Predict Odds on IMMD rapid sellout

Apr 13, 14 13:16

Post #1 of 76 (9935 views)

Here's my dilemma.

Since I registered for IM Mont-Tremblant, family circumstances and potential job situations have changed. I would likely be doing the event without my family present. That's just not something I'm interested in. (First IM, one of those sad sack BoP transformation stories we all hate on NBC, etc etc....) if. I do MD, my wife and kids can 100% be there.

You don't need this info, other than to answer the question "why would anyone consider trading a gorgeous course/finish line like IMMT for the boring, crowded, middle-of-nothing IMMD?" (- I have family there in MD to stay with free.)

So a transfer seems like the smartest thing, all external factors considered. But the quandary is, I won't know if. I can transfer until registration has been open for ten days. If it sells out, forget it.

The cost of registering for it, getting $100 back from ImMT, not paying immt housing and staying free with family, means. I would still be economically ahead. But we're talking about a $500 waste if the race doesn't sell out.

I'm an odds guy. If I feel the odds of fast sell out are high, I'll register and cut my losses with the canceled race. But if the odds are low, I may take the chance for the cheap transfer.

So, slowtwitch analysts: do your predictions. Imnyc year one sold out instantly. Florida always does. This race is in a region full of triathletes. BUT the announcement is very close to race day, with people already committed to their IM races for the year, an anomaly due to the drama at TRi Columbia.

Game theorists? Gamblers? Economists? Freakonomists?

===================================
I'll tell you all right now, my seat is too low, I'm not aero and I carry too much fluid on the bike.

Re: Predict Odds on IMMD rapid sellout [RunFatboyRun] [ In reply to ]

Apr 13, 14 13:23

Post #2 of 76 (9919 views)

After way too much thought, I predict it will not sell out within 10 days. Then I bet a few hundred folks apply to transfer.

Last edited by: jjh: Apr 13, 14 13:45

Re: Predict Odds on IMMD rapid sellout [jjh] [ In reply to ]

Apr 13, 14 13:32

Post #3 of 76 (9901 views)

jjh wrote:

After way too much thought, I predict it will not sell out within 10 days. The I bet a few hundred folks apply to transfer.

x2.

Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

Re: Predict Odds on IMMD rapid sellout [japarker24] [ In reply to ]

Apr 13, 14 13:34

Post #4 of 76 (9899 views)

I'd be interested in moving from the Princeton half race to the Maryland full, but I don't think it would make much financial sense.

Next year it will sell out for sure, and rapidly. This year, I don't think so.

-Robert

"How wonderful it is that nobody need wait a single moment before starting to improve the world." ~Anne Frank

Last edited by: Robert: Apr 13, 14 13:35

Re: Predict Odds on IMMD rapid sellout [Robert] [ In reply to ]

Apr 13, 14 13:36

Post #5 of 76 (9894 views)

Robert wrote:

I'd be interested in moving from the Princeton half race to the Maryland full, but I don't think it would make much financial sense.

Next year it will sell out for sure, and rapidly. This year, I don't think so.

-Robert

Transfer rules don't allow that.........

Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

Re: Predict Odds on IMMD rapid sellout [japarker24] [ In reply to ]

Apr 13, 14 13:37

Post #6 of 76 (9891 views)

Well, yes, if you want to pick nits. ;)

-Robert

"How wonderful it is that nobody need wait a single moment before starting to improve the world." ~Anne Frank

Re: Predict Odds on IMMD rapid sellout [Robert] [ In reply to ]

Apr 13, 14 14:08

Post #7 of 76 (9848 views)

Robert wrote:

Well, yes, if you want to pick nits. ;)

-Robert

If I've learned anything about WTC/online registrations/policies - picking nits is the order of the day.

Any more opinions?

===================================
I'll tell you all right now, my seat is too low, I'm not aero and I carry too much fluid on the bike.

Re: Predict Odds on IMMD rapid sellout [RunFatboyRun] [ In reply to ]

Apr 13, 14 14:20

Post #8 of 76 (9823 views)

Hedge your bet - take the $150 refund for IMMT and apply it to the IMMD. $450 difference but you're guaranteed entry and having your fam there.

Re: Predict Odds on IMMD rapid sellout [RunFatboyRun] [ In reply to ]

Apr 13, 14 14:22

Post #9 of 76 (9820 views)

I would be very surprise if it sells out this year, unless their definition of sell out is 1500. Most people have already committed to a Ironman this year. Next year might be a different story. What they might do is wait until a certain date and declare a sell out even though it really hasn't sold out.

__________________________________________________________________________
My marathon PR is "under three, high twos. I had a two hour and fifty-something."

Re: Predict Odds on IMMD rapid sellout [zoom] [ In reply to ]

Apr 13, 14 17:33

Post #10 of 76 (9695 views)

I think it will sell out within one week: 1) precedent for inaugural IM's selling out in recent years; 2) convenient to under-served market in Mid-Atlantic area in a location that many can drive to; and 3) robust marketing by WTC offering early entry to Legacy, AWA, and TriClubs might create the sense of high demand.

Last edited by: Lazy Eric: Apr 13, 14 17:34

Re: Predict Odds on IMMD rapid sellout [RunFatboyRun] [ In reply to ]

Apr 13, 14 18:22

Post #11 of 76 (9622 views)

I think it'll sell out within 10 days.

1) people will change events like Princeton 70.3

2) people will be doing both IMLP and Maryland

3) All World Athletes (those who got ranked last year) get to register 2 days before

4) those who love the Eagleman won't miss the opportunity doing a full.

5) those who don't get picked in the Kona lottery on 4/15 might jump on
6) new IM race hype
7) only other open fulls is a hot Louisville or a cold Lake Tahoe

Nothing scientific here. Just some thoughts making me think it'll fill fast

Ironman Foundation spots will probably be up for a month. So you wouldn't be throwing money away entirely if you wait, and general entry fills.

Re: Predict Odds on IMMD rapid sellout [exerciseaddict] [ In reply to ]

Apr 13, 14 18:47

Post #12 of 76 (9576 views)

It will certainly be interesting given the short notice and IM Choo issues - best wishes to those looking to go!

Re: Predict Odds on IMMD rapid sellout [Fruitcake] [ In reply to ]

Apr 13, 14 19:03

Post #13 of 76 (9546 views)

Fruitcake wrote:

Hedge your bet - take the $150 refund for IMMT and apply it to the IMMD. $450 difference but you're guaranteed entry and having your fam there.

I was thinking it would be more like $550, since I wrongly assumed the refund was only $100 and there was an online processing fee of $50 or so. --- i think the unknowns that others are mentioning are enou to think it could happen even if unlikely. If the real difference is $450 that changes my odds theory even more.

This is why I should go back to poker.

===================================
I'll tell you all right now, my seat is too low, I'm not aero and I carry too much fluid on the bike.

Re: Predict Odds on IMMD rapid sellout [runido] [ In reply to ]

Apr 13, 14 19:09

Post #14 of 76 (9529 views)

runido wrote:

It will certainly be interesting given the short notice and IM Choo issues - best wishes to those looking to go!

By IMChoo issues i assume you mean the nearly instant sell out with all the club spots?

That's another thing. If I decide to do this and eliminate the gamble aspect I may even see if a friend in a club has a code he's not using but then are we both violating something?

===================================
I'll tell you all right now, my seat is too low, I'm not aero and I carry too much fluid on the bike.

Re: Predict Odds on IMMD rapid sellout [RunFatboyRun] [ In reply to ]

Apr 13, 14 19:46

Post #15 of 76 (9487 views)

Clubs also get priority registration for Md. I predict it sells out w/in 10 days. I predict there aren't as many slots available for the race as the standard WTC race, meaning the cap is less than the 2200-2700 they have at other races. Just a thought because of the previously in place permits w/ cities etc...

To the OP...don't forget to add in the active.com processing fee, it's not just the $600 to WTC to register for the race.

Re: Predict Odds on IMMD rapid sellout [RunFatboyRun] [ In reply to ]

Apr 14, 14 3:47

Post #16 of 76 (9383 views)

I'm thinking it will sell out before 10 days but maybe not within hours. A lot of folks around here signed up for IM Choo but I know a few folks who are doing IMTX and are thinking heavily about signing up for it since they can take that base into that one. I'm on the fence even though I really don't like IMs but it's so close and convenient from a training thru the summer standpoint.

Re: Predict Odds on IMMD rapid sellout [exerciseaddict] [ In reply to ]

Apr 14, 14 4:02

Post #17 of 76 (9367 views)

exerciseaddict wrote:

I think it'll sell out within 10 days.

1) people will change events like Princeton 70.3

2) people will be doing both IMLP and Maryland

3) All World Athletes (those who got ranked last year) get to register 2 days before

4) those who love the Eagleman won't miss the opportunity doing a full.

5) those who don't get picked in the Kona lottery on 4/15 might jump on
6) new IM race hype
7) only other open fulls is a hot Louisville or a cold Lake Tahoe

Nothing scientific here. Just some thoughts making me think it'll fill fast

Ironman Foundation spots will probably be up for a month. So you wouldn't be throwing money away entirely if you wait, and general entry fills.

And now we can add hot and boring Maryland. I predict no sell out at all. Just like I predicted Princeton. Oh....wait....I always underestimate the MDOT magnet. But seriously, I will be stunned if this sells out. I wonder what this does for Challenge AC next year.

Re: Predict Odds on IMMD rapid sellout [RunFatboyRun] [ In reply to ]

Apr 14, 14 6:11

Post #18 of 76 (9249 views)

I predict a 24 hour sellout or faster. Huge population within 500 miles of there. Good time of year. Flat and fast course. Still plenty of time to start training. Now that spring is here, many people get the itch to do an ironman but nothing is available but Louisville or non-IM (and Louisville has such a "hot" stigma attached to it, many avoid it unless it is a last resort).

I think this will effect final Louisville numbers more than anything else. I predict their lowest count in years.

Re: Predict Odds on IMMD rapid sellout [exerciseaddict] [ In reply to ]

Apr 14, 14 6:35

Post #19 of 76 (9197 views)

exerciseaddict wrote:

I think it'll sell out within 10 days.

1) people will change events like Princeton 70.3

Nothing scientific here. Just some thoughts making me think it'll fill fast

Ironman Foundation spots will probably be up for a month. So you wouldn't be throwing money away entirely if you wait, and general entry fills.

What do you mean by this? The transfer rules do not apply when the race you are signed up for is a 70.3. Just to be clear, you can transfer "down" to a 70.3 but you can't transfer "up" to a 140.6

Also, the race must be open for at least 10 days before transfer can occur, so if you are banking on transfers contributing to a sellout, it won't happen "within 10 days".

Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

Re: Predict Odds on IMMD rapid sellout [RunFatboyRun] [ In reply to ]

Apr 14, 14 6:38

Post #20 of 76 (9192 views)

RunFatboyRun wrote:

Here's my dilemma.

Since I registered for IM Mont-Tremblant, family circumstances and potential job situations have changed. I would likely be doing the event without my family present. That's just not something I'm interested in. (First IM, one of those sad sack BoP transformation stories we all hate on NBC, etc etc....) if. I do MD, my wife and kids can 100% be there.

You don't need this info, other than to answer the question "why would anyone consider trading a gorgeous course/finish line like IMMT for the boring, crowded, middle-of-nothing IMMD?" (- I have family there in MD to stay with free.)

So a transfer seems like the smartest thing, all external factors considered. But the quandary is, I won't know if. I can transfer until registration has been open for ten days. If it sells out, forget it.

The cost of registering for it, getting $100 back from ImMT, not paying immt housing and staying free with family, means. I would still be economically ahead. But we're talking about a $500 waste if the race doesn't sell out.

I'm an odds guy. If I feel the odds of fast sell out are high, I'll register and cut my losses with the canceled race. But if the odds are low, I may take the chance for the cheap transfer.

So, slowtwitch analysts: do your predictions. Imnyc year one sold out instantly. Florida always does. This race is in a region full of triathletes. BUT the announcement is very close to race day, with people already committed to their IM races for the year, an anomaly due to the drama at TRi Columbia.

Game theorists? Gamblers? Economists? Freakonomists?

I love Mont Tremblant and want you to be there, However, as a triathlete, I respect your family more than any particular race in that you and I can only be triathletes if our families support the gig. Do what your family wants. If it is important for your family to be there, then I say bite the bullet and do Maryland and just register.

I am in a similar boat but in my case I am registered for both Texas and Whistler and my next Ironman will be number 25. My family cannot be in Texas but is planning the trip to Whistler. So I am in a similar dilemma. I hate dropping out of a race if I am physically able.

Re: Predict Odds on IMMD rapid sellout [RunFatboyRun] [ In reply to ]

Apr 14, 14 6:56

Post #21 of 76 (9162 views)

My bet is on the race not selling out within 10 days (unless the cap is ridiculously low, like around 1000 entrants). I have raced Eagleman and as many have mentioned, the course is rather blant. Its major selling points are the Kona slots, the quality of the competition, and some history.

IM Maryland, on the other hand, does not have these qualities. The fact that WTC is setting the entry price at a "bargain" $600 is a telling sign that they don't expect it to do well if the price is set any higher.

A couple of more signs:

- A lot less hype generated around this race. Just look at the number of views of related threads on Slowtwitch. The same goes with the discussion on our club website. There is a lot less discussion around this race compared to IM Chattanooga.

- As others have mentioned, most dedicated Ironman athletes have made their plans already. There are way too many races (70.3, non-WTC ironmans, WTC ironmans, etc.) around this time of the year to fit it in.

- The geographical location is also quite limited (not a well-known tourist destination, nothing interesting to do, middle of nowhere).

- Only 30 Kona slots, and a draft-fest.

Re: Predict Odds on IMMD rapid sellout [amaterasu] [ In reply to ]

Apr 14, 14 7:16

Post #22 of 76 (9129 views)

I was planning on doing Louisville although I had not registered yet, but since the drive from VA Beach is just short of three hours vice 10+ to Louisville.

My question is I can afford a new swim skin or a new wetsuit, most of my local races will be over 78 degrees, average Septemeber water temp in Cambridge is 74.5. Which should I go with? MOP Swimmer at best.

All I Wanted Was A Pepsi, Just One Pepsi

Team Zoot, Team Zoot Mid-Atlantic

Re: Predict Odds on IMMD rapid sellout [SpicedRum] [ In reply to ]

Apr 14, 14 7:58

Post #23 of 76 (9079 views)

SpicedRum wrote:

Clubs also get priority registration for Md. I predict it sells out w/in 10 days. I predict there aren't as many slots available for the race as the standard WTC race, meaning the cap is less than the 2200-2700 they have at other races. Just a thought because of the previously in place permits w/ cities etc...

To the OP...don't forget to add in the active.com processing fee, it's not just the $600 to WTC to register for the race.

I am in a club that put a lot of people in IMCHAT and I can tell you that there is little interest for Maryland in 2014. Next year might be a different story.

Re: Predict Odds on IMMD rapid sellout [Billabong] [ In reply to ]

Apr 14, 14 8:02

Post #24 of 76 (9072 views)

Billabong wrote:

I was planning on doing Louisville although I had not registered yet, but since the drive from VA Beach is just short of three hours vice 10+ to Louisville.

My question is I can afford a new swim skin or a new wetsuit, most of my local races will be over 78 degrees, average Septemeber water temp in Cambridge is 74.5. Which should I go with? MOP Swimmer at best.

Really wetsuit swim...I was thinking it would be non-wetsuit for sure. That makes my crappy swim not so bad.

Re: Predict Odds on IMMD rapid sellout [HuffNPuff] [ In reply to ]

Apr 14, 14 8:12

Post #25 of 76 (9062 views)

HuffNPuff wrote:

SpicedRum wrote:

Clubs also get priority registration for Md. I predict it sells out w/in 10 days. I predict there aren't as many slots available for the race as the standard WTC race, meaning the cap is less than the 2200-2700 they have at other races. Just a thought because of the previously in place permits w/ cities etc...

To the OP...don't forget to add in the active.com processing fee, it's not just the $600 to WTC to register for the race.

I am in a club that put a lot of people in IMCHAT and I can tell you that there is little interest for Maryland in 2014. Next year might be a different story.

That would make sense. If a good portion of your club is signed up for Chattanooga, then interest for an IM one week earlier should be low.

Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

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