Don't set goals on specific bike times down to the minute. That's a recipe for failure. If there's a strong headwind or you have some other issue and you try to bike to a specific time and overdo it just because of a time goal, that's bad strategy. Bike to the percentage of proven FTP and what time it is, it is. And setting goals based on races two years ago is chasing a ghost. Also, you're getting too sucked in to trying to figure out everything about the numbers without the experience of seeing them first for a while. Be patient, observe, and learn as you go.

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Zen and the Art of Triathlon. Strava Workout Log
Interviews with Chris McCormack, Helle Frederikson, Angela Naeth, and many more.
http://www.zentriathlon.com

I know this chart shouldn't be taken to the minute and I should maybe look at it as a "ballpark" figure. So, should I assume these charts are based off the assumption of flat and windless? Is it NP or AP?

I see the numbers and I observe this charts floating around. I also read and hear that having a power meter is great for pacing. I even read about Best Bike Split allowing me to get an idea of how I can do on race day. It's not making sense from what is on the chart and what I rode.

I think the times are there as an input into the TSS formula. So if you have an idea of how long you might be riding, you can adjust accordingly. Obviously, the longer you will ride, the higher your TSS, all else equal. Your best bet would be to use BBS to get an estimate for how long that might be. But as mentioned above, if you show up and there's a stiff headwind all day, you'll have to adjust accordingly.

Per the Intensity Factor note in the graph, it is using NP. Here's a link to a more detailed explanation of TSS and the calculation.

1. How are you coming up with the projected time? Best Bike Split? WAG? Without doing any modeling, 21.27mph seems pretty quick to me for 164 normalized watts unless your incredibly light and aero.

IF and TSS for that matter are based on normalized power not average power.



So it's looking like you either won't be nearly ar fast as you'd like to be or you'll way over bike and have a potentially not too enjoyable walk instead of run. TSS for a 1/2 IM should be kept under 200 if not under 190. How was your run the year you biked in 2:43?


Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

I agree. There is something definitely majorly different between what you rode before and what you're looking at now. Either the hills are more of a factor than you think, or your bike/gear/position/clothing drag is a lot slower, or there is more wind. Or a combo of all of those. My training rides with a regular helmet, gloves, and shitty tires with a looser jersey are always significantly slower than my race times at the same watts. That's why you shouldn't focus on the past and/or avg speed because you can't replicate it. That's why people preach watts. They are simply the work you are doing, nothing extra to complicate things.

Remember, you never hear of pros trying to hit a particular bike mph. It's a losing game. They either ride by watts or by reacting strategically to what their competition is doing. Do what the fast people do and you'll have your best race.

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Zen and the Art of Triathlon. Strava Workout Log
Interviews with Chris McCormack, Helle Frederikson, Angela Naeth, and many more.
http://www.zentriathlon.com

I just grabbed it from the left column. Ran my finger to the IF I felt comfortable and it showed me TSS 169.



It was an OK run. I had to walk through the stations to catch my breath.

I will have to check out the elevation profile of the race course and what I rode over the weekend. I was in training gear and it was windy towards the end. I just didn't think it would make that big of a difference. Very interesting.

Houston we have a problem;) It sounds as if you're putting the cart before the horse. You don't start by picking the time for the ride. You start by looking at what sort of time riding IF of .80 might give and then what TSS that would generate. It it's over ~190 then you start again with a slightly lower IF, say .68 and recalculate until you come up with a combo platter that give you the appropriate TSS. The time will be a result of riding the wattage you find gives this TSS. You can use Best Bike Split as a way to estimate how fast you should be going at a specific wattage or real data like you did with you 18mph ride. It sound like you'll e going slower than the 21.26mph you were hoping for.

How have you gone about finding your FTP? What power meter do you use? Do you set the zero offset each ride?

Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Oh, there is so much that makes a difference. Here's most of the list -

• Clothing
• Tires
• Tire pressure
• inner tube type
• Bike position (biggest factor)
• Helmet
• Drivetrain filth
• Gloves/no gloves
• Shaved legs and even arms
• Hills
• Pavement type
• Wind
• Humidity
• Temperature
• Effectiveness of effort
• Wheels
• Exposed cabling
• Axle bearings
• Bottle shape, size, count, and position.

And there's lots more. Some are tiny, some big. As they add up, 1 to 4 mph easily becomes a reality. Focus on watts in training and race day and you can switch between training gear and race gear without a second thought. But you have to let go of MPH in training having anything to do with racing first. You have a watt meter - believe in it... as long as it's calibrated correctly. ;)

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Zen and the Art of Triathlon. Strava Workout Log
Interviews with Chris McCormack, Helle Frederikson, Angela Naeth, and many more.
http://www.zentriathlon.com

someone correct me if i am wrong, but i dont think you are using the chart appropriately. the chart does not estimate your time. it estimates your TSS based on your time. so you need to figure out about what you will ride in terms of time--then you can figure out what TSS that equates to at various levels of intensity. I.e. an 80% IF doesnt equal a certain time. assuming other variables are equal, someone with a 300 FTP at 80% is going to ride much faster than someone at 200 FTP at 80%. so someone riding at 240 watts (80% of 300) may be around a 2:30 split--there tss would be 161. the person with an FTP of 200 riding at 80% would ride at 160 watts. that might be a 2:50 split (making these #s up), that person's tss would be about 183.

so riding at 164 watts it may or may not be feasible to hit a 2:38 at 80% IF.

Another thing that you're failing to consider is what was your run like after that 21 mph bike? If it wasn't amazing, then you're trying to beat a bike time that was too hard of an effort anyway. And that's why your TSS scores don't match up. The chart is trying to show you your best possible scenario. Maybe your race two years ago was overbiked and now comparing to that is showing the discrepancy.

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Zen and the Art of Triathlon. Strava Workout Log
Interviews with Chris McCormack, Helle Frederikson, Angela Naeth, and many more.
http://www.zentriathlon.com

Yes, you are correct.

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

I'm following the "How to Use the Table" in this link. http://home.trainingpeaks.com/...-meter-in-an-ironman

On the left side of the table find your goal bike time. By looking to the right of the goal time and in your color-coded category you’ll see a range of one to four TSS numbers. Then by glancing up to the top row for both ends of this colored range you’ll see what your IF should be throughout the race. Then you simply ride in that IF range on race day and—voila!—you have your optimal bike time and are ready to actually run the marathon.


I did a 20 minute test on a trainer, rested for a day and did a 5 minute test on a trainer. I then plugged in those numbers in a critical power calculator and gave me an FTP. Should I do the test outdoors?

Hang with me guys. I will have that "a-ha" light bulb moment.

It's writing passages like this that make me wonder who Training Peaks has writing some of these articles. I see how you interpreted what they have said but I stand by my explanation. The chart is not useful in deciding how fast you will be going at a certain wattage. You can only find that by testing yourself or estimating via a program like Best Bike Split with a self test being more reliable unless you've got your CdA nailed down. Once you have figured out your speed at specific wattages, then you'll be able to make some use of the chart.

Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Joe Friel wrote this one. I appreciate you taking the time to dumb it down for me. I'll check out best bike split.

No worries. As you can see it's a bit more complex than "pick a goal". You're trying to find an appropriate IF that you'll be able to ride for the time it will take at that wattage to complete the distance and not be too tired to run well. So say for example if 164 watts only gives you 17.5 mph then it would take you 3 hours 18 minutes for 56 miles. .8^2 = .64 X 100 = 64 TSS per hour at that wattage. 3.29 hours X 64= 210 TSS so a bit high and based on that you might need to ride even a lesser wattage.

As others have said, the testing must be done in good race kit....tight jersey, aero helmet if that's what you will use. race wheels, race position....... and on a similar course in terms of road smoothness, climbs and wind.

Hugh

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

I just race bikes now so take everything i say with a grain of salt, but i did put in a few sub 2:20 rides at the 70.3 distance before switching over to road racing.

You have a FTP, this is your fitness baseline to determine your training zones. So you can hold 205 for 1 hour, then your threshold zone is around 180-205, in general people will suggest you hold around .80-.90 of your FTP depending on your particular fitness. With a 205FTP i am assuming you are a newer cyclist and i would target .80. That would then suggest a target wattage of 165. The reason a stronger cyclist can target .90% of FTP is that you might only be riding for 2:10 compared to your hopeful 2:40, that is 30 more minutes of riding time.

In general i would not base my pacing on TSS. TSS is incredibly useful for tracking general fitness, fatigue, and training to some specific demands but not for pacing. For example i am targeting the state road race champs here this year and know that the race will be around 320-350TSS. I know this because i have done the race before, know the general flow of the race, and how it tends to play out. Therefore i do not care about knocking out 90 mile rides or 5 hours, i am more concerned with targeting 325-350 TSS to simulate that kind of fatigue. But i can accomplish that goal a number of ways. I can ride zone 2 steady for 6 hours and get 350TSS or i can hammer with a group and be done in 4 hours. Or 5 hours with 4 hours easy and 1 hour of intervals.

So bringing this all back around to your goals i would just train as much as possible, lots of zone 2 with some race specific intervals and at least once a week hard FTP intervals (4x8, 3x10,3x15, 2x20 etc). Then test your FTP again, use that number to calculate a goal pace. Then try out that goal pace on a ride, say 3x30 at goal pace and see how it feels. Assuming you are good to go with that pace you have now nailed down your target wattage and then pace according to what you have established. Your time is what it is.