You are right, everything in life and racing is risk reward, but when it comes to tires if there is a 1/1000 chance your day is done because of tire selection versus 2/1000. Even though you are twice as likely to have your day cut short, the overall risk is still relatively low. Fwiw, I would disagree that many elites #1: answer question #2 have a lot of experience and knowledge #3 chase prs
Regardless of whether you are or new or old, the most important thing is to evaluate your goals. Just because you are new doesn't mean you necessary want to be slow, and just because you are old doesn't mean you want to be fast. If the OP is extremely risk adverse and just finish I would question changing anything for a race day setup as it just introduces more risk.
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