You should have no problem. I feel that I would struggle to hit those paces, and I have run under 1:30 on a variety of courses. A little advice though for race day:

Ensure your goal pace on your watch is a few ticks per mile below what would equate to a 1:29:59 to account for the course. Nothing worse than seeing 13.1 hit on your watch, under 1:30, but you still have 500 yds to go, etc.
I would strive to evenly pace the race as well. I think you should just get out there and try to run 13 6:45 minute miles. If you are feeling good in the last 5K, kick it up.

Good luck!

Your running sounds about where mine is, I bet you could probably could go 1:27/1:28, esp if you are training 15 hr/week, meaning you should have a really wide base.

How did you feel after your last mile repeat at 5:5x? Gassed?

My $.02, seems like with your base and if you hit workouts like that without dying, I wouldn't be surprised if u could hold 6:45 over the course of a half marathon.

If you're running those paces in training unrested then you should* easily go sub 40 for 10k and closer to 18min for 5k.

My advice is start targeting some tempo pace work at about that 4min/km pace 6-12k runs cause I think in a rested state come raceday you'll be nudging that 1.24 mark.

I felt like I could've gone on to do at least 3 more. And to clarify, I only run around 6 hours a week, I cycle 7 hours a week, and swim 2 hours a week.

I really think you got it. I would say even below 1:29 comfortably and in the same weather conditions your training paces occurred. Let us know. Run smart.

Agree with the previous posters, you should be there. As you are rather young, you might be relatively faster than most of the older guys here on shorter distances.

Do a couple of longer runs in standard speed (1.5h in 5min/km) followed by intervals above race pace (ie 3x1km @4min/km). That should get you there for sure.

Roberto

If you leisurely run 12 miles in 1:30, I don't see why you couldn't tack on another 1.1 miles at race pace in that time. Although your leisurely pace and tempo pace are closer than I think they should be, so one of those paces isn't accurate effort.

The tempo run included my two warm up miles. They caused the average to go up. So i guess in reality it was a 6 mile tempo run at 6:45 pace.

My N=1 of the first time breaking 1:30. I was coming off a season of sprint an olympic tri's and working out ~8 hours a week between RBS (I think I was doing ~25mpw running). I decided to drop everything (except mountain biking) to focus on seeing how well I could run a half. Prior to this my best (and only) open half was a 1:36.

I followed the "BarryP Plan" for 12ish weeks building up from 25 mph to 40 mph. I think I did 2 weeks that were >40 and 6 that were 35-40. My long runs were between 10 and 13 miles (paces of the runs were 7:20-7:50 minute miles). I did speed workouts once a week which was a ~3 mile tempo run (with a 3 mile WU and 3 mile CD) at a 6-6:30 pace. The short runs were >8 min/mile and the other medium run was usually around 7:30 min/mile. I did one race during the build which was a 17:50 5K

On race day my plan was to take it out at a 7 min/mile pace, but I got caught up in excitement and started off at a 6:30 pace. I came through the 10k mark in under 41 minutes. I was a little worried that I was going to blow up, but I felt really good so I kept things rolling. I ended up finishing in just under 1:24.

So long story short, my recommendation is to spend the next few weeks slowly increasing your run volume and not worry too much about speed. Drop biking and swimming for a bit and get 6 runs a week in.

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Matt

Second what everyone else says. Absent horrible weather on race day your new goal is 1:25! Others will have better advice than I do in terms of training, but as long as you keep the consistency up and hit a few longer runs beforehand you should have this in the bag IMHO.

i must have shit endurance. I can run a 19:02 5km, but havent gone under 1hr30 for a half mara.

Yeah what everyone else says, you are there already. I am 48, 190 lbs and my PR's for 5k and 10k are about where your training runs are and I ran a 1:29:15 on a hilly and windy race earlier this year. Go out there and bust out that 1:25!

Mostly echoing others here. Unless your endurance really drops off at that distance, your current paces indicate you should be comfortably sub-90. I say pace it for 1:29 and you'll have no difficulty at all (you can probably do better than that, but I'd say leave that for a subsequent race once you have a better handle on how this one goes).

Although your leisurely pace and tempo pace are closer than I think they should be, so one of those paces isn't accurate effort.

I was gonna say the same thing. IMO, 7:30 is not really a "leisure" pace. I would peg the leisure pace around 8:00+, but to each his own.

FWIW, some people find it takes more effort to run 'slower' than they do to just run at a nice comfortable clip. I'm certainly in that boat. Anything above 5:00/km feels terrible, and takes serious effort to avoid form breakdown...whereas if I do my easy recovery runs at 4:45/km if feels effortless. Sometimes you have to go with what your body tells you is 'easy' and not what the calculators say.

My thoughts exactly ! Your speed is there ! Stretch some runs out to 15 miles with a solid 6-7 in there at 6:55-6:50 . You hit that then on rested legs it shouldn't be an issue and you may have to set a loftier goal ! Best wishes ! Go crush 1:30!

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Big Sexy Racing 2018

Put a heart rate monitor on and you'll see it's not just the calculators that say it's the easy pace, your body will tell you also that your "leisure" pace is to quick. I'm not talking about :15/km though. If he's worried about running a half and holding 6:51/mi he should be going much slower than 7:30 for a leisure/recovery pace. For reference I'm in the low 1:20s for a half and my recovery pace is about 8:30/mi. Jesse Thomas wrote a good article recently about taking your easy days easy, so you can go hard on the hard days. That's what's worked for me. Kill myself on intervals a couple times a week, then really recover on the recovery runs.

All I can say is that I do wear an HRM, know exactly what my Z1 and Z2 levels are, and my HM time is comparable to yours. Running at 5:15/km (roughly what 8:30/mi is) is downright uncomfortable and difficult for me - it makes me feel like I'm braking. Maybe I should try to cultivate that range, but that wasn't my point.

If you ran 3.10 miles on the road in 19:02 then it is almost impossible to imagine you cannot run 13.1 in less than 90 minutes (I did say almost!).

Details of your half marathon attempts would be interesting. Let's hear 'em...

Dude, if you did this then you will EASILY go under 1:26.

I'll bite. I've got a 5k PR of 19:08 very near my attempt at sub-1:30.

I focused my training and race pacing for a 1:29 flat. Things were going really good till about mile 10 when I hit a rough patch for about 3/4 of a mile. Once I recovered and got going at pace again it was a fight to get to the line. I rounded the corner into the finish straight and was about 200 yards from the finish when I noticed the race clock click over 1:30. Knowing that my chip time was only a couple of seconds off the clock time, I was "defeated" and shut things down till the end and finished in 1:30:29. I figure if I would have kept on the gas my best possible outcome would have been about a 1:30:15. Oh well.

All of my half marathon's before and after that have been in the 1:33 to 1:35 range. Leading into that sub-1:30 attempt was my most serious run training ever. Since then I haven't put in the same kind of work from a speed and tempo perspective. I've logged more miles but not as intense.

Same. 8:30 is a death march and I feel worse after running at that pace than 45 seconds quicker. I'm probably a little slower than both of you (1:27 HM and 18:35 5k) and most of the calculators put my easy pace between 7:15-8:30. Right in the middle of that range is what feels most natural to me. When I go for an easy run and don't look at my watch, I almost always end up somewhere between 7:35-8:10/mi.

By "leisure run" I assume the OP was referring to his easy pace not a recovery pace, since most people don't do 12 mile recovery runs.

how much was your weekly running volume? What were the conditions of the 13.1? Was the half-mary time indicative of your fitness?

I ran a really crumby half marathon at the Woodlands in maybe 2014 but it was like 70 and 95% humidity.

to be honest i have only attempted two stand alone halfs. First one, half of it was on a beach in hurricane weather and i had the runners trots so had a loo stop haha. That was within a block of training and i ran that in 1:33:xx.....second one recently i ran out of glycogen - im a type one diabetic, i just wanted to hold 4:30km pace which was very doable. Felt fine, got to 50mins into the race and wanted to take on some nutrition but couldnt because my blood sugar was too high. Thus, i literally emptied the glycogen stores, turned to fat as a fuel and slowed up to 5min km pace and finished in 1:38. I thought i could see out 1hr30 without nutrition, but something happened where i went directly from 4:30 pace and steady to a sharp decline to 5min pace all within minutes. My training peaks pace graph looks like a classic bonk. I dont do much running beyond an hour anymore, im all sprints these days anyway. It left me pissed off since i ran 1hr38 in my very first half ironman run.