Brad,

I know you are pro, so much more qualified than me to make race predictions, but I'm surprised at the statement above. Many people have Charles on the podium but you think she "could sneak into the Top10"

japarker24

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

Interesting...I kinda echo other posters though in thinking Lucy should make at least top 5, if not top 3. In another year or 2, she should be able to de-throne Daniella by simply taking a 4-5 min lead on the swim and then biking and running fast enough such that Ryf can not catch her. We'll see...

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

Thanks Monty, glad to know my estimates jive pretty well with yours, you being our resident retired pro expert. :)

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

One thing to remember is that Lucy is at a disadvantage to some extent. The pack not only helps the people in the back but it also helps the front person to. Thorsten just posted a swim analysis including practice swims and race swims: https://www.trirating.com/...the-2017-hoala-swim/

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TG - Very interesting, thanks for the link. I've heard of "trirating" before but never really looked into it. Lots of interesting data and info there!!!

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

Thanks for posting,

The data points where all 4 are present are interesting.

Cheers,

You are welcome. I kept thinking during this thread someone would do it, and then I thought about doing it when nobody did it, and then boom, I saw it on Trirating. I love when that happens.

On the topic what I think is interesting is you can draw a line down the middle where above it, the racers go faster on race day, and below it the racers go slower on race day. This is easy to explain as on the practice swim it is probably some what more chill for one than the pro start, but two, there are more gap fillers from the amatuers who some of the pros can hang onto during the practice swim but the feet wouldn't be there on race day because the feet fought to stay with the next pack ahead of that swimmer if that makes sense at all.

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Yeah,

AG vs pro....interesting, I googled "Mike Thoren"

Previous continental cup and ETU guy when he was 20 or so now racing AG.

Apparently..photo finish on the run up the beach vs HW.

Cheers,

i
Indeed. See Kaisa Sali's video, finish at about 0:35. Wiltshire really wanted the win.
https://www.facebook.com/...os/1720357894672546/

Lol,

Did wiltshire bump an Ag athlete for the win???

Or other way around, can't tell who is who.

Maurice

Mike Thoren on the left...(since you asked)

Yes, yes he did.

Which makes me think:

How hard was the front group going?

I know monty said that Harry likes to chill and sit on people's hips/feet and basically try and out sprint them in the last few meters. Was that Thoren's plan too? In the video posted above, Thoren looks like he's having fun, and Harry is trying very hars to get the Win in that run up to the finish line.

Just looking at Thoren's credentials, could we say the pace up front was hot? Does this put Lionel's swim into better perspective? Even if we assume he was going harder than he will go on race day, that's still a great swim, being only 4 minutes back to someone like Thoren, no?

It's not like Wiltshire has a sterling reputation. There's the whole ITU thing from several years ago and I've got a vague recollection that Frodo was upset with him at the end of the Kona swim last year.

Did we ever get to the bottom of the beef with Frodo last year? Alot of folk were animated, seemingly on both sides, but no details were forthcoming. Anyone??

Re the video - when I exit a sea swim, I'm pretty drunk for the first few steps - and that's just cruising in. Can't imagine an all out sprint, so I give him benefit of doubt on that one

If he can run a controlled sprint out of the water he can avoid body slamming someone who exited the water 15-20 feet away. HW is definitely a weirdo.

Fair point.

I was going to say, it's amazing what Wiltshire can swim, when he's not busy trying to drown Javier Gomez... He's one of the few athletes that legit has necessitated their own rule in the ITU rulebook (new midway through the season this year, on swim interference)...

Harry swam with the team last year for about 5 weeks before Kona. He would have been hard pressed to make anything like that set of 10x100. On 1:05/100 not problem, 1:00/100 would have been a totally different story.

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+1

however in this case I am certain that DTD is playing the gamesmanship hand and as such gets a certain amount of latitude..

Very interesting, thanks for your first hand report. So what would he go for the 200, 500, and 1650, rested and in a Masters meet???

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

 
I have it on very good authority that she got fed up that Huub were not paying their bills and so finally got out of the contract with them as she now has Management and Lawyers. Happened with other Athletes as well allegedly. So looks like she is with TYR now but we saw her trying a ROKA and XTerra swim skin out at the pool so must mean she is using Kona to try out her options. Wonder if she will be getting paid by whomever she uses? Quick deal done mayv?? At the expo she was asked about Huub and she just said "I don't have a swim sponsor" so no doubt plenty will be calling her.

I think she will be TOP 10 overall and her future will be the podium. On,y 24 and first race as a pro. She really struggled on the Frankfurt run and Crowley beat her easily in the end. So maybe Sime more maturing for her but looks like another great British talent coming through. I think 2ndcand 3rd will be between Crowley and Jackson but would love to see Rachel Joyce thereof. Go for it new Mums!!!![/reply]

I believe Chura's already maxed out her sponsor FOTW bonuses this year. I'd expect her to go for a more balanced race, but she should still be swimming with the front pack.

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Ed O'Malley
www.VeloVetta.com
Founder of VeloVetta Cycling Shoes
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I don't think being a pro makes me more qualified to make race predictions by any means.

The reason I think a "sneak into the Top10" is due to her age and lack of "big races". Yes, she won the Challenge Half "Champs" and had a good race at Frankfurt, but she is 24 years young and this is her first time racing in the pro field in Kona. The lack of experience and her youth is the biggest reason I would say "sneaking" into the top10.

And I think her in the Top 10 is a great day for her, based on some of her interviews seems she is aiming for a Top 3-5, good on her, but just seems a bit arrogant in my opinion, but some may call it confidence. No doubt she has the talent to be a podium / champion contender in Kona, I just don't think her first year will be the year that it happens. But, today is the day she can prove me wrong, then again who am I? Like I said, just an Arm Chair QB ;)

My picks for the day:

Women:
1. Ryf
2. Jackson
3. Crowley
4. Sali
5. Lester (Joyce / McCauley / Piampiano are on my top 5 "bubble")

Men
1. TO (obviously I am biased here, but I really do think he can win it. Working with Greg Bennet on his run, and having a new baby has him motivated more than ever. And the Dad "boost" is a real thing ;) )
2. Lange
3. Frodeno
4. Hoffman
5. Sanders (Cunnama / Reed / McNamee / Kastelein are on my top 5 "bubble")

I mean this is Kona, anything can happen. Those "on the bubble" athletes I feel can definitely be in the Top5, it is really hard to only pick 5 athletes.

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-Brad Williams
Website | Twitter: @BW_Tri |Instagram: @BW_Tri | Strava | Co-Founder & Coach at: KIS Coaching
Partnered with: Zoot Sports | Precision Fuel &Hydration | ISM

Interesting......Here is my take on it. From my observation it seems that HUUB had been behind her from the early days. It wouldn't surprise me on payments being late, not because it's HUUB, but because it isn't uncommon in our sport. If I was in a similar situation, I would probably get fed up as well, but loyalty to sponsors speaks volumes, and jumping shit rather than trying to come to a resolution just seems a bit odd. Maybe she/her team thinks grass is greener on the other side and used it as a way to get out of her contract.

I just find it hard to see HUUB "not paying" their bills, I mean they have some of the biggest names in the sport, and some of the fastest swimmers. I just don't see those "other" sponsored athletes sticking around if HUUB isn't paying.

See my comments above in regards to my thoughts on her race today and in the future of Kona.

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-Brad Williams
Website | Twitter: @BW_Tri |Instagram: @BW_Tri | Strava | Co-Founder & Coach at: KIS Coaching
Partnered with: Zoot Sports | Precision Fuel &Hydration | ISM

Looks like Lucy Charles did not race in TYR after all but Roka? I would suggest as a pro if you keep chasing after a sponsor to pay and they continue to not pay then you have to look elsewhere. Loyalty to a sponsor that does not pay their bills even with repeated follow ups that apparently went in for months, means paying your rent becomes pretty difficult. Though after her race today I would suggest that paying her rent will not be a problem in the near future. A

Amazing day out there doe so many Athletes with some big surprises apart from Rym is just at another level. So calm and controlled even when things were going wrong early. What a champion!