the whole time i was telling my housemate, wtf is going on. what is aru doing back there. there were moments where he was literally soft pedaling or coasting as groups of 5-6 riders were passing him.

i don't see why he couldn't be aggressive, follow froome and even take some time out of froome. he's not going to catch matthews or gva. but you're telling me if setup properly, he couldn't take 1 second out of froome on that super short steep section? he gave up so much time today, in such a silly fashion. with if bardet wasn't so bad at the TT, i'm not even sure aru will make the podium.

john

What you wrote is what I was thinking, BUT my only caveat is I have not sat in a 200 person protour peloton at 60-70 kph crammed into a single lane twisting through a city center. If anything, starting 10K out, I would have done everything that my protour engine affords me to bump, weave and muscle my way up and get to the point that i am beside Froome, or at least at the same depth in the peloton as him from the front guys. Surely there are some other non team members on other teams who would be happy to help him rather than see Sky win and there has to be a few riders on other teams searching for contracts next year who would extend a favour or two. But he sat waaaay back forever. I'm not a big Froome fan and was getting excited about Aru (which you can tell from many of my comments these TdF thread), but on a day like today, I was thinking, "Aru deserves to lose just for being stupid and getting out foxed by Froome". Same thing I said about Quintana last year when he gave time away to Froome on the descent and on the day Froome attacked with Sagan. These guys can't just sit around and give away time on Froome when there is no reason to give time away. Froome is proving why he has won the yellow so many times. He takes time from rivals when they should lose none. They are just napping at the wheel or so it seems.
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Re: Tdf Stage 14: Breakaway Sticks? Finish Steep enough for GC gaps? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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No idea about all that. What I do know was that he was sooo far back for a long time. The commentators called it a long way out and were perplexed as to why he was so far back.

Tomorrow will be interesting going into the last rest day.
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Re: Tdf Stage 14: Breakaway Sticks? Finish Steep enough for GC gaps? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
ahhchon wrote:
those are all just poor excuses. not experienced? never been in this position?

errr, i call bullshit. i have ZERO road cycling racing experience. non, zippy. i am a triathlete with previous mountain bike racing experience (like 5 races, single track).

the whole time i was telling my housemate, wtf is going on. what is aru doing back there. there were moments where he was literally soft pedaling or coasting as groups of 5-6 riders were passing him.

i don't see why he couldn't be aggressive, follow froome and even take some time out of froome. he's not going to catch matthews or gva. but you're telling me if setup properly, he couldn't take 1 second out of froome on that super short steep section? he gave up so much time today, in such a silly fashion. with if bardet wasn't so bad at the TT, i'm not even sure aru will make the podium.

john


What you wrote is what I was thinking, BUT my only caveat is I have not sat in a 200 person protour peloton at 60-70 kph crammed into a single lane twisting through a city center. If anything, starting 10K out, I would have done everything that my protour engine affords me to bump, weave and muscle my way up and get to the point that i am beside Froome, or at least at the same depth in the peloton as him from the front guys. Surely there are some other non team members on other teams who would be happy to help him rather than see Sky win and there has to be a few riders on other teams searching for contracts next year who would extend a favour or two. But he sat waaaay back forever. I'm not a big Froome fan and was getting excited about Aru (which you can tell from many of my comments these TdF thread), but on a day like today, I was thinking, "Aru deserves to lose just for being stupid and getting out foxed by Froome". Same thing I said about Quintana last year when he gave time away to Froome on the descent and on the day Froome attacked with Sagan. These guys can't just sit around and give away time on Froome when there is no reason to give time away. Froome is proving why he has won the yellow so many times. He takes time from rivals when they should lose none. They are just napping at the wheel or so it seems.

you don't need protour experience to comment. go back and watch the video. at 5k out, at 3k out, there were moments where 20-30 riders were passing aru as he soft pedaled in the peleton. some of those could be tour rookies, no namers, etc. he's fabio aru. team leader, grand tour winner. i'd love to cut him some slack, but there is nothing to give.

Catalyst Wheel Covers: Be faster and look great without sacrificing weight.

TOPO Footwear: use code TOPOTRAN20 for 20% off any order!
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Re: Tdf Stage 14: Breakaway Sticks? Finish Steep enough for GC gaps? [ahhchon] [ In reply to ]
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ahhchon wrote:
devashish_paul wrote:
ahhchon wrote:
those are all just poor excuses. not experienced? never been in this position?

errr, i call bullshit. i have ZERO road cycling racing experience. non, zippy. i am a triathlete with previous mountain bike racing experience (like 5 races, single track).

the whole time i was telling my housemate, wtf is going on. what is aru doing back there. there were moments where he was literally soft pedaling or coasting as groups of 5-6 riders were passing him.

i don't see why he couldn't be aggressive, follow froome and even take some time out of froome. he's not going to catch matthews or gva. but you're telling me if setup properly, he couldn't take 1 second out of froome on that super short steep section? he gave up so much time today, in such a silly fashion. with if bardet wasn't so bad at the TT, i'm not even sure aru will make the podium.

john


What you wrote is what I was thinking, BUT my only caveat is I have not sat in a 200 person protour peloton at 60-70 kph crammed into a single lane twisting through a city center. If anything, starting 10K out, I would have done everything that my protour engine affords me to bump, weave and muscle my way up and get to the point that i am beside Froome, or at least at the same depth in the peloton as him from the front guys. Surely there are some other non team members on other teams who would be happy to help him rather than see Sky win and there has to be a few riders on other teams searching for contracts next year who would extend a favour or two. But he sat waaaay back forever. I'm not a big Froome fan and was getting excited about Aru (which you can tell from many of my comments these TdF thread), but on a day like today, I was thinking, "Aru deserves to lose just for being stupid and getting out foxed by Froome". Same thing I said about Quintana last year when he gave time away to Froome on the descent and on the day Froome attacked with Sagan. These guys can't just sit around and give away time on Froome when there is no reason to give time away. Froome is proving why he has won the yellow so many times. He takes time from rivals when they should lose none. They are just napping at the wheel or so it seems.


you don't need protour experience to comment. go back and watch the video. at 5k out, at 3k out, there were moments where 20-30 riders were passing aru as he soft pedaled in the peleton. some of those could be tour rookies, no namers, etc. he's fabio aru. team leader, grand tour winner. i'd love to cut him some slack, but there is nothing to give.

I watched the replay of the last 10K around 3 times yesterday and agree with your conclusion. I don't know what he was thinking. We all knew that you had to be in the front to not end up with GC gaps....that was the title of my thread 24 hours before the race even started just looking at the last 5K profile which I posted a jpeg of!
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Re: Tdf Stage 14: Breakaway Sticks? Finish Steep enough for GC gaps? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
ahhchon wrote:
devashish_paul wrote:
ahhchon wrote:
those are all just poor excuses. not experienced? never been in this position?

errr, i call bullshit. i have ZERO road cycling racing experience. non, zippy. i am a triathlete with previous mountain bike racing experience (like 5 races, single track).

the whole time i was telling my housemate, wtf is going on. what is aru doing back there. there were moments where he was literally soft pedaling or coasting as groups of 5-6 riders were passing him.

i don't see why he couldn't be aggressive, follow froome and even take some time out of froome. he's not going to catch matthews or gva. but you're telling me if setup properly, he couldn't take 1 second out of froome on that super short steep section? he gave up so much time today, in such a silly fashion. with if bardet wasn't so bad at the TT, i'm not even sure aru will make the podium.

john


What you wrote is what I was thinking, BUT my only caveat is I have not sat in a 200 person protour peloton at 60-70 kph crammed into a single lane twisting through a city center. If anything, starting 10K out, I would have done everything that my protour engine affords me to bump, weave and muscle my way up and get to the point that i am beside Froome, or at least at the same depth in the peloton as him from the front guys. Surely there are some other non team members on other teams who would be happy to help him rather than see Sky win and there has to be a few riders on other teams searching for contracts next year who would extend a favour or two. But he sat waaaay back forever. I'm not a big Froome fan and was getting excited about Aru (which you can tell from many of my comments these TdF thread), but on a day like today, I was thinking, "Aru deserves to lose just for being stupid and getting out foxed by Froome". Same thing I said about Quintana last year when he gave time away to Froome on the descent and on the day Froome attacked with Sagan. These guys can't just sit around and give away time on Froome when there is no reason to give time away. Froome is proving why he has won the yellow so many times. He takes time from rivals when they should lose none. They are just napping at the wheel or so it seems.


you don't need protour experience to comment. go back and watch the video. at 5k out, at 3k out, there were moments where 20-30 riders were passing aru as he soft pedaled in the peleton. some of those could be tour rookies, no namers, etc. he's fabio aru. team leader, grand tour winner. i'd love to cut him some slack, but there is nothing to give.


I watched the replay of the last 10K around 3 times yesterday and agree with your conclusion. I don't know what he was thinking. We all knew that you had to be in the front to not end up with GC gaps....that was the title of my thread 24 hours before the race even started just looking at the last 5K profile which I posted a jpeg of!

had nothing to do with what he was or was not thinking. go watch the replay a 4th time: you will see that he simply did not have the legs/fitness to get closer up front. yes, as you say, he could have easily jumped on the wheel of 20-30 different riders to get to the front, but physically, he could not; in fact you will see there is always a slight gap between him and any rider moving up. he is tired. simple as that. did not have the legs. i was even concerned that he was not going to finish the stage, he looked so tired coming into the finish line. will likely finish 5 or 6 in paris; not 1 or 2. his tour as a contender seems done.
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