This'll be interesting. I hope he can come back to something approaching where he was.

hmmm. A two year layoff. I wonder if there isn't something under the radar that is about to expire.

Go back to your cave/bridge

Interesting that he's swimming the 50/100 free and 50/100 fly rather than his customary 200/400 events that he did so well in, although the 100 fly was one of the events he's won 3 oly in a row now. Guess he feels that he does not have the endurance to do well at the longer stuff yet. I'll bet that we'll see him in 2 or 3 individual events and 2 or 3 relays in Rio, and that he will just increase his lead as the leading medal winner in oly history:)

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Sure, except he will have been retired for less than 2 years. So much for that theory.

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It would be silly of him to jeopardize his reputation and swimming history for a potential comeback, especially seeing as what happened to LA. I don't buy your line of thinking

Honestly, he could swim whatever the hell he wants and be competitive, but at this point I don't think he would want to go through the pain and suffering necessary to train for the 400IM. I wouldn't be surprised to see him jump into some breaststroke events just to see what he can do.

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Pretty sure about a year ago he said something to the effect that he has not stopped training and always was intending on go back, probably just a suggestion by his marketing department to drive up some hype around his "comeback" when he never really stopped. Granted i am sure he has not been hammering like crazy the last two years but i don't think he just let himself go.

According to the article he's been back training since the fall, so it sounds like he took about a year off. Whether that means no swimming at all, or just a little bit of splashing around between other commitments, I'm not sure.

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Based on his instagram I saw a lot of golf, tropical vacations with his boys, charity events and chilling with his dogs and family this past yr. At one point he looked a little beefy, but I am sure he will get himself in shape when he needs to.

If you watched The Haney Project on the Golf Channel, it was very clear that he was not formally training. "Overweight" (admittedly a relative term) and more than a few times, IMO, hungover. oh, and playing a lot of golf. He seemed to be enjoying life.

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Judging from some of the replies here my guess is that most Joe Schmoes like us can't comprehend the crushing pressure that comes from being in competition. Everything they do, eat, blink, whatever is critiqued and used as an example of under-performing. Retire and that's removed, and life can be more normal. Doesn't seem too unreasonable.

I thought he was making a comeback as a Subway spokesman.

Best ever so if anyone can comeback to the top after 'retiring' it would have to be him. Plenty have tried and failed. Most recently Thorpedo had a go for London but 'it' just wasn't there anymore. Always a shame to see a great athlete make a comeback and get dusted and sent packing. Much prefer to remember them at their best.

I'm not at all surprised. Didn't he reenter the drug testing program about six months ago? Isn't that the required time?
He's still plenty young enough to be at a top level. Training for sprints will certainly be easier than longer events.
The break may we've him well.

Why would anybody be surprised he is going to the sprints? The thought process is simple, he is counting on another 3 medals at the 2016 Olympics, the 4x100 free relay, 4x200 free relay and 4x100 med relay. With some of the swimmers coming up he doesn't want to loose he legacy by getting destroyed in some of the events he became famous for such as the 400 IM.

If I had to bet his schedule at the 2016 Olympic trials will be the 100 free, 200 free, 100 fly and 200 IM. With him making the relay in the 100 free, and top 2 in the other 3 events.

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I'm not surprised he's going to the sprints for his first meet back, he needs to test himself and get a benchmark as to where he is in training. However, I would be surprised if he stays with the 100 free. We're all just guessing, but there are so many guys in the 100, and chances are his top end speed in 2016 won't be as good as it was in 2008 or 2012. He'll be 31 or 32 by the time Rio comes around.

I think he might go back to the 400IM if he feels like his training is going the way it should, given his dominance in that event and the fact that he didn't do well in London in that event (I think he was sick that day, IIRC). He "shouldn't" have any trouble qualifying.

There are a couple of fast and young, Japanese swimmers in the 400IM now. So their progression might play a role in Phelps' decision process.

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These UBER talented swimmers are in a different world genetically. Not sure if he will be as dominant but if he puts in serious time, I predict he will medal in multiple events again. I swam last week with a very heavy two time olympic medalist and he cranked out a 1:19 for a 150 freestyle at the end of a set. Genes and feel for the water trump a lot in the pool...I can't wait to see how this plays out.

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If we look at other swimmers who swam into their 30's (Gary Hall Jr, Anthony Ervin and Dana Torres) we see swimmers can still have some serious front end speed. The best part of moving to the sprints is he can become basically just a relay swimmer at the Olympics and maybe one or two other events. I hope I am wrong and he goes for the 400 IM and goes under 4:10 but I just don't see him putting in that type of training

My thoughts on this:
1. He's obviously an insane talent and his fitness is only one factor for him. He was in terrible shape in 2011 and still kicked a lot of ass. I wouldn't be surprised to see his swim competitively in Mesa despite his two year layoff.
2. The US has Shields and Luchsinger but desperately needs a gold-medal butterflyer. This is especially true in the 200 fly. Phelps is just about the only guy in the world who can hang with LeClos. It will be interesting to see if Phelps swims the 2 fly.
3. The US really needs Phelps of the 4x100 (they're in better shape in the 4x200). Phelps has the potential to regularly split sub 48 (from a relay start) when he's in shape. This is a rare commodity and would make the US odds-on favorites in this event again, IMO.
4. I highly doubt that Phelps will concentrate on the 50.
5. 200 IM is going to be deeeeeeep for the US. At least three gold medal posibilities.
6. Phelps is the only swimmer most people know, this is awesome for the sport from that perspective.
7. I wouldn't bet against more gold for Phelps in Rio. No one in history has ever been a better big meet swimmer.
8. No. More. Debbie. Phelps. Please.

In those folks cases though, weren't they always pure sprinters? I think it's a little different for a middle distance guy to move down to the sprints in his 30's.

If anyone can do it, Phelps can. It is risky though, and I'm not sure he would want to come back just to swim the #2 leg on the 4x100 and 4x200 relays? To swim on the medley relay, you pretty much have to win trials, his only shot there is the 100 fly (which he can do, of course). He doesn't quite have the speed in the 100 free to be top 2 (at least not historically, but if he focuses on the 100, who knows...)

His real strength is fly and IM. I think he will gravitate back to those, if he really wants more medals. If he dedicates himself, he's pretty much a lock to make the team for the IMs. It's just a matter of how much pain and suffering he still is willing to put up with.

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>It would be silly of him to jeopardize his reputation and swimming history for a potential comeback,

There is absolutely nothing that can jeopardize his reputation and swimming history. (short of a "reasoned decision")

I loved all the nonsense during the London games about how Phelps had "lost his edge," and Slowtwitch age groupers were criticizing his training work ethic.

I'm all for it. It's a joy to watch him swim. I'ts OK if he loses more often. That's life, and he seems to have developed a mature, healthy attitude toward competition and life. Unlike some other unbeatable prodigies.

Exactly. Just like Thorpe's reputation wasn't diminished by his attempted comeback, it didn't diminish in my eyes anything about how great he was in his prime. Hell, Janet Evans got back in the water at over 40. She wasn't even close to her best, but still respectable. Doesn't change a damned thing about what she did. I'd like to see the Olympians, especially the great ones, compete as long as they want, regardless of how their times slip as they age.

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I find 32 x 100's to be a lot easier than 5 x 50's on 5 minutes. If you can recruit fast twitch fibers, man, those sets just kill you.

The reason D guys think sprint workouts are easy is because they suck at them.