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Olympic Performance vs World Records
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As I watched the Olympic track events this year, I kept thinking, "Wow! They are going so slow!" Much faster than anything I could throw down, of course, but only two World Records were broken and only one more (maybe two) were even threatened. Was it a slow track? Was it the lack of the ever-competitive Russians? Was it because of why the Russians were largely dis-included? Were prelims faster than normal or less rest prior to finals?

Judging only against World Record times (and controlling for nothing), I got the image below. I am sure there is some correction you could include for difference between distances and "percent of World Record" is not a perfect measure. But there are some interesting points in this. I included the marathons for a point of comparison even though they weren't run on the track; they actually jibe with the race walks fairly well.

Sprints were remarkably consistent...until you look at the open 400 races: men significantly faster, women significantly slower. The relays all make some reasonable sense. The American women have a lot of 100m depth right now and had something to prove after they were given a Mulligan.

Big question: What was going on during the 1500s? Both were paced somewhere between NCAA D2 and D3. This, to me, smacks of something other than just strategic racing. Men's 5k seems to have suffered from strategic running, but was on par with the 10k...and both in the ball park with the walks and marathons.

Women's 3k steeple was the other race that really threatened the WR and it, along with the unbelievable women's 10k, seems to belie any trend you could suggest for decreasing returns for being on the track longer.



All of the very fast events were run in about the first third of the events, but not all of the events in that early group were comparatively fast, so it's hard to say that something like the weather was a direct factor. The women's 10k was the first medal event, but the men's 10k was the very next day. There may be a correlation to distance running in the morning.

A side point not shown on the plot: In three of the four events closest to (or past) WR pace (M 400, W 4x100, & W 3k Steeple), the pace of the silver medalist was within one standard deviation of the mean percent difference across all events. You have to look down to 4th place in the women's 10k to get back within that same one standard deviation.

ETA: "% Difference" isn't quite the correct label for the chart. It's more "Fractional Difference", i.e. 0.02 is 2%.
Last edited by: Koz: Aug 22, 16 15:15
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Re: Olympic Performance vs World Records [Koz] [ In reply to ]
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Multiple events stacked on each other (eg 100, 200, 4x100, plus heats) might not be best for WRs. Pressure to get into finals means often too much exertion in heats. Longer runs often done tactically. Hard to time ideal conditions with Olympics once per four years (eg lots of rain and wind in Rio). Sleeping in a strange place for extended period with lots of Olympic excitement, TV interviews etc. There must be other reasons besides.
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Re: Olympic Performance vs World Records [Koz] [ In reply to ]
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One big difference in the races from the 1500 and up is that there are no pacers in the Olympics.

My hunch is that most of the world records in those events were set in paced events.
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Re: Olympic Performance vs World Records [Koz] [ In reply to ]
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You are racing to win the Gold not to run fast. If you look at 2012, you will see some events are much slower than 2016, some faster. It just depends on strategy in the race.

You can look at Mo Farah's races in the 5/10k, won both in a sprint finish by about .5 second over silver in 2012/2016. However, the 2016 races were significantly faster. It is just how it plays out. The outlier were the women 5/10k which were mind boggling.


The Men's 100/200s were slow, and the athletes attributed this to the shorter rest between semi/finals to accomodate NBC broadcast schedule.

and the men's 400 just kicked @ass.


https://en.wikipedia.org/...2012_Summer_Olympics
https://en.wikipedia.org/...2016_Summer_Olympics
Last edited by: vertical_doug: Aug 23, 16 4:25
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Re: Olympic Performance vs World Records [Koz] [ In reply to ]
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Bigger $$ rewards for breaking WR at non-Olympic races.
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Re: Olympic Performance vs World Records [Koz] [ In reply to ]
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You went to a lot of trouble for an answer that is so well known. They are racing to win gold medals. Tactics.

On the flip side, watch the world record race for the mile. They have four pace setters I think.
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Re: Olympic Performance vs World Records [Jason80134] [ In reply to ]
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Jason80134 wrote:
You went to a lot of trouble for an answer that is so well known. They are racing to win gold medals. Tactics.

On the flip side, watch the world record race for the mile. They have four pace setters I think.

This is totally right. I was surprised to see the question. Olympic and major championship distance events have almost always been sit and kick races in some form. The financial windfall of an Olympic or major championship medal for these guys is unreal, going out and trying to blister a 1500 at the risk of blowing up and not winning a medal is a very large risk to take.
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Re: Olympic Performance vs World Records [vertical_doug] [ In reply to ]
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Yup. There is absolutely room in any race 800m and up to be tactical (maybe even 400m). Tactics perfectly explains why preliminary heats are relatively slow. Lack of recovery could impact everything up through 5k, as they all had at least one preliminary/semifinal heat.

To say that no one wants to set a world record at the Olympics is a bit nonsensical to me, but that some of the races might need a rabbit to do it makes perfect sense.

Regardless of distance, I do not expect the majority of races to be WR pace; we've gone past the 1988 Olympics and I don't see racing going back to that craziness. What I would expect is some consistency with a nice statistical variation. There should be a few WR-setting performances. I would not have picked those particular events in which it happened or was threatened, but the quantity is about right.

With the cross-over of athletes between events and within sporting enclaves, there should be some consistency between "distance families." A lot of 100 and 400 athletes also run the 200 at some point within the year. A lot of 5k and marathon athletes also run the 10k at some point within the year. There's a bit of cross-over, not much in elite ranks, between 800 and 1500, and admittedly quite a bit less going either side of those two. The 1500 absolutely could stand alone, but seeing both the men's and women's races stand as such complete statistical outliers is surprising to me. Tactics would explain a 2-4% decrease. Short recovery would explain a similar decrease. Would 4% + 4% = 12%? Not sure I buy that. Makhloufi doubled in the 800 and 1500...so, was he the outlier that he got silver...in both? All of the major players in the 1500 have PRs at or below 3:31.

The women's 10k is a ludicrous statistical outlier. I think a majority of the endurance sports world kind of expects that race to pop up in conversation again at some point in the future. That race was not tactical.

I think I have to pull in a lot more data to really settle my brain on this.
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Re: Olympic Performance vs World Records [pvolb] [ In reply to ]
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pvolb wrote:
Jason80134 wrote:
You went to a lot of trouble for an answer that is so well known. They are racing to win gold medals. Tactics.

On the flip side, watch the world record race for the mile. They have four pace setters I think.


This is totally right. I was surprised to see the question. Olympic and major championship distance events have almost always been sit and kick races in some form. The financial windfall of an Olympic or major championship medal for these guys is unreal, going out and trying to blister a 1500 at the risk of blowing up and not winning a medal is a very large risk to take.

These athletes all see each other in race after race during the year and, you're right, all of the races are sit and kick (with occasional mid-race surges). That's why there is very little variation year after year as to who wins: it all comes down to a tired 150-400m sprint. Every time. Once a runner develops that winning sprint, they win for the next half decade or more. Which means that the athletes who consistently don't medal are not racing tactically; they're racing like lemmings.

And I think Centrowicz won as much or more due to positioning tactics than due to pacing tactics. Being in front, he got to choose his line for his kick from 400 to 300 to go and for his sprint from 300 to 100. His drift out from the rail with 100m to go was just perfect.
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Re: Olympic Performance vs World Records [Koz] [ In reply to ]
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Koz wrote:
Yup. There is absolutely room in any race 800m and up to be tactical (maybe even 400m). Tactics perfectly explains why preliminary heats are relatively slow. Lack of recovery could impact everything up through 5k, as they all had at least one preliminary/semifinal heat.

To say that no one wants to set a world record at the Olympics is a bit nonsensical to me, but that some of the races might need a rabbit to do it makes perfect sense.
see racing going back to that craziness. What I would expect is some consistency with a nice statistical variation. There should be a few WR-setting performances. I would not have picked those particular events in which it happened or was threatened, but the quantity is about right.


For starters, look how much slower the Olympic Marathon is vs the majors. This is purely lack of a rabbit and tactics.

Women's 1500- 2012 gold is vacant (doper) but if you compare silver and bronze times from 2012 vs 2016, these are practically identical. 4:10.xx It is their 3rd race in about 6 days, so slightly tired, slightly tactics.

Men's 1500 is more of lack of courage of the other runners. Centro also spoke about doing a ton of speed work for the last lap over the past month for training.

If the men's 400m record could be set on the track, it was not a slow track. The men's 400 was probably the pick of the Olympics for both quality coming in and results. This year's bronze was good enough for Gold in 2012.

Castor was probably capable of going out and running 56/57 in the 800 to make a run for the record, but she has enough controversy without throwing gas on the fire.

Rudisha is not in the same shape as he was in London, so the men's 800 is out of bounds too. The men's sprints outside of Bolt seemed weak, and the women's sprints were better fields. Particularly in the 200.
Last edited by: vertical_doug: Aug 23, 16 15:51
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Re: Olympic Performance vs World Records [vertical_doug] [ In reply to ]
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vertical_doug wrote:
For starters, look how much slower the Olympic Marathon is vs the majors. This is purely lack of a rabbit and tactics.

Women's 1500- 2012 gold is vacant (doper) but if you compare silver and bronze times from 2012 vs 2016, these are practically identical. 4:10.xx It is their 3rd race in about 6 days, so slightly tired, slightly tactics.

Men's 1500 is more of lack of courage of the other runners. Centro also spoke about doing a ton of speed work for the last lap over the past month for training.

If the men's 400m record could be set on the track, it was not a slow track. The men's 400 was probably the pick of the Olympics for both quality coming in and results. This year's bronze was good enough for Gold in 2012.

Castor was probably capable of going out and running 56/57 in the 800 to make a run for the record, but she has enough controversy without throwing gas on the fire.

Rudisha is not in the same shape as he was in London, so the men's 800 is out of bounds too. The men's sprints outside of Bolt seemed weak, and the women's sprints were better fields. Particularly in the 200.

Marathon was 4 minutes out from the year's fastest and was faster than Boston this year. It's not going to be on the same scale as London or Berlin, which are flat, fast, and well-known courses, but that's not a bad pace.

You're right the women's 1500 is kind of typical for the last few Olympics...and the men's isn't too far off. Just seems weird to me that that race sticks out so far from the others.

The whole sprint field seemed to not show up. Even Bolt seemed off. He had a season bests in both 100 and 200, but was 0.23 and 0.59 off of his best times...that's an eternity in elite sprinting! And he still destroyed the rest of the field

I agree on Castor, but Rudisha and the top six in the 800 all ran season best performances with PRs by Murphy and Makhloufi (also national record). So, maybe I'm wrong in calling the Olympics slow. Maybe it's the whole year. And I still reserve that comparison to the WR may not be the best measure.
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