rcmioga wrote:
Good analysis and you'll probably be right but I could definitely see him going sub 4.
I agree, sub-4 is well within the realm of possibility. I don't know much about the course, but the bike looks like it has a few big rollers and the run looks flat, maybe equivalent to Oceanside or something.
Swim - He'll come out of the water with the main pack in 24-25 assuming it is not wetsuit legal for the pros.
Bike - I'm sure he could ride with Lieto, but who knows how hard he'll push it first time out. For a former-pro data point, Jalabert had the 13th fastest bike split at Vegas 70.3 and was 7min behind Lieto and 3min behind Crowie, I'm sure Lance is faster than Jalabert. I'm guessing Lance will ride with Lieto, say 2:10-2:12.
Run - Judging by the Strava runs Lance is posting (I saw a tempo run with 4miles at 5:30ish pace), it looks like he could run 1:15-1:18.
Include 3min for transitions and it adds up to 3:52-3:58. My official prediction is 3:55:43.
Craig