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Quantifying road bike risk: Chapter 2
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let me bottom line this for everyone who's interested in this, and who is interested enough to follow this topic in these threads.

in my business life i've found that there are 2 kinds of efforts and 2 kinds of people involved in those efforts: those getting the ball to the 20 yard line and stalling out; or to the 10 yard line; or the 2 yard line. that's one kind of effort. then there's those getting the ball across the goal line.

the internet is full of people and ideas and theories and efforts and suggestions that are perfect for advancing the ball across midfield. at that point, somebody grabs the ball and runs to the sidelines, hurdles the waterboy, and runs with the ball up into the grandstands. we've got a lot of grandstanders on the internet. a lot of people who'd rather, as an individual, hurdle the waterboy than, as part of a team, get the ball across the goal line.

we had something kind of like this happen when we had a spate of deaths by heart attack in the swim, in 2012 and 2013. i did a bunch of research, wrote a bunch of articles, i think a part of that effort led to ironman coming out with new swim start motifs that i thought were positive. we now have race directors that think twice and three times before they disallow warm-ups prior to the swim. do we have fewer swim issues now than we used to have? i haven't looked at our sport's stats. i think we're better off. i hope we are. but we had a lot of people trying to grab the ball and run into the grandstands back then!

we are at the point now where we have people reading the first post, and the second, in the thread started on this issue and then writing their prescriptions at the end of 80 or 100 posts, without (it seems) reading any of those posts that would've spoken to their prescriptions.

so the simple question i have is, is this ball worth taking over the goal line? is it worth the effort? do you really want to know: A) what the risk is to you, in terms of real data, to ride on the road? B) do you want to know what mitigates or aggravates your risk? based on data.

if so, i'm willing to push this thing over the goal line or waste a lot of time trying. if this isn't important to you, then i don't see why it should be important for me to spend time on it, because my goal here is to serve the community. if the community doesn't care by definition i'm doing the community a disservice by wasting time on it that could be better spent serving the community in some other way.

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: Quantifying road bike risk: Chapter 2 [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Hi Dan,

I want to know and my post on camera supports this as does your Red Blinker poll. I would like to see you add a response option of how many are using a red blinker AND a rear camera.

Thanks, John
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Re: Quantifying road bike risk: Chapter 2 [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Slowman wrote:
so the simple question i have is, is this ball worth taking over the goal line? is it worth the effort? do you really want to know: A) what the risk is to you, in terms of real data, to ride on the road? B) do you want to know what mitigates or aggravates your risk? based on data.

If I can get B) then I'm extremely interested and I think it could help people to re-evaluate how, when and where they ride, and possibly even have a wider impact. For it to be worth the effort, you do obviously need something significantly better than the stats that are already out there. As you said in the other thread, there are already decent stats available on the number of cycling fatalities, so the general risks of riding a bike on the road are already fairly quantifiable. It's when you start to break that down that it gets interesting and meaningful. I'd love to have more data about the risks of riding a TT bike vs a road bike (I've formed my own views based on some recent accidents). Or riding on city vs suburban vs rural roads. Or riding midweek vs the weekend.
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Re: Quantifying road bike risk: Chapter 2 [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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I think what you are doing would move the ball forward, and maybe even to a large degree. For me personally though, it will not likely change my riding habits. I train in 5 places. Mostly just 2. Those are places I feel are the safest. To me it seems like a large net being cast. I understand weeding out non-cyclist bike/car deaths, but I know plenty of people who ride places I never would because of the traffic, speed limit, etc.

Perhaps all of this was addressed in the previous thread. I applaud your effort. There has certainly been too many deaths. I would really like to see something done to address the lack of punishment for the drivers as well.

So, yes I see value in the big picture aspect.

Brian

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Re: Quantifying road bike risk: Chapter 2 [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Slowman wrote:
do you really want to know: A) what the risk is to you, in terms of real data, to ride on the road? B) do you want to know what mitigates or aggravates your risk? based on data.

.

Yes. I consider my cohorts to be a larger group of cyclists than triathletes, but this would be good information to use in assessing my risks.
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Re: Quantifying road bike risk: Chapter 2 [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Yes, this is certainly an area where clear, unambiguous data and sensible, unbiased analysis and advice would be very valuable. It would have the potential to facilitate significant safety improvements.
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Re: Quantifying road bike risk: Chapter 2 [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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I'm in.

Dan Kennison

facebook: @triPremierBike
http://www.PremierBike.com
http://www.PositionOneSports.com
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Re: Quantifying road bike risk: Chapter 2 [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Slowman wrote:
let me bottom line this for everyone who's interested in this, and who is interested enough to follow this topic in these threads.

in my business life i've found that there are 2 kinds of efforts and 2 kinds of people involved in those efforts: those getting the ball to the 20 yard line and stalling out; or to the 10 yard line; or the 2 yard line. that's one kind of effort. then there's those getting the ball across the goal line.

the internet is full of people and ideas and theories and efforts and suggestions that are perfect for advancing the ball across midfield. at that point, somebody grabs the ball and runs to the sidelines, hurdles the waterboy, and runs with the ball up into the grandstands. we've got a lot of grandstanders on the internet. a lot of people who'd rather, as an individual, hurdle the waterboy than, as part of a team, get the ball across the goal line.

we had something kind of like this happen when we had a spate of deaths by heart attack in the swim, in 2012 and 2013. i did a bunch of research, wrote a bunch of articles, i think a part of that effort led to ironman coming out with new swim start motifs that i thought were positive. we now have race directors that think twice and three times before they disallow warm-ups prior to the swim. do we have fewer swim issues now than we used to have? i haven't looked at our sport's stats. i think we're better off. i hope we are. but we had a lot of people trying to grab the ball and run into the grandstands back then!

we are at the point now where we have people reading the first post, and the second, in the thread started on this issue and then writing their prescriptions at the end of 80 or 100 posts, without (it seems) reading any of those posts that would've spoken to their prescriptions.

so the simple question i have is, is this ball worth taking over the goal line? is it worth the effort? do you really want to know: A) what the risk is to you, in terms of real data, to ride on the road? B) do you want to know what mitigates or aggravates your risk? based on data.

if so, i'm willing to push this thing over the goal line or waste a lot of time trying. if this isn't important to you, then i don't see why it should be important for me to spend time on it, because my goal here is to serve the community. if the community doesn't care by definition i'm doing the community a disservice by wasting time on it that could be better spent serving the community in some other way.

Of course I want to know the risks, and mitigating factors, I'm in

res, non verba
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Re: Quantifying road bike risk: Chapter 2 [cbritri] [ In reply to ]
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I'd really like to know the risk associated with what I would call fitness biking(road bike, tri-bike, or another bike where fitness is the goal) as compared to that of commuters and those that ride because they have no other means.

I'd love to know how to minimize my risk for riding on the road. As it stands now Sunday mornings before the church crowd is out and about is best for me. But, how would someone know that moving to a new area. This data could help them find the best times and best routes(urban/rural) to ride.
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Re: Quantifying road bike risk: Chapter 2 [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Yes it would be worth it. That's how they made airplane travel safer. Break down every accident, find the causes and then see what could be done to reduce the risk of that happening again. Wash, rinse, repeat. But it all starts with data on individual accidents and enough of it to differentiate in terms of potential causes or risk factors.

And even if a massive study is not going to reduce the over all risk much, a more nuanced understanding of specific risks and risk factors in specific situations would give individual cyclists some ability to have a bit more control over their fate.
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Re: Quantifying road bike risk: Chapter 2 [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Slowman wrote:
do you really want to know: A) what the risk is to you, in terms of real data, to ride on the road? B) do you want to know what mitigates or aggravates your risk? based on data.

Yes and Yes. This is a no brainer for me both as a cyclist and a scientist.

tweets.
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Re: Quantifying road bike risk: Chapter 2 [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Slowman wrote:
so the simple question i have is, is this ball worth taking over the goal line? is it worth the effort? do you really want to know: A) what the risk is to you, in terms of real data, to ride on the road? B) do you want to know what mitigates or aggravates your risk? based on data.

Has anyone defined the effort needed? Of course the data would be great. Particularly B. IMO A has already been answered well enough.
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Re: Quantifying road bike risk: Chapter 2 [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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I'll be the odd one. I enjoy and appreciate reading anything and everything you put "out there."

But for me the answer is: No. Not worth the effort. Far too many variables that I would disregard because they don't apply to me (except when they do, in which case I'd ignore them and "run the risk").

I appreciate you asking, and acknowledge that your swim warm up efforts were/are beneficial - you likely saved lives out there. We'll never know how many. Something to take stock of.

But, don't let my opinion hold sway - I raced motocross for years knowing that broken bones were part of the game.

I saw this on a white board in a window box at my daughters middle school...
List of what life owes you:
1. __________
2. __________
3. __________
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Re: Quantifying road bike risk: Chapter 2 [rruff] [ In reply to ]
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"Has anyone defined the effort needed?"

to me, this is a several-part process:

1. we agree on a set of fields that attach to each incident. i think we're close on that.

2. we (here at slowtwitch) set up a database for cataloguing incidents, that can be used by all-comers. we present an abstract of incidents on the front-end, so that people can see if their incident is already recorded. the rest of the fields we keep from view.

3. i have several tens of thousands of people i speak to directly, and then some hundreds of thousands a month indirectly (people who come to slowtwitch). then there are the roughly 4000 club officers, bike fitters, retailers, race directors to whom i correspond. i ask them all to recollect cases of cycling deaths in the greater triathlon training/racing community, to make a listing of each case of which they personally know; and then to share and push this effort out to those in their circles.

4. here's the part i can't control: i need YOU ALL to push this effort out to everyone in your own circles: your facebook groups, facebook friends, the places where you shop, are coached, your club and so forth. will you do that? this is what i can't control. this is going to be the place where the effort falls down. i'm certain that my reach is enough so that the reach of the folks i reach will uncover every incident. but what i can't do is actually get those in my reach to multi-level market this effort. we will not have good data until we find absolutely every single cycling death that's part of this cohort.

5. i do my best to calculate an accurate denominator. it's x deaths per year over what cohort size? i share with you all how that denominator is calculated.

6. once the data is complete, then i present it. just the data. we all will draw our conclusions and i suspect we'll be in agreement on the conclusions, i.e., if these invariably happen under certain conditions, we avoid those conditions. we might be able to show what the risk is, quantifiably, under certain conditions (your risk is x if you've got a red blinker on your bike, y if you don't, stuff like that).

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: Quantifying road bike risk: Chapter 2 [alaina1] [ In reply to ]
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"My quick thoughts (caveat: haven't read any other threads, but this issue was top of mind for me today)"

this is one time where it would have been good to read the other thread. your points have already been covered. thanks. i appreciate your interest. this is why i started the new thread.

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: Quantifying road bike risk: Chapter 2 [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Deleted! Back to not perusing slowtwitch for the next 2 years :) Sorry to bug ya!
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Re: Quantifying road bike risk: Chapter 2 [alaina1] [ In reply to ]
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"Deleted! Back to not perusing slowtwitch for the next 2 years :) Sorry to bug ya! "

i didn't mean to be harsh, and i regret that you read it that way. just, that's why we present these threads as we do, with all the previous posts, so that you can see what others wrote before you post.

if this is top of mind to you, as you said it was, then maybe you can try perusing again in a couple of months instead of a couple of years, after the rest of us have done the work, so that you can read the results and maybe we'll have something of value for you.

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: Quantifying road bike risk: Chapter 2 [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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In. Any quantification here would be useful
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Re: Quantifying road bike risk: Chapter 2 [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Slowman wrote:
1. we agree on a set of fields that attach to each incident. i think we're close on that.
2. we (here at slowtwitch) set up a database for cataloguing incidents, that can be used by all-comers. we present an abstract of incidents on the front-end, so that people can see if their incident is already recorded. the rest of the fields we keep from view.

Very worthy, thanks for doing this. Hope it grows into a system that yields some real actionable intel.

Are you thinking most of the data will come from friends of the deceased, or will you solicit law enforcement data as well?
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Re: Quantifying road bike risk: Chapter 2 [rruff] [ In reply to ]
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"Are you thinking most of the data will come from friends of the deceased, or will you solicit law enforcement data as well?"

any and all. here's what area where i'm stuck: i'd like it to act as a wiki, so that we have all these fields for an incident, and fields we don't know the answers to are added by another person who knows the answer. or who can correct a wrong answer. but that would mean all the fields in every incident are public and viewable, right? and is that proper? i'd like to find a way around that.

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: Quantifying road bike risk: Chapter 2 [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Hello Slowman and All,

First off .... I think it will be a worthwhile effort and appreciate that you are willing to take it on .... including the ST group in the process.

Perhaps the process will discover some unanticipated insights ...... being a subset of 'big data' .....

Is the project ST Triathlete Cyclist Risk and Countermeasures only going to be only about death risk .... injury risk not considered?

Cheers, Neal

+1 mph Faster
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Re: Quantifying road bike risk: Chapter 2 [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Slowman wrote:
any and all. here's what area where i'm stuck: i'd like it to act as a wiki, so that we have all these fields for an incident, and fields we don't know the answers to are added by another person who knows the answer. or who can correct a wrong answer. but that would mean all the fields in every incident are public and viewable, right? and is that proper? i'd like to find a way around that.

Having people offer relevant details on a public website for cases that aren't yet settled could be problematic. No idea what the law says about this.

But assuming that isn't an issue, I'm hoping that most cyclists who ride a good amount outdoors will have riding friends who can supply most of the details, and will be motivated to do so. Do you have a list of the fields you are thinking of?
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Re: Quantifying road bike risk: Chapter 2 [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Part of me thinks that the numerator is going to be the easier of the two numbers to generate the denominator is going to be much more difficult. There are lots and lots of people out there that don't post up there information and just ride. How are you going to quantify all those safe miles travelled?
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Re: Quantifying road bike risk: Chapter 2 [nbaffaro] [ In reply to ]
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I echo the point on the denominator.

It is super hard to calculate. For example, if you are using ST members, how do you count those that regluarly bike outside (vs those who use trainers, or are just endurance runners etc).

You also face a potential issue around simply grouping "% death of cycling" by treating "cyclist or not" as a binary thing.

What you actually want to do is calculate the danger "per hour" or something like that. My chance of dying is much lower if I cycle once to the shops for 15 minutes vs if I log 100s of miles a week
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