Source?

They said it on the broadcast of the race

 
Ahh ok. I hadn't read it anywhere, and whilst yes she does meet the nomination criteria ( 2 WTS Podia, 1 needing to be a GF in 2014/15) I hadn't read it in the press. The nomination criteria wasn't even being made public until April but obviously someone forgot to tell the commentators. :)

They are not a lock at all, this will be a very tough team to make. If any of those three have a bad race at the qualifier, someone like Lindsey Jerdonek or Kaitlin Donner could snag one of the spots. It is crazy, because all three are medal contenders and maybe even medal favorites, and they will probably be the team, but it is not a guarantee.

Personally I think it's way too early to be choosing for the Olympic team.

Paula Findlay secured her spot for 2012 really early and look what happened to her. I really like her but someone else should have been chosen when it was clear she was hurt.

This is where the domestique debate comes into play I think. If you give Gwen a domestique, that is the closest you can possibly get to a guaranteed gold medal. Of course she very well may not need it, but Edmonton was proof that it's nice to have. On the other hand, you also have the somewhat reasonable chance of a podium sweep for the USA. I don't know if there's an athlete who would make a good choice for an as-needed domestique that's also capable of running herself onto the podium. That might be the ideal scenario, tell athlete #3 "you can race for yourself unless Gwen gets into trouble, then take care of her." Then we hope Gwen gets to sit on the Lisa Norden train and then 3 of our girls run to the podium after all.

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IG: idking90

Sorry to tell this... but in Auckland...

Jenkins, Stanford, Stimpson, Jackson, Spirig, the real Norden, Haug were missing.

If you based decision on the last 2 years... you are calling for failure. The bike was 1:30 slower this year. You can say the Jorgensen is improving, but the reallity might be, yes she is improving but it might not be enough in the future.

A podium sweep might also come from GB (if healthy).

Are we (Americans) assuming that 3 Olympic slots will be available for both the men's & women's teams. Dangerous to do so as first "our" athletes have to race to secure the maximum number of qualifying slots through ITU. "We" could get into a scenario where US men & women have to race their brains out to get the 3 qualifying slots into the Games (& be toasted by the time Rio hits; see Hunter Kemper). Athletes are not only racing for themselves, but also for their countries ability to secure the maximum number of slots available.

What NZ has done with its qualification system now means Andrea could help her teammates secure an additional slot or two (in addition to her own performances). She's also secured her funding through to the Games via Sport NZ.

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#swimmingmatters
Laugh hard. Run fast. Be kind.
The Doctor (#12)

Big disclaimer up front: Stanford hasn't been healthy since late 2013, and she did at the time seem to b capable of going head to head with Gwen.
Gwen needs a certain set of conditions to win (gap at T2 under X seconds. I don't know what x is, and I imagine it wouldn't be more than 60. Abu Dhabi wasn't the norm to pull back a minute over a sprint). If those conditions are met, she's a virtual certainty (perhaps barring a healthy Stanford)
Many of the other women, both those you listed and the other USA women, can win from a greater variety of conditions, but none are as certain in any given set of conditions to win as Gwen appears to be in her chosen set.
I don't think a USA sweep is imminent, as you're right; a number of the top women have been away or off form for a few years. There's also no guarantee they can get back to that form, though.

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IG: idking90

Definitely assuming three for the women. The guys are obviously a much longer shot. Glad to see Kanute hold on for a top 10 - we need more of those!

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

I think it's all but safe to assume the USA will have 3 women's slots.
NF of the winner of each continental champs gets 1 spot.
NF for top 3 at Rio test event get a spot.
The rest go by points, with up to 8 countries receiving 3 spots, so it's effectively how high your third best athlete is helps determine if you get a third spot.
USA currently has women #1, 3, 6, 11, 21, 42, 52, 65...
I think they'll be ok barring any disastrous results from their top 4 or 5.
NZL's third athlete is 34th. GBR's (Stanford is missing because no results) is 44th. CAN's is 40th. AUS's is 30th.

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IG: idking90

Andrea is no Paula. That's the difference. A lot more years in those legs.

Yes, good point, much more mature and seasoned but I still think it's early to make a selection.

Of course a good thing about it is that Andrea can make long range plans now and not have to extend herself to qualify closer to the event.

 
And I think that is the key, you get to dictate your own build rather than dictated to by qualification. Andrea knows what is best for her, she's been in the game a long time now so she can have the build she needs. Last year was an arse for her as a result of Laurent's health scare, Commonwealths she wasn't ready, we saw that in the back end of the year with her results when she did come right.

The Rio course suits her style and could be the perfect swan-song. And she now has 15 months to focus on it. We'll see.

I agree, Gwen just keeps getting lucky... 7 races in a row.

Seriously I don't think there will be a podium sweep by anyone. But if it is going to happen it is going to be the US. "The bike was slower this year" is faulty analysis. The conditions were different. You know what else was slower than last year: the men's race. Gomez and Brownlee were 1:04:17 last year and they were 1:05:13 this year (56 seconds slower). Groff was 1:12:12 last year and 1:13:26 this year (74 seconds slower). Hewett was 1:12:05 and 1:12:44 (39 seconds slower). Gwen was 1:14:54 last year 1:12:43 this year - 131 seconds faster. Or take a look at the women Gwen rode with last year. Ueda for example. They rode together last year and this year Gwen put 3 minutes on her.

If you want to argue that Gwen isn't faster then I have a bridge I would like to sell you.

Is this still the criteria for the 3rd spot? Basically the highest ranked 3rd athlete for 8 countries (I understand the continental cup criteria too, but won't it amount to the same thing?).

Anyhow, the US men's 3rd guy is Shoemaker @ 40th

Australia, Spain, France, GBR are currently the only countries whose 3rd guy is higher than Shoemaker.

Haug was racing in Auckland. She dropped out of the bike on the shortland st hill (the biggest hill) right in front of me. She seemed to possibly be having trouble with her gears as she was by herself at the time and seemed to be a in a pretty big gear (unless you meant the "real Norden" and the "real Haug" were missing). You might also say that about Paula Findlay - she certainly seems to be carrying much more weight (as cruel as that sounds - it appears to be the reality) than she was when she was winning lots of races.

Yea, it more or less amounts to the best #3 athlete per country is how they get divvied up. The continental champs and top 3 at Rio will all likely be in the top 10-20 of the rankings anyway.
Take a look on ITU's site of the Olympic simulation. It assumes the continental champs and top 3 finishers at Rio test event, but that's still a good explanation how it works. It also shows how dominant USA women are right now, as our 4th athlete is ranked a lot higher than most other countries' first.

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IG: idking90

Haug wasn't impressive at Abu Dhabi. I think a lot of girls are not in their best shape right now. Paula might have been lightly injured. She was removed on the Abu Dhabi start list 2 weeks prior the event.

Reality is Rio Test event and Chicago GF are the only races counting this year for them. If you talk to athlete who were injured for a long time, it's hard for them to believe that they can be top shape from Mars to September. The world title seems to be secondary this year. Rio not being a WTS has a huge influence effect on the circuit. I think half of the girls in Auckland didn't race at Abu Dhabi.

Since Rio is going to be a hilly race, NFs didn't want to give olympic selection on a flat race.

From my insider, who did the first pack in 2014 and 2015, that except Norden, no one was pushing as hard as last year. I still believe Jorgensen is doing progress, but it's impossible to say that she won't be dropped in the future.

Laurent Vidal did an interesting text on the subject for us
http://www.trimes.org/...cs-and-auckland-wts/

Which list are you looking at (there are like 5)? Isn't this the right list to use for Rio:

http://www.triathlon.org/...c_qualification/male

Kanute is the 3rd American at 25th. I think the American men are looking a whole lot better today than a year ago for 3 slots. The UK and Spain dominate and then I think it's a scrap for the other 6 3-slotters between a whole bunch of countries including, the US, Australia, Portugal, France, Russia, NZ, RSA and Germany. Speaking of Germany, what has happened to its program? It seems like just yesterday Frodeno won the gold in Beijing.

I might be wrong but Gwen Crashed last year in the first hill. The problem with gwen and sometimes people assumed that she is not fast enough on the bike but the really is more that she is really affected by cold water. Her activation is slower in this situation.

For the others girls, it didn't go as hard as last year on the bike. I got the confirmation from one of the girls is the FP.
It's due to the absence of the best girls on bike like Samuels, Jackson (hills) ans Stimpson. Remember, Stimpson and the NZ girls were constantly attacking.

Remember how strong Stimpson is strong on the bike. She won Kitzbuhel. The best talent on bike weren't present this year. And some girls could have been more aggressive.

Your comparaison with the men is also doubtable. With Abu Dhabi a lot of european athletes didn't want to race in Oceanic. Last year, pressure were different with Davison or Murray (missing this year). Look at the front group, it was a lot of new names.

With 10 races this year. The field is just different.

For sure, Gwen is going in the right direction and she deserves the credit for this win but the big problem right now is the fact that a lot of talent are missing. She still haven't race the actual olympic champion (Nicola Spirig) or beat Non Stanford at her best form.

Right now the US is solid in 3 slots for men and women. There are actually 5 men "taking up space" in qualifier well ahead of other countries, the US is actually 4th in 3-slot countries, as of today. The US also has a good many men in the Top 125, which translates to more World Cup and WTS starting spots and continuing to rack up points.

As someone said continental cups count, this is incorrect, they do not in Rio slot allocation, Continental Champs do, but not cup races, only big league races. They count for athletes to be in a position to take a slot, but not for a country allocation.

The Rio test event is a hilly bike and will equalize a bit for strong swimmer-cyclists but everyone will be there, so it is unlikely that a US male will be 8th, also at Chicago, should be a deep field. So I would guess a free for all in a Olympic Trials qualifier in March-May 2016 for the Men. For the Women, the three slots could be gone by Chicago, based upon recent performances. Quite frankly, the way Gwen rides, a tough bike course like Rio might eat her up, but Chicago will suit her perfectly. The she has a year to figure the bike out.

Ehh whatever dude. Gwen isn't perfect but she isn't the one with a major problem right now. Girls saying things like "we didn't push" is bs and in fact shows just how scared of Gwen everyone is.

I think the US will only award up to 2 spots at Rio test event or Rio test event + Chicago. This would leave 1 spot for a race in spring 2016.

In any case I think it is a crap shoot who amongst the men (US) go and if the men get 3 spots. The women, I predict, are represented by Gwen, Zafares, and a "surprise." In usual US olympic trials fashion there will be heartbreak over missing a spot on the team. I'm predicting that this time around it will be London olympic 4th place finisher Sarah True on the outside looking in while an upstart or a long shot has the race of her life at the right time to sneak on the team.