I'm going w/ YES you can. I predict 19:02 if you don't go sub-6 in the first mile.

You're shooting for 6:15 pace and you clearly have the speed to do it. Not an expert, but my best 5k's have felt like this:

• Mile 1 - Holy crap. I'm going too slow. My watch must be broken. This doesn't feel like sub-6 minute pace...
• Mile 2 - Ouch. I went out way to fast. No way I'm going to be able to hold this pace for the rest of the race.
• Mile 3 - This sucks. Why the F did I sign up for this race? I would so much rather be running a 1/2 marathon right now.
• Mile 3.01 - 3.1. This course is wrong. These assholes are trying to kill me! I have to be done by now.

Have fun out there!

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/kj

http://kjmcawesome.tumblr.com/

Let me just predict that someone will be along soon enough to say, "5K? Just go all out". This, of course, is not possible, since you can go "all out" for about 100 meters or so. But I have seen these responses enough to know they are coming.

Yes, I think you can go sub 19:30. Good luck.

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"Honestly, triathlon is a pussified version of duathlon on that final run."- Desert Dude

I plan on the last mile @ puke pace... so we'll see.

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@floathammerholdon | @partners_in_tri

If those are honest paces from your pyramid you should have no issues going way under 19 if you have any sort of run base.
I say start at 6:00 pace and try to hold it

Warm up thoroughly...at a minimum jog the entire course, finishing up with about 10 min to go, then do a half dozen 100m strides building up to close to race pace, ending at most just a few minutes before the start. As someone else suggested, do not run the first mile under 6 minutes. Yes, you can break 19:30 assuming the course is flat.

X2 - Well said ^^^^^^^^^^^^^

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Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.

Once into your pace, if you can, slide in behind someone of equal pace and draft draft draft! then in the final .1 pass them with everything you have left and don't look back for anything.

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The secret of a long life is you try not to shorten it.
-Nobody

You run about the same 6 mile pace as I was earlier this year and I ran a 19:28, so I think its definitely possible.

I went out at 6:15 and held it for each mile. If I could do it again, I'd probably start out at 6:20-6:30 and then negative split each mile after.

.......because the picture of them giving you 2 middle fingers will end up on the Internet later for all to see.

Seriously though my vote is for 6:00 and go for it.

Hillarious! These were my exact thoughts last night when I ran a 5k at 'race pace' lol. Well, except for the sub-6 part and the 1/2 marathon part, I only managed 9min/mile ;)

go all out until you can't anymore, then just hang on.

is that better? ;)

I recall a study that you might find on this site. It involved female college level runners if I remember correctly. The conclusion was that going out fast and then hanging on got better results than even pace or negative splits. Not the result that I would have expected.

That's how I race 5Ks, and kind of how I race 10Ks. I don't really bother looking at a watch to see if I ran faster than the last mile...that takes too much energy when you're going that hard.

Going out fast is fine and certainly not "all out", which was warned against at the top.

That's pretty much it, stand alone 5K or sprint tri :)

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Rodney
TrainingPeaks | Altra Running | RAD Roller
http://www.goinglong.ca

Looks like you should be in good shape going in. Agree with the comments above as far as how the race should play out if you do it smart rather than balls out right from the gun. I used to race 5k's and would go hard in the first mile but not completely full tilt - you'll find out who's legit in the race after the first mile as the ones that blew their load early are already losing speed by then. I also think miles 2-2.5 are tough where if you are in contention, the pace is being pushed to try to shake a few more people loose. The last stretch is completely redline to the finish. 5k's can hurt like hell but are also a lot of fun.

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"You can never win or lose if you don't run the race." - Richard Butler

If you can do that 400-800-1200-1200-800-400 workout holding 5:45 pace, I don't see why you can't run sub 18:30.
On the other hand, if you can hold 5:45 for that workout, I don't see why you can't hold 6:15ish for the 6 mile tempo either.

Either way sub 20 should be easy.

Nice! I might do a 5k for fun on Sat. and will give this pacing strategy a try. I've always gone out a bit fast, but might try to slay the negative split beast. Though it depends what time I want to target. I'd love to set a PR since I'm a lot more fit than the last time I raced one.

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TrainingBible Coaching
http://www.trainingbible.com

with that track workout i would definitely go at around 6:00-6:06 pace first 2 miles. the negative split stuff will never result in fastest possible time and if thats what ends up happening then you didnt warm up enough. this time of year you better have a "light glow" before you toe the line.

Don't get me wrong, that tempo workout was tough... It wasn't like I was ready to jump on the bike.

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@floathammerholdon | @partners_in_tri

30 second sprint to speed, rest of mile 6:00 minute pace, Second mile 5:50 pace, Third mile 5:45 pace, 0.1 Finish make it looks easy, you should in theory be able to go sub 19:30 easy.

Based on this limited data, I would shoot for 6:00 miles. It also depends on the terrain. If its a flat course, I would go for even pacing. Do your first mile at 6:00. You're gonna know if you went out too hard around 1.5 miles. It's gonna feel like you went out too hard either way by mile 2, because that's just how a 5k is. However, I would bet that you can hold that 6:00 pace, maybe even improve on it. 5k is a race that its ok to go out harder on because people often don't go out hard enough.

I'm not a great runner, but if it helps any, here is my last 5k race file: http://www.strava.com/activities/161461103 I think we're in the same ballpark.

If it hurts you're not running fast enough... eyes need to bleed or its not a 5k.

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Is this your first open 5k? If so, I'll be the guy to offer the unconventional advice: just go race, but pay attention to how you feel throughout and learn from the experience.

Your times indicate good fitness, so if this is not your specialty and not a big goal race, what do you have to lose?

Go out easy and save enough for a big finish. Or go out with the leaders for 800m and learn what it feels like to detonate and recover all in the same race. Or just go out and run steady 6:15 pace. Or...

Just so long as you apply the lessons you learn, I don't think you can go wrong.

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Eliot
blog thing - strava thing