H- wrote:
Varying pace can cause the guy to burn more matches. But this is a two hour, two man race. What are you guys going to agree to do? Take turns for 1:45 hr? Anyone attacks and it is just a long time trial for both. You can't mess with him much with accelerations if you are in front because he can just ride his own pace -- you are equal and he can just time trial behind you. Also, if you are pulling, you're burning more matches than him anyway. If you mess with him too much varying the pace when you are pulling, then he can just slow down and say, "go, I'm not riding with you," and then time trial 30 M behind you. You can slow down, but he'll catch you and then you'll have to accelerate to catch him. Then where you going to go? Most of the time you'll both be equal and equipment won't matter if he's smart and doesn't let you mess with him. And then it will come down to the finish.
Your biggest advantage in this format is the finish if you are together. He's going to be committed to a fast pace finish. Because he can't accelerate as fast as you can from lower speeds, even if he's a bit stronger sprinter. So if you slow it down, he'll need to keep the speed up. He can't play the cat and mouse game where both racers slow down. If you happened to be a few hundred meters from finish and going 10 mph, you have a big advantage. If he's spent any time on a fixed gear he knows that and will be forced to keep pace high in finish. So 2-3 km from the finish slow down and make him take the lead, he has to keep the pace high, you can draft him, and maybe out sprint him if you time it right. Refuse to do any work in final kms. If we were together at the finish, I'd try to surprise you about 1-2 km from finish with a hard sprint and drop you before we got close. Then it will come down to who is stronger over 2km after two hours of riding. Somewhere before the finish he's going to have to drop you because he knows you will do no work and he can't force you to do it by slowing down himself. If anywhere 10 km from finish he were dumb enough to slow down to make you lead, you can do easy sprint attack knowing his cost to catch you (he has to catch you now) is going to be greater and then when he catches you, slow, and get on his wheel.
Of course, equal fitness does not mean equal race strengths. Who's the better sprinter? Who is better at time trial? Even with same FTP, is one of you better at 30 min? All these might work into tactics.
Unless he's a much better sprinter than you, just stay behind him and wait for the finish. As mentioned, he needs to lead out at a fairly good speed, so he really can't play cat and mouse to force you to the front.
You can basically draft him the whole race, and if he slows down too much he's vulnerable to attacks. Plus the gear you can turn at a reasonable rpm for 2hrs. is not the gear you want for the final 200m.
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