Realistic FTP Gains

Jul 23, 14 11:11

Post #1 of 45 (15621 views)

Been having a great season but I wanted to ensure I keep up my winning ways come next year when I go from Sprint to Olympic distances. My current FTP is 202w and I'm a 145lbs rider with an extremely healthy diet and recovery regime. Over the course of the winter I plan on putting in some heavy training on the turbo trainer in an attempt to up my FTP and Endurance.

I've only been a cyclist for 1 year so I've never had any serious winter biking programs before. I'm curious what I can expect from some hard work and suffering. Obviously it will vary from person to person but are their any standard expectations one should set? I don't want to go in thinking a 12 week program is going to take me from 200w to 300w if it's not obtainable. I will also have some gains in the 12 weeks leading up to the race season as well so total will be 24 weeks (12 of cycle specific) to work with.

Any thoughts are welcomed and encouraged.

------
"Train so you have no regrets @ the finish line"

Re: Realistic FTP Gains [cshowe80] [ In reply to ]

Jul 23, 14 11:19

Post #2 of 45 (15603 views)

hey, that's a really good question.

I started my training with power in July 2013 and was test at 215 FTP.
By the time I raced Ironman Florida in November 2013, I was at 235 FTP without any VO2 workouts.
I am racing Ironman Lake Placid this weekend, and my FTP is estimated to be 270.

I think realistically, you can gain about 25-30% per year in FTP with proper training and workouts .
Hopefully my two cents helped!

:-)

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Re: Realistic FTP Gains [cshowe80] [ In reply to ]

Jul 23, 14 11:19

Post #3 of 45 (15601 views)

http://www.trainerroad.com/

http://forum.slowtwitch.com/..._reply;so=ASC;mh=40;

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Last edited by: bhc: Jul 23, 14 11:22

Re: Realistic FTP Gains [bhc] [ In reply to ]

Jul 23, 14 11:22

Post #4 of 45 (15588 views)

bhc wrote:

http://www.trainerroad.com/

http://forum.slowtwitch.com/..._reply;so=ASC;mh=40;

Thanks I've got Trainer Road so I was going to do the 40km TT program for my bike specific training. I figured that would bring the greatest gains. Thoughts?

------
"Train so you have no regrets @ the finish line"

Re: Realistic FTP Gains [cshowe80] [ In reply to ]

Jul 23, 14 11:27

Post #5 of 45 (15559 views)

I'm right at your weight and have been biking only, mostly crits and road races. I had a rough FTP of 205, just finished Sweet Spot base I and some group rides every week for the past 6 weeks and tested last night at 241. I have def gotten better at taking the 8 min tests...but I know I have gotten stronger in the mean time.

I would get the base plans under your belt before taking on the 40k plan.

Just my experience, caveat emptor.

Re: Realistic FTP Gains [pyrahna] [ In reply to ]

Jul 23, 14 11:30

Post #6 of 45 (15547 views)

pyrahna wrote:

I'm right at your weight and have been biking only, mostly crits and road races. I had a rough FTP of 205, just finished Sweet Spot base I and some group rides every week for the past 6 weeks and tested last night at 241. I have def gotten better at taking the 8 min tests...but I know I have gotten stronger in the mean time.

I would get the base plans under your belt before taking on the 40k plan.

Just my experience, caveat emptor.

In my most recent race I forgot to turn off my Garmin after the bike leg so I'm not sure what the average wattage was but I did 20k in 33minutes in the wet averaging 36.1km/h. I think I have to retest my FTP as well but I'd think I have a good base already given that I ride 4x a week 2 of which are hard sessions of 60km or more. Sorry I'm trying to give as much background to ensure you all have the full picture.

------
"Train so you have no regrets @ the finish line"

Re: Realistic FTP Gains [cshowe80] [ In reply to ]

Jul 23, 14 11:40

Post #7 of 45 (15508 views)

I saw some big gains in the first few years, but I seem to have hit a plateau. 15% of FTP development in 1 year is a good year for me.

I have young kids, and a full time job, so I'm not riding 20 hours a week.

Re: Realistic FTP Gains [cshowe80] [ In reply to ]

Jul 23, 14 11:42

Post #8 of 45 (15492 views)

I wish I had a PM back in Dec. when I started my training plan. Raised it by 8% in the first 2 months, and it's mostly leveled out since. I haven't really focused on workouts to raise it. Being good at a 20' test in my basement where I can close my eyes and turn myself inside out, does not translate all that directly to holding 70-75% for 5 hours. But it gives me a baseline, a repeatable test in conditions I can easily duplicate. I'm Focused more on training load and specificity for my "A" race.

No reason that you can't raise it 10% or more in the off season. You just have to put in the work.

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http://www.trainingbible.com

Re: Realistic FTP Gains [cshowe80] [ In reply to ]

Jul 23, 14 12:12

Post #9 of 45 (15438 views)

I have managed to raise mine around 100 watts give or take a few in 3 years which is how long I have been cycling. Started at about 220 in Sept. 2011 and am around 320 at the moment. Very steady, hard work is the only thing that will get you there. I have found that as an older cyclist the stuff @ 110-120% of ftp is what gives me the most benefit but everyone is different. I wish I could improve with sweetspot workouts because I enjoy them but they don't seem to do much for me. I did used to be a pretty decent runner so I'm sure that has helped some also.

Re: Realistic FTP Gains [cshowe80] [ In reply to ]

Jul 23, 14 12:13

Post #10 of 45 (15427 views)

February 2012 when I started training with power I tested at 188 FTP
February 2014 tested at 285 FTP

I had the biggest jump after a threshold focused block in the winter of 2018 of about 8-12 weeks. Went from 235-285. I am new to triathlons (sprint 2010, Oly 2011, 1 70.3 2012 and 2013, and 4 70.3s in 2014) so I feel I can make some more large gains before I started to plateau. I would like to get to 300-325 in the next 3-5 years. I am heavier than you (200lbs) so my W/kg ratio isnt as good. I want to get to 3.5 W/kg

Re: Realistic FTP Gains [cshowe80] [ In reply to ]

Jul 23, 14 12:40

Post #11 of 45 (15352 views)

Less than a year at it for me went from 200ish to about 280ish in the past 7 months. I found a steady diet of doing sufferfest videos helped me raise it more than anything. I tried to do Wretched, Hell Hath No Fury and A Very Dark Place and ISLTAGIATT....about 5 hours a week tops on weeks I did manage to do them all. With more hours and consistency and less running than me I am sure you can get better gains,

Re: Realistic FTP Gains [cshowe80] [ In reply to ]

Jul 23, 14 13:29

Post #12 of 45 (15269 views)

It depends, but this is a good read: http://alancouzens.blogspot.com/...f-individuality.html

Decreasing marginal returns, for sure. Given the above, here's a visual (the chart, namely), and an example athlete who started out his debut year of cycling with an FTP of 285W. But the better answer is, it depends. While this athlete has tracked to Couzen's assumptions in years 1-3, it's doubtful world class p/wt will be attainable for him ever

Re: Realistic FTP Gains [chanthony] [ In reply to ]

Jul 23, 14 13:36

Post #13 of 45 (15240 views)

chanthony wrote:

you can gain about 25-30% per year in FTP with proper training and workouts .

25-30% per year is very optimistic, if not impossible. 5-15% per year is more likely after the first year.

Re: Realistic FTP Gains [cshowe80] [ In reply to ]

Jul 23, 14 13:45

Post #14 of 45 (15211 views)

How confident are you that your current FTP of 202 is accurate? The thing with most new riders is that they don't know how to suffer appropriately or properly pace a FTP test (whether it's 20' or a full hour). A lot of people see big gains in their FTP numbers simply by executing their tests better with very little change in actual fitness.

Re: Realistic FTP Gains [RichardL] [ In reply to ]

Jul 23, 14 13:49

Post #15 of 45 (15197 views)

I say that you have a lot of gains to make if you put in the proper training. Lots of sweet spot riding (roughly 80-90%) and some shorter efforts in the 110-120% range will do a lot of you are consistent in your training. I didn't have a powermeter for my first few years, but if I'd have to guess I maybe started with an FTP of around 220 W six years ago. Currently it's around 335-340 W, and I've definitely plateaued over the past few years. At this point, maintaining my bike power and focusing on my swim is a better ROI.

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Re: Realistic FTP Gains [Jason N] [ In reply to ]

Jul 24, 14 8:49

Post #16 of 45 (14977 views)

Jason N wrote:

How confident are you that your current FTP of 202 is accurate? The thing with most new riders is that they don't know how to suffer appropriately or properly pace a FTP test (whether it's 20' or a full hour). A lot of people see big gains in their FTP numbers simply by executing their tests better with very little change in actual fitness.

I've only done one test and it was during a 16 week build up program for the race season so I was a bit fatigued. I think more realistically it's around 219-227 range as I've been noticing with my training drop to maintenance mode (3-4 days a week rather than 6) I'm very much fresher on my rides. I'm pretty confident I know how to suffer but I'll leave room for this as well. I'd like to think I have a high threshold for pain and suffering so when I set out to go "all out" I'm aching when I get to the finish pretty profoundly. I've got a good test this weekend at a local race which will tell me more accurately where I am at now.

Thanks for the feedback everybody! I really appreciate your wisdom and opinions

------
"Train so you have no regrets @ the finish line"

Re: Realistic FTP Gains [rijndael] [ In reply to ]

Jul 24, 14 9:04

Post #17 of 45 (14961 views)

rijndael wrote:

I saw some big gains in the first few years, but I seem to have hit a plateau. 15% of FTP development in 1 year is a good year for me.

+1. I've been at the same FTP plateau for years. If I could get even a 5% improvement in a year then I would be over the moon. Once you've done it for a while, those percentage gains get really hard to come by.

Re: Realistic FTP Gains [jajichan] [ In reply to ]

Jul 24, 14 14:26

Post #18 of 45 (14820 views)

jajichan wrote:

rijndael wrote:

I saw some big gains in the first few years, but I seem to have hit a plateau. 15% of FTP development in 1 year is a good year for me.

+1. I've been at the same FTP plateau for years. If I could get even a 5% improvement in a year then I would be over the moon. Once you've done it for a while, those percentage gains get really hard to come by.

Yup - same here ... :(

____________________________________
Fatigue is biochemical, not biomechanical.
- Andrew Coggan, PhD

Re: Realistic FTP Gains [rroof] [ In reply to ]

Jul 24, 14 14:32

Post #19 of 45 (14811 views)

If 25-30% gains, over multiple years, was common - we'd all have FTPs close to the pros.

If you started at 200w, and got 2 back to back years of 25% gains, you'd be at 313w. It's 390w after 3 years. At some point, you're limited by genetics and other life obligations.

Last edited by: rijndael: Jul 24, 14 14:33

Re: Realistic FTP Gains [cshowe80] [ In reply to ]

Jul 24, 14 15:07

Post #20 of 45 (14764 views)

I'd say you should be happy with 20-25% year one with some real focused work. Very possible for you. How to go about it is personal.
In your case just riding a bunch should elicit gains. Worry about year two after year one.

Re: Realistic FTP Gains [kileyay] [ In reply to ]

BrentwoodTriGuy

Jul 24, 14 15:16

Post #21 of 45 (14745 views)

kileyay wrote:

I hate these charts... maybe they work for a large amount of you but I'm sitting around 280 ftp and there is ZERO chance I can ride 260 watts for an Olympic and be able to run what pace I want. Maybe I bike 260 and the faster bike time makes up for the lack of run but I wouldn't want to test that theory.

Re: Realistic FTP Gains [cshowe80] [ In reply to ]

Jul 24, 14 15:23

Post #22 of 45 (14725 views)

I went through a period where I was obsessed. One attempt with a coach, and the other on my own using my Computrainer. Both times I found myself dreading my workouts and eventually burned out.

Its going to be hard, but I think those gains are realizable. Personally, from my experience, I went into it too fast and found my burnout. Maybe getting more base miles you can get some where more sustainable. Would be interested to see how the rest of the community responded.

The advice I generally get when I ask around is simple, "time in the saddle." Just keep riding. There are a bunch of winter plans out there and some very capable coaches also that are very reasonable. Chanthony worked with the coach I had and he's just flourished. He is also a freak so it may be weighted a bit.

Good luck.

Re: Realistic FTP Gains [rijndael] [ In reply to ]

Jul 24, 14 15:30

Post #23 of 45 (14716 views)

I agree that 25% is wildly optimistic beyond year one. And how much of that first year is pacing is a legitimate question as well.

For those of us who've more or less stagnated FTP-wise, anyone else noted that their power-duration curve flattens out? My FTP seems only slowly changing, but my ability to hold higher percentages of that in a half is still growing.

The question of who is right and who is wrong has seemed to me always too small to be worth a moment's thought, while the question of what is right and what is wrong has seemed all-important.

-Albert J. Nock

Re: Realistic FTP Gains [chanthony] [ In reply to ]

Jul 24, 14 16:08

Post #24 of 45 (14677 views)

I have a similar FTP and will be doing IMMT. I am 5'9" and 165-lbs.

What %FTP or watts will you be aiming for at IMLP at? I am thinking 215w is my number.

I would be interested to hear how you do at IMLP if you could let me know.

Re: Realistic FTP Gains [Derf] [ In reply to ]

Jul 24, 14 17:36

Post #25 of 45 (14626 views)

For those of us who've more or less stagnated FTP-wise, anyone else noted that their power-duration curve flattens out?

You can nearly max out your <CP60 in less than a year, starting from scratch. The long distance will keep improving for ~10 years or so... or at least it can if you work at it.

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