Because we have too many dentists in here that skew the numbers with their over priced bikes. They must keep up with the latest bike fads to impress their fellow dentists on their coffee rides.

Your poll asks what people WANT on their NEXT bike vs what did you actually pay for on your the bike you currently own.

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/kj

http://kjmcawesome.tumblr.com/

I would also guess that "preferred" versus "actually use" is different. The poll, to me, seemed like hypothetical of what I would use if I had my choice but the bike counts are what people are actually using and obviously doesn't always reflect what they want based on newer technology.

ah. okay. so, the poll is saying that SRAM/shimano is 50/50, when in reality ownership is closer to 90/10 or 85/15 or something like that. if the slowtwitch poll is reflective of the worldwide market - which it is not, but let's just say it is for the sake of argument - that either:

1. value is found in OE spec, and shimano rules OE spec in tri bikes, so, there you go, that explains it.
2. something else.

which is it, do you think?

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

#2. ETap

but that isn't reflected in the actual bike counts. are you saying:

A. etap the preferred system, it's just that you can't afford it?
B. the poll is ahead of what people are actually using? they haven't had a chance to buy the new tri bike yet?

i ask because i can appreciate that a lot of people can't afford electronic, but even the electronic bike counts show a big preference for shimano. so, i can only assume that:

1. the poll is a leading rather than trailing indicator;
2. OE spec trumps user preference;
3. something else.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

That's really not an apples to apples comparison. The poll asks "want". So the way I would think of it is "if you are given a choice between Dura Ace DI2 or SRAM eTap" ?

In the real world:
1) How many of the Shimano DI2 are Ultegra DI2? SRAM eTap currently has no equivalently priced groupset. That's not even considering that Shimano DI2 groups were really cheap if imported from UK.
2) How many bikes were purchased last year? Where people even have a choice of DI2 vs. eTap? SRAM etap (especially with tri-setup) simply hasn't been out for that long.

To have an apples to apples comparison. you really oughta:
1) Only count bikes purchased /upgraded last year
2) Only count dura ace DI2 vs. SRAM etap
3) Exclude people who bought Shimano groupsets for cheap from oversea retailers

what i'm asking is what explains the difference between "want" and "eventually purchase." i think you gave one real-world reason: if you part up your bike from scratch UK mail order gives you preferable pricing, while SRAM's price control does not. is that the main reason?

otherwise, i think if you look at my last post, you also point to a second reason: the poll from 6 months ago was a leading rather than a trailing indicator, and reality hasn't yet caught up with the poll.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

I am also saying that you have to exclude Ultegra DI2 (which I assume is on many tri-bikes). Even at full MSRP or OE spec, an Ultegra DI2 group is cheaper than eTap. Value rules. Until SRAM has something that competes with Ultegra DI2 on price. DI2 will always win.

eTAP sits in the middle of the 2 shimano groups. ultegra di2 is between $1000 and $1500 just for a shift kit upgrade from mechanical to electronic. eTAP is $1500 to $1600. dura ace di2 is from $2000 to $2500. this, the last time i checked, and this is if you factor in UK mail order into the U.S.

so, for those on real tight budget yes, you can get it cheaper with ultegra di2, but not that much cheaper.

i'm building up a bike right now and it's no question what i'm using: shimano. but that's because it's a test mule and i need to test a lot of different products and among the products is every which sort of way you might want to use a non-round ring and there's just little question in my mind that shimano affords much better and more reliable FD electronic shifting if i'm putting Q rings (for example) on the bike.

but i'm building up another bike for somebody else, a 1x tri bike, and this is going to be SRAM, because i think SRAM does 1x mechanical nicely. i may in the end use a shimano cassette on that bike if SRAM hasn't come out with anything bigger than a 36t cog for standard (not XD driver) cassettes, but otherwise it'll be a SRAM bike.

pardon the digression, but you guys are going to love my test mule ;-)

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

TBH- I don't know a hill of beans versus the differences between shimano, sram, or campy. I got whatever came with the bike. Therefore, I think your original poll is skewed towards people who know and care about such things, meaning there might be lots who didn't respond. The latter poll is just a state of being, making it easier to tabulate.

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Take a short break from ST and read my blog:
http://tri-banter.blogspot.com/

ah. much of the delta between actual and theoretical is explained by the folks who are truly ambivalent about groupkits and shift systems. don't know. don't care. don't want to care. this is what you're saying?

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

I think #1 is a huge part of it. To many of the ST hardcore, buying a bare frame and building to suit, or buying a complete bike, partially stripping it, and rebuilding with components they like, is no big deal. I'd venture a guess, though, that even at an Ironman, a majority of competitors are running on the drivetrain that was the o.e. spec on the complete bike they purchased.


Some possible #2 factors.

• People may prefer eTap, but hesitate when it comes time to actually pay for eTap since it's still only available in the high-end Red group line. Ultegra Di2 is the undisputed electronic shifting value play. I'd venture to say that anybody with UDi2 would prefer to have either Dura Ace Di2 or Red eTap, but economics drove them to their second or third preference. We hear eTap will eventually come down market, but SRAM seems to be happy right now to keep it rarified. (Side note, would be interesting to know the ratio of eTap Red to Dura Ace Di2 in those counts; I'd bet SRAM looks a lot better in that comparison)
• I think a lot of people are enamoured with the idea of SRAM 1x, but, when it comes time to actually commit, a nagging memory of some ass-kicking climb at some race they did once somewhere causes them to balk. I want to be powerful enough and versatile enough to ride with SRAM 1x, and ~80% of the time, it would probably work splendidly for me. ~17% of the time, however, I'd be lamenting the loss of single-tooth steps between gears, and 3% of the time I'd be cursing my stupid ass for getting rid of the FD and small ring.
• You took this survey only 6 months ago. How many people have replaced, or even upgraded the drivetrain on, their triathlon bike in that time? For that matter, how many have turned over their tri bikes/drivetrains since SRAM launched eTap? It hasn't even been on the market for 2 years yet. The bikes in a current triathlon transition area are more a reflection of what preferences people had (and compromises they were willing to make) in the market landscape of 2012-2015, not necessarily what they'd like to do today.

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"They're made of latex, not nitroglycerin"

Let's agree to disagree. A saving of $100-500 is significant in my books.




Add in OE side of things. A factory spec'ed Ultegra DI2 is usually much cheaper than a factory spec'ed SRAM etap build (which will also come with full red components and better wheels). Speaking of which... Is there any manufacture that specs eTap with force components to bring overall price down? I can get a Felt IA4 with Ultegra DI2 for $5k, but IA 1 w/ etap comes $11k.

I think #1 is probably accurate. With regards to eTap, it probably hasn't had enough time to penetrate just yet and it also lacks an Ultegra price equivalent. My mechanic (works at Orange Cycle Orlando, fairly high volume store) recently told me that in the last six months if he builds a bike for a triathlete or roadie it's almost always eTap and rarely Di2.

You're only looking at this from a "build from scratch" or "upgrade" position. Look at the price difference between complete tri bikes with o.e. equipped UDi2 and, when you can find one, Etap Red. You're talking $3-$5000. Yeah, there's usually a commensurate difference in other components, but that's a price gulf many just aren't willing or able to cross no matter how much they'd prefer eTap.

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"They're made of latex, not nitroglycerin"

no i'm not. i've written a number of times in the thread that a very real reason for the disparity are the original equipment choices of bike makers. i suspect the difference in the raw cost between ultegra and dura ace di2 versus eTAP is roughly similar, that eTAP is a bit more than ultegra but a fair bit less than dura ace. it's just the shift system i'm talking about. i don't see any reason why you couldn't pair the eTAP shift system with cheaper stuff (cranks, cassette, chain brakes, etc.).

i'm not advocating for eTAP, i'm just trying to understand where the market is, so that i can charge a bunch of money and seem a smart guy when manufacturers and retailers listen to me pontificate on the state of the market.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

Well, you can if you do it yourself. But the bike companies haven't seen fit to do anything other than put it on ultra-premium builds. You can get UDi2 oe spec'd on a "name brand" triathlon bike in the 3-$5000 range, while Etap, when available, is generally only being spec'd on bikes tri bikes over $8000.

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"They're made of latex, not nitroglycerin"

I think Slowman's numbers are way off, or he's going by MSRP which everyone knows skews the actual figures a bunch.

But to the original poster's point, the numbers mean nothing when it comes to two polls since it's want vs get, and a moderately small selection size. Would love to results on 9150 vs eTap now that both are fully available and roughly the same actual price.

right. no doubt. but does it have to be that way?

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

i went through it pretty comprehensively. happy to concede my error. just, i went thru it part by part, and not by MSRP, rather by street price.

mind, i just went through shift systems. i think one reason why SRAM might be placed on higher priced end products is because it's typically the entire RED groupkit. why can't a SRAM shift system only be put on a tri bike?

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

Makes me wonder, does SRAM demand a certain minimum MSRP for an eTap build? Or are there minimum matching component grade requirements? Or is it maybe just a matter of SRAM limiting supply to the o.e. channel, and the bike makers moderating demand by only installing eTap on high-end builds (and taking a tidy gross profit along the way). But then you go to bikesdirect.com and see that they have Motobecane road bikes with the full Red 22 eTap drivetrain (derailleurs, brifters, cranks, chain, cassette) for under $3000 and it kind of blows at least two of those three theories out the window.

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"They're made of latex, not nitroglycerin"

i don't know. i doubt it's the minimum matching component grade, because that might be close to what SRAM sued shimano for doing in the 90s (i'm not sure). i'm sure that all component companies want you to pair the high end electronic shifting components to the cranks, chain rings, chains, cogs that are made for the purpose. shimano wants that, but shimano doesn't always get that. i'll ask SRAM about this.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

there are another two reasons i can think of:

- availability - SRAM etap has been unavaiable for big part of the year; finding replacement singles in case of a crash or failure is also a hassle

- if you look at OEM spec of bikes SRAM etap is much harder to find - also note SRAM does not have a direct mount brakes for roadies


...and lastly; what you mentioned. Price control. I used to buy Sram cassettes for my bikes but no more - I cant justify price difference of sometimes close to 100% of shimano.

PS. I do own etap on my p5 - with bar end shifting being the main reason i went with sram