Login required to started new threads

Login required to post replies

Prev Next
TdF 12: Into the Pyranees....Do We Actually Have a GC Race ??????
Quote | Reply
   
Looks like everyone in the GC who is a major player other than Froome, Aru and Uran have gone down and hit the deck and are wounded going into the last half.

As is the case with most yellow jersey guys, it's a matter of making your own "luck" and staying upright more than the other guys on many stages. I am sure past winners on turbo dope were able to use the enhancements of themselves and teams to stay out of trouble vs a few percent less FTP over 3 weeks. Sky does it with marginal gains and a big budget (actually unless you are Lemond riding for ADR, pretty well no TdF winners in 40 years have come from Division 3 equivalent teams....everyone is from a superteam). Sky have the budget, which means the top helpers and the marginal gains and we have everyone else (including them) maximizing inside the blood passport thresholds.

So here we go....Pyranees + Alps + final ITT to see who is "best of the rest" (am I giving the TdF win too early to Froome ???)

Thursday's stage while not the Queen stage of the Tour, at least she's the princess stage of the Pyranees:




  • Km 64.0 - CĂ´te de Capvern7.7 kilometre-long climb at 3.1% - category 4
  • Km 111.5 - Col des Ares (797 m)7.4 kilometre-long climb at 4.6% - category 2
  • Km 139.5 - Col de MentĂ© (1 349 m)6.9 kilometre-long climb at 8.1% - category 1
  • Km 184.0 - Port de Balès (1 755 m)11.7 kilometre-long climb at 7.7% - category H
  • Km 209.5 - Col de Peyresourde (1 569 m)9.7 kilometre-long climb at 7.8% - category 1
  • Km 214.5 - PEYRAGUDES (1 580 m)2.4 kilometre-long climb at 8.4% - category 2






Last edited by: devashish_paul: Jul 13, 17 10:55
Quote Reply
Re: TdF 12: Into the Pyranees....Froome vs Wounded Warrior Group [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Cue the reckless Contador attack in an unexpected-but-probably-should-have-expected-given-its-Contador type of place.

My guess is on the Col de Mente.
Last edited by: timbasile: Jul 12, 17 16:43
Quote Reply
Re: TdF 12: Into the Pyranees....Froome vs Wounded Warrior Group [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Group of 16 goes up the road with a mix of stage hunters and domestiques for the GC support. Sky exerts solid control until the Peyragudes.

Four guys from the break start the last climb with 6 minutes and it whittles down to the stage winner.

A couple of the GC contenders put in probing attacks to see if Froome is vulnerable, but he isn't and they ride a controlled tempo to the top. Two or three HC contenders gets dropped (Contador and Yates).

Everyone saves their remaining resources for Friday
Quote Reply
Re: TdF 12: Into the Pyranees....Froome vs Wounded Warrior Group [timbasile] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
I'm hoping contador does something, but I'm expecting something from Astana.
Sky is without Thomas, which is a fairly signicant loss.
Aru and Fulgsang should attack early and often tomorrow, see just how much Foorme has left.
It'd be great if C'dale makes a move to support Uran also. Time for Rolland and Talansky to show their form

res, non verba
Quote Reply
Re: TdF 12: Into the Pyranees....Froome vs Wounded Warrior Group [RoYe] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
RoYe wrote:
I'm hoping contador does something, but I'm expecting something from Astana.
Sky is without Thomas, which is a fairly signicant loss.
Aru and Fulgsang should attack early and often tomorrow, see just how much Foorme has left.
It'd be great if C'dale makes a move to support Uran also. Time for Rolland and Talansky to show their form

Will be interesting to see how banged up Fuglsang and Contador are and if they can have any impact. I feel everyone is downplaying Quintana. By week 3, everyone is on fried legs, rather than just him and the Giro guys. He may be more of a factor, but we'll see.

Do you think Talansky and Rolland can get in the early escape on the stage hunt, or will they hold them back to help Uran. I think the better strategy is to send them up the road with an option to drop back to Uran.
Quote Reply
Re: TdF 12: Into the Pyranees....Froome vs Wounded Warrior Group [RoYe] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
I'm hoping we could see something from George Bennett. He went into this tour stage hunting and stated that he was going to give up lots of time in order to do this...but he was one of the best of the rest in the last mountain stage, so will be interesting to see what he does.
Quote Reply
Re: TdF 12: Into the Pyranees....Froome vs Wounded Warrior Group [fulla] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
fulla wrote:
I'm hoping we could see something from George Bennett. He went into this tour stage hunting and stated that he was going to give up lots of time in order to do this...but he was one of the best of the rest in the last mountain stage, so will be interesting to see what he does.

That would be cool to see Bennett pull off a stage win here in the next 2 days! Pretty solid crew of 4 riders from NZ (more than Americans)....it's a shame that on the 150th year for Canada with the tour starting on our national birthday (July 1) we have zero riders this year :-(
Quote Reply
Re: TdF 12: Into the Pyranees....Froome vs Wounded Warrior Group [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
devashish_paul wrote:
RoYe wrote:
It'd be great if C'dale makes a move to support Uran also. Time for Rolland and Talansky to show their form

Do you think Talansky and Rolland can get in the early escape on the stage hunt, or will they hold them back to help Uran. I think the better strategy is to send them up the road with an option to drop back to Uran.
I'm afraid we'll have the Sky train controlling everything tomorrow with Froome giving it a go with 2 km to go.

But Rolland and/or Talansky getting in the break AND going for the stage win would be entertaining. Haven't seen anything from Talansky yet, and maybe he doesn't have anything to show.

I doubt that Uran would attack Froome with or without their support. Uran can simply mark Froome and if he has the legs he can be the one attacking in the final 2 km.



Some say "I can". Others say "I can't". Both manage to be correct.
Quote Reply
Re: TdF 12: Into the Pyranees....Froome vs Wounded Warrior Group [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
My prediction: Astana (Aru, Fuglsang) and Uran race against Bardet for 2nd again (just like they did in the Alps instead of trying to race for 1st). Froome is safe, they don't believe they can beat him (Bardet the only one trying).
Quote Reply
Re: TdF 12: Into the Pyranees....Froome vs Wounded Warrior Group [Diabolo] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Diabolo wrote:
My prediction: Astana (Aru, Fuglsang) and Uran race against Bardet for 2nd again (just like they did in the Alps instead of trying to race for 1st). Froome is safe, they don't believe they can beat him (Bardet the only one trying).

Aru needs to draw even by the end of the Pyranees to Froome. Then in the Alps he needs to take the Izouard uphill finish by at least 20 seconds and get the 10 second bonus. That puts him 30 seconds into the Marseille ITT. The Marseilles ITT is not totally unfavorable to Aru as it appears to have a short 1K climb at >10% out of the full 22K. Time wise that climb is 10% of of the TT where Aru can be on par for sure and should not lose too much on the descent. Same applies to Bardet. Bardet also has the Galibier descent to Serre Chevalier on the day before Izouard where he could make up time. Either way, my take is both Bardet and Aru have to exit the Pyranees in a tie with Froome to set up the Alps to come out in Yellow to have buffer for the ITT.

Basically Froome just needs to mark all these guys and wait for Marseilles. With Porte out, it changes the picture. None of these guys can ITT with Froome. When Porte was around, Froome would have not had the "play defense option". He would have had to attack (as he did at the top of Mont du Chat).

Having said all this, I don't think Froome will play defense and just wait for the ITT. He's going to pick places to attack and attack hard.
Quote Reply
Re: TdF 12: Into the Pyranees....Froome vs Wounded Warrior Group [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
devashish_paul wrote:
Basically Froome just needs to mark all these guys and wait for Marseilles.


Even more easy for him to do this when all of these guys (save Bardet) are actually working FOR him.
Quote Reply
Re: TdF 12: Into the Pyranees....Froome vs Wounded Warrior Group [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
devashish_paul wrote:
Diabolo wrote:
My prediction: Astana (Aru, Fuglsang) and Uran race against Bardet for 2nd again (just like they did in the Alps instead of trying to race for 1st). Froome is safe, they don't believe they can beat him (Bardet the only one trying).

Aru needs to draw even by the end of the Pyranees to Froome. Then in the Alps he needs to take the Izouard uphill finish by at least 20 seconds and get the 10 second bonus. That puts him 30 seconds into the Marseille ITT. The Marseilles ITT is not totally unfavorable to Aru as it appears to have a short 1K climb at >10% out of the full 22K. Time wise that climb is 10% of of the TT where Aru can be on par for sure and should not lose too much on the descent. Same applies to Bardet. Bardet also has the Galibier descent to Serre Chevalier on the day before Izouard where he could make up time. Either way, my take is both Bardet and Aru have to exit the Pyranees in a tie with Froome to set up the Alps to come out in Yellow to have buffer for the ITT.

Basically Froome just needs to mark all these guys and wait for Marseilles. With Porte out, it changes the picture. None of these guys can ITT with Froome. When Porte was around, Froome would have not had the "play defense option". He would have had to attack (as he did at the top of Mont du Chat).

Having said all this, I don't think Froome will play defense and just wait for the ITT. He's going to pick places to attack and attack hard.

Realistically, Aru is the only genuine threat to Froome at this stage.
I'm thinking he has the freshest legs of anyone, and we know he can climb, and he's won grand tours on his palmares.
Bardet would need a 3 minute lead on Froome going into the ITT to beat him and I cannot envisage that.
Uran would need something extraordinary to happen to take the yellow, in a race known for being predictable.

res, non verba
Quote Reply
Re: TdF 12: Into the Pyranees....Froome vs Wounded Warrior Group [RoYe] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
 

Realistically, Aru is the only genuine threat to Froome at this stage.

The problem is that we have already seen VERY clearly on Sunday that Aru is already just protecting his 2nd place and not actually trying to beat Froome.
So far Bardet is the only one that has been willing to give it a go and Challenge Sky, it hasn't worked thanks to the Sky duo of Aru/Fuglasang but at least he tried. which is much more then Astasky can say.

----------------------------
http://www.cyclewisecoaching.com
http://nowhelmet.com/
Quote Reply
Re: TdF 12: Into the Pyranees....Froome vs Wounded Warrior Group [trener1] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
trener1 wrote:


Realistically, Aru is the only genuine threat to Froome at this stage.

The problem is that we have already seen VERY clearly on Sunday that Aru is already just protecting his 2nd place and not actually trying to beat Froome.
So far Bardet is the only one that has been willing to give it a go and Challenge Sky, it hasn't worked thanks to the Sky duo of Aru/Fuglasang but at least he tried. which is much more then Astasky can say.

I think there is enough firepower between superdomestique Contador + Quintana + Dan Martin + Yates to make a break between these 4 men "stick" as Astasky sit around and watch each other. They would need to hope that Bardet hangs around with the Astasky GC group. The "outsiders" have to convince Contador that his best chance is a stage win, and use him like an old used car and get him to driven himself into the ground on the hope of passion and a stage win, until of course he explodes dramatically at which point Quintana keeps going in roboclimberdroid pulling along Martin and Yates with Yates and Martin taking turns to create a gap on Astasky. They just can't have Bardet with them or Astasky will shut them down. Friday's stage seems like the right one for the guy on the outside of the GC to gang up and make it happen. I think they can't have Uran in this group or it gets shut down instantly. But these guys need to get coordinated with each other and pick when this is happening and it has to happen from way out....like 2 mountains away from the finish, not the final climb. Don't forget that if Contador thinks passion can get him a stage win, he has Mollema, Pantano and also the old cat Haimar Zubeldia to help the cause it all this happens early enough. Zubeldia is way past his "best before" due date, but that guy can read enough races to make things happen...he's in his 16th TDF with 14 finishes already and 5 top 10's.
Quote Reply
Re: TdF 12: Into the Pyranees....Froome vs Wounded Warrior Group [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
this is the race, right here we will know who has been pretending and how much Froome will win by. conti is done, he just needs to walk away. Quintana has to take advantage of the summit finish if he wants to remain in this race. the break will be reeled in today, just too hard of a day.

Romans 1:16 "For I am not ashamed of the gospel, because it is the power of God that brings salvation to everyone who believes."
Quote Reply
Re: TdF 12: Into the Pyranees....Froome vs Wounded Warrior Group [Ron_Burgundy] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Froome victory lap at its best, yawn. Hopefully Bardet/Aru attack for 2nd place!
Quote Reply
Re: TdF 12: Into the Pyranees....Froome vs Wounded Warrior Group [ChrisC42780] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
About to get on plane, can you provide more details?
Quote Reply
Re: TdF 12: Into the Pyranees....Froome vs Wounded Warrior Group [littlefoot] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
watch the last 500 meters- the rest of the stage was boring.

Its a shame Dan Martin crashed on Sunday, he would be higher up.

We all need to officially stop mentioning Contador, he will be lucky to finish in top 10. Tinkoff was right about him last year.
Last edited by: ChrisC42780: Jul 13, 17 8:04
Quote Reply
Re: TdF 12: Into the Pyranees....Froome vs Wounded Warrior Group [littlefoot] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
What a finish! What an end to the stage!
Quote Reply
Re: TdF 12: Into the Pyranees....Froome vs Wounded Warrior Group [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Normally I would say yes, but this is part of Froome's plan, now his team does not need to control anymore.
Quote Reply
Re: TdF 12: Into the Pyranees....Froome vs Wounded Warrior Group [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
That's cold man!
Quote Reply
Re: TdF 12: Into the Pyranees....Froome vs Wounded Warrior Group [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Wow! Was that a crack? Fromme is broken on the final ramp up to the finish and loses some time. Are Aru and the others thinking - maybe we should have gone earlier?

What a great finale!


Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog
Quote Reply
Re: TdF 12: Into the Pyranees....Froome vs Wounded Warrior Group [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Froome just lost yellow. They climbed together but Aru pulled out in the last 1.5K. Aru is wearing yellow by 6 seconds. Looks like he's the best climber now but... there are not enough climb finishes for him to take more time on Froome. Froome probably takes it back in the TTT before Paris.
Quote Reply
Re: TdF 12: Into the Pyranees....Froome vs Wounded Warrior Group [Fleck] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
That last hew hundred meters was steep as hell, I had a feeling Aru/Bardet would get the stage. Froome struggles on something that steep. I wonder if Landa was allowed to go ahead?
Quote Reply
Re: TdF 12: Into the Pyranees....Froome vs Wounded Warrior Group [ChrisC42780] [ In reply to ]
Quote | Reply
Agree. I heard on the stages podcast that he was spinning on 38 by 32 the other day going up on the Alps... Probably not the combination he was at the end of this stage but no matter how crazy cadence he can put, a smaller gear than the rest on a finish is gonna cost him. Would be interesting to see what combo he was on in the last 1.5K because it looks like that's when he lost yellow.
Quote Reply

Prev Next