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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [Dooayne Tries] [ In reply to ]
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Dooayne Tries wrote:
ericM35-39 wrote:
Tri or Die wrote:

Hold on a minute: Lets say you were training hard as a triathlete...Would you be doing KOM's with a cycling team in Austin 2 days before a 70.3 race???


you should see what he did 2 days before his first world championship




what did he do?

A transfusion?

;-P

_____________________________________________
Rick, "Retired" hobbyist athlete
Trying to come back slowly from acute A-Fib
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [J_R] [ In reply to ]
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Dry those eyes already.
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [NJSteve] [ In reply to ]
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NJSteve wrote:
He finished yesterday.

*snort*

lol
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [3Aims] [ In reply to ]
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Well, thus far the vast majority are saying 3:57 to 4:07.
Last edited by: 3Aims: Feb 9, 12 7:44
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [Cake] [ In reply to ]
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Cake wrote:
Dry those eyes already.

I can't , I'm still laughing so hard that I am crying at the notion that anyone could think that one "feeds" on EPO.
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [J_R] [ In reply to ]
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HAhaha you think everything is literal. You live in a funny world. No wonder you get upset so easily.
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [Cake] [ In reply to ]
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Judging by his twitter updates, he's in solid form for this time of year, so it will be interesting to see where he is compared to where the other pro's are at. Either way it's going to be an exiting race.
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David
2007 Trek Madone 5.2 Discovery Channel
2011 Trek Speed Concept 9.5
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [3Aims] [ In reply to ]
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4:01 with a top 3 bike split.

"One Line Robert"
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [wsrobert] [ In reply to ]
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I didn't see it already so I'm gonna throw it out there as my chances of being correct should be higher than the rest of you...

DNF

I kinda hope not, cuz I want to see an official number with no excuses to see how he does. But still, I'd like to WIN this thread. haha!
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [drsteve] [ In reply to ]
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drsteve wrote:
btmoney wrote:
drsteve wrote:
A few years ago he was doing mountain bike racing up at Leadville and doing well.


I'd say breaking the course record in 2009 by beating the guy who won the last 6 in a row is a little better than..."doing well"....


Sure, but on his second attempt... He's a top professional cyclist, not Astroboy. He was doing well. I stand by that.



This all comes down to your definition of "well". Leadville isn't a TT. And bike racing isn't an all out effort. It's tactical. LA flatted 10 miles from the finish in '09 and rode with a flat (and his time still is only 5 minutes off the current record). The point isn't that he had the best time ever. The point is that he won one of the most prestigious mountain bike races in the world on his SECOND try. That is incredible when he doesn't even have a history of mnt bike racing (to my knowledge).
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [Coasterx] [ In reply to ]
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Coasterx wrote:
I didn't see it already so I'm gonna throw it out there as my chances of being correct should be higher than the rest of you...

DNF

I kinda hope not, cuz I want to see an official number with no excuses to see how he does. But still, I'd like to WIN this thread. haha!

Damn, you took my answer.
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [%FTP] [ In reply to ]
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%FTP wrote:
The point is that he won one of the most prestigious mountain bike races in the world on his SECOND try. That is incredible when he doesn't even have a history of mnt bike racing (to my knowledge).

Uhh, the Leadville is not one of the most prestigious mountain bike races in the world. It is not even a pro race.

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"Remember: a bicycle is an elegant and efficient tool designed for seeking out and defeating people who aren't as good as you."

--BikeSnobNYC
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [GT] [ In reply to ]
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you're right. that was an exaggeration. maybe better filed under 1-day-endurance-races-in-the-US.
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [3Aims] [ In reply to ]
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What if LA goes sub 4 and wins? I don't think that is likely, and I would bet against it, but what if it happened and he shocked us all?

Would it rattle the pros and put a little fear in the mix?
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [%FTP] [ In reply to ]
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%FTP wrote:
What if LA goes sub 4 and wins? I don't think that is likely, and I would bet against it, but what if it happened and he shocked us all?

Would it rattle the pros and put a little fear in the mix?

It would be a sad indictment on the quality of professional triathletes racing today if he comes out and starts winning from the gate. I do not see it happening, though.
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [mjshapiro] [ In reply to ]
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mjshapiro wrote:
You have to figure in Amey, Boom Boom, Henning, Cunningham, and Tollakson. The field is stacked for an early season race and it will definitely be a good gauge to see where his fitness is over the distance.

I'd say to watch out for Jesse Thomas as well. The guy has apparently learned how to swim really well and runs almost as fast as Raelert. His bike is a question mark though. Hopefully they got that sorted this winter because it definitely isn't due to lack of power (20min power test over 400watts). Maybe finally not having to borrow a bike will help.



Heath Dotson
HD Coaching:Website |Twitter: 140 Characters or Less|Facebook:Follow us on Facebook
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [Ex-cyclist] [ In reply to ]
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Did Thomas get a bike sponsor? Sky's the limit for him at this point.

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [rcmioga] [ In reply to ]
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rcmioga wrote:
Good analysis and you'll probably be right but I could definitely see him going sub 4.

I agree, sub-4 is well within the realm of possibility. I don't know much about the course, but the bike looks like it has a few big rollers and the run looks flat, maybe equivalent to Oceanside or something.

Swim - He'll come out of the water with the main pack in 24-25 assuming it is not wetsuit legal for the pros.
Bike - I'm sure he could ride with Lieto, but who knows how hard he'll push it first time out. For a former-pro data point, Jalabert had the 13th fastest bike split at Vegas 70.3 and was 7min behind Lieto and 3min behind Crowie, I'm sure Lance is faster than Jalabert. I'm guessing Lance will ride with Lieto, say 2:10-2:12.
Run - Judging by the Strava runs Lance is posting (I saw a tempo run with 4miles at 5:30ish pace), it looks like he could run 1:15-1:18.

Include 3min for transitions and it adds up to 3:52-3:58. My official prediction is 3:55:43.

Craig
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [CSpread] [ In reply to ]
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CSpread wrote:
rcmioga wrote:
Good analysis and you'll probably be right but I could definitely see him going sub 4.


I agree, sub-4 is well within the realm of possibility. I don't know much about the course, but the bike looks like it has a few big rollers and the run looks flat, maybe equivalent to Oceanside or something.

Swim - He'll come out of the water with the main pack in 24-25 assuming it is not wetsuit legal for the pros.
Bike - I'm sure he could ride with Lieto, but who knows how hard he'll push it first time out. For a former-pro data point, Jalabert had the 13th fastest bike split at Vegas 70.3 and was 7min behind Lieto and 3min behind Crowie, I'm sure Lance is faster than Jalabert. I'm guessing Lance will ride with Lieto, say 2:10-2:12.
Run - Judging by the Strava runs Lance is posting (I saw a tempo run with 4miles at 5:30ish pace), it looks like he could run 1:15-1:18.

Include 3min for transitions and it adds up to 3:52-3:58. My official prediction is 3:55:43.

Craig

You have the fastest prediction thus far.
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [3Aims] [ In reply to ]
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I am by nature an optimistic person.

That said, maybe we should institute "Price is Right" rules - closest to the actual without going over ;)

Craig
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [MI_Mumps] [ In reply to ]
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MI_Mumps wrote:
Did Thomas get a bike sponsor? Sky's the limit for him at this point.

He's posted that he will be on his own bike this year and not borrowing one. Not sure who it is though. He's on with Pearl Izumi and First Endurance though.



Heath Dotson
HD Coaching:Website |Twitter: 140 Characters or Less|Facebook:Follow us on Facebook
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [Ex-cyclist] [ In reply to ]
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I have no idea about his swim/bike split... but I can guarantee that he will not run sub 1:20 for the 21.1k. If his open PB is 1:22, I think he will be around 1:25-1:30...
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [NOexplode] [ In reply to ]
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [NOexplode] [ In reply to ]
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I don't know what his half-marathon PB is, but I think he ran a 2:47 at either Boston or NYC during his first retirement. He also didn't give up much time to Stoltz on the run at the XTerra US Champs last year. Don't get me wrong, I'd love it if he went 4:16-4:20... just so I could tell my wife that I am fast as a 7-time TdF winner, but I really think he'll go much faster.

Craig
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Re: The Official Lance Armstrong Panama 70.3 Time Prediction Thread [3Aims] [ In reply to ]
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If he gets beat badly I hope he doesn't get pissed and try and find other avenues to gain an advantage outside of training. This isn't like the Xterra racing, or running marathons for fun. I think he wants to do well, and it's pretty cut and dry here if you can keep up or not in the non-draft road triathlon format. If he doesn't do well he's not gonna like it.
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